chapter 12 iwrm as a tool for cc adaptation.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 12Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM) as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Prof. Dr. Ali El-NaqaHashemite University
June 2013
IWRM can help adaptation to climate change -3-
Better water management makes it easier to respond to changes in water availability.
Basin planning allows for risk identification and mitigation.
Stakeholder participation helps in mobilization for action, risk assessment.
Good management systems allows the right incentives to be passed on to water users.
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change
Outline presentation
• The drivers/physical science basis of climate change
• The observed and projected impacts on the water cycle
• The consequences for water use and ecosystem functioning.
This session will address:
Climate variability and climate change
1a – An example of Temperature variability; fluctuates
from observation to observation around a mean value
1b to 1d – Combined variability with climate change
2a – An increase of variability with no change in the mean
2b and 2c – Combined increased variability with climate
change.
Impact on probability distributions for temperatures
Increase in the mean
Increase in the variance
Increase in the mean and variance.
Variations of deuterium (δD) and greenhouse gases over 650,000
years
Deuterium (δD) – a
proxy for local
temperature
Carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) – all
have increased over
past 10 years.
Variations obtained from trapped air within the ice cores
and from recent atmospheric measurements
RF due to concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset
panels)
Figure SPM.1
Radiative forcing
There is a balance
between incoming solar
radiation and outgoing
terrestrial radiation.
Any process that alters
the energy balance of the
earth–atmosphere system is
known as a radiative forcing
mechanism.
Global RF estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic CO2, CH4, N2O and other important
agents and mechanisms
LOSU: Level of scientific understanding
Links of radiative forcing to other aspects of climate
change
Observed and projected temperature change
Figure SPM.5
Multi-model global
averages of surface
warming (relative to
1980–1999) for the
scenarios A2, A1B and
B1, shown as
continuations of the
20th century
simulations
Uncertainty characterization
Term inology D egree of confidence in
being correct
Very H igh confidence A t least 9 out of 10 chance
H igh confidence A bout 8 out of 10 chance
M edium confidence A bout 5 out of 10 chance
Low confidence A bout 2 out of 10 chance
Very low confidence Less than 1 out of 10 chance
Quantitatively calibrated levels
of confidence
Likelihood scale
Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence
Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence
Very likely > 90% probability
Likely > 66% probability
About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely < 33% probability
Very unlikely < 10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely < 1% probability
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
Scenarios
considered by
the IPCC in their
Third
Assessment
Report of 2001
IPCC:
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change
Scheme of events: From GHG emission to climate change
impacts
Observed changes and trends in physical systems and
biological systems
Locations of significant
changes in data series
of physical systems
and biological systems,
together with surface
air temperature
changes over the
period 1970–2004
Regional temperature and precipitation changes
Range of temperature
and precipitation
changes up to the 21st
century across recent (fifteen models – red
bars) and pre-TAR (seven models – blue
bars) AOGCM
projections under the
SRES A2 emissions
scenarios for 32 world
regions, expressed as
rate of change per
century
Projections of future climate change as they relate to
different aspects of water• Changes in precipitation frequency and
intensity
• Changes in average annual run-off
• Impacts of sea level rise on coastal zones
• Water quality changes
• Groundwater changes
• Impacts on ecosystems.
Climate change impacts on water quality
More intense rainfall:
• Increase in suspended solids/turbidity
• Pollutants (fertilizers, pesticides, municipal wastewater)
• Increase in waterborne diseases
Reduced/increased water flow in rivers:
• Less/more dilution of pollution
• Fluctuations in salinity estuaries
Lowering water levels in lakes:
• Re-suspension of bottom sediments
• increased turbidity
• liberating compounds with negative impactsHigher surface water temperatures:
• Algal blooms and increase in bacteria, fungi > toxins
• Less oxygen.
