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CHER 2011University of Iceland Reykjavík
Iceland June 24th-26th
Is there an invariance in educational expansion?Jón Torfi Jónasson
[email protected] http://www.hi.is/~jtj/
School of Education, University of Iceland
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 2
Schofer, E., & Meyer, J. W. (2005). The Worldwide Expansion of Higher Education in the Twentieth Century. American Sociological Review 70, 898-920.
y = Ae0,0415x
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Based on Fig. 1 in Schofer and Meyer 2005The growth of the world tertiary student population relative to
population
The preamble
• Growth of education• Credentialism• The question of robustness, invariance
• The dependent variables– Registration at a certain level of education– Degrees awarded– Students entering the education– Controlling for population changes; cohort corrections
• The independent variables– Cultures– Gender– Age– Social groups
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 3
The story of the analysis
• The growth of education in Iceland, both university entrance examination and university enrolment
• Comparison with the other Nordic countries for upper secondary educationJón Torfi Jónasson. (2003). Does the state expand schooling? A a study based on five Nordic countries. Comparative Education Review, 47(2), 160-183.
• Green, Thomas F., David P. Ericson, and Robert Seidman. Predicting the behavior of the Educational System: Syracuse University Press, 1980, showed that growth of high school education in the US is predicable; can be shown to be essentially exponential (JTJ).
• An example of the Icelandic situation
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 4
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1980
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1990
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1995
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2000
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2010
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010
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All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts
Exponential trend. All Icelandic university students in Iceland and abroad as % of average of 20-24 yr cohorts based on the years 1911-1970
Source: Statistics Iceland
But what about “very different” systems?
• Consider the HE systems in the US and Japan as examples.
• First the US then Japan. • The method.
1. Consider the enrolment in HE in the growth period after the second war, which is often considered to show growth attached to optimism and belief in education. Many writers refer to the explosion in educational attendance during this period.2. Consider what would be predicted on the basis of prior developments i.e. for the first part of the 20th century using the exponential fit.3. Consider then what would be predicted for the rest of the 20th century.
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 12
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. The explosive growth rates after World War II in perspective
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
USA 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
USA 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Expon. (Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939)
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
USA 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
USA 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
USA 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
USA 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Males and females corrected for cohort 1971-2008
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-2008
USA 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
USA 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004
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Growth rates in Japanese higher education 1900-2004. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004
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Growth rates in Japanese higher education 1900-2004. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004
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Growth rates in Japanese higher education 1900-2004. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004
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Growth rates in Japanese higher education 1900-2004. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-1939
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Males and females corrected for cohort 1940-1970
Males and females corrected for cohort 1971-2004
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004
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Growth rates in Japanese higher education 1900-2004. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
Males and females corrected for cohort 1900-2004
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females exponential prediction
Japan 1900-1939 Males and females. S-logistic Limit 700
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008
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Growth rates in US higher education 1900-2008. Actual growth compared to the 1900-1939 exponential and logistic predictions
USA Males corrected for cohort 1900-2008
USA Females corrected for cohort 1900-2008
Gender, degrees and age, first some data from Iceland
• The period 1997-2009; ISCED 5, graduations from university• Based on data from Statistics Iceland
• First age and gender
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Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 25
y = 4,6386e0,0329x
y = 3,3793e0,0112x
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Iceland: Graduation rates of diffeerent age groups, corrected for cohort size
Females 25-29 years
Females 22-24 years
Males 25-29 years
Females 30-34 years
Males 22-24 years
Females 35-39 years
Males 30-34 years
Males 35-39 years
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00,010,020,030,040,050,060,070,080,09
0,10,110,120,130,140,15
22-24 years 25-29 years 30-34 years 35-39 years
Ave
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exp
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tsGraduation trends: the average exponent for different
age groups, corrected for cohort size, 1997-2009
Males
Females
The Swedish case; Gender, degrees and age:
• Three graphs
– 1. The basics: The fit of the exponent, an example for 25 year old males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses
– 2. The fit of the exponent, for ages between 24 and 39 males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses
– 3. The same as previous but now with the fit of the exponents for males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses and 4-4,5 degree courses
Based on data graciously provided by Statistics Sweden in May and June 2011.
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Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 28
y = A2e0,0283x
y = A1e0,0518x
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The proportion of the 25 year old cohort graduating with a 3-3,5 year degree during 1978-2010, shown separately for males and females
3 - 3,5 år män 25 år
3 - 3,5 år kvinnor 25 år
Expon. (3 - 3,5 år män 25 år)
Expon. (3 - 3,5 år kvinnor 25 år)
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 29
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Expo
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Age at graduation
Sweden: Growth exponents for graduation at different ages corrected for cohort size for the period 1978-2010
3 - 3,5 years Females
3 - 3,5 years Males
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 30
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Sweden: Growth exponents for graduation at different ages corrected for cohort size for the period 1978-2010
4 - 4,5 years Females
4 - 4,5 years Males
3 - 3,5 years Females
3 - 3,5 years Males
Different social groups
• Consider the three groups in the US, the hispanics, the blacks and the white.
– Note the growth rate for each– Note the gender differences– Note the similarities between the groups, in terms of
• Gender growth rates• and the differences between the gender
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 31
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 32
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Percentage of 25- to 29-year-olds who completed a bachelor’s degree or higher, by race/ethnicity and sex: 1971–2009
White FemaleWhite MaleBlack FemaleBlack MaleHispanic FemaleHispanic Male
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 33
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Percentage of 25- to 29-year-olds who completed a bachelor’s degree or higher, by race/ethnicity and sex: 1971–2009
White FemaleWhite MaleBlack FemaleBlack MaleHispanic FemaleHispanic Male
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 34
Completions. 25-29 year olds. Growth rates US 1971-2009(0,02 indicates approx 2% growth) White
male female Ratio female/male
Completed some college 0,009 0,021 2,3Completed bachelor degree or higher 0,007 0,023 3,3
Blackmale female Ratio
female/maleCompleted some college 0,020 0,026 1,3Completed bachelor degree or higher 0,017 0,023 1,3
Hispanicmale female Ratio
female/maleCompleted some college 0,008 0,027 3,6Completed bachelor degree or higher 0,005 0,029 5,8
Conclusions
We find • similar, robustness• similar long-term trends• similar gender similarites• similar gender differences
• across cultures• social groups• age groups
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 35
Conclusions
In order to understand the mechanisms of growth• we should look at the gender effects• but especially the age effects• and the effects and trends within different degrees
• e.g. low growth rates for certain ages for males may only tell a very small part of the story
• we suggest that essentially the same patterns are pretty universal and thus there is some important invariance over cultures and social groups
• we can expect massive growth over the next decades very much as hitherto
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 36
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
The growth of the world tertiary student population relative to total population in the 20th century: number of
students per million inhabitants
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Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland
The predicted growth of the world tertiary student population relative to total population: number of students
per million inhabitants
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Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 39
World population 20096.790 million
Growth of 4% 5%HE students 2000 100 100 million
2010 150 163 million2020 220 265 million2030 324 432 million2040 480 704 million2050 710 1146 million
Thank you
Kærar þakkir
Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 40