chapter five the open economy macro by ron cronovichabduls/econ5213/pdf/ch05.pdf · investment...
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macroeconomicsfifth edition
N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovichm
acro
© 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
CHAPTER FIVE
The Open Economy
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 1
Chapter objectivesChapter objectivesaccounting identities for the open economy
small open economy modelwhat makes it “small”how the trade balance and exchange rate are determinedhow policies affect trade balance & exchange rate
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 2
Imports and Exports Imports and Exports as a percentage of output: 2000as a percentage of output: 2000
Percentageof GDP
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0Canada France Germany Italy Japan U.K. U.S.
Imports Exports
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 3
In an open economy,In an open economy,spending need not equal output
saving need not equal investment
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 4
PreliminariesPreliminaries
superscripts:d = spending on
domestic goodsf = spending on
foreign goods
d fC C C= +d fI I I= +d fG G G= +
EX = exports = foreign spending on domestic goods
IM = imports = C f + I f + G f
= spending on foreign goods
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 5
PreliminariesPreliminaries, cont., cont.
NX = net exports (a.k.a. the “trade balance”)= EX – IM
If NX > 0, country has a trade surplusequal to NX
If NX < 0,country has a trade deficitequal to –NX
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 6
GDP = expenditure on GDP = expenditure on domestically produced g & sdomestically produced g & s
d d dY C I G EX= + + +
( ) ( ) ( )f f fC C I I G G EX= − + − + − +
( )f f fC I G EX C I G= + + + − + +
C I G EX IM= + + + −
C I G NX= + + +
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 7
The national income identity The national income identity in an open economyin an open economy
YY = = CC + + II + + GG + + NXNX
or, NX = Y – (C + I + G )
domestic spending
output
net exports
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 8
International capital flowsInternational capital flowsNet capital outflows
= S – I= net outflow of “loanable funds”= net purchases of foreign assets
the country’s purchases of foreign assets minus foreign purchases of domestic assets
When S > I, country is a net lender
When S < I, country is a net borrower
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 9
Another important identityAnother important identity
NX = Y – (C + I + G )
implies
NX = (Y – C – G ) – I
= S – I
trade balance = net capital outflows
NXNX = = YY –– ((CC + + II + + GG ))
impliesimplies
NXNX = (= (YY –– CC –– GG ) ) –– II
= = SS –– II
trade balancetrade balance = = net capital outflowsnet capital outflows
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 10
Saving and Investment Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economyin a Small Open Economy
An open-economy version of the loanablefunds model from chapter 3.
Includes many of the same elements:
production function: ( , )Y Y F K L= =
consumption function: ( )C C Y T= −
investment function: ( )I I r=
exogenous policy variables: ,G G T T= =
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 11
National Saving: National Saving: The Supply of The Supply of Loanable Loanable FundsFunds
r
S, I
As in Chapter 3,national saving does not depend on the
interest rate
( )S Y C Y T G= − − −
S
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 12
Assumptions re: capital flowsAssumptions re: capital flowsa. domestic & foreign bonds are perfect substitutes
(same risk, maturity, etc.)
b. perfect capital mobility:no restrictions on international trade in assets
c. economy is small:cannot affect the world interest rate, denoted r*
a & b imply r = r*
c implies r* is exogenous
aa & & bb imply imply rr = = r*r*
cc implies implies r*r* is exogenousis exogenous
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 13
Investment: Investment: The Demand forThe Demand for LoanableLoanable FundsFunds
Investment is still a downward-sloping function
of the interest rate,
r*
but the exogenous world interest rate…
…determines thecountry’s level of
investment.
I (r* )
r
S, I
I (r )
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 14
If the economy were closed…If the economy were closed…r
S, I
I (r )
S
rc
( )cI rS=
…the interest rate would adjust to equate investment and saving:
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 15
But in a small open economy…But in a small open economy…r
S, I
I (r )
S
rc
r*
I 1
NX
the exogenous world interest rate determines investment…
…and the difference between saving and investment determines net capital outflows and net exports
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 16
Three experimentsThree experiments
1. Fiscal policy at home
2. Fiscal policy abroad
3. An increase in investment demand
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 17
1. 1. Fiscal policy at homeFiscal policy at homer
S, I
I (r )
1S
I 1
1*r
NX1
2S
NX2
An increase in Gor decrease in Treduces saving.
Results: 0I∆ =
0NX S∆ = ∆ <
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 18
NX and the Government Budget DeficitNX and the Government Budget Deficit
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percentof GDP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 Percentof GDP
Budget deficit(right scale)
Net exports(left scale)
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 19
2. 2. Fiscal policy abroadFiscal policy abroadr
S, I
I (r )
1S
1*r
NX1
NX2
2*r
1( )*I r2( )*I r
Expansionary fiscal policy abroad raises the world interest rate.
0I∆ <Results:
0NX I∆ = −∆ >
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 20
3. 3. An increase in investment demandAn increase in investment demandr
S, I
I (r )1
NX1
*r
I 1
S
EXERCISE:Use the model to determine the impact of an increase in investment demand on NX, S, I, and net capital outflow.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 21
3. 3. An increase in investment demandAn increase in investment demandr
S, I
I (r )1
NX2
NX1
*r
I 1 I 2
S
I (r )2
ANSWERS:∆I > 0,∆S = 0,net capital outflows and net exports fall by the amount ∆I
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 22
The nominal exchange rateThe nominal exchange rate
e = nominal exchange rate, the relative price of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency
(e.g. Yen per Dollar)
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 23
Exchange rates as of June 6, 2002Exchange rates as of June 6, 2002
9.7 Pesos/$Mexico
1,444,063.1 Liras/$Turkey
0.68 Pounds/$U.K.
31.4 Rubles/$Russia
1.06 Euro/$Euro
exchange ratecountry
9.8 Rand/$South Africa
124.3 Yen/$Japan
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 24
The real exchange rateThe real exchange rate
= real exchange rate, the relative price of domestic goods in terms of foreign goods
(e.g. Japanese Big Macs per U.S. Big Mac)
the lowercase Greek letter
epsilon
ε
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 25
Understanding the units of Understanding the units of εε
*e PP×
=ε
(Yen per $) ($ per unit U.S. goods)Yen per unit Japanese goods
×=
Yen per unit U.S. goodsYen per unit Japanese goods
=
Units of Japanese goods
per unit of U.S. goods=
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 26
one good: Big Macprice in Japan:
P* = 200 Yenprice in USA:
P = $2.50nominal exchange rate
e = 120 Yen/$ To buy a U.S. Big Mac, someone from Japan would have to pay an amount that could buy 1.5 Japanese Big Macs.
To buy a U.S. Big Mac, someone from Japan would have to pay an amount that could buy 1.5 Japanese Big Macs.
~ ~ McZample McZample ~~
*120 $2.50
200 Y.
en1 5
e PP×
=
×= =
ε
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 27
εε in the real world & our modelin the real world & our model
In the real world:We can think of ε as the relative price of a basket of domestic goods in terms of a basket of foreign goods
In our macro model:There’s just one good, “output.”So ε is the relative price of one country’s output in terms of the other country’s output
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 28
How How NXNX depends on depends on εε
↑ε ⇒ U.S. goods become more expensive relative to foreign goods
⇒ ↓EX, ↑IM
⇒ ↓NX
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 29
U.S. Net Exports and the U.S. Net Exports and the Real Exchange Rate, Real Exchange Rate, 19751975--20022002
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Perc
ent o
f GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998
:2 =
100
Net exports (left scale) Real exchange rate (right scale)
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 30
The net exports functionThe net exports function
The net exports function reflects this inverse relationship between NX and ε:
NX = NX (ε )
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 31
The The NXNX curve for the U.S.curve for the U.S.
0 NX
ε
NX(ε)
ε1
When ε is relatively low, U.S. goods are relatively inexpensive
NX(ε1)
so U.S. net exports will be high
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 32
The The NXNX curve for the U.S.curve for the U.S.
