china culturas y clima

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Quaternary International 117 (2004) 153–166

Possible role of the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ on the collapse of Neolithic

Cultures around the Central Plain of China

Wu Wenxianga,b,*, Liu Tungshengb

aCollege of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinabInstitute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Abstract

Profound archaeological transformations that mark the collapse of Neolithic Cultures around Central China during the late third

millennium BC have been identified widely. However, the causes for their collapse have been disputed. In this paper, paleoclimaticdata are synthesized to show that an interval of severe climatic anomalies occurred across much of China, which were synchronous

with a climatic event identified at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Our syntheses also indicate that this climatic interval was not

only one of several climatic events during the Holocene, but marked the middle Holocene climatic transition (the ending of

Holocene optimum). Based on geological evidences and analysis of relationships between variations in the intensity of the East

Asian monsoon and changes in distributional pattern of monsoon-related rain belts in eastern China, we suggest that this climatic

anomaly was superimposed on the middle Holocene transition and significantly altered the hydrological regime. This generated an

environmental framework of drought in the north and flooding in the south of China, which was mainly responsible for the collapse

of Neolithic Cultures around the Central Plain.

r 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction

In recent years there has been an increase in

interdisciplinary studies of paleoenvironments and their

role on social processes, especially the rise and fall of

pristine civilizations (Weiss et al., 1993; Hodell et al.,

1995; Curtis et al., 1996; Binford et al., 1997; Grosjean

et al., 1997; deMenocal et al., 2000; Weiss, 2000). Special

attention is paid to climatic change around 4000 yr BP,

which has been termed the ‘‘4000 yr BP Event’’ by Perry

and Hsu (2000) or the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ by Bond et al.

(1997) and its possible role on the collapses of ancient

civilizations in Egypt, Indus, and Mesopotamia (Weiss

et al., 1993; Dalfes et al., 1997; Hsu, 1998; Cullen et al.,

2000; Perry and Hsu, 2000; Weiss, 2000; deMenocal,

2001). However, little is known about the 4000 yr BP

event, its environmental ramifications, and its impact on

Chinese civilization, despite scattered reports suggesting

that the 4000 yr BP climatic event may be responsible for

the collapse of the Liangzhu Culture in the lower

Yangtze River valley (Stanley et al., 1999; Yu et al.,

2000). It was once thought that the amplitude of the

4000 yr BP event in China was not comparable to that

observed in other parts of the world, and that it could

not have affected the ancient cultures of China as much

as those elsewhere (Hsu, 1998). Contrary to Hsu’s (1998)

view, however, archaeological evidence clearly indicates

a profound archaeological transformation that marks

the collapse of Neolithic Cultures around the Central

Plain during the late third millennium BC, (e.g., Yu,

1992; Li et al., 1993; Liu, 1996, 2000; Zhang et al., 1997;

Stanley et al., 1999; Xu, 1999; Zhao, 1999; Cao, 2000;

Shui, 2000; Tian, 2000; Yu et al., 2000; Tian and Tang,

2001; Wu and Liu, 2001). Geological evidence also

indicates a climatic anomaly during the late third

millennium BC (e.g., Gasse et al., 1991; Lister et al.,

1991; Sun and Chen, 1991; Zhou et al., 1991; Liu et al.,

1992; Fontes et al, 1993; Van Campo and Gasse, 1993;

Fontes et al., 1996; Gasse et al., 1996; Van Campo et al.,

1996; Zhang et al., 1997; Chen et al., 1999; Guo et al.,

2000; Jian et al., 2000; Zhang et al., 2000). The aim of

this paper is to evaluate the geological evidence for the

apparently climatic-induced collapse of Neolithic Cul-

tures around Central China in the late third millennium

BC. This examination will focus on the causes,

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*Corresponding author. College of Environmental Sciences, Peking

University, Beijing 100871, China.

1040-6182/$- see front matterr 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

doi:10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00125-3



mechanisms, and timing of this putative climatic event,

its environmental effects, and its possible role on the

collapse of Neolithic Cultures around Central China.

2. Present environmental setting

China is characterized by an intense monsoonal and

continental climate, marked by gradient in continental-

ity and aridity from southeastern to northwestern

mainly due to the northwestward attenuation of

monsoon winds (Fig. 1). China’s topography has been

likened to a series of steps decreasing in altitude (Fig. 1)

from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in west-central China

with a mean altitude of 4000 m, to the Xinjiang-Inner

Mongolia, Loess, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateaus with a

mean altitude of 2000 m, and finally to the vast eastern

low alluvial plain with a mean altitude of 200–500 m

(Winkler and Pao, 1993). Generally, the Qingling

Mountains and Huai River Valley are taken as a natural

boundary between south and north of China. This also

coincides roughly with the dividing line between areas of

rice and millet cultivation in ancient China. In this

paper, the south and north (of China) are said to be

divided by the Yellow River.