Lake Tanganyika: Trends in temperature and oxygenated
depth 150 m
600 m
Lake Tanganyika: Impacts of climate change on production
Increased thermal stability and decline in wind velocity:
Reduced mixing depth
Diminished deep-water nutrient inputs to surface waters
Decline in primary productivity
Decline in pelagic fisheries.
Projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on
ecosystems
Climate change impacts on ecological processes
Food chain: Oak – butterfly –great tit
Global warming
1 C temperature rise: 100 km shift in biome
Global distribution biomes
Average temperature (° C)
An
nu
al p
recip
ita
tio
n (
cm
)
Examples of range shifts and changes in population densities• Extension of southern species to the north• Decline in krill in the Southern Ocean• Occurrence of sub-tropical plankton species in temperate
waters• Changes in geographical distributions of fish species• Replacement of cold-water invertebrate and fish species in
the Rhône River by thermophilic species• Bird species that no longer migrate out of Europe during the
winter• Extension of alpine plants to higher altitudes• Spread of disease vectors (e.g. malaria, Lyme disease,
bluetongue) and damaging insects.
Key issues facing ecosystems under climate change
• Ecosystems tolerate some level of CC and, in some form or another, will persist
• They are increasingly subjected to other human-induced pressures
• Exceeding critical thresholds and triggering non-linear responses > novel states that are poorly understood
• Time-lags
• Species extinction (global vs local)/invasion exotics.
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Basic Principles and Elements of Adaptation Strategies
Goal and objectives of the session
At the end of this session, participants will:
• Be able to identify the main principles and processes that have been proposed for the process of preparing adaptation strategies
• Know major sources of substantive guidance for adaptation planning
• Be able to identify the linkages between adaptation plans and mitigation plans, as well as possible conflicts between the two.
What is adaptation?
Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of
climate change, including climate variability.
It should lead to harmonization with country’s more pressing development priorities such as poverty alleviation, food securityand disaster management.
Variations
Rational decision-making in the area of hard and soft solutions and their combination has to be based on a proper, permanent planning process.
Proactive adaptation – ‘no regrets’ – strategic planning, incremental implementation, and cost-effective.
Autonomous adaptation – ad hoc, cumulative, tactical adjustments to demands, needs, and demographic patterns and technological advances and ecological constraints. Progress as data, events and uncertainties are
clarified.
Extreme events
Adaptation chain
PreventImprove
resilience
Prepare
Respond
Recover
Basic principles
• Action based on assessment and evaluation application of precautionary principle to be considered
• Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events is a basis for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change
• Adaptation policy and measures are assessed in a socio-economic development context
• Adaptation policy to take social, economic and environmental concerns into consideration and ensure that the needs of the present generation are met without compromising the needs of future generations.
Basic principles -2-
• Uncertainty characterization required along the entire process
Concept may not be well understood at political and local levels
Stakeholders must be part of the impact assessment process to own the results
Communication strategy essential.
Basic principles -3-
• Strong interdepartmental (interministerial) and intersectoral cooperation
• Stakeholder involvement identification as part of the assessment process
• Acceptable levels of risk
• No-regret and low-regret options as a priority
• Short-, mid- and long-term measures to be clearly brought in sequence.
Basic principles -4-
• Estimating costs of a measure is a prerequisite for ranking a measure and including it in the budget or in a wider adaptation programme. Cost of inaction?
• Avoiding maladaptation through strong assessment process, stakeholder involvement and considering the externalities of various adaptations.
Development of an adaptation strategy
Information needs
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Development of measures
Information needs
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Development of measures
Process
• Assessing current vulnerability
• Assessing future climate risks
• Formulating an adaptation strategy
• Monitoring, evaluation and review
• Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
• Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity.
• Assessment of the status of all water resources
• Specification of objectives for individual water resources
• Prediction of trends
• Associated assessment of risk for projects already taken
• Specification of measures for those projects at risk of not meeting the objectives
• Monitoring of the impacts of measures for further assessments and decision-making.
