china, japan and korea trade in goods and … japan and korea trade in goods and approaches to...
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China, Japan and Korea Trade in Goods and Approaches to CJKFTA
National Academy of Economic Strategy Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
FENG Lei [email protected]
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Goods Trade: the Foundation of CJKFTA
General idea:Trade in goods is still the basis of the international economic and trade relations New issues of FTA: service trade, investment arrangements, competition
policies, environment, labor, Intellectual property and government procurement
Particularity of goods trade in CJKFTA Export market Advantage of manufacturing The advantage differences in manufacturing
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Changes of Interdependency
Changes of interdependence in goods trade among the three countries effect manufacturing complementary relationship and their attitude to CJKFTA. (Changes are as follows)
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China:Goods Exports to Japan and Korea
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To Japan:14%(1991)、20%(peak ratio,1996)、8%(bottom,2011) China’s goods exports increased by 26 times. (Exports to Japan rose by 14 times.) The dependency on Japan market went down. (Japan market became less important.)
To South Korea:3%(1991)、4%(2011) The dependency on Korea market went up slightly. (Exports to Korea increased by 39 times and Korea market became more important.)
China:Goods Exports to Japan and Korea
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China:Imports from Japan and Korea
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From Japan:16%(1991)、23%(peak,1994)、11%(bottom,2011) The import dependency on Japan market went down. China’s imports increased by 27 times and the imports
from Japan rose by 19 times. From Korea:2%(bottom,1991)、12%(peak, 2005)
、9%(2011) The dependency on Korea market is increasing. The imports volume from Korea rose by 147 times from U.S. $ 1.1 billion to U.S. $ 162.7 billion.
Japan was the leading import origin in1991, but in 2011, Korea had equal shares almost.
China:Imports from Japan and Korea
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Japan:exports to China and Korea
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Japan:exports to China and Korea
To China:3%(bottom,1991)、20%(peak,2011) The dependency on China is high. The exports volume increased by 2 times (18 times to
China) and China market is more and more important. To Korea:6%(1991)、8%(2011) The dependency on Korea rose slightly. The exports volume increased by 2 times (3 times to
Korea market)
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Japan: imports from China and Korea
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Japan: imports from China and Korea
From China:6%(1991)、21%(2011) The imports volume increased by 3 times(13 times
from China market). The imports dependency on China is increasing (more and more dependent on China’s goods)
From Korea:5%(1991)5%(2011) The imports volume increased by 3 times(3 times
from Korea market). The imports dependency kept flat.
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Korea: exports to China and Japan
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Korea: exports to China and Japan
To China:1%(1991)、24%(2011)
To Japan:17%(1991)、7%(2011)
Korea exports model:Japan-oriented(1991)to China-oriented(turning point : 1997-2001 after Asian Financial Crisis)
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Korea:imports from China and Japan
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Korea:imports from China and Japan
From China:4%(1991)、16%(2011)
From Japan:26%(1991)、13%(2011)
Import model: shift from mainly dependent on Japan to dependent on both China and Japan, and China
is slightly heavier.
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The changes of interdependency: China
China’s exports ratio: 17%(1991)decreased to 12%(2011)(-5%=-6%
Japan +1% Korea) China’s export dependency on Japan and Korea is decreasing.
China’s imports ratio : 18%(1991)increased to 20%(2011) (2%=-5% Japan+7% Korea) China’s import dependency on Japan and Korea is increasing.
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The changes of interdependency: Japan
Japan’s export ratio: 9%(1991)increased to 28%(2011)(19%=17%
China +2% Korea) Japan’s import ratio : 11%(1991)increased to 26%(2011)(15%=15%
China +0% Korea) Japan is more and more dependent on China and Korea
as trading partners. Japan’s dependency on China highly rose.
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The changes of interdependency: Korea
Korea’s export ratio: 18%(1991)climbed to 31%(2011)(13%=23%
China -10% Japan) Korea’s import ratio : 30%(1911)declined to 29%(2011)(-1%=12%
China-13% Japan)
China and Japan swapped their places for Korea’s imports and exports.
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The dependency movement
China’s goods trade with Japan(imports + exports) decreased China’s goods trade with Korea (imports + exports)increased Japan’s goods trade with China and Korea (imports +
exports)increased Korea’s trade with China(imports +exports)increased Korea’s trade with Japan(imports +exports)decreased
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Goods trade and GDP(in billion)
2011 GDP Goods trade
Ratio of goods trade of GDP
China 7298.1 3642.1 50% Japan 5869.5 1679.0 29% Korea 1116.2 1080.9 97% EU 17577.7 4474.4 25% NAFTA 17985.7 5291.2 29% Global average
69659.6 18217.0 26%
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Brief comment
Interdependency of goods trade The impact on manufacturing The influence to the attitude of CJKFTA
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CJKFTA、“10+3”、“10+6”
What is our goal? CKJFTA(quite difficult)(practical significance?) FTA including China, Japan and Korea(more space
and flexibility)(“10+3”,“10+6”) (even TPP,the USA’s wish to China)(Japan will join the negotiation.)
If the three countries participate in a FTA which is more open than CJKFTA, the practical significance of
CJKFTA will fade.
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CJKFTA
Uncertainty is the basic characteristics of the road to CJKFTA. the uncertainty on political willingness. Environmental uncertainty of global & regional economy.
(ongoing European debt crisis 、weak recovery of US economy, China’s rapid economic growth but troubled by trade frictions)
uncertainty on trade (different FTA strategy) Impact from FTA practices(“10+6”, TPP)
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From three “10+1” to one “10+3”
Three “10+1” China has sighed FTA with ASEAN,while Japan and
Korea have signed the framework of FTA with ASEAN
It is a practical road from three “10+1” to one “10+3”.
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“10+6”or TPP
A FTA framework with wide range : ASEAN + China, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zeala
nd and India Prospects of TPP: Dominated by the USA(return to Asia,making new
international economic and trade rules) Complicated and difficult Difficult to adapt
A FTA with more members and wide openness or just CJKFTA?
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Thanks!