0 NX
ε
NX(ε)
ε2
At high enough values of ε, U.S. goods become so expensive that
NX(ε2)
we export less than we import
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 33
How How ε is determinedis determined
The accounting identity says NX = S − I
We saw earlier how S − I is determined:• S depends on domestic factors (output,
fiscal policy variables, etc)• I is determined by the world interest
rate r*
So, ε must adjust to ensure
( ) ( )*NX ε S I r= −
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 34
How How ε is determinedis determined
Neither S nor Idepend on ε, so the net capital outflow curve is vertical.
ε
NX
NX(ε )
1 ( *)S I r−
ε 1
NX 1
ε adjusts to equate NXwith net capital outflow, S − I.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 35
Interpretation: supply and demand in Interpretation: supply and demand in the foreign exchange marketthe foreign exchange market
demand:Foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports.
ε
NX
NX(ε )
1 ( *)S I r−
ε 1
NX 1
supply: The net capital outflow (S − I ) is the supply of dollars to be invested abroad.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 36
Four experimentsFour experiments
1. Fiscal policy at home
2. Fiscal policy abroad
3. An increase in investment demand
4. Trade policy to restrict imports
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 37
1. 1. Fiscal policy at homeFiscal policy at homeA fiscal expansion reduces national saving, net capital outflows, and the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market…
ε
NX
NX(ε )
1 ( *)S I r−
ε1
NX1NX2
ε2
2 ( *)S I r−
…causing the real exchange rate to rise and NX to fall.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 38
2. 2. Fiscal policy abroadFiscal policy abroad
An increase in r*reduces investment, increasing net capital outflows and the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market…
ε
NX
NX(ε )
1 1( *)S I r−
NX1
ε1
21 ( )*S I r−
ε2
NX2
…causing the real exchange rate to fall and NX to rise.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 39
3. 3. An increase in investment demandAn increase in investment demand
An increase in investment reduces net capital outflows and the supply of dollars in the foreign exchange market…
ε
NX
NX(ε )
ε1
1 1S I−
NX1NX2
ε2
21S I−
…causing the real exchange rate to rise and NX to fall.
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4. 4. Trade policy to restrict importsTrade policy to restrict imports
At any given value of ε, an import quota
⇒ ↓ IM ⇒ ↑ NX⇒ demand for
dollars shifts right
ε
NX
NX (ε )1
S I−
NX1
ε1
NX (ε )2
ε2
Trade policy doesn’t affect S or I , so capital flows and the supply of dollars remains fixed.
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4. 4. Trade policy to restrict importsTrade policy to restrict imports
Results:∆ε > 0
(demand increase)
∆NX = 0(supply fixed)
∆IM < 0 (policy)
∆EX < 0(rise in ε )
ε
NX
NX (ε )1
S I−
NX
ε1
NX (ε )2
ε2
1
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 42
The Determinants of the The Determinants of the Nominal Exchange RateNominal Exchange Rate
Start with the expression for the real exchange rate:
*
e PεP×
=
Solve it for the nominal exchange rate:*Pe ε
P= ×
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The Determinants of the The Determinants of the Nominal Exchange RateNominal Exchange Rate
( * , )ML r Y
P= +π
( ) ( )*NX ε S I r= −
So e depends on the real exchange rate and the price levels at home and abroad…
…and we know how each of them is determined:
*Pe εP
= ×
** *
* ( * *, )ML r Y
P= + π
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The Determinants of the The Determinants of the Nominal Exchange RateNominal Exchange Rate
We can rewrite this equation in terms of growth rates (see “arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes,” Chap 2 ):
*Pe εP
= ×
*
*
e ε P Pe ε P P
= + −∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ *ε
επ π= + −
∆
For a given value of ε, the growth rate of e equals the difference between foreign and domestic inflation rates.
