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    Chapter 2

    Agribusiness marketing environment

    Introduction

    Successful marketing requires that managers know how markets work. This is important for

    several reasons. First, supply and demand have a great deal to do with market size and

    product prices, both of which should be of interest to an agribusiness manager. Second, a

    successful marketing program requires that marketing managers understand how consumers

    make their buying decisions and how they respond to changes in price and other factors.

    Third, long term profits require that the product seller has a correct picture of costs, and how

    prices of inputs to the production process and products purchased for resale are decided.

    Fourth, success in the marketplace requires that managers be able to see the market setting

    that their firm faces and alter their decision making accordingly.

    Understanding Consumer demand

    Profit equation: setting an acceptable price has a great deal to do with consumer happiness

    and company profit. The lower the price, the more consumers are likely to buy and consume.

    The price of inputs or materials needed to make products is also of great interest to producers.

    The lower the prices paid for inputs and the higher the price paid for the final product, the

    larger the firms profits.

    Profit = total revenue total cost

    Or symbolically

    = TR TC

    Profit is the difference between price paid (total revenue) and cost of product (total cost). The

    objective of the firm is to make the difference between TR and TC as large as possible by

    raising TR, lowering TC, or doing both.

    Total revenue: another important part of any firms profit potential is total revenue. It is

    simply calculated by multiplying the price received per unit sold by the total number of units

    sold (quantity).

    Total revenue (TR) = price per unit (Py) X quantity sold (Y)

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    Or symbolically

    TR = Py X Y

    It is important for firm managers to remember the main goal of the firm is to increase long-

    term profits, not just increase the quantity of products sold. For firms that use a production or

    selling approach to the market, the corporate goal becomes increased sales. Profits are

    supposed to take care of themselves. Unfortunately, they rarely do. If the selling price is too

    low or costs are too high, increased sales could result in a large loss. A good part of the

    success in trying to increase profits comes from knowing the relationships between total

    revenue and levels of price and quantity.

    Table 2.1: demand schedule

    Price $ Quantity = Total revenue($)

    5.00 10 50

    4.50 20 90

    4.00 30 120

    3.50 40 140

    3.00 50 150

    2.75 55 151.25

    2.50 60 150

    2.00 70 1401.50 80 120

    1.00 90 90

    (plot a graph)

    A close look shows that as price and quantity move in opposite directions, the level of total

    revenue does not remain the same.

    One of the major concerns of marketers is the effect on total revenue when a products price

    is changed. As price goes down, the quantity demanded goes up, showing that the law of

    demand works. At first, TR increases as expected, but after a while it reaches a maximum

    price of $2.75 and a quantity of 55 units sold.

    Consumer demand

    In a free market economy where the customer is king, the customer directs what is

    produced by what he or she purchases. From the study of consumer behaviour, it has been

    discovered that consumers always seek the highest level of total happiness from the

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    collection of goods they consume. When choosing each additional good to consume, they

    always pick the one that gives them the greatest addition to the overall total level of

    happiness. This means individual consumers select the goods that give them the greatest total

    satisfaction.

    The second guideline is that the amount of satisfaction received from consuming each

    additional unit of a product decreases as more is consumed. If satisfaction did not decline

    with increased consumption, people would consume enormous amounts of single products

    that gave them the greatest happiness to the exclusion of everything else. Decreasing

    satisfaction for individual products makes consumers demand a wide selection or variety of

    products to increase their total satisfaction.

    Role of price

    Consumers by showing a willingness to pay a certain price for an item, show that they are

    getting at least as much satisfaction from the consumption of a good as they could get from

    the consumption of another good available at the same price. If the price is lowered, more

    consumers will feel this way, and the quantity demanded will go up. Producers operate in

    much the same way. They have a limited amount of money to invest to produce items

    demanded by consumers. By paying a certain price for an input, producers show that it isworth at least that much to them in the production process. How much producers are willing

    to pay for the input really depends on how much they think the consumers are willing to pay

    for their products. In this way, the producers demand for inputs, or materials, depends on the

    consumers demand for the firms products.

    The demand for tractors, feed, dairy cows, processing plants, e.t.c. comes in part from the

    consumer demand for retail food items. For example, the demand by farmers for fertilizer, in

    part, comes indirectly from the consumers demand for chicken. The producers want to

    enlarge their flocks to meet the demand for chicken. Larger flock sizes lead to greater

    demand for chicken feed, which leads to a greater demand for corn, and finally the fertilizer

    to grow it. Thus, the chicken grower, the corn farmer, the chicken processor, and the fertilizer

    producer are all linked together in the agribusiness system.