In WRM, the process involves
Opportunities for adaptation
• Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion
• Operation and regulation of existing systems for optimal use and accommodating new purposes (e.g. ecology, climate change, vulnerability)
• Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems (e.g. dam safety)
• Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation, pricing, regulation)
• Introduce new efficient technologies (desalination, biotechnology, irrigation, recycling, solar, etc.).
Steps for an adaptation project
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review and synthesise existing information
• Design project for adaptation.
Steps
• Scope project and define objective– Establish the stakeholder process
– Prioritise the key system
– Review the policy process
– Define project objectives
– Develop a communication plan
• Establish a project team
• Review and sysnthesise existing information
• Design project for adaptation
Setting objectives of an adaptation project
• Increase the robustness of infrastructure designs
• Increase the flexibility and resilience of the natural systems
• Enhance the adaptive capacity
• Reverse trends that increase vulnerability
• Improve people’s awareness and preparedness for future climate change
• Integrate adaptation in development planning.
Steps
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review existing information
– Review and synthesize existing information
– Describe adaptation policies and measures in place
– Develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity.
• Design project for adaptation.
Steps
• Scope project and define objective
• Establish a project team
• Review and sysnthesise existing information
• Design project for adaptation– Select approach and methods
– Describe process for assessment of future vulnerability
– Develop monitoring and adaptation plan
– Develop terms of reference for project implementation.
Challenges to making adaptations
• Insufficient monitoring and observation systems
• Lack of basic information
• Settlements in vulnerable areas
• Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework
• Lack of capacity
• Low income.
Adaptive capacity is dependent on:
• Economic resources
• Human resources
• Information and skills
• Technology
• Institutions
• Infrastructure
• Regional and international cooperation.
Conclusions
• Adaptation to present climate variability and extreme events forms the basis for reducing vulnerability to future climate change.
• The adaptation strategy has to be developed within the development context of the system.
• Adaptation happens at various levels within the society – national, regional, local, community and individual.
• The adaptation process is as important as the adaptation strategy.
Think about it
What is the role of sectoral adaptation planning? What is its potential?
Can you give examples of cross-sectoral adaptation planning?
Thank you
Additional Material
The situation to be avoided...
"… but not a drop to drink."
“Water, water everywhere …
Adapted from A.M. Noorian
Information, information everywhere ...
… but none to help me think
Current pressures
Future impacts
Acceptable level of
uncertainty for action
Timing of changes Immediate expected results
Adapted from A.M. Noorian
National Adaptation Programme of Action
• Objective: Serve as a simplified and direct channel of communication for information relating to the urgent and immediate adaptation needs of the LDCs
• Needs addressed through projects and activities that may include capacity building and policy reform
• Available for some 38 LDCs to be taken into account when formulating IWRM plans!
Nairobi Work Programme (2005–2010)
• Improve understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
• Make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a sound scientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.
Areas of work under the Nairobi Work Programme
• Methods and tools
• Data and observations
• Climate modelling, scenarios and downscaling
• Climate related risks and extreme events
• Socio-economic information
• Adaptation planning and practices
• Research
• Technologies for adaptation
• Economic diversification.
Building resilience
Energy and water development are interrelated
Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
Carbon
energy
source?
Water developments with serious energy footprints
• Desalination of seawater for water supply requiring huge amounts of energy
• Large-scale pumping for irrigation
• Large-scale pumping for inter-basin transfers
• Competing water uses leading to reduced inflow to hydropower dams, as e.g. upstream irrigation, resulting in increased thermal energy production.
Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
Energy developments with serious water footprints
• Major hydropower dams in dry tropical climates, resulting in large water losses and changes in downstream flow regimes
• Production of first generation biofuels in tropical developing countries suffering water scarcity already, hampering achievement of the MDG targets on poverty and hunger
• Shale oil development requiring huge amounts of water
• Energy crisis in Germany in 2003 due to inadequate availability of cooling water for nuclear power plants.
