ChapterChapter 55Human Resource PlanningHuman Resource Planning

The Delphi TechniqueThe Delphi Technique

Procedures to Procedures to obtain the most obtain the most reliable consensus reliable consensus of opinion of a of opinion of a group of expertsgroup of experts

The average # is The average # is used to forecastused to forecast

A person serves as

an intermediary

NOMINALGROUP

TECHNIQUE

Use of several expert opinionscoupled with a brainstorm togenerate decisions that arebetter than an individual

Human Resource PlanningHuman Resource PlanningHuman Resource PlanningHuman Resource Planning

More effective and efficient use of More effective and efficient use of people at work.people at work.

More satisfied and better developed More satisfied and better developed employees.employees.

More effective equal employment More effective equal employment opportunity planning.opportunity planning.

U.S. Births: 1935 - 1991U.S. Births: 1935 - 1991

0

500,0001,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,0003,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,0005,000,000

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

YEAR

BIRTHS

What Employees Want in JobWhat Employees Want in Job

EnjoymentEnjoyment Use skillsUse skills Personal developmentPersonal development Feeling what they do mattersFeeling what they do matters BenefitsBenefits RecognitionRecognition CollegialityCollegiality LocationLocation MoneyMoney

Freshman ObjectivesFreshman Objectives

Freshman ObjectivesFreshman Objectives

What Employees Want in JobWhat Employees Want in Job

EnjoymentEnjoyment Use skillsUse skills Personal developmentPersonal development Feeling what they do mattersFeeling what they do matters BenefitsBenefits RecognitionRecognition CollegialityCollegiality LocationLocation MoneyMoney

The Child Care EffectThe Child Care Effect

• The greater the responsibility The greater the responsibility employees—employees—men or womenmen or women—take for —take for care of children, the lower their care of children, the lower their earningsearnings

• Mothers, on average, still take much Mothers, on average, still take much more responsibility for child care more responsibility for child care than fathersthan fathers

The Bottom Line?The Bottom Line?

Gender equity off the job is still Gender equity off the job is still not a reality, even though there not a reality, even though there are more and more dual-earner are more and more dual-earner couples in the workforce, and couples in the workforce, and work hours for both men and work hours for both men and women are getting longer.women are getting longer.

WorkplaceWorkplace 2007 Issues2007 Issues

Women and minorities in the workforceWomen and minorities in the workforce Mothers in the workplaceMothers in the workplace Single parent heads of householdsSingle parent heads of households Day care needsDay care needs

WorkplaceWorkplace 2007 Issues2007 Issues

Elder careElder care Violence in workplaceViolence in workplace Chronic labor shortagesChronic labor shortages Under educated workforceUnder educated workforce Job migrationsJob migrations

67%

33%

49%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Fathers in Dual-Earner Couples

Fathers Who AreSole Wage

Earners 2006

1977

2006

1977

Married fathers living in dual-earner Married fathers living in dual-earner couples in 1977 and 2005couples in 1977 and 2005

2007NSCW

There is an increase in the number of There is an increase in the number of dual-earner couplesdual-earner couples

78%

22%

66%

34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Dual-EarnerCouples

Single EarnerCouples 2006

1977

2006

1977

2007NSCW

Work time has increasedWork time has increased

0 20 40 60 80 100

Combined WorkHours of Dual-

Earner Coupleswith Children

Combined WorkHours of All

Couples (Dual-and Single-

Earner)

7082

8191

2006

1977

20061977

And jobs have become more demanding and hecticAnd jobs have become more demanding and hectic

2007 NSCW

However, men are also more involved in the However, men are also more involved in the care of children, according to their wivescare of children, according to their wives

30%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Husband TakesGreater or EqualResponsibility for

the Care ofChildren

2006

1992

2007NSCW

Men spend more time caring for childrenMen spend more time caring for children

0

1

2

3

4

1977 2002

Women

Men

hours

3.3 hrs.3.5 ns

1.9 hrs. 2.7***

Statistical Significance: ** = p < .01; *** p < .001; ns = not significant.