The climate of China is closely related to the Asian

summer monsoon system, which consists of relatively

independent subsystems, namely the southwestern (In-

dian) monsoon and eastern Asian monsoon. The

dividing line between the two systems lies from about

105 to 110E longitude. Thus the East Asian monsoon

regime is the dominant influence for the climate and

environment of central and eastern China, which also

has been the main arena for the activities of Neolithic

people in China. The winter monsoon is associated with

the Siberian high-pressure system and controls varia-

tions of temperature across almost the whole of eastern

China. The winter monsoon brings the cold and dry

continental air-mass southward to ca. 22

N latitude. Incontrast, the summer monsoon carries a warm and

humid air-mass from the ocean to a ca. 40.3N latitude,

spreading across the eastern part of northwestern China,

northern China, and most of northeastern China (An,

1999; An et al., 2000) (Fig. 1). The summer monsoon is

the most important factor controlling summer rainfall

over the eastern part of China. It not only can benefit

the livelihood of tens of thousands of people who live

there but also can give rise to calamities, such as floods

and drought that can impact the vast, densely populated

areas of eastern China (An et al., 2000). The occurrence

of the most common natural disasters such as drought,

flooding, and cold injuries are also related to other

elements such as topography, latitude, and their

proximity to the sea. Generally speaking, the northern

and western margins of China are more prone to suffer

drought disasters due to their being more continental

and at a higher altitude, while the vast lowland of lower

Yellow River Valley, the middle and lower Yangtze

River Valley, and the southeastern coastal areas are very

likely to suffer flooding because of their lower altitude

and their proximity to the sea (Fig. 1). Northeastern

China is prone to damage caused by low temperatures

(including cold injuries to humans) due to its being at

higher latitude.

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Q ing L in

Yangtze River

Y e l l o

w R i v

e r

H u a i R i

v e r

> 4000m

2000-4000m

<2000m0 500km250

90 100 120

20

30

40

20

30

40

5070 80 90 100 110 120 130

Winter monsoon

summer

monsoon

southwest monsoon

Fig. 1. Map showing the topography of China and the Asian monsoon regime.

W. Wenxiang, L. Tungsheng / Quaternary International 117 (2004) 153–166 154



The causes of the collapse of Neolithic cultures in

Southern China and Lower Yellow River Valley

(referred to as the Shandong Longshan culture) have

been long debated. Generally, archaeologists have

attributed their collapse solely to human factors, such

as social, political, and economic factors. For example,

the collapse of the Shijiahe Culture was attributed

primarily to the defeat of the Sanmiao tribe in at the

hands of the Huaxia tribe during warfare in the Central

Plain (e.g., Cao, 2000). For the Shandong Longshan

Culture, Zhang (1994) proposed that invaders with a

more advanced technology were responsible for the

sharp break between the Longshan Culture and the

subsequent dynastic period. The collapse of the Liangz-

hu Culture was either attributed to the over-consump-

tion of expensive goods such as elaborately worked

jades and the labor-intensive construction of large

architectural structures (Xu, 1999; Zhao, 1999) or the

defeat in war with the Huaxia tribe in the Central Plain.

However, these social explanations can not account for

the synchronicity of collapse of several Neolithic

cultures at a large regional scale.

The archaeologist Yu (1992) attributed the collapse of

the Liangzhu Culture, the Shijiahe Culture, and the

Shandong Longshan Culture to flooding disasters. This

hypothesis was echoed by some geographers (e.g., Zhu

et al., 1997; Stanley et al., 1999; Yu et al., 2000).

However, some archaeologists have disputed this

environmental hypothesis by arguing that: (1) flooding

may have occurred many times during the Neolithic

period, and so there is little reason to suggest that

flooding at this time had a more adverse effect on the

development of Neolithic cultures; (2) although the low

topography of eastern and southern China is more

prone to flooding, the landforms are complex, with

hills, mesas, high terraces, and low mountains occupy-

ing a vast area. These reaches could have provided a

refuge for ancient people fleeing floods. Advanced

societies could not be destroyed completely by only a

flood.

Compared with the collapse of Neolithic cultures in

the southern China, the attribution of the collapse of the

Qijia and Laohushan Cultures to natural disasters has

not provoked much debate. However, the lack of

geological evidence has precluded a good understanding

of the impact of climatic events on the collapse of

Neolithic cultures in the northwestern monsoon margin-

al areas.