    At each step along the way it is price that helps each of the firms to make its decision, and

    price that quickly communicates any changes in the agribusiness system.

    Factors that Influence Demand

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    There are seven factors that influence the level of consumer demand. They include the

    following:

    1. Own price: the lower the price, the greater the quantity.

    2. Price of substitute: increasing the price of a good will lead to increased demand of

    its substitute

    3. Price of complement: a rise in the price of a complementary good discourages the

    consumption of the good in question.

    4. Income: the level of consumer income changes the level of consumer demand. For

    most goods, there is a direct connection, or relationship between income and demand.

    5. Population: changes in population can change the level of product demand. More

    people in a market create a greater demand for a good at every price.

    6. Taste and preference: consumer demand rarely stays constant. Consumer tastes and

    preferences are always changing. If the long term use of a product is decreasing, it

    may no longer fit the need of consumers; a marketer needs to know this to change the

    marketing mix or even switch to the production of a different product.

    7. Seasonality: consumer demand is influenced by the time of the year. A marketer

    must know the seasonal patterns of consumption for a product to schedule the

    production and plan marketing activities.

    Demand Shifters

    Another area of consumer demand is the difference between a change in the quantity

    demanded by consumers and a shift in consumer demand. If a change in the own

    price of an item brings a change in the number of units sold, then there has been a

    change in quantity demanded.

    However, if price remain the same and the quantity sold changes, this means a shift in

    demand.

    Price Quantity 1 Quantity 2

    5.00 10 20

    4.50 20 30

    4.00 30 40

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    3.50 40 50

    3.00 50 60

    2.75 55 65

    2.50 60 70

    2.00 70 80

    1.50 80 901.00 90 100

    The factors that cause this movement of the demand schedule are called demand shifters.

    They include the following:

    1. Price of substitute goods

    2. Price of complements

    3. Income

    4. Population

    5. Taste and preference

    6. Seasonality.

    Changes in any of these conditions can lead consumers to demand more or less of a product

    even though the price does not change. These shifts can have a powerful impact on the long-

    run level of producer sale and profit so one needs to pay attention so as not to be caught off

    guard.

    Understanding Agribusiness Supply

    Production Process

    Production is the use of inputs to create an output that has economic value. The production

    process is how an agribusiness combines the various inputs to create an output. Agribusiness

    uses materials, equipments, buildings, people and a variety of other things to produce the

    goods and services they sell to others. Managers are responsible for using these items in a

    profitable manner in the production process.

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    Inputs to the production process include items such as grain, animals, chemicals, labour and

    anything else that an agribusiness uses to make an output.

    Output from the production process can be a commodity such as feeds, fertilizer, milk and so

    on. It can also be a food product such as ice cream hamburger, e.t.c. services such as

    financial planning, insurance, and market price news are also considered inputs.

    Production Decision

    When agribusinesses decide to produce an output they must make four major production

    decisions:

    1. What to produce? What products and services can this business profitably offer?

    2. How to produce? What is the best combination of inputs to use in producing the

    output?

    3. How much to produce? What is the correct amount of output to produce that will

    increase the firms long term profits?

    4. When to produce? What is the correct time to produce the output or to offer the

    service?

    Answers to these four production decisions rests heavily on the demand for the product or

    output. The answers are also changed by the costs of the inputs.

    Being a successful manager means having a production process that is both technologically

    and economically efficient. A process is technologically efficient when the maximum or

    highest output per unit is obtained at all levels of input use. This must be done first. Once this

    efficiency is reached the manager can turn his or her attention to reaching economic

    efficiency. A process is economically efficient when the level of output reaches the highest

    profit. This is determined by the cost to produce the product (input cost) and the selling price

    of that product (output). The managers primary goal is to increase the long-term profits of

    the firm; therefore, he or she must be interested in both efficiencies.

    Production Function

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    The heart of the production process is the production function. The production

    function sums up the output possible from various levels of inputs. For example, it

    might describe the amount of grain output possible from various levels of fertilizer

    use. A representative production function is shown below. The amount of ice cream

    production possible using various amounts of labour is shown by the line labelled

    total product(TP). The more technically efficient the plant is the greater production at

    each level of labour use (TP2). The less technically efficient plant produces a lower

    amount at each level of labour (TP2)

    Tp3

    TP2 Greater technical efficiency

    TP1 less technical efficiency

    output

    Input

    Total Product Curve

    The shape of the curve shows the level of output possible as more and more inputs (workers)

    are added to the production process. From the curve, output rises rapidly with the addition of

    the first few workers. Beyond point A, output continue to go up, but at a smaller or lower rate

    than in the beginning until output reaches a maximum, or its highest point, point C, then falls.

