china cement weekly...supported by the news of positive profit alert for 2013. conch venture looks...
TRANSCRIPT
1
China Cement Weekly
January 6, 2014
Wong Chi Man—Senior Analyst
(852) 3698-6317
John Mulcahy—Head of Research
(852) 3698-6889
End of Peak Season; Limited Catalysts in the Near Term Cement prices largely stable last week. Average cement price (nation-wide) remained flat at
RMB356/tonne last week.
Construction activities to slow down. Due to the cold weather and the upcoming Lunar New
Year holidays in late January, we are going to see reduced construction activity in the coming
weeks. Cement companies typically arrange production suspension for regular repair and
maintenance at this time.
Valuation undemanding but not good timing to buy due to seasonality. Overall, cement
stocks under our coverage are not trading at high valuations in terms of PER and PBR (see table
below). They are still attractive on a 12-month basis. However, cement prices are likely to de-
cline in the near term as a result of seasonality caused by reduced construction activity. There-
fore we see limited catalysts to drive share prices up and it’s better to wait and see at the mo-
ment for investors with a shorter investment horizon.
Cement stocks under our coverage dropped 3.9% last week. The correction largely followed
the overall market as the HSCEI also lost 3.6%. The weakest was Shanshui Cement (0691.HK,
HOLD), which fell 5.8%. On the other hand, BBMG (2009.HK, BUY) only lost 0.5%, probably
supported by the news of positive profit alert for 2013.
Conch Venture looks very expensive. Conch Venture’s (0586.HK, Not-rated) share price
has surged 56% since its IPO in mid-December. Its latest market cap is HK$39.5bn. Based on
Anhui Conch’s (0914.HK, BUY) H-share price, the company’s Anhui Conch stake is worth
HK$26.4bn. We estimate the non-Anhui Conch business is trading at about 38x 2013E PER. If
we apply a holding company discount to the Anhui Conch stake, the implied PER for non-Anhui
Conch business will be even higher. Investors may be over-bullish to the environmental protec-
tion related business, in our view.
China Cement Sector
Sources: Company, Bloomberg, CGIHK Research estimates
Valuation Table
Net debt/equity (%)
Company Ticker Rating Price (HK$) Market cap (US$m) 2012 2013E 2014E 2012 2013E 2014E 2012 2013E 2014E 2013E
Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity BUY 27.70 14,950 19.0 13.9 11.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 11.1 8.6 7.5 23
CNBM 3323 HK Equity BUY 7.94 5,496 6.4 5.8 5.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 8.9 6.6 5.8 310
BBMG 2009 HK Equity BUY 6.40 4,147 10.5 9.3 8.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 9.1 8.2 7.2 80
CR Cement 1313 HK Equity BUY 5.10 4,272 14.3 11.1 9.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 9.9 8.2 6.8 83
Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity HOLD 3.10 1,119 4.7 7.3 6.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.9 5.5 5.1 147
Simple average 11.0 9.5 8.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 8.8 7.4 6.5 128
Weighted average 14.3 11.1 9.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 10.0 8.0 7.0 96
PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x)
2012 -2014E PEG(x)
Company Ticker 2013E 2014E CAGR (%) 2013E 2012 2013E 2014E 2012 2013E 2014E
Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity 34.3 15.2 24.4 0.6 13.5 16.2 16.3 1.1 1.3 1.5
CNBM 3323 HK Equity 8.9 5.2 7.0 0.8 19.1 17.9 16.2 2.4 2.6 2.8
CR Cement 1313 HK Equity 28.8 21.5 25.1 0.4 11.4 13.3 14.4 1.7 2.4 2.7
BBMG 2009 HK Equity 11.0 9.6 10.3 0.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 1.4 1.2 1.2
Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity (36.8) 5.6 (18.3) (0.4) 18.4 10.7 10.7 7.5 4.1 4.4
Simple average 9.3 11.4 9.7 0.5 14.5 13.6 13.5 2.8 2.3 2.5
Weighted average 23.0 13.1 17.8 0.6 13.9 15.0 14.9 1.7 1.8 2.0
EPS Growth (%) ROE (%) Dividend yield (%)
2
One-year Relative Performance
Sources: Capital IQ, CGIHK Research
Peer Comparison
Sources: Bloomberg, CGIHK Research
Market cap
Company Ticker Rating Price (HK$) (US$m) 2012 2013E 2014E 2012 2013E 2014E 2012 2013E 2014E
Anhui Conch 914 HK Equity BUY 27.70 14,950 19.0 13.9 11.9 2.46 2.11 1.81 11.1 8.6 7.5
CNBM 3323 HK Equity BUY 7.94 5,496 6.4 5.8 5.4 1.14 0.97 0.83 8.9 6.6 5.8
BBMG 2009 HK Equity BUY 6.4 4,147 10.5 9.3 8.3 0.97 0.87 0.78 9.1 8.2 7.2
CR Cement 1313 HK Equity BUY 5.10 4,272 14.3 11.1 9.1 1.56 1.39 1.24 9.9 8.2 6.8
Shanshui Cement 691 HK Equity HOLD 3.1 1,119 4.7 7.3 6.8 0.82 0.77 0.70 4.9 5.5 5.1
TCC International 1136 HK Equity NR 3.81 1,610 14.0 9.8 8.6 0.78 0.72 0.64 12.1 7.3 6.5
China National Materials 1893 HK Equity NR 1.61 737 11.5 10.1 8.1 0.42 0.39 0.36 7.6 6.2 5.7
