changing innovation & growth paradigms in portugal, daniel ... · zero to one: notes on...
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CHANGING INNOVATION & GROWTH PARADIGMSIN PORTUGAL
DANIEL TRAÇAJANUARY 2019
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PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS “THE CHALLENGE”
2
Source: AMECO and IMF, 2010.
Value of Labour Productivity, 2000(thousands of euros per worker)
Gro
wth
ofLa
bour
Pro
duct
ivity
, 200
0-20
10(%
)
1,10%
3,77% 1,73% 1,74%
0,98% 0,98%0,69%
-0,29%-0,04%
1,88%
0,08%
2,37%
-0,09% -0,68%
-2,21%
2,44%
1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-17
Productivity (GDP/Labour) Labour (ELF)
Source: Banco de Portugal, 2019.
Productivity Convergence in the EUContribution to Growth:
Productivity And Employment
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Human
Capital
Digital Transformation
Internationalization
3
Investment
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QUALIFICATIONS AND SKILLS PORTUGAL
4
Source: Eurostat, 2019
Evolution of education levels
PISA scores
Source: OECD, 2019Source: EIB, 2019
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ADULT EDUCATION IN PORTUGAL
5
Source: OECD, 2019
A long way to go…Education attainment of adults (25-64 year-olds) in Portugal, 2016
but catching upParticipation rate (last 12 months), by type of education and training
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Challenges• Technical Skills and Skills of the Future in Higher Education
• Retraining of Adults for Digital Challenges• Funding and Institutions
6
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PORTUGAL SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON INTERNATIONALIZATION
3,04%
6,53%
3,70%
10,85%
12,03%
5,68%
3,73%
5,09%
3,86%
5,71%
2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 7
CAGR OF TOTAL G&S EX PORTS , BY COUNTRY
Portugal Ireland Czech Republic Germany EU
1,55%
5,73%5,81%
8,39%
1,81%
10,36%
2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 7
CAGR OF EX PORTS BY TYPE, I N PORTUGAL
Total de Bens Total de Serviços Viagens e Turismo
7Source: Eurostat, 2019.
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BUT PICKING UP PACE
8Source: EIB, 2019
FRIMS INVESTING ABROAD
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GLOBALIZATION TO ASIA WILL CONTINUE
Source: The World in 2050, PwC, Feb 2017
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Sources: Banco de Portugal, 201912
0.4%
0.3% 0.3%
0.3%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4%
0.4%
2481,31
1237,371451,74
1934,42
2627,97 2717,26 2792,392994,19 2945,32
3518,53
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exports to Asia1996-2016 (in millions of euros and in % of total)
Exports of G&S to Asia (% total) Exports of G&S to Asia (M€)
PORTUGAL TOO SLOW IN ASIA
10
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Challenges• Collaboration among firms
• Investment and lead time in Internationalization
• Economic Diplomacy
11
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Gro
wth
Data Availability
Computing Power
Efficient Algorithms
Years to gain 50 million users
Source: The Intelligence Revolution | The Future of work is Here, Deloitte Canada
DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY IS EXPONENTIAL
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If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change in the inside, the end is near.Jack Welch
Accenture, 2018
… AND DISRUPTIVE
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Source: INE, 2019
PORTUGAL LAGGING
14
1 533 M€(2017)
1 207 M€(2005)
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Evolution of private investment (GFCF) in ICT in Portugal (M€)
304
246
123
111
59
58
45
33
29
26
25
19
14
9
4
3
2
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Israel
USA
Sweden
Ireland
United Kingdom
Finland
France
Denmark
Norway
Germany
Netherlands
Belgium
Spain
Austria
Portugal
Italy
Russia
Turkey
Capital Stock in ICT ($) per capita
Source: State of European Tech, 2017
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Challenges• Leadership and Culture
• Investment in Intangibles
• Digital jobs
• Speed and Stakeholder Partnerships
15
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Peter ThielZero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future
Bureaucratic hierarchies move slowly, and entrenched interests shy away from risk. In the most dysfunctional organizations, signaling that work is being done becomes a better strategy for career advancement than actually doing work (if this describes your company, you should quit now).
Chief Innovation OfficerImprove!
Chief Disruption OfficerChallenge!
Disrupt or get disrupted!
LEADERSHIP and CULTURE
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AGILITY IS CULTURE “Give employees slightly more freedom and empowerment than you are comfortable with.
If you are not, you haven’t given them enough.”
Laszlo BockFormer SVP People Operations, Google
LEADERSHIP and CULTURE
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THE INVESTMENT SLUMP
18
Investment (GFCF) in Portugal
20%
Source: EIB, 2019
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LONG-TERM BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT
19Source: EIB, 2019
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ACCESS TO FINANCEType of External Finance used for Investment
20Source: EIB, 2019
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ACCESS TO FINANCEDissatisfaction with External Finance
21Base: All firms who used external finance in the last financial year (excluding don’t know/refused responses) Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with ....?
Source: EIB, 2019
13%
10%
6%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Evolution of credit to non-financial companies (% GDP)
by firm size
Source: Banco de Portugal, 2018
Large firms
Micro firmsSmall firms
Medium firms
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#1 Road to productivity
#3 Internationalizeand leverage Asia
#6 Access to Finance
#4 Foster digitalization
INNOVATE FOR GROWTH
#8 Agile, Leadership
#2 Continue to build up skills
#7 Context Challenges rule
#5 Convergenceof Stakeholders
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CHANGING INNOVATION & GROWTH PARADIGMSIN PORTUGAL
DANIEL TRAÇAJANUARY 2019