State of Consumer VR & ARand

Predictions for 2018 & 2028

Charlie FinkContributor, Forbes.com

Contributing Editor, VR Voice

@charliefink

Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017

About Me

• Contributor, Forbes; Editor, VR Voice• Entrepreneur & Producer • President, AG Interactive 00-04• SVP, America Online 95-99• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95• VP, Disney 85-92

• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing

• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster

• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once

• The killer app is other people

Things I Know Are True

• Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft VR• Apple - iGlass• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store for Gear• Google – Daydream, Magic Leap• Samsung – GearVR• Sony Playstation VR – Huge Installed Base

It’s All About The Guys At The Top of Pyramid

Wild Cards• Magic Leap

• Disruptive tech

• Apple AR

• Wearable (Probably)

• Microsoft Hololens

• Windows VR

• OEM

• The dark horse(s)

• Meta, ODG, Kopin, Epson Movio, Lenovo, Qualcomm

Early Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps

• Personal Computer

• Online Services (email)

• Shopping

• Social Media

• Smart Phones

• Messaging

• Photography

• Maps

• Music/Media

How People Are Exposed to VR• Mobile

• Cardboard

• GearVR

• Work

• VRcades

• Room Scale

• Free Roam

• Movies/Pop Culture

• The Matrix

• Ready Player One

Enterprise Goes First

• Military

• Design & Construction

• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts

• Medical• Monitor Consolidation

• Heads Up Display

• Tele surgery

• Sales & Marketing

VR/AR Consumer Products

• 360 Video• Pro

• Consumer

• VR • Mobile

• Fully Immersive

• AR/MR• 3D Mobile Apps

• Wearable

360 Video – The Tip of the Spear

• Pro• News

• Entertainment

• Consumer• Travel

• Sports

AR

• Mobile (3D enhanced screens)• Pokemon Go

• Filters (Snapchat, FB, Lumyer)

• Snapdragon/Tango

• Wearable Computing • Microsoft Hololens

• ODG (wearable android phone)

• Apple i-Glass (?)

Home VR Systems

• Samsung GearVR – 5 Million

• Google Daydream -

• HTC Vive (Room Scale) – 500,000

• Oculus Rift – 250,000

• Playstation VR – 400,000

Path to Success for Home VR

• Awareness• Most people don’t know about VR

• Cost, Ease of Use• Plug and Play Products• Prices still high

• Compelling Non-Game content• Social/Telepresence

• Improvements in Optics, Ergonomics• Outward facing cameras enable MR

• Affordable haptics (touch)

Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game• Address the Exposure Problem

• Vrcades, Franchise Titles

• Nurture Developers and Relationships• Viveport

• Help Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments• Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports,

Entertainment, Games, etc.

• Improve Content Quality & Distribution• The Netflix of VR

Location Based Entertainment (LBE)

• New Vrcades• IMAX VR

• Viveport

• Tick Tock Unlock

• Free Roam VR• The Void

• Zero Latency

• Dreamscape

• VR LBEs in the 90s• The mundane reality of retail

Predictions for June, 2018

• Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point

• 360 will become more commonplace

• Snapdragon will start to have an impact on AR and mobile VR

• Apple Ships iGlass version 1.0 for iPhone 10

• VR Comes to a Mall Near You

• More & much improved content for home VR systems

• Inter-operability and standards developed

• Magic Leap Comes Out, Ships Developer Version in 2018

Predictions for June, 2028

• Wearable computing commonplace

• All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready

• The Killer App will be telepresence (social)

• Second most popular VR app: Westword (casual game)

• Automated Trucks, Cars, commonplace

• AI, IoT, Automation will cause mass unemployment

• Medicare for all will pass the Congress

• We will need a much, much bigger room

THANK YOU!@charliefink

Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017