china: modeling trade scenarios for forest and forest products steven northway and gary bull 20...
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China: Modeling Trade Scenarios for Forest and Forest Products
Steven Northway and Gary Bull20 September 2006
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
China’s State Forest Administration FEDRC , Peking University, Forest Trends, Rights and Resources Group (RRG) and the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Towards a Sustainable Chinese Forest Sector:Reforming Trade and Strengthening Domestic Policy
Sponsors and Conference Title
Overview
• Rationale for project
• Project objectives
• Data acquisition
• Model development
• Results
Rationale
• Dramatic rise in imports of forest products and logs (Ms. Canby’s presentation).
• The world became aware that China is now a global player in the consumption, production and trade in forest products.
• China’s strategic direction will be influenced by its own forest management, social and industrial policies.
Objective
• To develop a modeling tool that allows us to explore scenarios that are relevant to public policy for China and other countries.
Under the overall direction of Dr. Chris Barr at CIFOR, we examined scenarios in China and Indonesia.
Date sources
• Chinese State Forestry Administration inventory reports
• International Forestry Review 2004
• CIFOR studies
• FAO for global datasets
• Various other sources
Model development
• There are other trade models available but they are either costly, somewhat outdated or have some theoretical shortcomings.
• In model development we strived for:
TransparencyTransparencyCollaborationCollaborationFlexibleFlexibleEmbed forest estate modelEmbed forest estate modelParameterized easily Parameterized easily
Methodology
• Define the structure of the model through products and processes (e.g. sawlog to plywood)
Initial Intermediate FinalProducts Products Products
Forest by type Sawlogs,pulplogs,pulp Plywood, panelsRecycled pulp sawntimber, newsprintNon-wood fibre Paper and paperboard
Parameters
Manufacturing capacity and productionFibre source (e.g. forest by country by forest type)Consumption
We start by developing our assessment of the world’s production, manufacturing capacity, fibre sources and consumption
Then we analyze by country the industrial roundwood (IRW) historic development and trends
World IRW Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Mill
ion
m3 /y
ea
r
World IRW Production
% World IRW Production
Fraction of World IRW Production
0
0.10.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Frac
tion
Panel Ply Sawn Pulp
World Fibre Source
Fraction of World Fibre Furnish Source
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Frac
tion
WdPlp RecPap OthPlp
So, where does China fit into the global picture?
China’s in IRW Production
China as a Fraction of World Production
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Year
Frac
tion
Panel Sawn News Paper Pulp
China’s IRW Consumption
China as a Fraction of World Consumption
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
Frac
tion
Panel Ply Sawn News Paper
Fiber source – China’s Forest:
• Forest Type– Fast plantations– Slow plantations– Deciduous forest– Coniferous forest
• Forest Condition– Non-forest– Forest– High cost forest
Scenarios and Results
Scenarios : supply shocks1. China’s National Forest Protection Program (NFPP)
removed2. China’s plantation success3. Indonesia’s illegal logging
Preliminary Results• Forest self-sufficiency ?
China’s Three Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
Mill
ion
m3/
yr
.
Status Quo End NFPP Poor Plantation Growth
China’s Three Scenarios
China's IRW Consumption and Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year
Mill
ion
m3/
yr
.
IRW Consumption Status Quo End NFPP Poor Plantation Growth
Indonesia’s Scenarios
Indonesia's IRW Consumption and Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Mill
ion
m3/
yr
.
IRW Consump tion Status Quo End Illegal Logging
Concluding comments
• Trade models help us understand the worldwide implications of individual country’s forest, social and industrial policies.
• If China’s consumption grows as forecasted, there will be a challenge with finding the fibre domestically.
• If Indonesia implements an illegal logging ban their domestic consumption will absorb their production.