chapter 5
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Chapter 5. Risk and Return. Learning Goals. Meaning and importance of risk. Returns and risk for a single asset. Returns and risk for a portfolio. Diversification & the role of correlation Beta as a risk measure. Risk Defined. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5Risk and Return
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Learning Goals
1. Meaning and importance of risk.
2. Returns and risk for a single asset.
3. Returns and risk for a portfolio.
4. Diversification & the role of correlation
5. Beta as a risk measure
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Risk Defined
• In the context of business and finance, risk exists whenever we are not certain what the outcome of a decision will be.
• Two notions of risk:
– the chance of suffering a financial loss
– the uncertainty or variability of returns
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Risk and Return Fundamentals
• Risk is important in financial decisions
because most people (investors,
managers, etc.) are risk averse.
• What does risk aversion mean?
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Returns
• Return is the total gain or loss on an investment., including change in price, even if the asset is not sold.
• Capital gains and losses matter, even if they are not realized.
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Measures of Risk
• Three indicators of risk are:
• The range.
• The standard deviation.
• The coefficient of variation (CV); it provides a measure of
relative risk (risk per unit of return).
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Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Standard Deviation (cont.)
Table 5.6 Historical Returns, Standard Deviations, and Coefficients of Variation for Selected Security Investments (1926–2006)
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Portfolio Return
• A portfolio is a combination of assets.
• The return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the individual assets:
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Risk of a Portfolio: Adding Assets to a Portfolio
0 # of Stocks
Systematic (non-diversifiable) Risk
Unsystematic (diversifiable) Risk
Portfolio Risk (SD)
σM
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Risk and Return
• The previous slide shows that a major part of a portfolio’s risk (the standard deviation of returns) can be eliminated simply by holding a lot of stocks.
• The risk you can’t get rid of by adding stocks (systematic) cannot be eliminated through diversification because that variability is caused by events that affect most stocks similarly.
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Portfolio Risk and Return
• If investors are risk averse, they will invest in portfolios rather than in single assets because a portion of the risk is eliminated by diversification.
• To maximize the risk reduction from diversification, combine securities whose returns have a low or negative correlation.
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• CAPM is a theory of the relationship between risk and return.
• If investors are risk averse, they must be compensated for bearing risk with higher expected returns. The question CAPM attempts to answer is, how much higher should the return on a risky asset be?
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
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The risk-free rate (RF) is usually estimated from the return on US T-bills
The risk premium is a function of both market conditions and the asset
itself.
Risk and Return: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) (cont.)
• The required return for all assets is composed of two parts: the risk-free rate and a risk premium.
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Risk and Return: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) (cont.)
• According to CAPM, the required return on a risky asset is: