Changing Changing Livelihoods and Livelihoods and Risks in the Arid Risks in the Arid

LandsLandsFood Security and Nutrition Food Security and Nutrition

Working Group Meeting,Working Group Meeting,

1818thth April 2013 April 2013

PurposePurpose

Growing evidence of dynamic Growing evidence of dynamic changes in livelihood strategies in changes in livelihood strategies in the arid lands of the HoA (cf Catley the arid lands of the HoA (cf Catley et al ‘Moving up or Moving Out etc; et al ‘Moving up or Moving Out etc; “Changes in the Arid Lands” “Changes in the Arid Lands” research);research);

What does this mean regarding What does this mean regarding risk and developmental risk and developmental humanitarian response?humanitarian response?

Source: Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Proportion of population (%)

lowest second middle fourth highest

Wealth quintal

Wealth Distribution, ASAL zones in Ethiopia

Afar

Somali

Ex-Pastoralists:•Few or no livestock•Sedentarised•Dependant on aid: food assistance and social protection•>50% of population•Future prospects???

Diversified Pastoralists:•Few small ruminants•Other sources of income•Sedentarised•Highly vulnerable•about 25% of population

Pastoralists:•Traditional or commercialised•Mobile/ absent•Cashing in on increased meat demand •Highly drought resilient.•About 25% of popn.

Changes in wealth differentiation and livelihood strategies

Future = commercialization and trade, domestic + export= continued use of mobile livestock production systems

Future= “traditional” pastoralism and mobility

Future = added value on livestock products= diversification

Future = exits and protracted destitution for some = alternative livelihoods for others

Game ChangersGame Changers

Shift from rural and mobile to Shift from rural and mobile to settlements and urban/ peri-urbansettlements and urban/ peri-urban

Commercialized animal rearingCommercialized animal rearing More diversified and cash-based More diversified and cash-based

livelihood strategies, and employment livelihood strategies, and employment (formal/ informal)(formal/ informal)

Emphasis on transition and educating Emphasis on transition and educating young people into more stable and young people into more stable and lucrative livelihoods (across all groups ?)lucrative livelihoods (across all groups ?)

What does this mean for What does this mean for risk?risk?

For example in the case of For example in the case of drought…drought…

Who are the vulnerable?Who are the vulnerable? Diversified pastoralists?Diversified pastoralists? Ex-pastoralists who are very poor?Ex-pastoralists who are very poor? Commercial pastoralists?Commercial pastoralists? Children in school?Children in school? Women in small settlements?Women in small settlements?

What are they vulnerable What are they vulnerable to?to?

Still in the case of drought…Still in the case of drought… Livestock Disease?Livestock Disease? Market prices?Market prices? Availability of labour?Availability of labour? Fodder?Fodder? Water?Water? Conflict?Conflict? Being pulled out of school?Being pulled out of school?

What does this mean for What does this mean for Risk?Risk?

Despite the major ‘game changers’:Despite the major ‘game changers’: Livestock remains the predominant Livestock remains the predominant

economic activity in the arid lands;economic activity in the arid lands; Most people interact to some extent, Most people interact to some extent,

directly or indirectly with the livestock directly or indirectly with the livestock trade - expanding rangelands concept: trade - expanding rangelands concept: this is a very powerful way to spread risk;this is a very powerful way to spread risk;

Increasing population… fewer natural Increasing population… fewer natural resources but growing economic resources but growing economic opportunities.opportunities.

What does this mean for What does this mean for humanitarian response?humanitarian response?

Conventional Responses:Conventional Responses: Livestock off-takeLivestock off-take Livestock health (vaccination, de-worming etc)Livestock health (vaccination, de-worming etc) Humanitarian Food Assistance: in-kind food; Humanitarian Food Assistance: in-kind food;

increasingly cash transfers; conditional/ increasingly cash transfers; conditional/ unconditional;unconditional;

Water trucking (human and livestock use);Water trucking (human and livestock use); Fodder provision for livestock (unusual);Fodder provision for livestock (unusual);

Are these ‘fit for purpose’ for un-Are these ‘fit for purpose’ for un-homogenous communities in the homogenous communities in the ‘new’ livelihood and risk ‘new’ livelihood and risk environment?environment?

What does this mean for What does this mean for humanitarian response?humanitarian response?

New ways of doing business…New ways of doing business… Big Issues: Linking relief and developmentBig Issues: Linking relief and development

Importance of understanding the context in terms of Importance of understanding the context in terms of changing livelihood strategies and risk: changing livelihood strategies and risk: action action researchresearch;;

Importance of understanding aspirations for the Importance of understanding aspirations for the future, and especially transiting from traditional future, and especially transiting from traditional livelihoods: can we provide a ‘soft landing’?livelihoods: can we provide a ‘soft landing’?

Importance of keeping kids in schoolImportance of keeping kids in school Gender: with changing livelihood strategies, what Gender: with changing livelihood strategies, what

new roles for both women and men? What are the new roles for both women and men? What are the opportunities?opportunities?

Social Networks with people living in different Social Networks with people living in different locations doing different things: how to help to locations doing different things: how to help to spread the risk?spread the risk?

What does this mean for What does this mean for humanitarian response?humanitarian response?

No Regrets ApproachNo Regrets Approach Income and employmentIncome and employment Opportunities around expanding/ Opportunities around expanding/

contracting social protection safety nets contracting social protection safety nets (risk financing model)?(risk financing model)?

Surge model for nutrition (and more?)Surge model for nutrition (and more?) Livestock/ crop insurance.Livestock/ crop insurance. MORE (Over to you!)MORE (Over to you!)

Times they are a-changin’:Times they are a-changin’:

Can We Keep Up?Can We Keep Up?

What does this mean for humanitarian What does this mean for humanitarian response?response?

1.1. Over-arching Question: Livelihoods are changing rapidly in the Arid Over-arching Question: Livelihoods are changing rapidly in the Arid Lands: Lands: What does this mean regarding risk and humanitarian What does this mean regarding risk and humanitarian response?response?

2.2.   In the 'new' livelihood and risk environment, In the 'new' livelihood and risk environment, Who is vulnerable and Who is vulnerable and to Whatto What? (reference to the slide on the different groups: ex-? (reference to the slide on the different groups: ex-pastoralists, diversified pastoralists; commercial pastoralists, kids in pastoralists, diversified pastoralists; commercial pastoralists, kids in school; women in small settlements etc + the sub-hazards like price school; women in small settlements etc + the sub-hazards like price rises, conflict etc.)rises, conflict etc.)

3.3.   What does this mean for RiskWhat does this mean for Risk? i.e. probability of the risk of death? ? i.e. probability of the risk of death? Risk of Destitution? Risk of hardship? Risk of Destitution? Risk of hardship?

4.4. Are the traditional humanitarian responses and the drought Are the traditional humanitarian responses and the drought management cycle 'fit for purpose' given all this change?management cycle 'fit for purpose' given all this change?

5.5.   What are the opportunities for 'doing business differently'? What are the opportunities for 'doing business differently'? What can be done to scale? Can humanitarian and development What can be done to scale? Can humanitarian and development actors tap in and help support the existing risk-spreading actors tap in and help support the existing risk-spreading strategies (expanding rangeland concept)?strategies (expanding rangeland concept)?