changes this quarter out in - su145.infusionsoft.com
TRANSCRIPT
WELCOME TO YOUR AUTUMN 2021 PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT REVIEW - CAUTIOUS
As usual, your quarterly report is simply designed to give you a brief overview of the changes
we’re proposing to make to your portfolio this quarter. For most of our investors, this
information is sufficient, but if you’re a details person, our research notes including analysis,
graphs and charts are also available. Even more detail can be found on the Individual
factsheets for each fund which can be accessed in the Key Investor Information Documents
section at www.pen-life-portfolios.co.uk.
As you know, your portfolio has a risk rated asset allocation designed to diversify your
portfolio and meet the portfolio’s long term objectives. Asset allocation just means the
proportion of the portfolio invested into each of the different asset classes – equities, fixed
interest, property etc. Each asset allocation ‘slot’ is populated with top performing funds in
that class or region, based on the Investment Committee’s strict selection criteria. We believe
asset allocation is the key determinant of long term investment returns, and that this model
offers the best prospects for medium to long term growth with acceptable volatility.
CHANGES THIS QUARTER
Out In
NO CHANGES NO CHANGES
General Investment Committee Overview
The global pandemic prompted shutdown of suppliers, lower global demand and reduced
industrial activity. Since restrictions have lifted, demand has increased and the world is
struggling to keep pace and bounce back.
In the last few months, shortages have dominated headlines – semi-conductor chips are still
interfering with car production – which has resulted in the value of second-hand cars
skyrocketing. The boss of Daimler has been reported to say that this particular shortage
could last throughout 2022 continue “into 2023”.
Also supply chain issues meant we all witnessed the crazy scenes at our petrol pumps
(‘fueled’ by media - pardon the pun!). September saw the oil price rise above $80 for the
first time in three years and there was an apparent knock on effect for world stock markets
– with the majority falling around the same time.
Whilst we have witnessed issues with the supply chain issues first hand, it is by no means
just a problem for the UK (where Brexit has helped with the havoc to our lorry drivers).
China’s power shortages have affected production, the US and Germany are also having
issues with ‘truck’ drivers and have backlogs at their ports, border controls and mobility
restrictions and lack of labour have also contributed to bottlenecks in the supply chain.
As you may have picked up on page 1 of this report, we are not making any changes to our
portfolios this quarter as the Investment Committee agree that the funds we hold currently
pass through all of our research filters. This time, we have written some topical stuff for you
to read about.
UK
Aside from the headlines around shortages – there was some good news for the UK.
September saw reports that the UK grew at the fastest rate of any of the G20 countries in
quarter 2. In fact – the 4.8% growth reported for April – June was revised upwards to 5.5%.
Fitch (the ratings agency) has predicted UK growth at 6.6% this year, which is well ahead of
the forecast laid out by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
We have also seen the end of the furlough scheme. The BBC reported that there were still 1
million workers on the scheme as it came to an end. That said, there are still over 1 million
job vacancies reported to be available in September and there are employers (such as
Amazon) offering inducements for temporary staff to join during the festive period.
The Bank of England are saying that we are not expecting interest rate rises this year, as the
cost of rises would also push up the cost of servicing the government’s debt.
When we make no changes in our portfolios, we take comfort in showing you a graph of our
current fund selection in the asset class (MI Chelverton UK Equity Growth) vs asset class
benchmarks:
EUROPE
Whilst Ryan Air and Whizz Air both reported more bodies in the skies than expected over
Europe, overall passenger number are down by 44% for the twelve months up to August,
illustrating the long shadow still being cast by the pandemic.