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0 250 500 750 km

90° 100° 120°

Xinjiang

Xizang

(Tibet)

Gansu

Qinghai

Inner Mongol

Shanxi

70° 80° 90° 100° 110° 120° 130°

40°

30°

50°

20°

40°

30°

20°

Shanxi

Henan

Hebei

Liaoning

Jining

Sichuan

S h a n

d o n g

Jiangsu

Zhejiang

Hubei

Hunan

1

17

11

8

4

3

14

16

5

6

7

2

13

9

21

12

22

19

18

15

10

20

23

Yunnan

Guizhou

Fig. 3. Map showing some locations of the geological records synthesized and the provinces mentioned in this paper. 1. Hoton-Nur (Tarasov et al.,

2000); 2. Manas (Rhodes et al., 1996; Wei and Gasse, 1999); 3. Heyuan (Zhang et al., 1990; Chen, 1987); 4. Cengze (Chen, 1987); 5. Sumxi-Longmu

(Gasse et al., 1991; Fontes et al., 1993); 6. Bangong (Fontes et al., 1996); 7. Selin (Gu et al., 1993); 8. Dunde (Shi et al., 1993); 9. Minqging (Chen et al.,

1999); 10. Hongshui (Zhang et al., 2000); 11. Qinghai (Lister et al., 1991); 12. Zoig#e (Yan et al., 1999; Zhou et al, 2002); 13. Jinchuan (Liu, 1989); 14.

Diaozihai (Yang, 2001); 15. Taishizhuang (Jin and Liu, 2002); 16. Chasuqi (Wang and Sun, 1997); 17. Daihai. (An et al., 1991); 18. Fengyang (Zhang,

2001); 19. Qidong (Liu et al., 1992); 20. Gongan (Tang et al., 1996); 21. Mianyang (Yang et al., 1998); 22. Okinawa Trough (Jian et al., 2000); and 23.

Rc26-16. Rc26-16: (Wei et al., 1998).




4. Environmental background

Over the last few decades, many new observations and

analyses of geological records have yielded substantial

data on past environmental and climatic changes (for

compilations see e.g., Sun and Chen, 1991; Zhou et al.,

1991; Feng et al., 1993; Shi et al., 1993; Winkler andPao, 1993; Guo et al., 2000). These records range from

the beginning to the end of the Holocene, permit a good

analysis of regional climate evolution, and provide an

opportunity to objectively evaluate the ‘‘Holocene Event

3’’ and its environmental effects in China. Here we

attempt to summarize important information relevant to

this climatic interval, proceeding in our descriptions

from northwest to southeast China.

4.1. Geological evidence of ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ in China

Mountain glaciers are sensitive indicators of climatic

change and are very likely to record important Holocene

climatic changes. In the Dunde Ice Core of Mt. Qilian, a

wide and shallow cold trough reflected by the 18O curve

that appeared around 4000 14C yr BP (Shi et al., 1993)

(Fig. 3). This occurs at the same time as the advance of

mountain glaciers in Heyuan, near Urumqi, in the

Xinjiang Autonomous Region, with a 14C age of

40807150yr BP and 39507140 14C y r B P (Chen,

1987), and the advance of the Congze glacier in the

western Kunlun Mountains occurring at 39857120 14C

yr BP for the moraine I till and 35207120 14C yr BP for

the moraine II till (Zheng, 1990).

Some continuous lacustrine sections ranging from thebeginning to the late Holocene provide a good archival

record of the regional climate evolution. In north-

western China, which lies beyond the present day

monsoon domain (Wei and Gasse, 1999), several lakes

in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau including Bangong (Fontes

et al., 1996), Sumxi (Gasse et al., 1991; Fontes et al.,

1993), and Manas in Northern Xinjiang (Rhodes et al.,

1996), record a cooling spell about 4500–3500 calendar

yr BP (Gasse and van Campo, 1994). These results have

been supported by a recent study of oxygen isotope

records on these three lakes listed above (Wei and

Gasse, 1999).

The arid and semiarid areas of northern and western

China on the margins of the East Asian Monsoon region

are very sensitive to climatic changes. Encroachments or

retreats of precipitation associated with the summer

monsoon would be expected to be manifested in the

geological record. In the transitional zone between the

Tengger Desert and the Qilian Montains of the north-

eastern Tibetan Plateau, multidisciplinary studies of a

section dating from 8500 to 3000 calendar yr BP have

recorded several warm-humid and cold-dry periods,

which have been attributed to the strengthening and

weakening of the summer monsoon circulation and

which appear to be closely connected with global

climatic changes. One of these cold-dry periods occurred

between 4300 and 3740 calendar yr BP (Zhang et al.,

2000). In the Minqin Basin, located in the arid north-

western China but within the present day East Asian

Monsoon domain, studies of proxies of magnetic

susceptibility, particle size and chemical compositionon a 6 m long core (16,000 yr BP) from Lake Yiema

indicate that the moist period of the early and middle

Holocene ended around 4500 calendar yr BP (Chen

et al., 1999) (Fig. 3). This coincides with expansion of

the deserts in northwestern China during the late

Holocene (Zhu and Chen, 1994).