Source: Jonch-Clausen,2007
Information inputs
Climate Information
Historical data for trends
Climate predictions
Climate scenarios
Physical information
Geophysical information
Social development scenarios
Sectoral information
Technological options
Supply–demand situations
Economic
information
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Impacts on Water Use Sectors and Impact Assessment
Techniques
OUTLINE
• Impacts of climate change on water resources
• Projected climate changes by region
• Impacts climate change on selected sectors
• Approaches of Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (CCIAV) Assessment
• Climate change scenarios
• Water resources and climate change
• Modelling of water resources systems.
Projected change in hydro meteorological variables
Based on 15 Global
Circulation Models (GCMs)
SRES A1B scenario
Four variables:
― precipitation
― evaporation
― soil moisture
― runoff
Annual mean changes for
2080–2099 relative to
1980–1999
Regions where models
agree on the sign of
change are stippled.
Inferences
• Heightened water scarcities in several semi-arid and arid regions including – Mediterranean Basin – Western USA – Southern Africa – North-eastern Brazil.
• Precipitation is expected to increase at high latitudes (e.g. northern Europe) and in some subtropical regions.
Projected change spatial patterns of precipitation intensity and dry days
Based on 9 GCMs
SRES A1B scenario
Changes in spatial pattern of
―precipitation intensity
―dry days Annual mean changes for 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999
Stippling: at least 5 out of 9 models concur denoting that
change is significant
Precipitation intensity Dry days
Projected changes by region
Africa:
• Water scarcity conditions in northern and southern Africa
• More precipitation in Eastern and western Africa
• Nile Delta expected to be impacted by rising sea levels.
Asia:
• Reduce precipitation in the headwaters of the Euphrates and
Tigris
• Winter precipitation to decrease over the Indian
subcontinent, and monsoon rain events to intensify
• Maximum and minimum monthly flows of Mekong expected
to increase and decrease, respectively
• Decline of glaciers is expected to continue reducing water
supplies to large populations.
Projected changes by region -2-
Australia and New Zealand:
• Runoff in the Darling Basin expected to decline
• Drought frequency to increase in the eastern Australia
Europe:
• Mean annual precipitation to increase in Northern
Europe and decrease further south
• Mediterranean and some parts of central and Eastern
Europe to be more prone to droughts
• Flood risk expected to increase in Eastern and Northern
Europe and the Atlantic coast.
Projected changes by region -3-
Latin America:
• Number of wet days expected to increase over parts of
south-eastern South America and central Amazonia
• Extreme dry seasons to become more frequent in
Central America
• Glaciers are expected to continue the observed
declining trend.
North America:
• Climate change to constrain already over-allocated
water resources, especially in the semi-arid western USA
• Water levels to drop in the Great Lakes
• Shrinkage of glaciers to continue.
Major water resources systems and sectors to be impacted by
climate change Systems and sectors connected to human
development and environment: •Urban infrastructure: water supply and sanitation,
urban drainage and solids
•Water related natural disasters: floods, droughts,
landslide and avalanche
•Rural development: agriculture, food security,
livelihoods and environment
•Energy: demand and production (hydropower)
•Transportation: navigation
•Health: Human and animals
•Environment: system sustainability in wetlands,
water quality, forest burn, etc.
Impacts of CC on food production
Biophysical Socio-economic
Physiological effects on crops,
pasture, forests, livestock (quantity,
quality)
Changes in land, soil, water
resources (quantity, quality)
Increased weed and pest
challenges
Shifts in spatial and temporal
distribution of impacts
Sea level rise, changes to ocean
salinity and acidity
Sea temperature rise causing fish to
inhabit different ranges.
Decline in yields and production
Reduced marginal GDP from
agriculture
Fluctuations in world market
prices
Changes in geographical
distribution of trade regimes
Increased number of people at
risk of hunger and food
insecurity
Migration and civil unrest.