    The drop happens because at some point. Adding more workers causes the efficiency to go

    down. The extra workers get in the way of the others. We could draw curves for each of the

    other inputs used in the production of ice cream and show similar results.

    C

    TP

    B

    Rational

    production

    A Range

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    140

    120

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    The total product curve tells the level of output possible from various levels of input. It gives

    useful information about:

    1. The level of contribution each additional unit of input makes to output.

    2. How efficiently each added unit of input is used in the production process.

    Other inputs are held constant.

    Measurement of cost

    A useful way to look at cost of production is to separate the costs according to whether they

    occur as a result of:

    1. The passage of time

    2. Undertaking of production

    Fixed cost comes with the passage of time and do not change with the level of output. Fixed

    costs usually include such items as insurance, property taxes, rent, or mortgage payments.

    These costs must be paid regardless of output, even if nothing is produced. Variable costs

    usually include materials, shipping, packaging, and so on. The level of these costs change

    with output.

    Determination of Economic Efficiency.

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    It is important to know that maximum profit does not happen at the point where input

    efficiency is highest or where the highest output occurs. Maximum profit is measured by the

    cost of inputs compared with the revenue earned by selling outputs.

    Revenue

    Output(s) @ $10/unit

    Number of

    labourers

    Labour cost@

    $ 200

    Profit(s)

    0 0 1 0 0

    30 300 1 200 100

    100 1000 2 400 600

    168 1680 3 600 1080

    220 2200 4 800 1400

    240 2400 5 1000 1400

    252 2520 6 1200 1320

    245 2450 7 1400 1050

    The highest or maximum output from dairy plant happened when six workers were

    employed. Output sales gave revenue of $2.50, but the plant had a profit of only $1,320.

    When only four workers were employed the plant had revenues of $2,200, and profit of

    $1,400. Without looking closely at costs and revenues, the plant manager might have

    assumed the plant was making maximum profit where output was greatest. Only by looking

    at the numbers was she able to determine the economic efficiency of the production process.

    Law of Supply

    In trying to achieve maximum profit, the agribusiness manager has to keep one eye on the

    cost of production and the other eye on the price received for output. Although both factors

    could change dramatically, usually the managers greatest worry is selling price. What the

    manager does not want to happen is to produce a large quantity of a product only to have the

    selling price drop. This could wipe out any profits the manager might have been counting on.

    If the selling price looks like it will be too low to make a profit, the manager will simply not

    make the product. This is the idea that underlies the law of supply.

    Table 2.3 shows the relationship between selling price and quantity supplied.

    Price Quantity supplied

    $5.00 1000

    $4.50 900$4.00 800

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    $3.50 700

    $3.00 600

    $2.50 500

    $2.00 400

    $1.50 300

    $1.00 200$ 0.50 100

    (plot in a graph)

    At a price of $0.50 per unit only 100units are offered for sale by the suppliers. Only the

    lowest cost producers can make profit. It is very likely that at this price no one can make a

    profit. They remain in the market only to keep their products before consumers with the hope

    that prices will soon rise.

    As selling price increases each seller is willing to offer a greater quantity of the product for

    sale, and more sellers enter the market. At even higher prices each producer can make a nice

    profit and is willing to offer a larger quantity for sale. This relationship between price and the

    quantity supplied by sellers is called a supply schedule.

    Price is not the only factor that will affect supply. The non price determinants of supply are:

    1. Changes in the price of other goods: for example, if a diary plant manufactures both

    cottage cheese and ice cream. Imagine what happens when the price of ice cream goes

    up and the price of cottage cheese stays the same. the manager will reduce production

    of cottage cheese and produce more ice cream.

    2. Expectations of future selling price: if prices are expected to rise, sellers will produce

    and offer more quantities for sale and vice versa.

    3. Number of sellers in the market: if there is only one seller of a product say doughnut

    in the neighbourhood, who produces 500 doughnuts at $0.50 per doughnut,. If anotherseller comes on board and also produces 500 doughnut at $.50 per day. There will be

    a rightward shift of the supply curve because there are twice as many doughnuts for

    sale at the original price.