Located within the present day East Asian Monsoon

domain, Qinghai and Selin Lakes in the Tibetan Plateau

clearly record the 4000yr BP climatic change. In

Qinghai Lake, oxygen stable-isotope and pollen studies

on two cores clearly show that the lake level, which

reached its first maximum shortly before 9.5 calendar yr

BP dropped significantly after 4500 calendar yr BP

(Lister et al., 1991). In Selin Lake, chemical and

mineralogical analyses including MgO/Cao, d18O, d13C

and carbonates indicate that the interval from 4200 to

3400 14C yr BP is characterized by a maximum cold and

dry interval, which signifies the end of the Holocene

optimum (Gu et al., 1993). In the Zoige Plateau,

which is very sensitive to changes in the East Asian

climate because of its location close to the boundary

of the southeast and southwest Indian monsoons,

lacustrine deposits containing a 30,000 year climatic

sequence of pollen and stable-isotope records also

indicate that the Holocene Optimum started at 9.4calendar yr BP and ended at 4500 calendar yr BP (Yan

et al., 1999).

The farming–grazing transitional zone of Inner

Mongolia, north China, driven by fluctuations in East

Asian monsoon rainfall, is also one of the ecotones

sensitive to global changes. Many geological records

indicate that 4500 calendar yr BP is a marker for the

ending of Holocene optimum (Zhang et al., 1997). For

example, Daihai Lake, an endoreic system, lies in the

transitional zone between semihumid and semiarid

areas. Multidisciplinary studies including analyses of

lake terraces, lacustrine deposits, and biological and

geochemical as well as 14C dating, indicate that the

highest lake level lasted from 8500 to 4500 calendar yr

BP, corresponding to the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

After about 4500 calendar yr BP, the level of Daihai

Lake rapidly dropped and never attained its former

level, signifying the end of the Holocene Optimum (An

et al., 1991) (Fig. 4). At Diaojiaohaizi Lake, located on

the top of the Daqing Mountain, Inner Mongolia,

analyses of sporopollen samples, geochemical studies,

and 14C dating of sediment in the section show that the

Holocene Optimum ended about 4500 calendar yr BP

(Yang, 2001). A similar result is indicated by the

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well-dated sporopollen record of a peat section located

in a nearby area (Wang and Sun, 1997). Further north-

westward to the Honton-nur, a fresh-water lake, located

in the northwestern Mongolian Altai, radiocarbon-

dated pollen and diatom records on two cores clearly

indicate that attenuation of East Asian Monsoon caused

a climatic regime that was wetter than today to an end

around 4500 calendar yr BP (Tarasov et al., 2000).

Further southeastward in Central China, a 14C dated

magnetic susceptibility record on a loess section at

Fengyang on the Loess Plateau, Shanxi Province, clearly

documents several cooling events during the Holocene,

the most severe of which occurred about 4500 calendar

yr BP (Zhang, 2001). In Huailai County, Hebei

Province, north China, pollen and oxygen isotope

records on a well-dated peat core clearly indicate an

exceptional cooling episode at 4600–4200 calendar yr BP

(Jin and Liu, 2002). In Northeast China, well-dated

pollen records indicate a drier/cooler episode at 4000–

3500 calendar yr BP characterized by a decrease in the

annual pollen flux and the number of tree and shrub

assemblages (Liu, 1989).

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??

150

100

50

0(a)

112100

80

60

40

20

?

? ?0

0

-20

0

20

-20

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.08

6

4

2

0

H u m i d i n d e x ( % )

15

25

20

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f )

P u l l e n i a t i n a

o b l i q u i l o c u l a t a / %

L a k e l e v e l ( m )

L a k e l e

v e l ( m )



W a t e r t e m p e r a t u r e ( º C )

82 4 6 10 12 Ka BP.0

(g)

16

8

0

Summer

Winter

Fig. 4. Correlation of the 4000 yr BP climatic event. (a) African Abh!e Lake (Gasse, 2000); (b) African Ziway-Shala-System (Gasse, 2000); (c) Daihai

Lake, Inner Mongolia (An et al., 1991); (d) Yema Lake, Minqing Basin (Chen et al., 1999); (e) Arid and semiarid areas of China (Guo, 1996);

(f) Rc26-16 core (Wei et al., 1998); (g) 255 core (Jian et al., 1996).




This climatic event is also well documented in South

China. Pollen evidence from four cores in the Jianghan

Plain clearly record several cold intervals, among which

the 4500–4300 calendar yr BP event either represents the

coldest period during the Holocene or marks the end of

the Holocene optimum in this area (Tang et al., 1996).

This result was supported by a recent, well-dated pollenrecord on a 50 m core in the center of the Jianghan Plain

(Yang et al., 1998). In the Yangtze River Delta,

paleontological evidence from a 52 m core from Qidong

clearly shows that Pinus (pines) and Quercus (oaks)

became more abundant after 4200 calendar yr BP,

indicating a climatic cooling (Liu et al., 1992).

The most compelling evidence for the 4000 yr BP

event is derived from oceanic drill cores. Variations in

the occurrence of the foramanifer Pulleniatina obliqui-

loculata in the Okinawa Trough (Jian et al., 2000) and

the South China Sea (Jian et al., 1996) show that the

most conspicuous decrease in this warm-water species

during the Holocene occurred from 4500 to 2500

calendar yr BP. This 4500–2500 calendar yr BP decline,

termed as Pulleniatina Minimum Event (Jian et al.,

1996), was interpreted to be possibly related to cooling

winter SST, and correlated probably to the neoglacial

cooling (Jian et al., 1996, 2000). In the northeastern

South China Sea, sea cores record a short cooling event

at about 4500 calendar yr BP (Wei et al., 1998) (Fig. 4).

This decline in temperatures between 4500 and 2400

calendar yr BP has also been noted by several authors

studying the Atlantic and Pacific (Boltovskoy, 1990).

Paleontological research has also shown that the

Holocene Optimum ended about 4500 yr BP. Decreasingtemperatures caused contraction of deciduous forests

and expansion of coniferous forests and grasslands in

north China, a decrease of evergreen forests in south

China, and a decrease or even a disappearance of forests

in Tibet and Inner Mongolia (Sun and Chen, 1991).

Other syntheses on Holocene climate in China also

indicate that environmental deterioration occurred

around 4500 calendar yr BP (Shi et al., 1993; Zhou

et al., 1991; Feng et al., 1993). Recently, 158 dates on

paleosols and lake sediments from arid and semiarid

regions in northern China have demonstrated that the

most severe aridity during Holocene culminated at

about 4000 calendar yr BP, with a aptitude comparable

to that of glacial conditions (Guo et al., 2000) (Fig. 4).

It appears that the 4000 yr BP climatic event is well

manifested in many geological records. Among the

records selected, slight differences in the timing and

amplitude of maximum aridity may be due to regional

factors, and/or uncertainties in the proxy data. These

records collectively indicate that, within the respective

dating uncertainties, China—especially the East Asian

Monsoon domain—experienced the 4000 yr BP climatic

cooling event, supporting the hypotheses that this late

Holocene drought episode was of global significance

(Gasse and van Campo, 1994; Perry and Hsu, 2000;

deMenocal, 2001). For example, archaeological evi-

dence indicates that the years 4000–3900 yr BP were the

coldest and most arid in western Asia (Weiss et al., 1993;

Cullen et al., 2000). In the north Atlantic, there occurred

a widespread cooling episode, during which Atlantic

subpolar and subtropical surface waters cooled by1–2C (Bond et al., 1997; deMenocal et al., 2000).

Varves from Swiss lakes indicate that Alpine glaciers

became widespread during this ice age (Hsu, 1998),

supporting the formal inception of a ‘Neoglacial’ Period

since 4000 yr BP in Europe (Lamb, 1977). In eastern

Europe, Russia, and their surrounding areas, climate

became colder after 4500 calendar yr BP (for a

compilation see Krementski, 1997). This severe drought

episode has been well identified throughout Africa

(Gasse and Van Campo, 1994; Guo et al., 2000; Gasse,

2000). In the New World, a dust spike preserved in a

Peruvian mountain glacier marks ‘‘a major drought’’

occurring about 2200 BC in the Amazon Basin and is by

far the largest such event of the past 17,000 years (Kerr,

1998). A particularly interesting fact is the synchronicity

of these cooling event at a global scale, strongly

suggesting large scale disequilibrium in the Earth’s

climate system (Gasse and van Campo, 1994).

The forcing mechanisms that brought about the

abrupt climatic changes of the Holocene are ongoing

subjects of debate. Recent studies suggest that the

4000yr BP climatic event may be one of several

widespread cooling events during the Holocene (Bond

et al., 1997; deMenocal et al., 2000; Allen et al., 2002),

and may be forced by variations of solar output (Bondet al., 2001). The East Asian Monsoon areas of China

also experienced nonorbital millennial-scaled climatic

events during the Holocene (see e.g., Guo et al., 2000;

Jian et al., 2000; Zhou et al., 2002), and several climatic

changes including the 4000yr BP event could be

temporally correlated to ‘‘Bond Events’’ (Jian et al.,

2000; Zhou et al., 2002), suggesting that the 4000 yr BP

event is one of several Holocene climatic events and was

possibly controlled by a similar forcing agent.

This model could not account, however, for the

intensity of the 4000 yr BP event, especially its being a

marker of the ending of Holocene Optimum. The

severity of this event is well reflected by variations of

in lake levels throughout the East Asian Monsoon

marginal regions of China. At many sites, although the

there were differences in the timing of inception of the

high lake levels, the ending of high lake level came were

synchronized at about 4500 yr BP. Following this event

were several wet phases but of much lower amplitude.