Top news though in Germany is the election. Angela Merkel (chancellor for 16 years)
announced that she would not be seeking another term as Chancellor. The federal election
took place on the 26th September and after a fragmented result, is now being organised into
a ‘traffic light’ coalition. At the time of writing, each of the parties hashed out their
differences and have come up with a broad outline of how to proceed….with finer details
yet to come…
Again – here is a graph of our current funds held in this sector for your enjoyment! (Premier
Miton European Opportunities and Baillie Gifford European B)
NORTH AMERICA
The US glass has been half empty of late, with its worries over inflation (similar to every
other major economy) and disappointing news on employment leading to a cut in growth
forecasts from Morgan Stanley (2.9% from 6.5%) and Goldman Sachs (3.5% from 5.5%).
The good news though was that the manufacturing sector strengthened largely down to an increase in orders and the US federal reserve recently stated that “currently high levels of inflation remain transitory”. In the accompanying press conference Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, gave a clear indication that the central bank would start to reduce its economic stimulus measures later this year.
Of course, none of the above mattered to our friends at Amazon, who announced that they needed to recruit another 55,000 people to add to the 1.3 million it already employs (that’s roughly the population of Estonia!) Below is a graph of the Baillie Gifford American fund we hold in this space vs benchmarks.
ABSOLUTE RETURNS We currently hold a Brooks MacDonald Defensive Capital fund in this space which has been in our portfolios since Winter 2016. We have recently checked Charges on the funds we hold and have determined that we can switch our existing holding into different share class, which has a lower ongoing charge 0.55% from 0.75%). Whilst we are not switching funds as such for this asset allocation, we are switching to a lower cost version of the fund we already hold. The Committee’s Conclusion So how long are the shortages going to last? What about Christmas? Our advice is to maybe
not leave it until Christmas eve this year if you can possibly help it…but promise us you
won’t panic buy – that won’t help!
Remember the shortages following the Ever Given (the giant container ship that blocked the
Suez Canal for six days)….well Japan have just shared the news of their fully autonomous
ship which will be remote controlled through Japan’s shipping lanes is going on a maiden
voyage (trial run!) of 236 miles in February 2022! A huge container ship….remote
control…sensors and AI – what could possibly go wrong? Let’s watch this space shall we.
For a bit of fun, lets talk about robots. They seem to be all the rage at the
moment…Amazon have just launched Astro (Alexa on wheels). It appears to be an ipad on
wheels which will follow you around the house if you ask it to (might dance with you too). It
also has a telescopic camera on it so you can check out if you have turned off your oven and
it takes itself off to recharge. The only thing that sells it slightly is a cup holder which will
deliver a drink if you ask it to….not sure how it can extract the drink from the fridge
though?! Also, It can’t manage the stairs…so you may want to consider one for each floor of
your house….!?!?!
Finally some robotics scientists are working on Robot Soccer World Cup (AKA the RoboCup)
with the robots using AI to make decisions to pass or shoot….not sure what this will bring to
the party, but maybe people have a had a little too much time on their hands in lockdown?
Again, no changes this quarter because our research showed that the funds we are currently
invested in are still at the top of the tree. We still want to rebalance your portfolio to ensure
that it remains in line with your recommended asset allocation. Please don’t forget to press
the button in your email to accept the rebalance (or return your letter).
IMPORTANT NOTES: Out In
NONE NONE
OLD PENLIFE PORTFOLIO CHARGE 0.68 %
NEW PENLIFE PORTFOLIO CHARGE
0.66 %
WE NEED YOUR EXPRESS AUTHORITY TO SWITCH FUNDS (IF APPLICABLE) AND REBALANCE
BACK TO THE ORIGINAL ASSET ALLOCATION AS DESCRIBED IN THIS SUMMARY. PLEASE
ACCEPT THE CHANGES BY CLICKING ON THE ACCEPT BUTTON IN YOUR EMAIL OR
RETURNING YOUR ACCEPTANCE LETTER.
WITHDRAWALS FROM PORTFOLIOS DURING THE REBALANCE PERIOD ARE RESTRICTED
AND CAN LEAD TO LENGTHY DELAYS. PLEASE ADVISE US OF ANY WITHDRAWAL OR
ENCASHMENT REQUESTS BEFORE ACCEPTING THE CHANGES.