    4. Changes in production costs: increase in the cost of production will result in less

    profit for the seller if the selling price does not change. Suppliers will not be as eager

    to offer product for sale in this situation.

    Price Determination and Price Discovery

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    Until now, when we talked about supply and demand curves, price was always known with

    certainty. Changes in price caused the quantity demanded or the quantity supplied to change

    along the supply or demand schedule. When price was held constant, and the factors that

    influence demand and supply changed, the demand and supply curves shifted. Now at the

    same price, more or less quantity would be demanded or supplied depending on the change.

    One may think from the discussion that price is set by someone, it is not. Price is determined

    by the interaction of supply and demand. When a supply curve for a product is shown in the

    same graph as the demand curve for that same product, price is determined where the two

    curves cross. This is calledprice determination

    price P S

    D

    quantity Q

    An important point to note is that where the curves cross supply and demand is in balance,

    the quantity supplied by the marketers of the product just equals the quantity demanded by

    the consumers of the product. There is neither a surplus of product in the market, nor is there

    a shortage.

    In the real world, a supply-and-demand curve does not exist, they are estimated. Any attempt

    to determine price by these methods will not truly reflect what is going on in the marketplace.

    That brings us toprice discovery.

    Sellers and buyers constantly haggle over price. It is a negotiation process where neither

    party has complete information about supply, demand, or the factors which affect either one.

    The process of negotiating a price is not exact. Whether the agreed-on price is above or

    below the general price level for similar transactions in other parts of the country depends on

    the following:

    Amount, quality and timeliness of the information available to both parties.

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    Bargaining ability of each participant.

    One can see that information plays an important role in being successful in the price

    discovery process. The price discovery process usually works very well, meaning there are

    few transactions at prices very much above or below the current market price. Some people

    are better at bargaining over price than other people. They can negotiate a little higher selling

    price or a little lower buying price because of their skill.

    It is important that marketers know and understand the difference between price

    determination and discovery. Both are important because price sets both the size of the

    market and the amount of profit possible. Price determination helps researchers understand

    the long-term effects of changes in the marketplace, and price discovery helps agribusiness

    managers set prices for day-to day operations.

    Law of one price

    The law of one price state that when markets are operating normally, there should be only

    one common price for each product in a market, after adjusting for the cost of storage,

    transportation, and processing.

    If prices differ by more than the cost of storage, transportation, and processing, then price isout of line. When this happens, there is an economic incentive to shift from an area of low

    prices to another area where prices are being paid. The process of capturing extra profits in

    settings where prices are out of line is called arbitrage

    Time: in markets separated by time, the difference between the current price and an expected

    market price sometime in the future must be equal to the cost of storage for that period. For

    example, the price of wheat at harvest time should be lower than the price of wheat six

    months later by the cost of six months storage.

    Place: in markets separated by distance, the difference in price between the two locations

    must be equal to the cost of transporting the product between the two points.

    Form: in markets separated by differences in product form, the difference between the prices

    paid for the raw commodity and the price received for the processed product must be equal to

    the cost of processing.

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    In this way, the law of one price keeps markets in balance that are separated by time,

    distance, and form. There is a natural tendency for markets to move toward the balance

    defined by the law of one price. If markets are walking correctly, whatever differences exist

    will be small so that resources are always being used correctly and prices only differ by the

    cost of storage, transportation and processing.

    Markets Environments

    Markets are the heart and soul of a capitalist economy and varying degrees of competition

    lead to different market structures, with differing implications for the outcomes of the market

    place. Several characteristics of a market environment determine its structure. Each of these

    characteristics is briefly discussed below:

    Number of firms in the market: this forms an important basis of classifying market

    structure. The number of firms in an industry determines the extent of competition in

    the industry.

    Control over product prices: the extent to which an individual exercises control over

    the price of the product it sells is another important characteristic of market structure.

    Types of the product sold in the market: the extent to which products of different

    firms in the industry can be differentiated is also a characteristic that is used in

    classifying market structures.

    Barriers to new firms entering the market: the difficulty or extent to which new firms

    can enter the market for a product is also a characteristic of market structures

    Existence of non-price competition: market structures differ to the extent that firms in

    industry compete with others on the basis of non-price factors, such as difference in

    product characteristics and advertising.

    Four types of ideal market settings or situations have been established and they are

    1. Perfect competition

    2. Monopoly

    3. Monopolistic competition

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    4. Oligopoly

    Perfect Competition

    When economists refer to perfect competition, they are particularly referring to the

    impersonal nature of this market structure. The impersonality of the market is due to the

    existence of a large number of suppliers of the products- there are so many suppliers in the

    agribusiness industry that no firm views another supplier as a competitor. Thus the

    competition under perfect competition is perfect.

