Chapter 3 Population• Describe global population distribution

• Examine causes and consequences of population change

• To understand the Malthusian argument

• To describe demographic and economic characteristics of a population

• To understand the Demographic Transition

• To describe the baby boom

• Understanding economic migration

Population Explodes after the Industrial Revolution

Population Density

Cartogram of Global Population

Population Growth over Time and Space

• World population growth is slowing• Still adding ca. 80 million per year• Most in developing countries• Some countries are losing population

(Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan)• Forces affecting population change ∆P = BR – DR + I – O or ∆P = NGR +NMR

Fertility & Mortality: in 2002:US crude birthrate = 15/1000,crude death rate = 9/1000,

natural growth rate = 6/1000 or 0.6%

Malthusian Theory

• Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically

• And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically)

Inputs

Output

arithmetic

Output if there are diminishing returns

Malthus’ Expectations & Reality• Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production• Failed to see the opening of new lands (especially in the new world)• Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates

Time scale on this diagram is not realistic

Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth

Pioneering Dynamic Systems Modeling

Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth

Demographic Transition Theory

• Based on Western European & North American History

Stages in Demographic Transition Theory

• Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy

• Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth

• Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth

• Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

Geography of Birth RatesStrongly correlated with level of economic development

Geography of Death RatesEvidence of Demographic Transition?

Shifting Causes of Death

• Stage 1 – Poor Health Care

• Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with better diet and public health measures

(Figure 3.18)

• Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2

• Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.20 and 3.21). Some countries below ZPG

Population Growth & Income

The Slowing of Population Growth

Issues similar to The Limits to Growth

Future Population

Levels

Fertility levelsremain as theyare now

Fertility levelsdecline

Contrasts between Malthus and the Demographic Transition

• Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted

• Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall

• However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion)

• Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.27)

Criticisms of Demographic Transition Theory

• Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan)

• Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries

• Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates

• We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)