2007NSCW

Men and women both provide Men and women both provide elder careelder care

• 35 percent of employees 35 percent of employees had significant elder care had significant elder care responsibilities in the past responsibilities in the past year year —— women and men women and men alikealike

So where where are we getting the time?So where where are we getting the time?

2007 NSCW

Dramatic decreases in “time for self”Dramatic decreases in “time for self”

0

1

2

3

4

1977 2002

Men

Women

hours2.1 hrs.

1.3 ***1.6 hrs.

0.9***

Statistical Significance: ** = p < .01; *** p < .001; ns = not significant.

2007 NSCW

23%

43%

18%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Able to ChangeStart and QuitTimes Daily

Able to Set Startand Quit Times

within RangePeriodically(Flextime)

20061992

20061992

2007NSCW

How have employers responded?How have employers responded?• There is greater access to flexibility

36%

25%

39%

30%

27%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Complete Controlor a Lot

Some Control

Very Little or NoControl 2006

1992

20061992

2006

1992

How have employers responded?How have employers responded?• Employees have more control over the Employees have more control over the

scheduling of work hours scheduling of work hours

2007 NSCW

Flexible work arrangements related Flexible work arrangements related to job satisfaction in 2005to job satisfaction in 2005

65%

49%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Availability ofFlexible WorkArrangements

Employees Reporting High Levels of Job Satisfaction

Low Flex

Mid Flex

High Flex

2006 NSCW

Flexible work arrangements related Flexible work arrangements related to commitment to employer in 2005to commitment to employer in 2005

39%

27%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Availability ofFlexible WorkArrangements

Employees Reporting High Levels of Loyalty and WillingnessTo Work Harder than Required to Help Their Employers Succeed

Low Flex

Mid Flex

High Flex

2007 NSCW

Flexible work arrangements related Flexible work arrangements related to retention in 2005to retention in 2005

73%

62%

54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Availability ofFlexible WorkArrangements

Employees Reporting High Likelihood of Retention for Next Year

Low Flex

Mid Flex

High Flex

2007 NSCW

Employees Exhibiting Significantly Better Mental Health than Other Respondents

35%

25%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Availability ofFlexible WorkArrangements

Low Flex

Mid Flex

High Flex

Flexible work arrangements related to Flexible work arrangements related to mental health in 2005mental health in 2005

2007 NSCW

To be an employer of choice…To be an employer of choice…

• Listen to employeesListen to employees

• Provide flexibility without jeopardyProvide flexibility without jeopardy

• Reduce low-value workReduce low-value work

• Increase supervisor supportIncrease supervisor support

• Improve the supportiveness of the Improve the supportiveness of the workplace cultureworkplace culture

Analyzing the Current HR SupplyAnalyzing the Current HR SupplyThe Skills InventoryThe Skills Inventory

Data summarizing the status of present Data summarizing the status of present skillsskills

Data summarizing the employee’s pastData summarizing the employee’s pastData that focuses on the futureData that focuses on the future

Vary greatly in sophisticationVary greatly in sophisticationMaintained through interviews and Maintained through interviews and

questionnairesquestionnairesMain components Main components

Succession Planning Succession Planning and Replacement Chartsand Replacement Charts

Tools to integrate summary data about individuals Tools to integrate summary data about individuals currently in the organization currently in the organization

Charts to pinpoint potential problem areas in terms Charts to pinpoint potential problem areas in terms of human resource planningof human resource planning

VP of MarketingVP of Finance

Training and Development Manager

VP of HRM

CEO

Compensation Manager

Succession PlanningSuccession PlanningSuccession PlanningSuccession Planning

Between 50 and 70 percent of senior-Between 50 and 70 percent of senior-level replacements come from within an level replacements come from within an organization.organization.

An effective succession plan has An effective succession plan has contingencies for unanticipated contingencies for unanticipated vacancies.vacancies.

Only Only 42% 42% have CEO succession plans.have CEO succession plans.