Agriculture
• Possible positive impacts because of increased CO2
concentrations and length of growing season
• Strongly dependent on water (amount and timing):– Rain-fed agriculture: precipitation– Irrigated agriculture: water supply
• Examples:– Warly snowmelt > water shortage in summer– Insufficient treated wastewater used for irrigation > water-born
diseases– Too much precipitation: direct damage to crops, soil erosion– Too little precipitation: direct damage to crops
• Strong regional and local differences: those least able to cope (smallholder farmers in marginal areas) will be affected hardest.
Fisheries
• Increased stress on fish populations:– Higher temperatures > less oxygen available
– Increased oxygen demand
– Deteriorated water quality
– Reduced flows
• Other human impacts probably greater:– Overfishing
– Flood mitigation
– Water abstractions
• Lake Tanganyika: reduced primary productivity due to decreased depth of thermocline.
Impacts of CC on water supply
• Further reduction of water for drinking and hygiene
• Lowering efficiency of sewerage systems > more micro-organisms in raw water supply
• Increased concentration of pollutants (less dilution)
• More overflows in sewerage systems with increased precipitation > spread of waterborne diseases
• Increased salinity water resources.
Impacts of CC on health
Mediating process Health outcome
Direct effects
Change in the frequency or intensity of
extreme weather events (e.g. storms,
hurricanes, cyclones)
Deaths, injuries, psychological
disorders; damage to public health
infrastructure
Indirect effects
Changed local ecology of water borne
and food borne infective agents
Changed incidence of diarrhoeal and
other infectious diseases
Changed food productivity through
changes in climate and associated
pests and diseases
Malnutrition and hunger
Sea level rise with population
displacement and damage to
infrastructure
Increased risk of infectious diseases
and psychological disorders
Social, economic and demographic
dislocation through effects on
economy, infrastructure and resource
supply.
Wide range of public health
consequences: mental health and
nutritional impairment, infectious
diseases, civil strife.
Impacts of CC on energy sector
• Temperature increase leading to increased energy demand and less availability of cooling water
• Energy system highly dependent on hydropower, i.e. on water availability
• Periods of low flow can create conflicts with other users.
Impacts of CC on transportation
• Water links with transportation
– Use of drainage systems for navigation
– Drainage interface with the design of transportation infrastructure networks
• Implications of climate change
– Reduction in the flow quantity or its distribution over the year shall result in reduced river levels
• Big boats cannot be used thus more boats are required for the same loads, increasing cost, energy use and emissions
– Increase in the rainfall intensity can severely damage the transportation infrastructure due to
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate
Change
IMPACT ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES
CCIAV assessment approaches (Frameworks)
• Impact assessment
• Adaptation assessment
• Vulnerability assessment
• Integrated assessment
• Risk management.
CCIAV: Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Characteristics of CCIAV assessment approaches*
Source: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
General Impact Assessment Approach
C lim ate change
scenarios
B iophysical im pacts
Socioeconom ic im pacts
A utonom ous
adaptationIntegration
Vulnerability
Purposeful adaptations
B aseline Scenarios
• Population
• G N P
• Technology
• Institutions
• Environm ent
The 7-step assessment framework of IPCC
1. Define problem
2. Select method
3. Test method/sensitivity
4. Select scenarios
5. Assess biophysical/socio-economic impacts
6. Assess autonomous adjustments
7. Evaluate adaptation strategies.
Three types of climate change scenarios
– Scenarios based on outputs from GCMs
– Synthetic scenarios
– Analogue scenarios.
General Circulation Models (GCMs)
• Computer applications designed to simulate the Earth’s climate system for the purpose of projecting potential climate scenarios
• Range in complexity from simple energy balance models to 3D General Circulation Models (GCM)
• The state-of-the-art in climate modeling is represented by the Atmosphere-Ocean GCM (AOGCM).
Types of GCM runs
• Equilibrium:
– Both current and future climates are assumed to be in state of equilibrium
– Simulations are executed assuming doubling or quadrupling of GHGs concentrations
– Low computation cost, yet unrealistic.