THIS INVESTMENT ADVICE IS BASED ON THE SUITABILITY OF YOUR ORIGINAL
RECOMMENDATION AND YOU SHOULD REFER BACK TO YOUR LASTEST SUITABILITY
REPORT FROM US WHICH CONFIRMS HOW OUR ADVICE MEETS YOUR OBJECTIVES. IF
THERE HAVE BEEN ANY CHANGES TO CIRCUMSTANCES, PLEASE CONTACT US
IMMEDIATELY.
TAX IMPLICATIONS: IF YOUR CURRENT INVESTMENTS ARE HELD IN A PENSION, ISA OR
OFFSHORE BOND, THERE SHOULD BE NO TAX IMPLICATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH YOUR
REBALANCE OR FUND SWITCHES. IF YOU HAVE A GENERAL INVESTMENT ACCOUNT, THERE
COULD BE TAX IMPLICATIONS. YOU MUST LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE MADE ANY
DISPOSALS WHICH MAY HAVE USED ANY OF YOUR PERSONAL CAPITAL GAINS TAX
ALLOWANCE IN THE CURRENT TAX YEAR.
PENLIFE AND YOUR WRAP PROVIDER WILL NOT CHARGE ANY ADDITIONAL FEES FOR YOUR
REBALANCE OR FUND SWITCHES.
Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021
27 October 2021
Portfolio Summary
Instrument Name Currency 6m 1y 3y 5y Hist. Yield
PortfolioExpense
FE fundinfo RiskScore
Portfolio Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021 GBP 3.19 14.77 47.38 - 2.10 0.75
Benchmark UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares - Nov 90 GBP 1.27 6.10 14.53 17.14 - -Performance figures to last price datePortfolio Expense - The portfolio expense is calculated using the weighted value of the Ongoing Costs Ex Ante of the portfolio constituents. Where the Ongoing Costs Ex Ante is not available the OCF is used, and where this is not available the TER is used.Please note: Historic yield figures will only be provided for funds with at least 12 months of performance history.
Portfolio Composition 1 Year 3 Years
Fund Manager Name Original% Holding
Hist. Yield Perf. Est.
Contrb Qtl Perf. Est.Contrb Qtl
FEfundinfoCrownRating
Brooks Macdonald Asset Managem Brooks Macdonald Defensive Capital C Acc - Dec 06 11.00 2.09 17.03 1.87 21.24 2.34
Legal & General UT Mgr Ltd Multi-Asset Target Return I Acc - Mar 15 11.00 2.31 6.68 0.73 11.99 1.32
AXA IM UK Framlington Managed Income Z Gross Acc - Jun 11 10.00 4.72 13.44 1.34 1 17.81 1.78 1
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Strategic Bond B Inc - Feb 99 10.00 3.32 3.45 0.35 2 16.20 1.62 2
Allianz Global Invtrs GmbH(UK) Strategic Bond C - May 02 7.50 1.72 -7.14 -0.54 4 39.48 2.96 1
M&G UK Global Convertibles Inst Acc GBP - Jul 07 7.50 1.92 3.34 0.25 3 22.77 1.71 2
Fidelity International (FIL In Global Property W Acc - Sep 06 5.00 1.45 16.90 0.85 23.53 1.18
First Sentier Investors (UK) Global Property Securities B GBP Acc - Sep 06 5.00 1.88 26.52 1.33 2 36.33 1.82 1
M&G UK Emerging Markets Bond I Acc GBP - Oct 99 5.00 4.61 -1.03 -0.05 2 11.87 0.59 2
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Positive Change B Acc - Jan 17 3.00 0.00 34.93 1.05 1 167.47 5.02 1
FSSA IM (First Sentier Investo Japan Focus B Acc GBP - Oct 15 3.00 0.00 16.19 0.49 1 80.91 2.43 1
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd** American B Acc - Jul 97 2.50 0.00 25.67 0.64 3 189.16 4.73 1
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd** European B Acc - Jul 88 2.50 0.00 23.01 0.58 3 103.38 2.58 1
JP Morgan Asset Management UK US Small Cap Growth C Acc - Jan 95 2.50 0.00 10.99 0.27 4 78.50 1.96 2
Premier Miton Investors European Opportunities B Acc GBP - Dec 15 2.50 0.02 29.59 0.74 1 107.21 2.68 1
Currency Pounds Sterling - Jan 70 2.00 - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd** Emerging Markets Growth B Acc - Mar 97 2.00 1.18 9.70 0.19 3 58.32 1.17 1
