China in the Global Food System

By Matthew Gaudreau, PhD Candidate, University of Waterloo

Supervisor: Dr. Jennifer Clapp, Canada Research Chair

Canada China Friendship Society

March 23rd, 2016

Objectives of this Talk

1) A discussion about history and change: a major differences between the food economy in China during the 1950s – 1970s, and the 1980/90s onward.

1) A brief sketch of the relationship between how food should be provided to citizens, the political climate of international relations, and changing impacts on the environment.

*A point about how ideas regarding food security/self-sufficiency/self-reliance are changing in the context of global

economic integration*

Self-Sufficiency Under Mao

• 1950s-1970s: Primary goal of producing domestically to spur modernization and national development – including in agriculture (自力更生).

• Success in grain production in the early/mid 1950s, and again (mostly) in 1960s and 1970s.

• Food still relatively scarce/not abundant.

• Great Leap Forward (大跃进): Tens of millions of deaths in 1959-1961 related to famine.

• From 1960, heightened isolation from major powers.

Environment and Production

• Organic fertilizers in the 1950s – 1970s. • Relatively closed system – compostable items and manure used

for fertilizer.

• By the mid-1970s, chemical fertilizers and pesticides manufactured in greater quantity. • Hybrid rice varieties demand intensive chemical fertilizer usage.

• 1980s, agricultural production rapidly increases: • economic reorganization,

• spread of high yield seeds, and use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

• Severe environmental consequences (water, soil, human health).

Self-sufficiency and Dietary Change

• Self-sufficiency into the turn of the century

• Grain security (粮食安全) – 95% of consumption in Corn, Rice, and Wheat to be met through domestic sources.

• Revised to 90% in 2014-15.

• Meat consumption and undermining self-sufficiency (Schneider, 2014):

• Animal feed not included in the 90-95% baselines.

• Pressure to import more for animal feed.

Dietary Change, 1961 vs. 2009

Keats & Wiggins, 2014

Meat consumption (kg/person/year), 1961-2010

Tony Weis, 2013, p. 83

Larsen, 2012

China and World Food Trade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Soyb

ean

Imp

ort

s (

Mill

ion

To

nn

es)

Soybean Imports, 1970-2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Co

rne

Imp

ort

s (

Mill

ion

To

nn

es)

Corn Imports, 1970-2013

• Soybean trade liberalized in 1996, prior to World Trade Organization (WTO) accession.

• Corn imports: recent increase, but constrained by 7 million tonne government limit.

Source: FAOStat, 2016

Self-Sufficiency Now

• Self sufficiency in a trading scenario

• Since food demand is higher, overall, how to meet food security goals?

• Land Grabs?

• The relative importance of businesses from China vs. others (US, Malaysia, Singapore, Emirates etc.) (Land Matrix, 2016).

• Lack of evidence regarding destination for Land Grab production.

• Importance of Agribusiness

• Global agribusiness channels have much greater reach.

Global Agribusiness Markets • In general: commercial sectors are highly concentrated, based

in United States and Europe.

• Seeds/agrochemicals

• Processing/trade

• Retail

• Processing/Trade:

• The “ABCD”’s (70% of global market) (Clapp, 2015; Murphy et al., 2012):

• Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) (United States)

• Bunge (United States, Europe)

• Cargill (United States)

• Louis Dreyfus (Europe)

http://www.shippingherald.com/

The Example of Corn • Corn imports to China rise beginning in 2008.

• By 2012, 95% of imports are sourced from the United States, brought in by the ABCDs.

• After US trade disruption in 2013/14, sources of corn splinter (Gaudreau and Clapp, 2016):

dimsums.blogspot.com

The Example of Corn (cont.)

Gaudreau, 2015

COFCO - Nidera and Noble Agri’s Global Infrastructural Presence

• State grain trader, COFCO (中粮集团), acquires agricultural commodities companies.

Concluding Thoughts

• For the central government of China, food security is a long-term national security concern.

• Government ideas about food security have, for decades, been focused on how to organize the production of staples under constrained resources. • This is being modified to a more global interpretation.

• What is missing in these ideas about food security is a focus on broader concerns about food safety and environmental sustainability. • Ethical sourcing, environmental impact, nutrition etc.

• What does it mean for China’s small farmers and land rights?

Thank you!

Merci!

谢谢！

References Clapp, J. (2015). ABCD and beyond: from grain merchants to agricultural value chain managers. Canadian Food Studies. 2(2). http://canadianfoodstudies.uwaterloo.ca/index.php/cfs/issue/view/11

Gaudreau, M. (2015). Seeds, Grain Trade, and Power Off-land: Chinese Agribusiness in Global Agrarian Change. Paper presented at Land grabbing, conflict and agrarian ‐ environmental transformations: perspectives from East and Southeast Asia (Vol. Conference Paper No. 4). Chiang Mai University, Thailand. Retrieved from http://www.iss.nl/fileadmin/ASSETS/iss/Research_and_projects/Research_networks/BICAS/CMCP_4-_Gaudreau.pdf

Gaudreau, M. & Clapp, J. (2016). Filling the Cracks of Fragmented Global Governance: Global-National Dynamics in the Political Economy of GM Corn. Paper presented at International Studies Association Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.

Keats, S. & Wiggins, S. (2014). Future diets: implications for agriculture and food prices. Overseas Development Institute. www.odi.org/future-diets

Larsen, J. (2012). Meat Consumption In China Now Double That in the United States. Earth Policy Institute. http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2012/update102

Murphy, S., Burch, D., & Clapp, J. (2012). Cereal Secrets: The world’s largest commodity traders and global trends in agriculture. Oxfam International. https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/cereal-secrets-worlds-largest-grain-traders-and-global-agriculture

Schneider, M. (2014). Developing the meat grab. Journal of Peasant Studies, 41(4), 613-633.

Weis, T. (2013). The ecological hoofprint: The global burden of industrial livestock. New York: Zed Books.