Similar changes occurred in north and western summer

monsoon marginal areas (Gasse and van Campo, 1994;

Gasse, 2000; Guo et al., 2000). Other compilation

studies also indicate that this cooling event was not

only the coldest episode during the Holocene but

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signified the change from the early Holocene Climatic

Optimum to late Holocene alternations of little climatic

optima and little ice ages (Hsu, 1998; Perry and Hsu,

2000).

This transition from mid-Holocene to modern cli-

mate, thought to be triggered by variations in insolation

related to Earth’s orbital parameters (Claussen et al.,1999), have been inferred from the Holocene climatic

records from China (Van Campo and Gasse, 1993;

Gasse et al., 1996; Wei et al., 1998; Tarasov et al., 2000).

However, the smooth variations in orbital parameters

through the Holocene could not account for the

noticeable climatic change around 4500 yr BP (Gasse

and van Campo, 1994; Gasse et al., 1996; Gasse, 2000;

Claussen et al., 1999). Positive feedback mechanisms

from the ocean, vegetation cover and soil moisture are

thought to be required to account for observed changes

(Claussen et al., 1999; Gasse, 2000). For example,

climatic modeling in the Sahara (Claussen et al., 1999)

indicates that the middle Holocene transition to

desertification of the Saharan and Arabian regions was

triggered by subtle variations in the Earth’s orbit which

were strongly amplified by atmosphere–vegetation feed-

back in the subtropics. The timing of this transition was

mainly governed by a global interplay between atmo-

sphere, ocean, sea ice, and vegetation. Similar mechan-

isms may also be applied to explain the evolution of the

East Asian monsoon during the Holocene. We suggest

that the environmental characteristics marking the

ending of the Holocene Optimum in China around

4500 yr BP may have resulted from the combined effects

of the 4000yr BP climatic cooling episode and itssuperimposition on the middle-Holocene transitions

resulting from the long-term East Asian Monsoon

variations amplified by feedback phenomena.

4.2. The environmental effects of the 4000 yr BP cooling

event

The 4000 yr BP climatic event is first manifested by a

decrease in temperature. Comparison with other parts of

the world indicates that ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ has had

different regional expressions and different environmen-

tal effects. In the Mediterranean area, for example, this

cooling event lead to a drought spell, during which

changes in westerlies and monsoon rainfall resulted in

precipitation reductions of up to 30% (Weiss and

Raymond, 2001). A similar drought effect was seen in

Mesopotamia and North Africa (Weiss, 2000). In North

and Middle Europe, however, the 4000 yr BP climatic

cooling event brought not aridity, but increased

precipitation, which caused lake dwellers in northern

Europe to abandon their flooded settlements (Hsu,

1998).

What were the environmental effects of ‘‘Holocene

Event 3’’ on the East Asian Monsoon domain?

Generally it was thought that a cooling interval

associated with weakening of East Asian Monsoon

would bring a dry interval across the monsoon domain.

But the East Asian Monsoon climate dynamic is very

complicated (An, 1999; An et al., 2000). During

‘‘Holocene Event 3’’, lake levels, especially those in

lakes of the East Asian Monsoon marginal belt such asQinghai (Liu et al., 1992), Daihai (An et al., 1991),

Yema (Chen et al., 1999) and Seling (Gu et al., 1993),

dropped sharply after 4500 yr BP, indicating a drought

spell. However, the same period in southern China can

be related to wetness and a flooding interval, not

drought. Geological and hydrological studies show that

the water bodies of some big lakes in the middle-lower

Yangtze River basin, such as Poyang, Dongting and

Taihu Lakes were forming or expanding during this

period (An et al., 1991). Recent correlation of core

sections on the Yangtze River delta plain suggests the

same result (Stanley and Chen, 1996; Stanley et al.,

1999). Hydrological records from the middle Yangtze

River Valley also indicate the same environmental

effects. Multiple analyses including those of sporepollen

assemblages and 14C age determinations on a 50 m core

indicate that the period from 3900 to 1700 14C yr BP

witnessed rapid drop in temperature but a higher

effective humidity, suggesting a possible expanding of

fresh water bodies (Yang et al., 1998). Stratigraphical

studies of the same core indicated that the Yunmentze

(paleoswamp) in the middle Yangtze river valley was

expanding during this period (Yang et al., 1998). This

phenomenon has been confirmed by archaeological

surveys. It has been noted that many Shijiahe andLiangzhu Neolithic sites in the middle and lower

Yangtze river valley were either submerged under lake

water or buried by marsh peat in the late third

millennium BC (Wu and Wu, 1998; Stanley et al.,

1999), which may suggest an expansion of land water

bodies during the late third millennium BC. It seems

that the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ brought a wet interval to

southern China, as compared to the drought experience

in the northern China.