Asia Cement 743 HK Equity NR 4.93 984 11.5 7.6 5.8 0.69 0.63 0.58 8.3 6.1 4.9
West China Cement 2233 HK Equity NR 1.11 647 10.2 8.5 6.6 0.81 0.76 0.68 7.2 6.0 5.4
Tianrui Cement 1252 HK Equity NR 2.22 683 6.2 6.4 5.2 0.63 0.60 0.54 7.3 7.2 6.4
Simple average 10.8 9.0 7.6 1.03 0.92 0.82 8.6 7.0 6.1
Weighted average 13.9 10.8 9.3 1.67 1.45 1.26 9.9 7.8 6.8
PER (x) PBR (x) EV/EBITDA(x)
3
Figure 1: Regional Cement Price
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
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400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Northeast China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
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400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
East China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
South Central China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
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370
390
410
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Southwest China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Northwest China
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Average (P.O. 42.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4
Figure 2: Cement Prices in Major Cities (1)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Beijing
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tianjin
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Shijiazhuang, Hebei
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Taiyuan, Shanxi
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hohhot, Inner Mongolia
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Shenyang, Liaoning
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Changchun, Jilin
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Harbin, Heilongjiang
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5
Figure 3: Cement Prices in Major Cities (2)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Shanghai
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nanjing, Jiangsu
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hangzhou, Zhejiang
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hefei, Anhui
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Fuzhou, Fujian
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nanchang, Jiangxi
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jinan, Shandong
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Zhengzhou, Henan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6
Figure 4: Cement Prices in Major Cities (3)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Wuhan, Hubei
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Changsha, Hunan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Guangzhou, Guangdong
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nanning, Guangxi
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Haikou, Hainan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Chongqing
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Chengdu, Sichuan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Guiyang, Guizhou
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
7
Figure 5: Cement Prices in Major Cities (4)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Kunming, Yunnan
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Xi'an, Shaanxi
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lanzhou, Gansu
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Xining, Qinghai
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yinchuan, Ningxia
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ürümchi, Xinjiang
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
8
Figure 6: Cement Prices (Early January) (RMB/Tonne)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
9
Figure 7: Cement Inventory Level (%)
Sources: Digital Cement, CGIHK Research
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
National Average
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
North China
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
Northeast China
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
East China
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
South Central China
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
Southwest China
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2012
.02.
03
2012
.03.
02
2012
.03.
30
2012
.04.
27
2012
.05.
25
2012
.06.
29
2012
.08.
03
2012
.08.
31
2012
.09.
28
2012
.11.
02
2012
.11.
30
2012
.12.
28
2013
.02.
01
2013
.03.
15
2013
.04.
19
2013
.05.
24
2013
.06.
28
2013
.07.
26
2013
.08.
23
2013
.09.
18
2013
.10.
25
2013
.11.
22
2013
.12.
20
Northwest China
10
Figure 8: Clinker Capacity Breakdown by Region (2013)
Note: The largest regional exposure of each company is highlighted in yellow.
