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Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 2
• Economic Outlook
• China Automotive Industry Briefing
• Market Outlook
Presentation Outline
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 3
(Source: China National Statistics Bureau)
5340859622 64332
73762
86911
103618
119555
141051
161587
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Urban/Rural Household RMB Saving Deposit (100 Mil Yuan)
Per Capita Disposable Income Of Urban Households (Yuan)
54255845
62806860
77038472
9422
10493
11759
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
China: Key Highlights and Assumptions (1)
• Real GDP growth of 10.6% in 2006, the fourth
consecutive year that exceeded 10%
• Saving rate is very high… overall saving rate is
an amazing 43% of GDP
• Number of households that can afford cars
increases significantly with diverse needs…
Market and consumer dynamics entering first
stage of maturity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Real GDP Growth (Percent)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 4
14021658
2251 2436
2952
4128
5612
9691
7620
5933
4382
32562662
2492
19491838
6600
7916
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%EXPORT
IMPORT
GROWTH RATE
(Source: China National Statistics Bureau)
28547 29876 3261936898
43500
55567
70477
88774
109870
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1998-2006 China Retail Sales (100 Mil RMB)
1998-2006 Fixed Asset Investment (100 Mil RMB)
• Investment and export led boom… more
modest growth in consumption
• Foreign trade enjoying strong surplus… 6.5%
of GDP in 2006. Exports crucial element of the
boom and strong growth in first half of 2007
ahead of removal of export rebates
• Retail sales growth of 15.4% in first half of
2007…highest increase since 1997
1998-2006 China Foreign Trade (100 Mil US$)
29153 3113534153
37595
4813652516
59501
67177
76410
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
China: Key Highlights and Assumptions (2)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 5
• Overtook the United Kingdom and France to become the fourth mostsignificant vehicle market in 2002
• Overtook Germany to become the third-largest vehicle market in 2003
• Overtook Japan by a very narrow margin to become the second-largest market in 2005
• Passenger car sales rose five-fold between 2001 and 2006
• Segmentation profile has only changed very gradually
Fastest-growing Market in the World… But Only Gradual Changes in the Segmentation Profile
OTHER
0.5%
MPV
4.1%
D
17.1%
C
41.1%
B
6.4%
A
16.3%
E
9.8%
SUV
4.7%MPV
4.6%
OTHER
0.4%
D
13.8%
C
42.0%
B
10.9%
A
13.3%
E
8.2%
SUV
6.8%
2001 2006
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 6
CHN JPN EUR US KOR
Almost All the Global OEMs Present in China Domestic OEMs Managed to Hold Their Own
� Market is becoming more fragmented: Hyundai lost market share while Chery raised its ranking
� Pricing war fired up in 2007: Major price cuts from FAW VW, SVW, DF Nissan, SGM, PSA, Chery
Chery won the most market share to 8.2%. A 48% increase in sales, raised ranking to #3
Toyota and Mazda market share gained 0.9pp to 7.5% and 3.9% respectively
By brand, VW remains #1 with 16.2% market share.FIAT sales dropped 21%.
GM still remains #1 as OEM, market share dropped to 9%
Hyundai was the largest market share loser. Market share dropped to 5.1% from 6.8% in 2006.
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 7
Major JVs/OEM Affiliations
Dongfeng
Motor
Note: This figure shows only major OEMs, even though
there are more than 100 automotive assemblers in China.