4.3. Mechanism of the 4000 yr BP environmental change

It has been known that climate and environment are

controlled mainly by the activities of East Asia monsoon

(An et al., 2000). The evolution of the environmental

framework of drought in the north and flooding in the

south of China is closely related to the retreat of summer

monsoon front, resulting from a climatic anomaly

during the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’. It was generally

thought that a climatic pattern of either cold-dryness

or warm-wetness prevailed during this period. However,

environmental changes of the Holocene period do not

necessarily manifest themselves similarly in different

regions. It has been known that precipitation associated

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with the East Asian monsoon is produced by the

interaction along the monsoon front of northward-

moving moist summer monsoon air and a northern mass

of cooler air (An et al., 2000). The relationship between

anomalies of the summer monsoon and the distribution

of accompanying drought or flooding shows regional

features, including variations in the amount of pre-cipitation in different areas. The strengthening or

weakening of the East Asian Monsoon did not result

in an increase or decrease in precipitation, respectively,

in all areas influenced by it. In fact, only over those areas

where the monsoon front stayed longer did precipitation

increase (Liu et al., 1996), leading to possible flooding or

water-logging calamities.

On a time-scale of 104 years or more, variations of the

East Asian Monsoon were controlled mainly by varia-

tions of solar insolation related to changes in the Earth’s

orbital parameters (Kutzbach and Guetter, 1986;

Wright et al., 1993). Based on the syntheses of vast

geological data and numerical modeling, An et al. (2000)

suggested that the spatial and temporal distribution of

summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene

was asynchronous in the East Asian Monsoon domain.

They interpreted this phenomenon as follows: With

summer solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere

reaching its maximum about 11,000–10,000 calendar yr

BP, the northernmost frontal zone of monsoon rainfall

advanced northward to cause a peak in precipitation

there. As Northern Hemisphere seasonality weakened, a

corresponding weakening of the summer monsoon

caused the northernmost frontal zone to retreat,

resulting in a lengthened interval of high precipitationin broad regional belt. It has been demonstrated that

high precipitation reached its peak at 10,000–7000

calendar yr BP ago in north-central and northern east-

central China, 7000–5000 calendar yr BP ago in the

middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and

3000 calendar yr BP ago in southern China (An et al.,

2000). However, the geologic records and numerical

models give only a general trend of variations of East

Asian monsoon precipitation and don’t take into

account the environmental effects brought by the

4000 yr BP climatic event. Our syntheses on geological

data suggest that a contrasting environmental frame-

work of drought in the north and flooding in south came

about around 4500 calendar yr BP. Former syntheses

indicated that the abrupt transition from early middle

Holocene Optimum to the modern climate regime

around 4500 calendar yr BP was triggered by variations

in Earth’s orbital parameters, which were amplified by

atmosphere–vegetation feedback (Claussen et al., 1999).

We suggest that the pattern of drought in the north and

flooding in the south around 4000 yr BP could be mainly

the result of a middle Holocene climatic transition.

On the other hand, a 4000 yr BP event independent of

the long variation in the East Asian monsoon would

also generate impacts on the distribution of the summer

monsoon rain belt across eastern China. Variability in

the intensity of the summer monsoon is closely related to

the rainfall anomaly in eastern China. It has been noted

that the anomaly of summer rainfall in northern China

was usually reversed relative to that over the middle and

lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (Wang et al.,1981), i.e., in years with a strong summer monsoon, the

rain belt will advance into North China after a rather

short time, resulting in abundant precipitation there and

in sharp precipitation deficit over southern China. In

contrast, in years with a weak monsoon, the summer

monsoon front will stagnate in the Yangtze River valley

for a long time, causing a large amount of rainfall in

southern China but drought conditions in northern

China (Shi and Zhu, 1996; Tao and Chen, 1987). For

example, in 1982 and 1983 there was severe drought in

northern China, while in the Yangtze River valley the

rainfall was above normal (Tao and Chen, 1987).

Studies of seasonal (An et al., 2000), interannual (Zhang

and Li, 1994; Shi and Zhu, 1996; Zhao, 1999), and

interdecadal variability (Zhu and Wang, 2001) in the

relationships between variations of summer monsoon

intensity and the distribution of anomalies of monsoon

rain belts demonstrate the same result.