Internal Vs. External Internal Vs. External RecruitingRecruiting

Internal Internal AdvantagesAdvantagesEmployees Employees

know,know,Increased Increased

moralemoraleLower costsLower costs

Internal Internal DisadvantagesDisadvantagesLack new ideasLack new ideasPolitical In Political In

fights for fights for promotionspromotions

Morale problem Morale problem from those not from those not promotedpromoted

InternalInternal vv ExternalExternalpromotionspromotions

External External AdvantagesAdvantages

New New insightsinsights

New bloodNew blood

External External DisadvantagesDisadvantages

Morale problems Morale problems for companyfor company

Longer Longer adjustment timeadjustment time

May not be May not be culture fitculture fit

Human Resource Human Resource Information System (HRIS)Information System (HRIS)

Sophisticated computerized systems to Sophisticated computerized systems to control of the flow of HR information control of the flow of HR information

Integrated approach with wide Integrated approach with wide applicationsapplicationsRecruitment and applicant trackingRecruitment and applicant trackingEmployment transactionsEmployment transactionsSuccession planningSuccession planningTraining and career developmentTraining and career development

Raises employee rights concernsRaises employee rights concerns

5-7

Skills InventoriesSkills Inventories

A list of names, A list of names, characteristics, characteristics, and skills of the and skills of the people working people working for the for the organization.organization.

Estimating SupplyEstimating Supply

INTERNALINTERNAL

TurnoverTurnoverGrowthGrowthQuitsQuits

EXTERNALEXTERNAL

GradsGrads BirthsBirths ImmigrationImmigration Second Second

CareersCareers

Major Planning ActivitiesMajor Planning Activities

Succession PlanningSuccession PlanningStaffing predictionsStaffing predictionsWorkforce needsWorkforce needsHuman Resource costs ( pay, benefits Human Resource costs ( pay, benefits

etc.)etc.)Legislative initiativesLegislative initiativesProductivityProductivity

Political trendsPolitical trends

Safety & terrorismSafety & terrorismManaging employee data Managing employee data

securely securely Government access to Government access to

employee informationemployee informationImmigrationImmigrationShifting Social Burdens to Shifting Social Burdens to

Corporations and individualsCorporations and individuals

Demographic trendsDemographic trendsAging workforce will bring new S&H Aging workforce will bring new S&H

issues to forefrontissues to forefront

Labor shortages and safety issues from Labor shortages and safety issues from overworked employeesoverworked employees

Gender issues such as ergonomic Gender issues such as ergonomic injuries in female employeesinjuries in female employees

Communicating with non-English Communicating with non-English speaking employeesspeaking employees

Shortage of Technical TalentShortage of Technical Talent

Brain drain to outsourced countriesBrain drain to outsourced countries Fewer U.S. graduates with technical advanced Fewer U.S. graduates with technical advanced

degreesdegrees Majority of graduates science programs filled Majority of graduates science programs filled

with foreign students 56% Masters and 66% with foreign students 56% Masters and 66% PhDPhD

H1-B Visas limited to 65,000 per yearH1-B Visas limited to 65,000 per year Gates and others want to eliminate H1-B quotas.Gates and others want to eliminate H1-B quotas. What would you recommend?What would you recommend?

Economic trendsEconomic trends

Rising health care costs may lead to Rising health care costs may lead to self medicationself medication

Federal cost cutting health care Federal cost cutting health care measures may increase burden on measures may increase burden on employers to cover a much larger employers to cover a much larger constituency ..e.g. suppliers, parents constituency ..e.g. suppliers, parents of employees, etcof employees, etc..

Social trendsSocial trends 24/7 trend. Mandatory overtime costs, stress, 24/7 trend. Mandatory overtime costs, stress,

fatiguefatigue

Working non-traditional hours, telecommuting, Working non-traditional hours, telecommuting, flex-time flex-time

Workplace violence, rising drug use, high rates Workplace violence, rising drug use, high rates of depressionof depression

Aging parents, dual career couples, latch-key Aging parents, dual career couples, latch-key children. children.