Shanghai Automotive
(SAIC)
Rover
Foreign Company
LocalCompany
Joint Venture
Tianjin
FAW Group
FHC
(Changchun)
(Hainan)
FCCJMC
FAW-VWShanghai
-VWTianjin
ToyotaTianjin-Toyota
Engine
Guangzhou
Toyota
Changan
Ford Mazda
Changan
Suzuki
GZ Toyota
Engine
Honda
Export JV
Dongfeng
Honda
Dongfeng
Honda Engine
Dongfeng
Motor
Fengshen
DPCA
Shanghai
GM
SiChuan
Toyota
Guangzhou
Honda
FAW-VW
Engine
SH-VW
Engine
BJ-HyundaiSH-GM
engineBBDC
Dongfeng
Yueda KiaChangfeng
Motor
Jiangling
Isuzu
Southeast
Motor
CFM
Engine
Qingling
FAW
Daihatsu
Brilliance
BMW
Nanjing
Fiat
33.4%25%
50%50%50%
50%
50%
40% 50%
35%
3%
No Equity
50%
50%
50%
65%
50%
50%
25%
10%
No Equity
10%
50.9%
14.9%
30%
50%
51%
40%
60%
40%
50%
50%
51.16%
35%
70%
30%50%40%
60%
60%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50% 50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%50%
50%
25%
25%
50%36%
50%25%
16.07%
50.14%
75%
12.5%
15%25%
JMCG (41%)
& Public (26%)
20%
50%
20%
51%
50%
50%
No Equity 50% 50%
50%
50%
GM DCX
VW TOYOTA HONDA
FORD
Daihatsu
PSA
MitsubishiSuzuki
Mazda
Nissan
Yulon-
Nissan
Daewoo
SsangyongKia
Isuzu
BMW
FIAT
Hyundai
BIG3 in China
Changan
Guangzhou
BAICChangfeng Fujian
Auto
Chery
China
Brilliance
NAC
MG
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 8
The Most Promising Domestic OEMs
13.5%
15.3%
18.4%
22.6%
23.3%
31.9%
47.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
h
FAW CAR
CHERY
SAIC
BRILLIANCE
FAW TIANJIN
HAIMA
CHANGAN
6.6%
6.7%
7.4%
9.3%
9.6%
10.3%
14.6%
17.2%
26.4%
43.7%
44.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
SH-VW
FAW-VW
GZ-HONDA
SH-GM
BJ-HYUNDAI
GZ-TOYOTA
FAW-MAZDA
BJ-BENZ
BR-BMW
DF-HONDA
CA-FORD
Chery is widely trusted by consumers due to its good performance in recent years
The Most Trusted JVs of Global OEMs
Known as the earliest JVs, SH-VW and FAW-VW are well recognized by consumers
Source: Car Consumer Survey 2007 by Tsinghua University
Consumer Recognition of Domestic OEMs and JVs
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 9
• Targeting reduction in energy use by 4% this year: appears quite unrealistic
• Gradually move to market based pricing
– Cutting subsidies
– Gasoline prices have risen by 56% between Jan 2003 and May 2006, 18% in 2006
• Current price of 93 Octane gasoline is 4.76 yuan (US$ 0.63 cents) per litre , around 1/3 of U.K. price
• Will track international oil prices in the future
• Further increases needed to support conservation measures
• Assuming fuel tax introduction in early 2009…will initially result in 30% increase in fuel price
• Currently consumption tax accounts for 6% of retail gasoline and 3% of the price of diesel at the pump
0123456789
102003
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
Price of 93# Gasoline (RMB/Litre)
Scenario 3: 100% increase
Scenario 2: 50% increaseScenario 1: 30% increase
July Mar Aug Dec Jan June Dec Mar May Jan
Fuel Prices Are Still Low…Only Modest Increases
Fuel Tax
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 10
New Consumption Tax Introduced from April 2006 …Biggest Impact on SUVs
New Tax Structure For Cars and SUVs
• Reduce fuel consumption and pollution
• Discourage ownership of cars with big engine size and SUVs
• Increase to five categories of engine size, with bigger taxation gap among the categories
• Local authorities are now beginning to reduce bias towards cars with engine size below 1.0L
Pre April 2006
SUV <2.4Litre was 3%
SUV >2.4 litre was 5%Major Impact
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Pre-April 2006 Post April 2006
Pre-April 2006 3% 5% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8%
Post April 2006 3% 3% 5% 9% 9% 12% 15%
<1.0L 1.0-
1.5L
1.5-
2.0L
2.0-
2.2L
2.2-
2.5L
2.5-
3.0L
3.0-
4.0L
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 11
Market Demand Drivers -Frequent New Product Launches
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007
CHERY A18
WEIZHI C1
ROEWE750
REFINE IV
FREEMA
RIO
SPACE WAGON
EPICA
S-MAX
LANDY
FAMILY
HAIMA 3 CV11
CR-V
LIVINA
COROLLA
MAGOTAN
OCTAVIA
PARK AVENUE
BINGYUE
CHERY A1
CHERY V2
XENIA
MG 7
VOYAGER
M1A
C-Class
MONDEO
CV 7
OTING SUV
B11 MPV
SPORTAGE
MG TF
M3
CD-1
F6
B21
M11
ZINGER
MAZDA 5
SERENA MPV
MAZDA 2
CH011
QISHI
WINGLE
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 12
全国高速公路里程(左轴)全国高速公路里程增长率(右轴)
1995-2010 CHINA TOTAL HIGHWAY MILEAGE (KM)
(Source: Ministry of Transportation, P.R.China)
2,1413,422 4,771
8,73311,605
16,31419,331
24,331
29,500
34,000
41,005
45,400
65,000
59.83%
39.42%
83.04%
32.89%
40.58%
18.49%
25.87%
21.24%
15.25%
20.60%
10.72%
43.17%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%Ranked number 2 in the world,expect to take place of U.S. in2008 as number 1 in the world
Market Demand Drivers -Massive Infrastructure Buildup
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 13
Market Demand Drivers -Increased Affordability Due to the Price War
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
102
Jan
/2004
Ap
r/2004
Ju
l/2004
Oct/
2004
Jan
/2005
Ap
r/2005
Ju
l/2005
Oct/
2005
Jan
/2006
Ap
r/2006
Ju
l/2006
Oct/
2006
Jan
/2007
Ap
r/2007
Ju
l/2007
Luxury Standard Compact Small Micro
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 14
China Car, SUV, MPV Sales Growth of 36% in 2006 (Domestic Produced Models Only)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
.
