chapter 11 where do we go from here?. copyright © 2003, addison-wesley possible futures and...

Chapter 11

Where Do We GoFrom Here?

Copyright © 2003, Addison-Wesley

Possible Futures and Feasibility analysis. Identify possible future scenarios Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis

Technical feasibility Does the necessary technology exist? Is the necessary technology likely to exist in time?

Economic feasibility Does the outcome promise a reasonable return?

Political feasibility Can the task be done in the context of the existing or expected social and political environment?

Scenario not feasible if any answer is no


Wild Cards

Unanticipated technological changes Can make current scenarios of the

future irrelevant


Figure 11.2 Tiered classes Internet services.

Is it likely that such a system for “classes of service” will become the norm?


Possible Futures

1. Tiered services will fade away2. Tiered services will be successful

but no obvious standard will emerge

3. Tiered services will become the new standard

Example: Consider the third possible future


Technical Feasibility

There is no technical reason why tiered services cannot emerge in the “foreseeable” future

Tiered Internet services are technically feasible


Economic Feasibility

Model exists Television

Broadcast Basic cable Premium cable Pay-per-view

Tiered services are economically feasible


Political Feasibility

Tiered services will change the Internet Preferential treatment for some The “information should be free” credo

Winners Service providers – fees Higher-tier users – quality and speed

Losers Serious, independent Web surfers Online advertisers The information have-nots


Web Services

Intermediary-supplied e-utilities Allow incompatible applications to interact Similar to ASP services Software building blocks

Examples Credit card approval Currency conversion Word to PDF Airline to car rental links


Figure 11.7 Think of a Web service as a remote subroutine.

Currencyconversion

Web service

Acme'saccounts payableWeb application

Accountspayabledatabase

Europeansupplier's

billingWeb application

Invoice

E

$Record


Web Services: Possible Futures

Web services are mostly hype They will fade away Custom solution better option

Web services will be successful but no dominant standard will emerge Trading partners with incompatible services

Web services will be successful and a dominant standard will emerge Best outcome for supply chain integration


Technical Feasibility

Web services are technically feasible Intermediary XML applications common

Question: Will a standard emerge? Islands, continents, planets of

automation Historically, a few firms will dominate Lock-in attempts will abound


Economic Feasibility

Web services look promising CIO article – $15.5 billion by 2005

Expect fierce competition Risk – vaporware


Political Feasibility

Winners if a single standard emerges The vendor who owns the standard

Microsoft .NET Sun Microsystems J2EE IBM Tivoli software portfolio

Risk – monopoly, collusion Cautions and concerns

Excessive hype Publicly available services diminish

competitive advantage


The Future of Web Services

Consider the firms pushing Web services IBM, Microsoft, Sun their track records are good They have deep pockets Their long-term success depends on customer

lock-in Accelerating pace of change

Web services can cut response time Web services can cut development cost

Multiple “standards” most likely outcome Incompatibilities with trading partners will

continue to be a problem


Technology

Wireless communications Becoming ubiquitous Calling areas expanding Trend toward fixed monthly fee

Short-range wireless also exploding Bluetooth Wi-Fi

Cautions Exposure to radiation? Being “always on”


Business

Value chain/supply chain integration Limit – frictionless e-commerce Will lead to intense competition Could lead to consolidation

Physical security improvements Disperse potential targets Smaller offices in smaller towns Telecommuting Parallel to Interstate highway system

Real-time employee monitoring


Education

Pace of change accelerating Need for continuous retraining Commencement marks a beginning

Education infrastructure inconvenient New educational models emerging

Evening, weekend, on site Internet based

New models will be source of growth Quality a concern – accreditation Risk – credentialing


Figure 11.5 Video game platforms are the state of the art.

Wild card Near future source

of interactive learning/training environments

Critical mass of gamers exists

May change nature of education, training or life-long learning


Figure 11.9 The total education and training pie.

Online

Traditional

Today 2020

Online

Traditional


E-Commerce and Your Future

Important to consider Ripple effects Unintended side effects Lock-in opportunities and constraints Focus on your future

Expect to see growing attention to security and privacy in EC/EB system deployments

chapter 11 where do we go from here?. copyright © 2003, addison-wesley possible futures and...

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