    This ideal setting requires that certain conditions be met. The three conditions that are

    necessary before a market structure is considered perfectly competitive are:

    i. Homogeneity of the produce sold

    ii. Existence of many small buyers and sellers

    iii. Perfect mobility of resources or factors of production.

    First, the product must be similar, or homogenous. This means that the product produced by

    each producer is exactly like that produced by all other producers. Agricultural commodities

    are good examples of similar products. For example, yellow corn from a farm in Harare is the

    same as that from a farm in Hwange.

    Second, there must be many small firms in the market. No single firms actions can influence

    prices if they are all small in size. This means that prices are set solely by market supply and

    market demand. The individual firms must take the market price as their selling price and

    have no power to set their own price.

    The third condition, perfect mobility of resources requires that all factors of production can

    be readily switched from one user to another. The implication is that resources move to the

    most profitable industry. It should be easy to enter and leave the production process. This

    means that if prices get high enough to be attractive it should be fairly easy to become a

    producer. It means also that if prices get low it should be easy to stop being a producer.

    Production agriculture has long been used as an example of perfect competition. However,

    with the changes that have occurred in production agriculture in the last two decades, this is

    no longer a good example.

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    Firms in a perfect competition are price takers. They do not compete against one another.

    They compete against the market. They can produce and sell all they want at the price the

    market gives them. They have no control over price. There are no excess profits to capture,

    which means firms can only make enough money to cover costs.

    Consumers are not much better off. They get a plain vanilla product. All firms products

    are just the same. There are no product differences to fit individual consumer needs or tastes.

    The reason perfect competition is held up as the ideal market setting is that it does result in

    economic efficiency. Resources are allocated properly, business firms do not make excess

    profits and consumers pay the lowest possible price. As a result, society as a whole is made

    better off. However, individual business people and consumers are likely to be happy

    Monopoly

    Monopoly can be considered the opposite of perfect competition. It is a market form in which

    there is only one seller. Monopolies can be very rare if not impossible in the agricultural/

    agribusiness market. There are many factors that give rise to a monopoly. A monopoly can

    exist in an industry because a patent was obtained for a product by its inventor. A monopoly

    can also arise if a company owns the entire supply of a necessary material needed to produce

    a product. A monopoly can be created by a government agency when it sells a marketfranchise for a particular product or service. Finally a monopoly can arise due to declining

    cost of production for a particular product leading to case of natural monopoly.

    For the producer, monopoly seems to offer the best of all worlds. In this market setting, a

    single large producer provides the entire product that the market needs. There is only one

    firm and that firm makes up the entire industry. It can set either market price or market output

    because it has total control over supply.

    While some under good market circumstances might prefer this market environment,

    consumers and society do not. The presence of a monopoly means less output is available at

    higher prices than would be the case in a perfectly competitive market setting. This is the

    reason society seeks to prevent monopolies.

    Monopolistic Competition

    Monopolistic competition is characterized by the existence of many sellers. Usually, if an

    industry has 50 or more firms producing products that are close substitutes of each other , it is

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    said to have a large number of firms. in monopolistic competition, the firms are about the

    same size.

    The most distinguishing characteristics of monopolistic competition is the fact that the firm

    have highly differentiated products, this means that consumers believe there are significant

    differences between the products offered for sale by different firms. It is in fact, immaterial

    whether these products are actually different or simply perceived to be so. So long as

    consumers treat them as different products they satisfy one of the characteristics of

    monopolistic competition. In many agribusiness markets, producers practice product

    differentiation by altering the physical composition, using special packaging, or simply

    claiming to have superior products based on brand images and/ or advertising.

    In addition to the above requirements, relative ease of entry into the industry is considered

    another important requirement of a monopolistically competitive market organisation.

    Examples of monopolistic competitions are: fast food stores and many food retailers and

    manufacturers.

    Overall consumer happiness may be better served this way, because monopolistic

    competition results in a wide variety of products available to consumers. If a differentiated

    product is to capture extra profits over the long term, then the product must truly be different

    enough to prevent other producers from duplicating the difference. If not, competitors will

    quickly copy the product, and the extra profit will soon be bid away. Fierce competition

    among firms keeps prices and profits relatively low and this is very good for consumers.