Feb
.
Mar.
Ap
r.
May
Ju
n.
Ju
l.
Au
g.
Sep
.
Oct.
No
v.
Dec.
Car
Sale
s (
Th
ou
san
d u
nit
s)
2005
2003
2004
2006
2007
2004 Car Sales: 2.54 million units (Domestic Built Vehicles Only)
2005 Car Sales: 3.17 million units (Domestic Built Vehicle Only)
2006 Car Sales: 4.2 million units (Domestic Built Vehicle Only)
2007 Car Sales: 5.24 million units (Forecast growth 24.8%)
2008 Car Sales: 6.15 million units (Forecast growth 17.3%)
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 15
Car Ownership Per 1000 Population Still Low in China
549 546
492468
439 432
253 238
3613.1 7.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
AU
S
GE
R
FR
A
US
UK
JP
N
MY
S.K
OR
TH
CH
N
IN
Car Per 1,000 Population 2006
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 16
China Prices Already Below U.S. Levels for Many Modelsin Segment A/B…But Prices Remain High in C and D
Civic and Corolla base version prices 21% and 20% higher than in U.S.
Accord and Camry base version prices 29% and 39% higher than in U.S.
Prices of Chevrolet models considerably lower in China
Price of Fit 25% lower than in U.S.
$24,900 $18,470 $35,137 $25,760 CamryToyota
$23,445 $17,345 $29,146 $21,592 SonataHyundai
$27,400 $18,625 $39,044 $24,093 AccordHonda
$16,895 $13,395 $18,232 $13,000 ElantraHyundai
$18,710 $15,010 $23,442 $18,232 CivicHonda
$15,615 $14,405 $26,020 $17,295 CorollaToyota
$14,015 $10,415 $14,820 $9,116 AccentHyundai
$15,170 $13,850 $13,258 $10,262 FitHonda
$13,525 $11,150 $10,392 $8,699 YarisToyota
$15,102 $10,560 $11,905 $8,670 AveoChevrolet
HIGHLOWHIGHLOW
USChina
Retail Price in China vs. US (in US$)
Model NameBrand
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 17
China Vehicle Production: IncrementalYear-over-Year Growth…2007 an Exceptional Year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
18002000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gro
wth
in
Vehic
le P
rod
ucti
on
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 18
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Sale
s (Thousand U
nits) Car
LCV
Truck and Bus
China Vehicle Sales…Over 13 Million Units in 2012
Car Sales: 6.28 million, LCV Sales: 2.89 millionHCV Sales: 879 K
2008 Sales
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 19
0
50
100
150
200
250
A B C D E
SU
V
MP
V
OT
HE
R
Sale
s I
ncre
ase (
2008 v
s 2
007)
2008 - Segment B/C Leads Growth Limited Growth Potential for Segment A
Sales Growth Forecast 2008 vs 2007 (Thousand units)
Expected to account for 48% all growth in 2008
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 20
Sales Growth Diffusing Away From Mega-Cities
25.0%
8.1%
20.6%
27.6%
33.4%33.7% 34.4%
36.0%
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
2005 2006
Xinjiang
Gansu
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Liaoning
Taiwan
Tibet
Sichuan
Yunnan
Guangxi
Guangdong
Fujian
Shandong
Hubei
HunanJiangxi
Hainan
Inner Mongolia
NingxiaQinghai
Hebei
Shanxi
Henan
Anhui
Zhejiang
JiangsuShaanxi)
Guizhou
Tianjin
Shanghai
Beijing
Per Capita GDP in US$
Car Ownership Per ‘000 people
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
50>5000
3000 - 5000
1000 - 3000
<1000
18
5
<5
More opportunities for local brands
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 21
MSRPMSRP
CHINA
MSRPMSRP
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
PURCHASE TAXCONSUMPTION TAX
HIGH REGISTRATION FEES
PURCHASE TAXCONSUMPTION TAX
HIGH REGISTRATION FEES
Generally 30-35% of MSRP
CONSUMPTION TAXCONSUMPTION TAX Generally 5-25%
High Cost of Ownership, Environment, and Infrastructure Hold Back Car Consumption in Mega Cities
The extra costs Chinese consumers have to bear hold back car consumption
FUEL TAX??FUEL TAX??
