China’s Environment: China’s Environment: Issues and ObstaclesIssues and Obstacles

Center for Industrial EcologyCenter for Industrial Ecology

Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Yale School of Forestry & Environmental StudiesStudies

耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心

Prof. Marian ChertowPresentation to:

Mandarin China – Yale Educational TravelOctober 2008

OutlineOutline

The Environmental Problem in ContextThe Environmental Problem in Context

Specific Environmental ConditionsSpecific Environmental Conditions (Doom and Gloom)(Doom and Gloom)

Government ResponsesGovernment Responses

Special Edition: Special Edition: Three Gorges DamThree Gorges Dam

What Shall We Think About All of This?What Shall We Think About All of This?

Pan Yue, Vice Minister of Pan Yue, Vice Minister of Environmental ProtectionEnvironmental Protection

"In just 30 years, China has made "In just 30 years, China has made economic advances that took Western economic advances that took Western countries a century to accomplish," countries a century to accomplish,"

"It is equally true that environmental "It is equally true that environmental problems suffered by Western problems suffered by Western countries over those 100 years have countries over those 100 years have been visited upon China within just been visited upon China within just three decades."three decades."

C. Simon, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, February 18, 2007C. Simon, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, February 18, 2007

Rapid industrialization and Rapid industrialization and economic growth also imposeseconomic growth also imposes

great costs to societygreat costs to society Rising health care costs, rising water Rising health care costs, rising water

treatment costs, rising land costs for treatment costs, rising land costs for arable/habitable land often hidden but arable/habitable land often hidden but key factors.key factors.

External costs of industrial activities External costs of industrial activities can become large enough to divert can become large enough to divert resources from other activities that resources from other activities that promote economic growthpromote economic growth

Just how much is China’s Just how much is China’s net growth?net growth? Vaclav Smil has estimated that despite 8-10% Vaclav Smil has estimated that despite 8-10%

annual growth figures, the economic costs of annual growth figures, the economic costs of China’s ecosystem decline and environmental China’s ecosystem decline and environmental pollution equals ANNUALLY at least 10% of pollution equals ANNUALLY at least 10% of GDP. GDP.

Ecosystem damage costs China about 9% of Ecosystem damage costs China about 9% of GDP, according to the United Nations GDP, according to the United Nations Development Program. Development Program.

Pan Yue, MEP vice minister, warned in 2005: Pan Yue, MEP vice minister, warned in 2005:

"The [economic] miracle will end soon because "The [economic] miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace."the environment can no longer keep pace."

Some notable Some notable environmental progress…environmental progress…

Beijing/other cities improved air qualityBeijing/other cities improved air quality Some river water quality improvedSome river water quality improved More conservation areasMore conservation areas Major replanting in forestsMajor replanting in forests More awareness, more regulationMore awareness, more regulation More money to address the situationMore money to address the situation

1111thth Five Year Plan Five Year Plan 2006-2010 2006-2010

The current plan contains major The current plan contains major environmental goals: environmental goals:

20% improvement in energy efficiency20% improvement in energy efficiency

10% decreases in major pollutants. 10% decreases in major pollutants.

30% decrease in water consumption 30% decrease in water consumption

investment in environmental protection to investment in environmental protection to have increased from 1.3 percent to 1.6 have increased from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent of GDP.percent of GDP.

Air pollutionAir pollution

According to China’s evaluation, two-thirds of the 338 According to China’s evaluation, two-thirds of the 338 cities for which air-quality data are available are cities for which air-quality data are available are considered polluted—2/3 of them moderately or severely considered polluted—2/3 of them moderately or severely so. so.

China has had 16 of top 20 cities with the worst air China has had 16 of top 20 cities with the worst air pollution pollution

Acid rain falls on 30% of the country. Acid rain falls on 30% of the country. As much as 90 percent of China's sulfur dioxide emissions As much as 90 percent of China's sulfur dioxide emissions

and 50 percent of its particulate emissions are the result of and 50 percent of its particulate emissions are the result of coal use.coal use.

Water qualityWater quality Aquifers in 90% of Chinese cities Aquifers in 90% of Chinese cities

are pollutedare polluted 75% of rivers through urban areas 75% of rivers through urban areas

are unfit for drinking or fishing, are unfit for drinking or fishing, 30% of rivers unfit for use in 30% of rivers unfit for use in

agriculture or industry. agriculture or industry. 700 million people drink water 700 million people drink water

contaminated with animal and human contaminated with animal and human waste. waste.

2/3 of rural people do not have 2/3 of rural people do not have piped water.piped water.