• Transient:
– Future climate is simulated assuming a steady increase in CO2
– Costly to run and needs a warming period to avoid underestimating the earlier stage after present.
Advantages/disadvantages of using GCM
to generate climate scenarios• Advantages:
– Produces globally consistent estimates of larger number of key climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, pressure, wind, humidity, solar radiation) for projected changes in GHGs based on scientifically credible approach
• Disadvantages:
– Simulations of current regional climate often inaccurate
– Geographic and temporal scale not fine enough for many impact assessments
– May not represent the full range of potential climate changes in a region.
Dynamic downscaling
Dynamic
downscaling is
done by nesting
a fine-scale
climate model in
a coarse-scale
model
Synthetic scenarios
• Based on combined incremental changes in meteorological
variables such as (temperature, precipitation)
• Can be based on synthetic records created from combining baseline
data with temperature changes, e.g. +2oC, and precipitation
changes, e.g. 10%
• Changes in meteorological variables are assumed to be annually
uniform; few studies introduced temporal and spatial variability
into synthetic scenarios.
Advantages/disadvantages of synthetic scenarios
• Advantages:
– Inexpensive, easy to apply and comprehensible by policy makers and stakeholders
– Represent wide spectrum of potential climate changes
– Identify sensitivity of given sectors to changes in specific meteorological variables.
• Disadvantages
– Assumption of uniform change of meteorological variables over large areas may produce scenarios that are not physically possible.
– May not be consistent with estimates of changes in average global climate
– Synthetic meteorological variables may not be internally consistent with each other, e.g. increased precipitation is expected to be associated with increased clouds and humidity.
Analogue scenarios
• Temporal analogue scenarios based on using past warm climates as
scenarios of future climate
• Spatial analogue scenarios based on using contemporary climates in
other locations as scenarios of future climate in study areas
IPCC has made recommendation against using the analogue scenarios
since temporal analogues of global warming were not caused by
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and that no valid basis
exists that spatial analogues are likely to be similar to those in the
future.
Water resources and climate change
• Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources and identification of adaptation strategies requires consideration of both its biophysical and socioeconomic aspects.
• Integrated water resources management (IWRM) provides an ideal platform to carry out these tasks.
incorporates natural and human-made
components
Source: UNFCCC Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.
Modeling of water resources systems
• Two general types: optimization and simulation models
• Simulation models are suitable for scenario-based climate impact
assessment studies.
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Adaptation in Water Management
Goal and objectives of the session
Goal
Consider how adaptation to climate change can be incorporated in water resources management at all levels.
Learning objectives
Understand the water resources management instruments available to address climate change manifestations.
Strategize the use of different policies and instruments.
Promote adaptation at the appropriate level.
Outline presentation
How can IWRM help?
Adaptation at different levels
Climate change in IWRM planning
Within river basin management
Adaptation at appropriate level.
Introduction
IWRM is to ensure:
• Sufficient access to the resource
• Availability for productive use
• Environmental functions of water
What do we need
to do in water
management to
address climate
change issues?
How can IWRM help?
Climate change will have big impact on water resources:
IWRM provides a policy and decision-making framework for water resource management actions.
IWRM provides the planning framework for water.
An IWRM approach provides a system for stakeholder consultation and interaction.
How can IWRM help?
Improving the way we use and manage water today will make it easier to address the challenges of tomorrow
Adaptation through ‘hard (infrastructure) and ‘soft’ (management, people, environment) measures.
The three main challenges are:Establishing dynamic organizations able to respond strategically and effectively to changing circumstances are neededMaking decisions based on forecasts rather than historical data, and on managing uncertaintySecuring funding.
101
Why is it important to address climate change manifestations in water management?
Impacts of climate change on freshwater systems The number of people in severely stressed river basins is
projected to increase significantly Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the
impact of climate change on freshwater Higher water temperatures, increased precipitation intensity
and longer periods of low flows lead to more pollution and impacts on ecosystems, human health and water system reliability and operating costs
Climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure and water management practices
Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed.