Wang et al. (1981) suggested that the movement of the

position of the rain belt over the east of China might be

related closely to variations in solar activity. Recent

studies (Bond et al., 2001) suggest the millennium-scale

fluctuations of temperature were related to variations of

solar output. Analysis of precipitation records from 160

stations in China and global temperature during theperiod of from 1951 to 1991 indicates that the response

of precipitation distribution patterns in China to global

temperature has relevance to the intensity of fluctuation

of the summer monsoon in eastern China. That is, that

monsoon precipitation is positive to variations of global

temperature in northern China, and is negative in

southern China (Zhang and Li, 1994). Zhang and Li

(1994) suggested that fluctuations in global climate

could influence the distribution pattern of monsoon

precipitation over eastern China through influencing the

variation of intensity of the East Asian monsoon. The

monsoon regime is formed as a result of thermal

differences between the Asian landmass and the Pacific

Ocean (An, 1999; An et al., 2000). It is likely that

increase in temperature will strengthen the thermal

contrast between the warmer Asian continent and the

colder Pacific Ocean, resulting in the monsoon front

moving northward and inland and thus leading to an

increase in precipitation there. By contrast, a cooling

period associated with the attenuation of the summer

monsoon will lead to a decrease in precipitation in

northern China, but an increase in precipitation in

southern China due to prolonged influence of the frontal

systems there (Zhang and Li, 1994). During the

ARTICLE IN PRESS




civilizations, could also have had positive effects. For

example, in coastal areas of Peru, the severe drought

may have promoted the replacement of sea food by

agriculture (Kerr, 1998), which may be of great

significance for the rise of civilization. In Crete in the

Aegean Sea, this period witnessed not a collapse but the

emergence of the state-level Old Palace Civilization

(Manning, 1997). Another climatic event around 5500 yr

BP also coincides with the emergence of complexity

across much of the world (Sandweiss et al., 1996). In the

Central Plain of China, this climatic change witnessed

not cultural collapse but cultural leap development

toward more complex society. Preliminary study sug-

gests that this climatic change may have facilitated the

emergence of Chinese civilization or the rise of dynastic

state-level society because warfare intensified as popula-

tion pressure increased in the more environmentalcircumscribed agricultural lands produced by ‘‘Holo-

cene Event 3’’ (Wu and Liu, 2001). In the Laoxi area,

the Xiaoheyan Culture was under less development

throughout the 4500–4000 yr BP. Recent study suggest

that a severe climatic change episode from 4600 to 4200

was responsible for the decline of Xiaoheyan Culture

(Jin and Liu, 2002), but could not account for the

transition from Xiaoheyan to a more developed Lower

Xiajiadian Culture around 4000 yr BP. It seems that

more well-dated archaeological and geological records

are needed to shed light on how cultural transforma-

tions occurred in response to climate changes.

Another interesting question is the apparent time lag

between the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ and the aforemen-

tioned Neolithic cultural transformations. Geological

data indicate that the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ may have

commenced as early as 4500 calendar yr BP, but that the

Neolithic cultural transformations occurred about

4200–4000 calendar yr BP. ago, lagging behind the

climatic anomaly by several hundred years. This

situation is also observed in Africa. Climatic changes

at the mid- to late Holocene transition also occurred

around 4500 calendar yr BP (Gasse, 2000), several

hundred years earlier than the collapse of Egyptian

civilization around 4000 yr BP. Two factors may have

accounted for this phenomenon. The first is the possible

time lag representing the environmental response to

climatic change. It has been found that a lag time of up

to 300 years exists between climatic change and

vegetation response (e.g., Bradley, 1999). This phenom-

enon is supported by a recent Holocene environmental

study in Inner Mongolia. A well-studied section showed

that climatic changes were reflected in vegetational

changes about 200 years later, according to geochemical

evidence (Yang et al., 1998). It has been proposed that it

also takes time for human societies to respond to

environmental change (Liu, 2000). It is likely, therefore,

that there exists a lag time between environmental and

cultural changes. The second factor may be due to the

fact that the ‘‘Holocene Event 3’’ may have been

initiated early but culminated in an interval coincidingwith the cultural collapse that some scholars have

demonstrated for Mesopotamia (Weiss et al., 1993;

Cullen et al., 2000). Obviously, no matter what the

situation may be, further study needs to be undertaken

to determine the full magnitude and properties of the

‘‘Holocene Event 3’’.

6. Concluding remarks

Review of geological data from widely scattered sites

across China points to a marked climatic anomaly

during the late third millennium BC. This interval of

severe climatic deterioration was synchronous with a

climatic event during the late third millennium BC

identified in many Northern Hemisphere sites. This

anomaly shows two special characteristics. It is one of

the several climatic events during the Holocene and

marks the ending of Holocene Optimum. It is suggested

that this climatic anomaly was independent of and

superimposed upon Holocene monsoon variations. The

combined affect altered the hydrological regime, result-

ing in a sharply contrasting environmental framework

of drought in the north and flooding in the south of

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agriculture agriculture agriculturepastoralism pastoralism

250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 20000

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

1.4

1.6

H

u m i d i n d e x

Fig. 5. Relationship between the alternation of agriculture and pastoralism with variations in the humidity index in the semiarid Ordos area for the

past 2000 years (after Gong, 1996).




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