Source: Economy, E. Foreign Affairs. Sept/Oct 2007

Water quantityWater quantity 2/3 of 656 cities suffer water 2/3 of 656 cities suffer water

shortages for domestic and shortages for domestic and industrial useindustrial use

severe water scarcity in Northern China severe water scarcity in Northern China threatens sustained economic growththreatens sustained economic growth

large scale diversion of water from Yangtze large scale diversion of water from Yangtze River to northern cities, including Beijing River to northern cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, sinking from extraction of and Tianjin, sinking from extraction of groundwater.groundwater.

66% of water goes to agriculture 66% of water goes to agriculture which uses 10-20% more water which uses 10-20% more water than western counterparts than western counterparts

Source: Economy, Elizabeth. Great Leap Backwards? Foreign Affairs. Sept/Oct 2007

Land and soilLand and soil Soil erosion affects 19% of China’s land area, salinization Soil erosion affects 19% of China’s land area, salinization

on 9% of landon 9% of land

Desertification Desertification leads to the loss of about 5,800 square leads to the loss of about 5,800 square miles/year of grasslands, roughly the size of Connecticut, miles/year of grasslands, roughly the size of Connecticut, with dust causing 1/3 of China's air pollution. with dust causing 1/3 of China's air pollution.

Deforestation a major cause of soil erosion and flooding Deforestation a major cause of soil erosion and flooding with 4x increase in sandstorms since 1990.with 4x increase in sandstorms since 1990.

As much as ten percent of China's farmland is believed to As much as ten percent of China's farmland is believed to be polluted, and every year 12 million tons of grain are be polluted, and every year 12 million tons of grain are contaminated with heavy metals absorbed from the soil.contaminated with heavy metals absorbed from the soil.

Sediment discharge on Yangtze River Sediment discharge on Yangtze River greater than the combined discharges of the Nile and greater than the combined discharges of the Nile and

the Amazon – 2 longest riversthe Amazon – 2 longest rivers

Shortened navigable channels 56% between 1949-1990Shortened navigable channels 56% between 1949-1990

Coal dominates China’s Coal dominates China’s energy mixenergy mix

Coal use in China is about 65% of total Coal use in China is about 65% of total primary energy requirement.primary energy requirement.

While coal’s share is down from 10 years ago, While coal’s share is down from 10 years ago, total coal use is still on the rise.total coal use is still on the rise.

Chinese Primary Energy Supply, 1992

Hydro

4.79%

Petroleum

19.01%

Natural gas

2.08%

Nuclear

0.02%

Coal

74.09%

Total Primary Energy Supply

29.3 Quadrillion BTUs

Chinese Primary Energy Supply, 2002

Hydro

7.24%

Petroleum

24.53%

Natural gas

3.10%

Nuclear

0.55%

Coal

64.58%

Total Primary Energy Supply

43.2 Quadrillion BTUs

Proved coal reserves - end 2004Proved coal reserves - end 2004

Source: BP

Climate change (global Climate change (global warming)warming) Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22) concentration is the big driver of ) concentration is the big driver of

climate change with burning of fossil fuels single largest climate change with burning of fossil fuels single largest variablevariable

Annual average air temperature has increased by 0.5-0.8°C Annual average air temperature has increased by 0.5-0.8°C over the last century with most in the last 50 years. over the last century with most in the last 50 years.

With reliance on coal, China has surpassed the U.S. in With reliance on coal, China has surpassed the U.S. in total carbon emissions and unlikely to shift from total carbon emissions and unlikely to shift from dependence on coaldependence on coal

Geography and climatic conditions of China already give rise to Geography and climatic conditions of China already give rise to frequent extreme eventsfrequent extreme events

Source: Economy, Elizabeth. Great Leap Backwards? Foreign Affairs. Sept/Oct 2007

Climate change (global Climate change (global warming)warming)

How China will be affected: How China will be affected:

30% drop in precipitation in seven major river regions, 30% drop in precipitation in seven major river regions, 37% decline in wheat, rice, and corn yields after 37% decline in wheat, rice, and corn yields after

2050,2050, Yangtze and Yellow rivers could overflow from melting Yangtze and Yellow rivers could overflow from melting

glaciers from Tibet and then dry up, glaciers from Tibet and then dry up,

Coastal cities include 3 of the 4 largest in China and Coastal cities include 3 of the 4 largest in China and are threatened by sea level rising are threatened by sea level rising an average of 2.5 mm an average of 2.5 mm annually over the last 50 years annually over the last 50 years . .