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Pacific B Acc - Mar 89 2.00 0.32 27.18 0.54 1 132.71 2.65 1
Maitland Institutional Service Chelverton UK Equity Growth B Acc - Oct 14 2.00 0.08 48.31 0.97 1 101.31 2.03 1
Octopus Investments Octopus UK Micro Cap Growth P Acc - Jul 07 2.00 0.00 37.29 0.75 4 83.94 1.68 1
Schroder UT Managers High Yield Opportunities Z Acc - Feb 00 2.00 5.28 15.19 0.30 1 20.29 0.41 1
Total Portfolio 100.00 2.10 14.77 47.38
Selected Benchmark UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares - Nov 90 6.10 14.53Performance figures to last price date, rebased inPounds Sterling, ordered by largest original holdings.Estimated contribution values are based on the percentage weightings being correct at the start of the analysed performance period.Please note: Historic yield figures will only be provided for funds with at least 12 months of performance history.** The history of this unit/share class has been extended, at FE fundinfo's discretion, to give a sense of a longer track record of the fund as a whole.
Portfolio Ratios
Fund Manager Name Volatility Alpha Beta Sharpe r2
Brooks Macdonald Asset Managem Brooks Macdonald Defensive Capital C Acc - Dec 06 11.14 -0.82 1.74 0.19 0.89
Legal & General UT Mgr Ltd Multi-Asset Target Return I Acc - Mar 15 8.17 -0.24 1.11 0.05 0.68
AXA IM UK Framlington Managed Income Z Gross Acc - Jun 11 10.27 0.02 1.51 0.21 0.79
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Strategic Bond B Inc - Feb 99 8.60 0.50 1.29 0.23 0.83
Allianz Global Invtrs GmbH(UK) Strategic Bond C - May 02 7.75 13.31 -0.15 1.14 0.01
M&G UK Global Convertibles Inst Acc GBP - Jul 07 8.68 2.73 0.99 0.34 0.48
Fidelity International (FIL In Global Property W Acc - Sep 06 13.61 -0.13 1.85 0.22 0.68
First Sentier Investors (UK) Global Property Securities B GBP Acc - Sep 06 14.77 1.87 2.07 0.40 0.72
M&G UK Emerging Markets Bond I Acc GBP - Oct 99 11.63 0.18 1.43 0.16 0.56
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Positive Change B Acc - Jan 17 20.21 23.68 2.21 1.43 0.44
FSSA IM (First Sentier Investo Japan Focus B Acc GBP - Oct 15 20.03 12.23 1.40 0.64 0.18
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd American B Acc - Jul 97 28.65 23.98 2.81 1.04 0.35
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd European B Acc - Jul 88 18.59 12.18 2.23 0.92 0.53
JP Morgan Asset Management UK US Small Cap Growth C Acc - Jan 95 24.64 4.15 3.13 0.45 0.60
Premier Miton Investors European Opportunities B Acc GBP - Dec 15 17.15 12.17 2.22 1.01 0.62
Currency Pounds Sterling - Jan 70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Emerging Markets Growth B Acc - Mar 97 18.56 3.53 2.26 0.43 0.55
Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Pacific B Acc - Mar 89 17.87 18.10 1.90 1.22 0.42
Maitland Institutional Service Chelverton UK Equity Growth B Acc - Oct 14 21.26 10.82 3.08 0.89 0.77
Octopus Investments Octopus UK Micro Cap Growth P Acc - Jul 07 19.73 9.58 2.33 0.73 0.51
Schroder UT Managers High Yield Opportunities Z Acc - Feb 00 14.67 -1.60 2.15 0.17 0.79
Total Portfolio 10.58 5.42 1.63 0.80 0.88
Selected Benchmark UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares - Nov 90 6.07 - - 0.07 -Ratio figures based on last 36 months total return performance, rebased in Pounds Sterling. Ratio figures are annualised where applicable.The benchmark for each holding is the portfolio benchmark.
