chapter fifteen focus on the future. policing america, 6 th edition kenneth peak © 2009 pearson...

Chapter Fifteen

Focus on the Future

Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak

© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.

All Rights Reserved.2

Why Take the Future Seriously?

Because of the reactive nature of policing, police officials tended not to be concerned about the future

Principles of futures research that are utilized include:

1. The unity or interconnectedness of reality

2. The crucial importance of time3. The significance of ideas





Futurists subscribe to six time frames1. Immediate present (two years)2. Short term (two to five years)3. Mid-level (five to ten years)4. Long range (ten to twenty years)5. Extended (twenty to fifty years)6. Distant (fifty years and beyond)





Futures Working Group Formed in 2002 Partnership between the FBI and

Police Futurists International Development of forecasts and

strategies to maximize effectiveness of all law enforcement entities as they strive to maintain peace and security




Predicting the Future: Environmental

Scanning and Scenario Writing

Environmental scanning An effort to put a social problem

under a microscope, with an eye toward the future

Allows us the capability to identify, track, and assess the prospects of emerging changes in the environment





Scanning and Scenario Writing Scanning

Crime and justice researchers can examine the factors that seem likely to “drive” the environment

Three categories of drivers1. Social and economic conditions2. Shifts in the amounts and type of

crimes3. Possible developments in the criminal

justice system itself





Scanning and Scenario Writing

Scenario writing The application of drivers to three

primary situations or elements

1. Tolerance for crime2. Amount of crime3. Capacity of the criminal justice

system to deal with crime





Scanning and Scenario Writing An important consideration is whether

each will occur in high or low degrees Environmental scanning and scenario

writing provide a method of systematically surveying the prospects for change in the environment and exploring the value of potential policies




Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime

Alvin Toffler Predicts that we are moving into

some of the most turbulent years in our history

Will put enormous strains on our police system

Believes that almost all major systems, from transportation to postal and educational systems, are in simultaneous crisis





Simple-minded to blame crime solely on poverty

Collapse of the traditional nuclear family, and its replacement by two-career couples, childless couples, and much-married couple, has had a massive impact on policing





Victimization and ViolenceCrime rate fell from 1992 through

20041. State legislators imposed tougher

sentences on violent criminals2. Local officials implemented

aggressive and intelligent methods of COPPS





New violence that has emerged over the past ten to fifteen years

In the past violence was a means to an end

Today an entire culture sees the use of violence an end in itself

Fueled by drugs Present challenges for police leaders





Reduction in crime had minimal effect on reducing public’s fear of crime

This will be a major challenge in the future

Officers should be trained to assess causes and levels of individual, neighborhood, and community fear





Drugs, alcohol, and guns 40% of violent crimes involve

alcohol 50% of convicted jail inmates were

under the influence of drugs or alcohol at the time of the offense

75% of convicted jail inmates were alcohol- or drug- involved at the time of their current offense





Police leaders will have to think outside the box in the future in response to the changing drug market

Guns might increase the risk of victimization and a general fear of crime

Estimates of roughly 83 to 96 guns per 100 people in the US





Cybercrime Data manipulation, software

piracy, industrial espionage, bank card counterfeiting, and embezzlement

Cyberterrorism Require the development of new

investigative techniques





An aging America 12.4% of the total population is at least

sixty-five years old Elderly are less likely than younger

people to become victims of violence and less likely to be injured during a violent crime

Only about 1.2 violent crimes per 1,000 are committed against persons over 65





Elderly have a high fear of crime but are less likely to take protective measures than younger people

More likely to report a crime Can be victimized in nursing homes

and hospitals Relative isolation can lead to high

percentage of victimization in the home





Elderly are targeted more often for financial fraud than other people

Police must be more adept at preventing and investigating those types of crimes

Pose unique challenges for investigative personnel




High Technology: Coming Attractions

Augmented reality (AR) Uses wearable components to overlay

virtual information onto a real-world view

Still in early stages of development Being used today in sports and

military





Possible uses of AR1. real-time language translation2. Real-time intelligence about crimes

and criminals in the patrol area3. Facial, voiceprint, and other

biometric recognition data of known criminals

4. Accessibility of scalable 3-D maps





Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) Powered aerial vehicles that do not carry

human operators and are designed to carry nonlethal payloads

Focuses on military applications at present

Could provide real-time reconnaissance, surveillance, and target spotting





Nanotechnology Human hair is gigantic in the realm

of nanotechnology Allows for revolutionary new

products using new materials and substances not accessible with other technologies

Products could be lighter, stronger, and even interactive




Community-Oriented Policing

and Problem Solving

A central issue concerns community partnerships

Develop meaningful and lasting partnerships




Community-Oriented Policing

and Problem Solving

Several other issues1. Will police chief executives change the

culture of their agencies2. Implement the concept3. Decentralize their departments4. Invest in the necessary technology to

locate hot spots5. Develop the necessary mechanisms to

support COPPS




Role of Beat Officers Area of interest for the future of

policing concerns the attitudes and cognitive abilities of the recruits as they relate to the management styles they will confront

Only applicants who can think critically, plan, and evaluate will be hired




Role of Beat Officers Those entering policing in the future

probably will not have the military experience but will have higher levels of education and tend to be more independent

Exposed to more participative, supportive, and humanistic approaches

A major need for leadership will be the surrendering of power to lower organizational employees




Role of Beat Officers Other personnel issues Recruiting

Shifts toward older workers, fewer qualified entry-level workers, and more women, minorities, and immigrants in the population will require the police to devise new strategies for and to become more flexible in competing with the private sector




Role of Beat Officers With many young single mothers

heading households, the police must offer them attractive salaries, benefits, and workplace accommodations

Police will need to communicate with non-English speaking communities




Role of Beat OfficersOther predicted changes1. Ethics will be a part of everything

the police do2. Communications will be greatly

improved through internal intranets

3. Major cities will no longer require that the chief of police have prior policing experience




Role of Beat Officers4. Rigid paramilitary style will

become obsolete5. Current squad structure will give

way to more productive, creative teams of officers

6. Neighborhoods will more actively participate in the identification, location, and capture of criminals




In Sum: Organizations and Change

Political and economic elements in policing that have a strong bearing in change

According to Wilson, three types of change that police undergo

1. Unplanned near-term changes2. Planned near-term changes3. Fundamental long-term changes

chapter fifteen focus on the future. policing america, 6 th edition kenneth peak © 2009 pearson...

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