Chapter 6 - Population and Development

« Massive poverty and obscene inequality are such terrible scourges of our time – times in

which the world boasts breathtaking advances in science, technology, industry and wealth

accumulation – that they have to rank alongside slavery and apartheid as social evils »

Nelson Mandela - 2005

Demographic Transition

• Shift from high birth & death rates to low

• Developed countries have made the transition, developing countries must do as well if they want to come out of poverty

• How do we speed this up?1. Speed up economic development (developing

countries favoured this one at first, then changed)2. Concentrate on family planning (developed

countries originally favoured this one, US later was opposed to this (Regan & Bush))

World Regions in the Process of

Demographic Transition

CDR & CBR - # of live births or deaths per 1000/yr

ICPD – Cairo 1994 International Conference on Population &

Development

• 15 000 leaders/reps & 179 nations participated• Poverty & population growth were clearly linked• Responsibility of reducing fertility rates was

placed on the developing countries themselves• Broad agreement that

1. Women’s rights to health care, education and employment were foundational to decreasing population growth

2. Development must be linked to a reduction in poverty3. Existing poverty in developing countries was an qffront to

human dignity 4. Both poverty and development were a threat to the health

of the environment and only sustainable development woudl prevent a future of unprecedented biological and human impoverishment

The Demographic Window

Dependency ratio – ratio of nonworking population <15 & > 65 to working-age population

The dip in the dependency ratio provides a short window to decrease spending on school & healthcare for the elderly & generate economic growth « Demographic Dividend »

Fertility Rate and Income in Selected

Developing Countries

Why is there a population problem in developing

countries?

1. Security in one’s old age2. Infant & childhood mortality3. Helping hands4. Importance of education5. Poor status of women6. Lack of availability of

contraceptives

Prevalence of Contraception & Fertility Rates

The Poverty Cycle

Promoting Development – Good

News• Some countries have increased their GNP by 5X• Transition in status of many low-income to medium and

medium to high-income countries• Foreign investment in developing countries has

increased fourfold• People living on less than $1/day had decreased from

40% to 21%• Social progress has been made in developing countries• Literacy rates have increased• Access to clean drinking water has increased• Fertility rates of most developing countries have

decreased (although still far from replacement level)

Promoting Development –

Bad News• Still almost a fifth of the world’s

population lives on less than $1/day

• 1 billion live in slums• 800 million are malnourished

Millenium Development Goals

Set in 1990, with concrete targets for 2015

1. Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality & empower women4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, & other diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Forge a global partnership for development

The Evolution of Poverty in

the Developing

World

The Debt Crisis

• An economic, social and ecological disaster for many developing countries

• To keep up partial interest payments, poor countries:

1. Focus agriculture on growing cash crops for export

2. Adopt austerity measures – goverment expenditures are reduced to pay interest

3. Invite rapid exploitation of natural resources for quick cash

National Dept in Developing Countries

Official Development Assistance (ODA)

Social Modernization

1. Improving education2. Improving health3. Making family planning accessible4. Enhancing income through

employment opportunities5. Improving resource management

1. Improving Education

• Concentrating on basic literacy (reading, writing & simple calculations)

• Problem is exagerated in women (50-70%) in developing countries among poor women

• Educated population = Wealthy population

Comparing a 25-year History Between South

Korea & PakistanPatistan 1960 1985

Growth Rate 2.6 % 2.4 %

Income Similar to S. Korea 3 times lower than South Korea’s

School Enrolement 30 %

South Korea 1960 1985

Growth Rate 2.6 % 0.5 %

Income Similar to S. Korea 3 times higher than Pakistan’s

School Enrolement 30 %

2. Improving HealthBasics

• Good nutrition• Hygiene – boiling water to stop the

spread of water-borne diseases• Treating common ailments like

diarrhea• Maternal mortality = 1000/100 000

live births

Child Mortality in 2003

2. Improving Health Reproductive Health

• Prenatal care• Safe childbirth & postnatal care• Controception awareness & availability• Prevention & treatment of STDs• Abortion services & care afterwards• Prevention & treatment of infertility• Elimination of violence against women

– Coercive sex & rape– Sexual trafficing– Female circumcision & infibulation

2. Improving HealthAIDS

• 90% of HIV-positive patients live in developing countries

• Greater than 25% of adults in Zimbabwe, Botswana, & South Africa

• Life expectancy in Botswana has decreased from 61 to 34 at present

• Drugs are too expensive for most countries• Change in sexual practice is the most

effective at combating HIV• Uganda – 70% decline in HIV infection linked

to 60% decline in casual sex

Projected Population Structure of Botswana,

2020

AIDS in the World

3. Family Planning

• Enables couples to plan their own family size (to have children only if and when they want them) by:

1. Counseling regarding human reproduction, STDs and the benefits & risks of various contraceptive techniques

2. Counseling regarding pre and postnatal health of mother and child (nutrition, sanitation & hygiene)

3. Counseling regarding high-risk pregnancies4. Providing contraceptive materials or treatments

after people have been properly instructed about all alternatives

The Fate of World Pregnancies During

One Year• 18 million of the induced

abortions are unsafe• 68 000 women die each

year from these abortions• Bush reinstated Regan’s

« global gag rule » which prohibits US goverment aid to foreign family planning agencies if they provide abortions or counsel it

• Gag rule was rescinded during the Clintin administration and again on Jan 23rd 2009 by Obama

133 million

32 million

46 million

Live births 63%

Miscarriages and stillbirths 15%

Induced abortions

22%

4. Employment & Income

• First step is to convert barter economies to money economies

• Problem: poor people need money to start up a business and usually can’t get it

• Solution: Grameen Bank offers microlending which are short-term loans of on average $67 where groups of people agree to be responsible for the payback of each other’s loans

• More recent microlenders include organizations like « Freedom from Hunger » & the World Bank

Muhammad Yunus – Conceived & created the Grameen Bank (1976)

5. Resource Management

• Nepal – people are given the right to own trees, but not the land.

• There are presently 6000 user groups managing 450 000 hectars.

• These groups develop forestry management plans, set timber sale prices and manage the surplus income