    Oligopolistic Competition

    The key features of oligopoly are

    Only a few large firms present in the industry.

    A firms actions influence the level of production and prices within the market.

    Each firm is aware of other firms and take their reactions into account.

    Competition is through product differentiation, heavily promoted to buyers.

    There are oligopoly characteristics in the markets for most agricultural inputs e.g. fertilizer,seeds, e.t.c. and few food processors and manufacturers e.g. soft drink manufacturers.

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    An important characteristic of an oligopolistic market structure is the interdependence of

    firms in the industry. The interdependence, actual or perceived, arises from the small number

    of firms in the industry. Thus, an oligopolistic firm always considers the reactions of its rivals

    in formulating its pricing or output decisions. Because there are only a few firms in this type

    of industry, they can watch their competitors closely and probably react to any market

    strategy their competitors choose to pursue.

    Producers in an oligopolistic market face an unusual market setting. there is little reason to

    compete on the basis of price in this market setting because a firm cannot win. A price

    increase will result in a loss of sales and lower profits. A price decrease will cause

    competitors to lower their prices also. Sales of each firm will remain the same, but selling

    prices will be lower and so will profit.

    Understanding of Agribusiness Markets

    The markets of agricultural commodities and food products are often very different from

    those of other consumer products.

    Physical Characteristics

    The first step is to look at the physical characteristics. Most agricultural commodities are:

    1. Bulky

    2. Low in value per unit of weight

    3. Perishable

    4. Produced in areas distant from consumers

    5. Fixed supply in short time.

    This means that commodity handlers must seek the most efficient means to process and move

    the products to distant consumers quickly. Perishability is a constant problem for firms in

    agribusiness. There is an old saying about this problem. in agribusiness, you sell it or you

    smell it". The fixed supply means agribusiness firms can be hurt by large, unexpected price

    changes.

    Characteristics of Agricultural Supply

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    The biological nature of the production process gives producers little control over how much

    is produced once the process is under way. Overall production during the crop or marketing

    year is largely set by such uncontrollable factors as weather and disease.

    For commodities such as grains, unless imported, the supply is fixed between harvests

    regardless of price. Once the crop is planted, quantity supplied will not change much in

    response to price changes. But small changes in supply will cause very large changes in price.

    Characteristics of Agricultural Demand

    Unlike supply, domestic demand for agricultural commodities is usually stable from year to

    year. There may be seasonal changes for a product from year to year, but overall demand

    remains the same. This is because consumer demands for food are largely a function of habit.

    The lower limit on food demand is hunger. If you are really hungry you will pay a lot of

    money to get food. At the upper limit of food demand, your stomach holds a certain amount

    of food. No matter how low food prices go, you can eat only so much food before you fell

    uncomfortable. For most of us, the difference in the amount of food that leaves us feeling

    hungry or full is small. For this reason, food demand is relatively stable and not very sensitive

    to rice changes.

    A closer look at food demand leads to several interesting facts. First, the demand for specific

    food products tends to e price sensitive. This means a change in price will cause the quantity

    sold to change. The availability of substitutes causes this response.

    Second, the demand is less sensitive to price the closer one gets to the farm level because

    there are few substitutes for farm-produced commodities.

    Agricultural Price Patterns

    The prices of many agricultural commodities show patterns over time. These patterns relate

    to the biological nature of food production and slight variations in consumption. Those

    patterns that happen yearly are called seasonal price patterns. Patterns that repeat longer than

    a year are called price cycles. Seasonal price patterns are caused by the seasonality of

    production and consumer demand. For grains, fruits and vegetables there is usually only a

    single crop year, while demand is constant throughout the year. This difference in supply and

    demand produces the pattern of prices throughout the year.

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    A graph of monthly prices would show price is lowest at harvest time, followed by a slow

    rise each month afterward. The price is highest just before the next harvest. The increase in

    price each month after harvest is the markets method of rewarding someone who stores part

    of the annual crop to meet year round demand.

    Price cycles go beyond one year. They also have their origin in the biological nature of

    production, as do seasonal patterns. In these cases the biology does not permit a rapid

    adjustment in supply adjustment patterns. A full cycle of rise and fall for hogs may take 3.5

    to 4 years, while for cattle it may take as long as 11 to 12 years.

    Knowing where you are in the price cycle is critical to planning./ producers do not wish to

    expand output at the peak of the price cycle knowing they might face a pattern of falling

    prices for years. But they might consider expanding if they were at the bottom or on an

    upward swing of the price cycle.