China and the Environment

Challenges

• population• arable land loss• air pollution• greenhouse gases• water pollution• energy

population

• 1.3 billion and counting• policy working

– similar fertility rate to U.S.– will level off at 1.6 billion in 2050– declines after that

• can modernization help the slowdown?

arable land loss

• net annual loss since 1950: 1,800 sq. mi. (Starr, 118)

• this is accelerating during reform period• desertification also an issue

– 16 million acres lost– 40 million acres at risk– dust storms in Beijing

• Chinese buying U.S. farmland (latimes.com)• leasing land in Laos, Cuba, Mexico (People’s

Daily Online)

“maximal use of limited land”

air pollution

• coal burning– especially unfiltered in rural areas: 70%

smoke and dust, 92% sulfur dioxide (Sunday Herald)

– by 2020, 100 million tons per year

• car smog– rapid growth– if every Chinese family 2-car family, 600

million cars

greenhouse gases

• fourth in the world (Starr, 179)• could pass U.S. soon• support Kyoto in principle,

negotiating limits, according to official at Foreign Ministry

• sustainable?

water pollution

water

• 1995: 36.5 billion tons of sewage and industrial waste into water (Starr, 180)

• 90% water flowing through major cities undrinkable

• water depletion: most serious in North

energy

• one 100W light bulb per head, per year currently (Sunday Herald)

• net importer of oil now– responsible for 1/3 of the rise in daily oil

consumption last year – predict same this year: 1/3 of 2 million barrel per

day increase (Sunday Herald)

• energy-intensive industries – steel, aluminum, plastics– second, behind Japan, in oil usage (Sunday

Herald)

Green development

• 2000 environmental NGO’s (Washington Post)

• articles in media• green GDP