Asset Allocation'
Name Original %Global Fixed Interest 30.58
Undisclosed 11.00
Property 9.77
UK Corporate Fixed Interest 7.29
Other International Equities 7.22
Money Market 4.30
North American Equities 3.92
European Equities 3.19
Asia Pacific Emerging Equities 3.17
Others 19.56
Sector Allocation'
Name Original %Undisclosed 39.00
Government Bonds 10.91
Telecom, Media & Technology 8.78
Industrials 7.50
Health Care 4.04
Money Market 3.73
Consumer Products 3.23
Residential - Property 2.58
Services 2.41
Others 17.83
Region Allocation'
Name Original %Undisclosed 22.00
International 17.67
North America 16.52
UK 14.44
Europe ex UK 10.66
Pacific Basin 4.52
Japan 4.29
Money Market 3.82
Americas 1.90
Other 4.20
Top 10 Holdings Original %
1 Undisclosed 11.00
2 Cash 2.00
3 PROLOGIS INC 0.79
4 VONOVIA SE 0.47
5 MODERNA INC 0.47
6 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTORMANUFACTURING 0.46
7 ASML HOLDING NV 0.44
8 UNITED KINGDOM GILT 1.75%09/07/2022 0.42
9 MITSUI FUDOSAN 0.40
10UNITED KINGDOM GILT 4%03/07/2022 0.32
Portfolio breakdown and holdings are based on latest published data for each constituent which may have different publication dates.Portfolio start date is required to calculate current weightings.
Portfolio Backtested vs. Benchmark over 5 years
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
Jan 17 Jun Nov Apr 18 Sep Feb 19 Jul Dec May 20 Oct Mar 21 Aug
03/01/2017 - 26/10/2021 Powered by data from FE fundinfo
A
B
A - Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021 - [63.46%]B - UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares - [17.37%]
Relative Performance of Holdings over 1 year
-10% -5% 0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Nov 20 Dec Jan 21 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
26/10/2020 - 26/10/2021 Powered by data from FE fundinfo
A
BCDEFGHIJ
A - Maitland Institutional Service Chelverton UK Equ.. - [48.31%]B - Octopus Investments Octopus UK Micro Cap Growth .. - [37.29%]C - Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Positive Change B Acc - [34.93%]D - Premier Miton Investors European Opportunities B.. - [29.59%]E - Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd Pacific B Acc - [27.18%]F - First Sentier Investors (UK) Global Property Sec.. - [26.52%]G - Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd American B Acc - [25.67%]H - Baillie Gifford & Co Ltd European B Acc - [23.01%]I - Brooks Macdonald Asset Managem Brooks Macdonald .. - [17.03%]J - Fidelity International (FIL In Global Property W.. - [16.90%]
Short Term Monthly Discrete Performance over 1 year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oct 20 Nov Dec Jan 21 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Powered by data from FE fundinfo
Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares
Long Term Yearly Discrete Performance over 5 years
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20
Powered by data from FE fundinfo
Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares
Rolling 6 months Volatility vs. Benchmark over 1 year
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Nov 20 Dec Jan 21 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
02/11/2020 - 30/09/2021 Powered by data from FE fundinfo
A
B
A - