china and the global automotive industry · · 2015-04-10china and the global automotive industry...
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China and theGlobal Automotive
IndustryDeutsche Bank
Access China Conference 2004
February 23, 2004
Your Business Partner in China
ASIMCO at a GlanceASIMCO at a GlanceASIMCO at a GlanceCompany
Founded
Financial Profile
Headquarters
Products
ManufacturingLocations
Customers
Funding
Company
Founded
Financial Profile
Headquarters
Products
ManufacturingLocations
Customers
Funding
Independent, China based manufacturing organization with tooling, casting, machining, assembly and sourcing capability
February, 1994
$350 million Sales
Beijing, PRC
Machined Castings (gray iron, ductile and aluminum); Brake Systems and Products; Diesel Fuel Injection Systems; Rotating Electrics;Camshafts; Piston Rings and Rubber Products
11 operating units in nine provinces in China; 2 manufacturing facilities and a sales and service organization in the U.S.
70% China; 30% Non China, primarily U.S.
US institutions
ASIMCO Financial SummaryASIMCO Financial SummaryASIMCO Financial Summary(US$ Million)
Sales
0100200300400500
01A 02A 03A 04P 05P
(US$ Million)
EBITDA
0
20
40
60
80
01A 02A 03A 04P 05P
(US$ Million)
Profit after Tax
0
10
20
30
40
01A 02A 03A 04P 05P
Actual: 2001 to 2003
Plan: 2004-2005 based on existing programs only
ASIMCO Anhui, CR Sub-JV
ASIMCO Tianwei, ASIMCO Casting
ASIMCO Meilian
ASIMCO Shanxi
ASIMCO Yizheng
ASIMCO Nanyue
ASIMCO Shendian; DRA Sub-JV
Beijing
ASIMCO Guangzhou
ASIMCO Intl.Cleveland,Ohio
ASIMCO CamshaftGrand Haven, MI
ASIMCO’s Global OperationsASIMCOASIMCO’’ss Global OperationsGlobal Operations
ASIMCO Products for the Sedan Powertrain and ChassisASIMCO Products for the Sedan ASIMCO Products for the Sedan PowertrainPowertrain and Chassisand Chassis
ASIMCO Products for the TruckEngine and Diesel Fuel SystemASIMCO Products for the TruckASIMCO Products for the TruckEngine and Diesel Fuel SystemEngine and Diesel Fuel System
ASIMCOASIMCO’’ss Top 20 Customers Top 20 Customers -- 20020033
The Global Auto Industry
Global Vehicle Production (Units)Global Vehicle Production (Units)Global Vehicle Production (Units)Unit: ‘000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 2010
Global Auto’sA Growth Industry!
Source: autopolis: “World Auto Industry Outlook to 2010,” June 2003
Future Growth by RegionFuture Growth by RegionFuture Growth by Region
2003 2010 %Unit: ‘000
Western Europe 16,443 15,603 (5%)
Japan 9,875 9,615 (3%)
NAFTA 15,333 18,169 +18%
Pacific Rim 8,909 16,424 +84%
South America 2,050 2,623 +28%
Eastern & Central Europe 2,790 3,809 +37%
Other 1,550 2,074 +34%
Total 56,949 68,316 +20%
Source: autopolis: “World Auto Industry Outlook to 2010,” June 2003
Have Recovered Somewhat, but US Components Stocks Have Still Underperformed the MarketHave Recovered Somewhat, but Have Recovered Somewhat, but US Components US Components Stocks HaveStocks Have Still Still Underperformed the MarketUnderperformed the Market
MV: Market Value of Equity as of December 31, 1998/2003 DJIA: Dow Jones Industrial Average
Source: Dow Jones, Multex
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
97 98
MV of 20 LargestComponents Companies
$61.9B $57.7B-7%
DJIA9,181 10,425
+14%
96 99 00 01 02 03
Manufacturing
• Growing Transportation Needs
• Strategy:Provide World Class Technology at Affordable Prices
• Growing Transportation Needs
• Strategy:Provide World Class Technology at Affordable Prices
ASIMCOASIMCO
• Global Pressures to Reduce Costs
• Strategy:
• Global Pressures to Reduce Costs
• Strategy:
Market
Provide World Class “QSD”at Competitive Prices
The China OpportunityThe China OpportunityThe China Opportunity
The China Market OpportunityVehicle Sales - UnitsThe China Market OpportunityThe China Market OpportunityVehicle Sales - Units
(‘000)
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03E
TrucksTrucks
BusesBuses
Passenger CarsPassenger Cars+36%
+30%
WTOAsian Crisis
4,000
3,000
37% GPA
Austerity Program,Deflation
2,000
1,000
0
China - Next 10 Years“Deja Vu All Over Again!”China China -- Next 10 YearsNext 10 Years“Deja Vu All Over Again!”
Vehicles Produced(Units ’000)
12,000Japan
1965 to 198013% GPA
China1998 to 2003
21% GPA
China 2003 to 2013 10% GPA?
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
068 7466 7270 76 78 80
98 040200 06 08 10 12
Effect of WTOEffect of WTOEffect of WTO
Vehicle Financing None Beginning
2000 2003 %
Different Models 11 51 +364%Produced in China
Price:Buick Regal $42,322 $31,898 -24%Citroen (RLC1.4) $15,919 $10,641 -33%Changan Alto $ 7,001 $ 4,571 -35%
Passenger Car Unit Sales 612,533 1,971,601 48% GPA
The China Market OpportunityTruck Sales - UnitsThe China Market OpportunityTruck Sales - Units
(‘000) % GPA% GPA1,400
49%49%
18%18%
(9%)(9%)
1%1%
98 99 00 01 02 03E
13%13%
Heavy Trucks>14.0 Ton GVW
Light Trucks1.8-6.0 Ton GVW
Medium Trucks6.0-14.0 Ton GVW
Mini Trucks<1.8 Ton GVW
ALL TRUCKSALL TRUCKS
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
The China Manufacturing OpportunityGlobal Manufacturing TrendsThe China Manufacturing OpportunityThe China Manufacturing OpportunityGlobal Manufacturing TrendsGlobal Manufacturing Trends
Jap. China China Mexico E.Europe
Population 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500(Millions)
2000 + U.S. W.Europe IndiaIndia
1990’s
1980’s
1970’s
1950 to1970’s
(Four Tigers: S. Korea, TW, HK, Singapore)
Jap. Mexico E.EuropeU.S. W.
Europe
Jap.U.S. W.Europe
Jap.U.S. W.Europe
U.S. W.Europe
Since the 1970’s, industrial developmenthas spread to countries with
larger populations and lower costs.
The Global Work ForceNow Larger and Lower Cost Than EverThe Global Work ForceNow LargerLarger and Lower Cost Than Ever
China China IndiaIndia
Lowest Hourly Labor Rate
Lowest Hourly Labor Rate
Jap.U.S. W.Europe
$18.50$18.50
$3.00$3.00
$1.60$1.60
$0.36$0.36
PricesPrices
As China and India develop their manufacturing capability, pressure on global prices
will intensify
3.5 billion people3.5 billion people
Jap.U.S. W. Europe
W.Europe
U.S.
U.S.
Jap.
Jap.
W. EuropeMexico
Mexico E. Europe
E. Europe
China’s “Human Capital”The Key to Unlocking China’s PotentialChinaChina’’s s ““Human CapitalHuman Capital””The Key to Unlocking ChinaThe Key to Unlocking China’’s Potentials Potential
Annual Additions to Work ForceAnnual Additions to Work Force -- 10 million
University Enrollment 2002University Enrollment 2002 13 million 9 million
Growth from Previous YearGrowth from Previous Year 3%% Engineering Majors% Engineering Majors 6%
26%39%
But, Biggest Problem Operating in China is Closing China’s “Management Gap”But, Biggest Problem Operating in China is But, Biggest Problem Operating in China is Closing ChinaClosing China’’s s ““Management GapManagement Gap””
Legacy of State Ownership and Unbridled EntrepreneurialismLegacy of State Ownership and Unbridled Entrepreneurialism
Developed EconomiesDeveloped Economies ChinaChina
Bureaucratic Entrepreneurial Bureaucratic Entrepreneurial
The China Components IndustryThe China Components IndustryThe China Components Industry
“A Fragmented Industry”1,540 Registered Enterprises3,500-8,500 Non-Registered
Components Statistics($ billion)
2001 2002 2003
Sales 21.0 28.0 36.2
Imports 2.6 3.0 7.2
Exports 1.6 2.2 5.7
Average Annual Sales Per Supplier:
$1.7 to $3.6 million
Source: China Auto Industry Year Book, 2003 figures come from China Association of Auto Manufacturers
Types of Suppliers in ChinaTypes of Suppliers in ChinaTypes of Suppliers in China
Type Comment
1. State Owned Enterprises Relatively large; generally slow to change and adapt to global standards
2. Private Chinese Companies Smaller enterprises; react quickly, but generally difficult to control and manage
3. Foreign Invested Enterprises Global standards
China: Opportunity or Threat?China: Opportunity or Threat?China: Opportunity or Threat?
Capitalizing on the Opportunity
ASIMCO’s Experience
Phases of DevelopmentPhases of DevelopmentPhases of Development
Acquisition1995 to 1997
Concept1990 to 1994
Management Development 1998 to 2001
Corporate Development2002 Forward
ActivityPeriod
IV
III
II
I
Phase
Evolution of the ASIMCO GroupEvolution of the ASIMCO GroupEvolution of the ASIMCO Group
August1990
December1991
August1992
January1993
August1993
February1994
August1994
JFP decides to start company
in AsiaJFP moves to
Hong KongJFP’s first
trip to China
Decision tofocus on
componentsASIMCOformed
Initial capital$158 million
FirstJoint Venture
100 factoriesin 40 cities!
ASIMCO’s Components StrategyASIMCOASIMCO’’ss Components StrategyComponents Strategy
To create a global, China based, multiproduct components company with:
• Internationally competitive quality and service
• Significant to dominant market shares in each of its major products
• Penetration of the OEM, aftermarket and export markets
• Economies of scale in management; and
• Access to global sources of debt and equity capital
Evolution of the ASIMCO GroupEvolution of the ASIMCO GroupEvolution of the ASIMCO Group
September
November
July June
August
December
April August November
December
ASIMCO AnhuiRubber
ASIMCO Tianwei
Fuel Injection
ASIMCO ShendianStarters,
Alternators
ASIMCO Nanyue
Fuel Injection
ASIMCO MeilianBrakes
ASIMCO YizhengPiston Rings
Hubei DRASub-JV
Chicago RawhideSub-JV
ASIMCO ShanxiEngine Blocks with
Caterpillar
ASIMCO Intl.ASIMCO Casting
ASIMCO Guangzhou
19981997199619951994
June
1999 2003
ASIMCO Camshaft
April
ASIMCO’s StrategyASIMCOASIMCO’’s Strategys Strategy
Market Opportunity in China
Strategy Provide the world’s best technology at affordable prices by manufacturing in China
Rationale Technology is key differentiating factor in China
Tactic Strategic, technology relationships
Examples License and JV:NPR – Piston Rings; Camshafts; Valve Seat Inserts
Joint Venture:Caterpillar – Engine Block and Head Castings
Acquisition: CamshaftsASIMCO R&D: Tech Center to be established
ASIMCO’s StrategyASIMCOASIMCO’’s Strategys Strategy
Manufacturing Opportunity in China
Strategy Provide globally competitive prices at internationalstandards of quality, service and delivery
Rationale Globalization and cost pressures
Tactics “Total Quality Management”Export channels through strategic relationships andASIMCO International
China’s Management GapChinaChina’’s Management Gaps Management Gap
Legacy of State Ownership and Unbridled EntrepreneurialismLegacy of State Ownership and Unbridled Entrepreneurialism
Developed EconomiesDeveloped Economies ChinaChina
Bureaucratic Entrepreneurial Bureaucratic Entrepreneurial
ASIMCO’s
“New China” Manager
Program
ASIMCOASIMCO’’s Managements Management
Management
Mindset Closed Open
Age 40 - 60 30 - 50
Education Engineering Engineering/Management
Experience SOE SOE/Global Companies
Exposure China Only China/Outside China
Old China New China
ASIMCO’s Mission StatementASIMCOASIMCO’’ss Mission StatementMission Statement
Core PurposeTo create a truly global company which is unique because of its ability to combine the best in China with the best from the rest of the world.
Core ValuesEmployees of ASIMCO believe in Teamwork and accept Personal Responsibility for meeting goals. As part of an increasingly competitive global economy, they understand the need for Continuous Improvement. Above all, they seek Opportunity and set Significant Goals for themselves and for ASIMCO.
ASIMCO’s GoalTo be recognized as the global leader in all our products.
ASIMCO Management SystemASIMCO Management System1. Common Vision, Values and Goal
2. Performance Management
3. Leadership Development
4. Incentives based upon “Equity Value Added”
5. Internal and External Functional Training
6. Best Practices – Quarterly GM Meetings
7. Modern Quality Systems
8. Transparent, US GAAP Financials
9. Fourth Shift ERP System
ASIMCOASIMCO““One of the 10 Best Employers in ChinaOne of the 10 Best Employers in China””
1. The Portman Ritz-Carlton, Shanghai
2. Microsoft (China)Co., Ltd.3. Roche(China) Ltd.
4. Abbot Laboratories – China
5. ASIMCO
6. Navion (Shanghai) Software Development Co., Ltd.
7. Anheuser-Busch Asia Inc.
8. Shanghai Hormel Foods Co., Ltd.9. Amway (China) Co., Ltd.
10. Shangri-La International Hotels & Resorts Ltd.
* Survey conducted by the Asian Wall Street Journal, the Far Eastern Economic Review and Hewitt Associates in 2001
ASIMCO Group TTM Sales GrowthASIMCO Group TTM Sales GrowthASIMCO Group TTM Sales GrowthSales Ratio:Recent / Previous 12 Months
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Auto unit sales growth falls from 8% to 1% in 1996
“New China”Manager Program
Auto unit sales growth 2% in 1998
“Asian Crisis” ASIMCO Vision, Values, Goal
14 of 15 companies export in 2000
2002 2003
SARS
ASIMCO Camshaft joins ASIMCO
ASIMCO Rolling 12 Month EBITDAASIMCO Rolling 12 Month EBITDAEBITDA has more than quintupled since “New China” Manager Program began in 1997
“New China”Manager Program
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Repositioning the Global Supply Base:Repositioning the Global Supply Base:ChinaChina’’s Potential Roles Potential Role
Not an “All or None” Proposition! Not an Not an ““All or NoneAll or None”” Proposition! Proposition!
The global supply industry has to change to reflectnew economic realities
All U.S. manufacturing will move to Low Cost Countries such as China
True FalseStatement
Global Assembler:
“We may never source more than 5 to 6% of our total spend directly from China, but we hope that every one of our suppliers will be sourcing at least 50%.”
Common China Sourcing ProblemsCommon China Sourcing ProblemsCommon China Sourcing Problems
Common Problems Comment
Overall Difficulty Suppliers are spread throughout a large country
Inconsistent Quality Inconsistent implementation of quality systems
Time Difference 12 hours with U.S.; 6 hours with Europe
Distance (delivery) Long supply chain
Language Language skills less prevalent outside major cities
What do Global Customers Want? Combining the Best of China and the Rest of the WorldWhat do Global Customers Want? What do Global Customers Want? Combining the Best of China and the Rest of the WorldCombining the Best of China and the Rest of the World
Requirements Advantage
1. World Class Quality, Service and Delivery U.S., Europe, Japan
2. Development Capability U.S., Europe, Japan
3. Competitive Price China
4. Yearly Price Reductions China
ASIMCOASIMCO’’ss StrategyStrategy
Creating a “Unique” Sourcing Opportunity
Common Problems Solution
Overall Difficulty Group concept – “One Stop Shopping”
Inconsistent Quality Majority ownership, modern management
Time Difference Sales, service and product engineering support in customer’s time zone
Distance (delivery) Warehousing
Language Bilingual sales and service personnel
ASIMCO Camshaft SpecialtiesASIMCO Camshaft SpecialtiesASIMCO Camshaft SpecialtiesBecame Part of ASIMCO:
Sales:
Products:
Technology:
Customers:
Location:
Became Part of ASIMCO:
Sales:
Products:
Technology:
Customers:
Location:
April 9, 2003
$70 million
Steel, Cast and Powdered Metal Assembled Camshafts
Nippon Piston Ring
DaimlerChrysler, General Motors, Ford, Caterpillar, Cummins, Isuzu
Grand Haven, Michigan
Benefits to ASIMCOBenefits to ASIMCOBenefits to ASIMCO
1. Major Customers
2. World Class Technology
3. Leading Global Market Position in Camshafts
4. Well Performing Business
5. Good Management
6. Substantial Asset Value
7. Favorable industry trends
New ParadigmExample: ASIMCO CamshaftsNew ParadigmNew ParadigmExample: ASIMCO CamshaftsExample: ASIMCO Camshafts
US/China China China US→USChina →China
US→USChina →China
US US US US US
24 Hour Coverage Lower Cost Lower Labor &
Equipment CostCritical to
QualityCustomer
Safety
Design
Raw Material:
Casting
Forging
Bar Stock
Assembled Cam
RoughMachining
FinishedMachining
Test
Inspection
Shipping
Service
Process
Historical
New Paradigm
Advantage
New ParadigmWin/Win/Win PropositionNew ParadigmNew ParadigmWin/Win/Win PropositionWin/Win/Win Proposition
Winners Advantage
Cost advantage of China sourcing, but safetyCustomers
of dealing with a proven and trusted supplier
Increased profitability and global Suppliers
competitiveness
Employees More opportunities with a company with a future
SummarySummarySummary
1. China Automotive Market -- Rapidly assuming its role as one of the world’s largest and most vibrant automotive industries
2. Development Factors -- WTO is having a profound impact on China’s passenger car market; while the development of China’s highway system is having a similar impact on the commercial vehicle segment
3. Global Cost Pressures - Will continue, and a China manufacturing strategy will be essential to maintaining global competitiveness
4. The Components Sector - China’s components industry is fragmented, and developing professional managements remains the key issue; the global supply industry must change to adapt to new economic realities
5. New Paradigm – China’s development as both a market and manufacturing opportunity will give rise to a “New Paradigm” in the components industry