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Inflation and nominal exchange ratesInflation and nominal exchange ratesPercentage changein nominalexchange rate
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
-1 -2 -3 -4
Inflation differential
Depreciationrelative to U.S. dollar
Appreciationrelative to U.S. dollar
- 1-2-3 10 2 3 4 5 6 87
France
Canada
SwedenAustralia
UK
IrelandSpain
South Africa
Italy
New Zealand
NetherlandsGermany
Japan
Belgium
Switzerland
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 46
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
def1: a doctrine that states that goods must sell at the same (currency-adjusted) price in all countries.
def2: the nominal exchange rate adjusts to equalize the cost of a basket of goods across countries.
Reasoning: arbitrage, the law of one price
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 47
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
PPP: e ×P = P*
Cost of a basket of domestic goods, in foreign currency.
Cost of a basket of domestic goods, in domestic currency.
Cost of a basket of foreign goods, in foreign currency.
Solve for e : e = P*/P
PPP implies that the nominal exchange rate between two countries equals the ratio of the countries’ price levels.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 48
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
If e = P*/P, then
*
* * 1P P Pε eP P P
= × = × =
and the NX curve is horizontal:
ε
NX
NXε = 1
S − I Under PPP, changes in (S − I ) have no impact on ε or e.
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Does PPP hold in the real world?Does PPP hold in the real world?
No, for two reasons:1. International arbitrage not possible.
nontraded goodstransportation costs
2. Goods of different countries not perfect substitutes.
Nonetheless, PPP is a useful theory:• It’s simple & intuitive• In the real world, nominal exchange rates
have a tendency toward their PPP values over the long run.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 50
no change
no change
↓
↑
↓
↑
↑
↓
no change
no change
↓
↑
↑
↓
↓
↑
↓
↑
129.4
-2.0
19.4
6.3
17.4
3.9
115.1
-0.3
19.9
1.1
19.6
2.2
closed economy
small open economy
actual change
ε
NX
I
r
S
G – T
1980s1970s
CASE STUDYCASE STUDYThe Reagan Deficits revisitedThe Reagan Deficits revisited
Data: decade averages; all except r and ε are expressed as a percent of GDP; ε is a trade-weighted index.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 51
The U.S. as a large open economyThe U.S. as a large open economySo far, we’ve learned long-run models for two extreme cases:
closed economy (chapter 3)small open economy (chapter 5)
A large open economy---like the U.S.---is in between these two extremes.
The analysis of policies or other exogenous changes in a large open economy is a mixture of the results for the closed & small open economy cases.
For example…
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A fiscal expansion in three modelsA fiscal expansion in three modelsA fiscal expansion causes national saving to fall.The effects of this depend on the degree of openness:
NX
I
r
large open economy
small open economy
closed economy
falls, but not as much as in small open economy fallsno
change
falls, but not as much as in closed economy
nochangefalls
rises, but not as much as in closed economy
nochange
rises
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 53
Chapter summaryChapter summary1. Net exports--the difference between
exports and importsa country’s output (Y )
and its spending (C + I + G)
2. Net capital outflow equalspurchases of foreign assets minus foreign purchases of the country’s assetsthe difference between saving and investment
3. National income accounts identities:Y = C + I + G + NXtrade balance NX = S − I net capital outflow
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Chapter summaryChapter summary4. Impact of policies on NX :
NX increases if policy causes S to rise or I to fallNX does not change if policy affects neither S nor I. Example: trade policy
5. Exchange ratesnominal: the price of a country’s currency in terms of another country’s currencyreal: the price of a country’s goods in terms of another country’s goods.The real exchange rate equals the nominal rate times the ratio of prices of the two countries.
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Chapter summaryChapter summary6. How the real exchange rate is determined
NX depends negatively on the real exchange rate, other things equalThe real exchange rate adjusts to equate NX with net capital outflow
7. How the nominal exchange rate is determinede equals the real exchange rate times the country’s price level relative to the foreign price level. For a given value of the real exchange rate, the percentage change in the nominal exchange rate equals the difference between the foreign & domestic inflation rates.
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CHAPTER 5CHAPTER 5 The Open EconomyThe Open Economy slide 56