(Source: IPCC, 2007)
102
Possible management measures
In a situation of water stress: Water pricing Seasonal water rationing during times of shortage Adapt industrial and agricultural production to reduce water
wastage Increase capture and storage of surface run-off Reuse or recycle waste water after treatment Desalination of salty or brackish water (costly) Better use of groundwater resources (risk: siltation) Rainwater harvesting.
Possible management measures
In a situation of water quality risks:
Improvements to drainage systems
Upgrading or standardizing of water treatment
Better monitoring
Special measures during high precipitation seasons.
What kind of special
measures?
104
Adaptation at different levels
Transboundary level- Treaties and agreements
National enabling environment- Water laws and institutions
National planning- IWRM plans, policies and strategies
Basin water management- Functions of water management.
Adaptation at transboundary level
• International water agreements may be impacted by CC
Review agreements.
Include flexibility to respond to CC at a future time.
Include actions considered relevant now, such as strengthened cooperation on water management.
Improving the enabling environment
• Water laws:
Do they support the integrated (IWRM) approach?
Do they allow flexibility of action for possible CC impacts?
• Reallocation of water in case of reduced resources
• Environmental protection
• Pollution management.
Improving the enabling environment -2-
• Institutions: Climate change affects all sectors.
Are the water management institutions based on stakeholder collaboration?
Is there a framework to enable collective planning and decision making on climate and water? The sooner this starts the better.
Climate change in IWRM planningWhen initiating the planning
process, climate change
impacts need to be
integrated
In the vision and policy
development phase
adaptation to climate
change is an additional
element, not a replacement
of IWRM goals
In situation analysis climate
information (predictions)
and impact analysis to be
incorporatedAn anticipatory,
precautionary principle
based approach as the basis
of strategies for IWRMConsider the local
authorities and river basin
organisations roles in
adaptation strategies in a
plan
Legal frameworks,
economics and health, and
other variable conditional
elements that have been
analysed form the corner
stone for implementation
In evaluation results have to
be measured against
indicators considering
adaptation measures
proposed in the plan
Throughout the cycle
continuous consultation with
stakeholders
109
Adaptation at river basin level
Typical functions of water resources management are:•Water allocation•Pollution control•Monitoring•Basin planning•Economic and financial management•Information management •Organization of stakeholder participation•Flood and drought management.
110
Match IWRM functions with measures and effects
Possible adaptation
measures
IWRM function Anticipated effect
Water pricing, cost
recovery, investment
Economic/financial
management
Reduced per capita
consumption
Improved efficiency
Seasonal water rationing,
re-allocation, managing
water use
Water allocation
Pollution control
Availability and access
improved
Uninterrupted flow
Purification function secured
Flood and drought risk
mapping,
infrastructure, scenario
development
Basin planning Reduced impact of extreme
events
Increase capture and
storage of surface
runoff.
Basin planning Improved availability
Reduced polluters in the
system. 111
Match IRWM functions with measures and effects
Possible adaptation
measures
IWRM function Anticipated effect
Reuse and recycle, better
regulation, pressure for
improved sanitation
Pollution control
Water allocation
Basin planning
Improved availability
Reduced groundwater pollution
Groundwater usage Water allocation
Basin planning
Improved availability
Rainwater harvesting,
warning systems
Water allocation
Stakeholder
participation
Improved availability
Reduced drainage damage
Improving drainage systems
and water treatment
Pollution control
Basin planning
Reduced pollution
Improved availability and
recovery
Better monitoring. Information
management
Monitoring.
Improved action responding to
real needs.
Adaptation means action
How do we mobilize for action?
The right message for decision makers
The right message for communities
Focus on what we can do now.
Mobilising stakeholders …
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Think about it
What conditions make CC adaptation possible now where I live ?
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