TOLL CHARGEROAD MAINTANACE FEE
TOLL CHARGEROAD MAINTANACE FEE
ROAD TAXFUELTAX
ROAD TAXFUELTAX
OTHER FEES/CAR TAX
OTHER FEES/CAR TAX
OTHER FEESOTHER FEES
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 22
• Aims to control the total fuel consumption growth within 50% when PARC reaches 55 million units
– Reduce average vehicle fuel consumption by 15%
– Encourage use of small displacement vehicles
– Government funding hybrid/fuel cell vehicle program in “863” project to develop alternative fuel and powertrain technology
• Focus on promoting purely Chinese car manufacturers
– Aim to increase market share of local brands to at least 50% in the passenger car market
• Strong support of independent R&D activities
– Direct finance support and indirect tax incentives
• Aims to consolidate State-owned Enterprises
Government Policy - 11th Five-Year Plan Emphasis on Independent Technical Development
• Traditional Big 3 (FAW, Dongfeng, and SAIC) are facing increasing pressure to build up independent passenger car brands and a high local R&D capability
• New emerging local Chinese companies will be able to obtain more government funding to accelerate independent technical development
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 23
Technical Road Map of Chinese R&D Build-up
Increasing R&D capabilit
ies and technology tr
ansfer, stro
nger local s
upplier b
ase
Lo
w e
nd
Over 60 Local OEMs
Step 1: Imitation, reverse engineering of foreign OEM
models. R&D complete outsourcing
Lo
w –
to-
Me
diu
mF
ull
Pro
du
ct
Lin
e-u
p
Shakeout, Market Reshuffling
Step 2: Improve collaboration with international suppliers, joint development with overseas R&D institutes
Around 10 major local
OEMs
Step 3: Synchronize the supply chain, independent development, increasing R&D capabilities and technology transfer
Pre 2000 2000-2015 Post 2015
Step 4: Be able to compete with global OEMs
Further consolidation?
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 24
Local OEMs Product Line-ups Shift Up…More Direct Competition with Global OEMs
TH
OU
SA
ND
RM
B
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FAW
-XIA
LIC
HE
RY
GE
ELY
BR
ILLI
AN
CE
HA
FEI
BY
DC
HA
NG
AN
HA
IMA
LIFA
NFA
W C
AR
SA
IC
NA
G
V5
Vision
Merrie Flyer
F3
CV11
CV6
Zunchi
JunjieFamilia II
Freema
520Lubao
Saibao VVela
Xiali
Besturn
Roewe 750
MG75
BJ212
1996-2006 2006
More higher priced models expected after 2006, including
Chery F11, Geely GH-1 and FAW HQE etc
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 25
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Market Share Trend by OEM Country of Origin
CHN
JPN
EUR
US
KOR
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 26
China Profitability Under Pressure
Downward Pressure on Prices
• Price war continues
• Greater consumer choice and intense competition
• Looming over-capacity in the medium and long term
Upward Pressure on Costs
• Faster pace of new model launch
– Higher tooling and product costs
• Rising commodity and oil prices
• Higher sales and marketing costs– Greater competition
Cost Reduction Measures
• Greater scale economies and efficiencies
• Higher local content levels
• Fresh investments in “lower cost” cities in interior
• Greater use of domestic suppliers
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc.2007 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 27
Conclusion
• The Chinese Government will continue to offer favourable policies to support domestic OEMs, as auto sector is regarded as pillar industry
• The relationship between global OEMs and domestic OEMs becomes strained due to more direct competition and violation of IP rights
• Tight relationships are also likely to appear within JVs over the coming years as increasing technology transfer and a stronger local component supplier base enable domestic OEMs to seek independence
• The domestic OEMs are expected to continue to grow despite the production ramp up by global OEMs
• Energy consumption becomes a constraint. Market competition willgradually shift from price war to energy efficiency