Sources: Digital Cement, China Cement Association, CGIHK Research
Anhui Conch CNBM CR Cement Shanshui BBMG TCCI Asia Cement WCC Sinoma Group Jidong Huaxin
0914.HK 3323.HK 1313.HK 0691.HK 2009.HK 1136.HK 0743.HK 2233.HK 000401.CH 600801.CH
East China
Anhui 44.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Fujian 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jiangsu 2.4% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jiangxi 3.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Shandong 1.0% 10.8% 0.0% 56.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
Zhejiang 2.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Shanghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 52.4% 39.2% 12.6% 56.9% 0.0% 8.6% 44.7% 0.0% 14.7% 3.3% 0.0%
South Central China
Guangdong 6.0% 0.3% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 40.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Guangxi 10.0% 1.6% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hainan 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hunan 8.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 2.0% 16.0%
Hubei 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.6%
Henan 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 2.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8%
Total 24.0% 16.2% 74.9% 2.9% 4.5% 56.3% 30.6% 0.0% 13.0% 2.0% 78.3%
North China
Beijing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tianjin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hebei 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 61.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.9% 0.0%
Shanxi 0.0% 0.3% 8.4% 13.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0%
Inner Mongolia 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 10.6% 0.0%
Total 0.0% 4.7% 8.4% 20.0% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 59.5% 0.0%
Northeast China
Heilongjiang 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jilin 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0%
Liaoning 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Total 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 16.9% 2.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0%
Southwest China
Chongqing 2.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 3.8%
Sichuan 4.5% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2%
Guizhou 6.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yunnan 0.9% 6.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4%
Tibet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3%
Total 14.1% 32.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 31.6% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 21.7%
Northwest China
Gansu 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Shaanxi 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.3% 1.9% 18.2% 0.0%
Qinghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Ningxia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Xinjiang 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 68.5% 18.2% 0.0%
Grand Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
11
Figure 9: Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2012)
Note: Market leader in each province is highlighted in yellow. Market leader is each region in highlighted in red.
Sources: Digital Cement, China Cement Association, CGIHK Research
Anhui Conch CNBM CR Cement Shanshui BBMG TCCI Asia Cement WCC Sinoma Group Jidong Huaxin
0914.HK 3323.HK 1313.HK 0691.HK 2009.HK 1136.HK 0743.HK 2233.HK 000401.CH 600801.CH
East China
Anhui 54.4% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Fujian 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jiangsu 5.3% 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Jiangxi 8.7% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Shandong 1.7% 34.2% 0.0% 26.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0%
Zhejiang 4.3% 47.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Shanghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 17.7% 23.6% 1.5% 5.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0%
South Central China
Guangdong 12.3% 1.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guangxi 23.2% 6.9% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hainan 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hunan 17.6% 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 2.0% 9.3%
Hubei 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35.1%
Henan 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
Total 9.9% 12.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.4% 5.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.8% 0.4% 7.9%
North China
Beijing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tianjin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hebei 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 0.0%
Shanxi 0.0% 1.4% 6.1% 1.1% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0%
Inner Mongolia 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 11.5% 0.0%
Total 0.0% 6.2% 1.6% 1.4% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 17.5% 0.0%
Northeast China
Heilongjiang 0.0% 63.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jilin 0.0% 29.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0%
Liaoning 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
Total 0.0% 25.5% 0.0% 9.5% 0.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0%
Southwest China
Chongqing 6.0% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 3.0%
Sichuan 6.8% 48.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Guizhou 12.3% 38.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yunnan 2.0% 29.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Tibet 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.9%
Total 6.5% 36.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 3.1%
Northwest China
Gansu 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Shaanxi 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 2.9% 23.6% 0.0%
Qinghai 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Ningxia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Xinjiang 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 29.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 27.4% 7.2% 0.0%
Grand Total 9.4% 18.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.9% 4.5% 4.1% 2.4%
12
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Explanation on Equity Ratings
· BUY – share price will increase by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms
· SELL – share price will decrease by >20% within 12 months in absolute terms
· HOLD – no clear catalyst, and downgraded from BUY pending clearer signal to reinstate BUY or further downgrade to outright SELL