Most years in schoolMost years in school 1.1.NorwayNorway 16.9 (1999/2000)16.9 (1999/2000) 2.2.FinlandFinland 16.7 (1999/2000)16.7 (1999/2000) 3.3.AustraliaAustralia 16.6 (1999/2000)16.6 (1999/2000) 4.4.United KingdomUnited Kingdom 16.4 (1999/2000)16.4 (1999/2000) 5.5.New ZealandNew Zealand 16.2 (1997)16.2 (1997) 6.6.SwedenSweden 16 (1999/2000)16 (1999/2000) 7.7.NetherlandsNetherlands 15.9 (1999/2000)15.9 (1999/2000) 8.8.BelgiumBelgium 15.8 (1999/2000)15.8 (1999/2000) 9.9.IcelandIceland 15.8 (1999/2000)15.8 (1999/2000) 10.10.DenmarkDenmark 15.6 (1999/2000)15.6 (1999/2000) 11.11.FranceFrance 15.4 (1999/2000)15.4 (1999/2000) 12.12.GermanyGermany 15.3 (1998/1999)15.3 (1998/1999)

Murders with firearmsMurders with firearms1.1. South AfricaSouth Africa 0.73 per 1000 people0.73 per 1000 people2.2. ColombiaColombia 0.53 per 1000 people0.53 per 1000 people3.3. ThailandThailand 0.32 per 1000 people0.32 per 1000 people4.4. ZimbabweZimbabwe 0.05 per 1000 people0.05 per 1000 people5.5. MexicoMexico 0.03 per 1000 people0.03 per 1000 people6.6. Costa RicaCosta Rica 0.03 per 1000 people0.03 per 1000 people7.7. BelarusBelarus 0.03 per 1000 people0.03 per 1000 people8.8. United StatesUnited States 0.03 per 1000 people0.03 per 1000 people9.9. UruguayUruguay 0.02 per 1000 people0.02 per 1000 people10.10. LithuaniaLithuania 0.02 per 1000 people0.02 per 1000 people11.11. SlovakiaSlovakia 0.02 per 1000 people0.02 per 1000 people12.12. Czech Rep.Czech Rep. 0.02 per 1000 people0.02 per 1000 people

Life expectancy from birthLife expectancy from birth 1.1.AndorraAndorra 83.48 years83.48 years 2.2.MacauMacau 81.78 years81.78 years 3.3.San MarinoSan Marino 81.33 years81.33 years 4.4.JapanJapan 80.91 years80.91 years 5.5.SingaporeSingapore 80.29 years80.29 years 6.6.AustraliaAustralia 80 years80 years 7.7.GuernseyGuernsey 79.9 years79.9 years 8.8.SwitzerlandSwitzerland 79.86 years79.86 years 9.9.SwedenSweden 79.84 years79.84 years 10.10.Hong KongHong Kong 79.8 years79.8 years

Most foreign aid per-capitaMost foreign aid per-capita 1.1.LuxembourgLuxembourg $356.69 per capita$356.69 per capita 2.2.NorwayNorway $309.38 $309.38 3.Denmark3.Denmark $303.6 $303.6 4.Netherlands4.Netherlands $217.83$217.83 5.Sweden5.Sweden $191.51$191.51 6.Switzerland6.Switzerland $150.64 $150.64 7.France7.France $105.41$105.41 8.United Kingdom8.United Kingdom $75.28$75.28 9.Belgium9.Belgium $74.36$74.36 10.Finland10.Finland $73.12 $73.12 11.Ireland11.Ireland $72.88$72.88 12.Japan12.Japan $71.67$71.67

Biggest PopulationsBiggest Populations

1.1.ChinaChina 1,284,303,705 1,284,303,705 2.2.IndiaIndia 1,045,845,226 1,045,845,226 3.3.United StatesUnited States 280,562,489 280,562,489 4.4.Indonesia Indonesia 231,328,092 231,328,092 5.5.BrazilBrazil 176,029,560176,029,56066.Pakistan.Pakistan 147,663,429 147,663,429 7.7.RussiaRussia 144,978,573 144,978,573 8.8.BangladeshBangladesh 133,376,684 133,376,684 9.9.NigeriaNigeria 129,934,911129,934,91110.10.JapanJapan 126,974,628126,974,628