Source: Economy, Elizabeth. Great Leap Backwards? Foreign Affairs. Sept/Oct 2007

Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2008). Revolutionizing China’s environmental protection. Science, Vol. 413, 37-38

CO2 emissions are rising in step with growing GDP

Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2005). China’s environment in a globalizing world. Nature, Vol.435, 1175-1186

Transportation in China: highways, planes, and automobiles

China and International China and International Fuel Efficiency StandardsFuel Efficiency Standards

National Geographic website 2008

Health and the publicHealth and the public

Premature deaths Premature deaths due to respiratory due to respiratory disease related to disease related to air pollution air pollution 750,000/yr750,000/yr

190 million sick 190 million sick from drinking from drinking contaminated contaminated waterwater

19% rise in cancer 19% rise in cancer rates in urban rates in urban areas, 23% in rural areas, 23% in rural areas since 2005areas since 2005

Source: Economy, Elizabeth. Foreign Affairs. Sept/Oct 2007

Trends in Trends in Environmental Environmental

GovernanceGovernance In general, the Chinese environmental In general, the Chinese environmental

state has been changing along three state has been changing along three parallel lines:parallel lines: modernising the existing environmental modernising the existing environmental

regulatory networks; regulatory networks; decentralising environmental policy and decentralising environmental policy and

strengthening the environmental capacity at strengthening the environmental capacity at all levels; all levels;

involving non-state actors and institutions in involving non-state actors and institutions in pollution control.pollution control.

Shi Han 2005

ChronologyChronology 11stst impetus to add environmental protection within impetus to add environmental protection within

the Chinese govt was preparations for the 1972 UN the Chinese govt was preparations for the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE)Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE)

88thth Five Year Plan in 1991 lists environmental Five Year Plan in 1991 lists environmental protection among the “major tasks and important protection among the “major tasks and important targets for the following 5-10 years.”targets for the following 5-10 years.”

1996 – turning point – 41996 – turning point – 4thth National Conference on National Conference on Environmental ProtectionEnvironmental Protection

2000 – adoption of 102000 – adoption of 10thth Five Year Plan for Social and Five Year Plan for Social and Economic Development has specific Five-Year Plan Economic Development has specific Five-Year Plan for Environmental Protection, concrete objectives for Environmental Protection, concrete objectives and numerical targets.and numerical targets.

March 2008 – SEPA March 2008 – SEPA becomes a Ministry! becomes a Ministry! With a Minister!With a Minister! China established five new China established five new super ministriessuper ministries, one , one

of which is the Ministry of Environmental of which is the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) launched July 1, 2008.Protection (MEP) launched July 1, 2008.

Previously, prevention and monitoring of pollution Previously, prevention and monitoring of pollution was spread over multiple governmental was spread over multiple governmental departments – consolidated:departments – consolidated: Water and industrial pollutionWater and industrial pollution Management of biodiversityManagement of biodiversity Approval and assessment of national ecology projectsApproval and assessment of national ecology projects Nuclear safetyNuclear safety

http://www.asiaeconomywatch.co.uk/2008/03/24/china-releases-new-greener-targets/

Distribution of powersDistribution of powers National levelNational level

Environmental and Resources Protection Committee (ERPC) Environmental and Resources Protection Committee (ERPC) of the National People’s Congress (NPC) responsible for of the National People’s Congress (NPC) responsible for developing, reviewing and enacting environmental lawsdeveloping, reviewing and enacting environmental laws

National level Ministry of Environmental ProtectionNational level Ministry of Environmental Protection Provincial Environmental Protection Bureaus (EPBs)Provincial Environmental Protection Bureaus (EPBs)

Part of provincial administrationPart of provincial administration National govt - limited direct influence–guidance on National govt - limited direct influence–guidance on

implementation of policies/regsimplementation of policies/regs Prefecture/municipal EPB – dual reportingPrefecture/municipal EPB – dual reporting

Reports to local Mayor’s officeReports to local Mayor’s office Reports to provincial EPBReports to provincial EPB

County/district EPB – dual reportingCounty/district EPB – dual reporting Reports to local Office of County MagistrateReports to local Office of County Magistrate Reports to prefecture/municipal EPBReports to prefecture/municipal EPB

Central Government

Province and Autonomous Regions

Prefecture – level Municipalities

Centrally Administered Municipalities

Districts Counties County-level Cities

Districts Counties

Townships

Villages

Townships

Villages

Townships

Villages

3 types

Source:Ma and Ortolano,2000

3 at samelevel

Effects of this Effects of this distributiondistribution

The organizational structure of environmental administration The organizational structure of environmental administration at the local level is very susceptible to interference by local at the local level is very susceptible to interference by local leaders due to the “horizontal-vertical” problemleaders due to the “horizontal-vertical” problem (tiao-tiao/kuai-kuai(tiao-tiao/kuai-kuai). ).

This stems from the situation where lower-level EPBs report This stems from the situation where lower-level EPBs report to higher level EPBs (and ultimately to MEP), but the funding to higher level EPBs (and ultimately to MEP), but the funding and supervisory functions are provided by the provincial or and supervisory functions are provided by the provincial or lower level administration of the local governments. lower level administration of the local governments.

Local governments often differ from national on the balance Local governments often differ from national on the balance between environment and development, esp. in cases where between environment and development, esp. in cases where the local government may be the whole or part-owner of a the local government may be the whole or part-owner of a

polluting enterprisepolluting enterprise

Public Disclosure – Public Disclosure – Internal and ExternalInternal and External

Weekly and daily reports on ambient air quality:Weekly and daily reports on ambient air quality: China Environmental News release reports for China Environmental News release reports for

46 cities every Saturday46 cities every Saturday Also publishes Key air quality indices on the Also publishes Key air quality indices on the

InternetInternet

May 2002 saw a million text messages protesting May 2002 saw a million text messages protesting a chemical plant in Xiamen City forces the city a chemical plant in Xiamen City forces the city government to stop construction of greater than government to stop construction of greater than $1 billion in investment$1 billion in investment

51,000 pollution-related protests in 2005.

Critiques and CultureCritiques and Culture

  ambiguity in legal requirements and lack of clearly ambiguity in legal requirements and lack of clearly defined rights and responsibilities of different defined rights and responsibilities of different parties; parties;

non-transparent enforcement system based on non-transparent enforcement system based on negotiations and bargaining outside the court negotiations and bargaining outside the court system; system;

limited involvement of courts in addressing limited involvement of courts in addressing conflicts and penalising non-complianceconflicts and penalising non-compliance

greater role for civil society in environmental greater role for civil society in environmental decision-makingdecision-making

Why Three Gorges Dam?Why Three Gorges Dam?

Flood control (unofficial Flood control (unofficial tallies claim > 3 million killed tallies claim > 3 million killed in floods)in floods)

Generate 18,200 MW (equal Generate 18,200 MW (equal to 50 million tons of coal)to 50 million tons of coal)

Ease navigation on otherwise Ease navigation on otherwise treacherous upstream waterstreacherous upstream waters

Source: Stone, Richard (2008). Science. Vol. 21-5889, p 628-632

Why Not Three Gorges?Why Not Three Gorges?

Species extinction (river dolphin, Species extinction (river dolphin, baijinbaijin and Chinese and Chinese paddlefish)paddlefish)

Fragmented habitats in a biodiversity hotspotFragmented habitats in a biodiversity hotspot

Water impoundment heightens risk of landslides in Water impoundment heightens risk of landslides in risk-prone countryrisk-prone country

Strain on seismic faultsStrain on seismic faults

1.3 million people uprooted, villages submerged, 1.3 million people uprooted, villages submerged, millions more could be affected millions more could be affected

Silt built up behind the dam that leads to decreased Silt built up behind the dam that leads to decreased efficiency of electricity production and contributing to efficiency of electricity production and contributing to saltwater intrusion downstreamsaltwater intrusion downstream

Source: Stone, Richard (2008). Science. Vol. 21-5889, p 628-632

Second to Last Words – Second to Last Words – Elizabeth EconomyElizabeth Economy

Still too much emphasis on GDP growth in job Still too much emphasis on GDP growth in job promotion so national government mandates promotion so national government mandates to decrease pollution remain secondary. Nto decrease pollution remain secondary. Need eed strong central leadership and revised system of strong central leadership and revised system of incentives.incentives.

The need for reform:The need for reform: ““Effective environmental governance Effective environmental governance

requires transparency, accountability, and requires transparency, accountability, and an independent legal system. A larger an independent legal system. A larger political reform is required to make all the political reform is required to make all the changes necessary. “changes necessary. “

Last WordsLast Words The race between environment and economy The race between environment and economy

is complicated by current trends:is complicated by current trends:

Projected energy increasesProjected energy increases Automobile purchases and associated land use Automobile purchases and associated land use

changes such as parkingchanges such as parking Decreases in household size and increases in Decreases in household size and increases in

wealth associated with consumption. wealth associated with consumption. The long timeframes involved in cleansing water The long timeframes involved in cleansing water

bodies and improving soil.bodies and improving soil.

Other deep effects of China’s environmental Other deep effects of China’s environmental condition: threats to public health, social condition: threats to public health, social stability, and China’s reputation in the world. stability, and China’s reputation in the world.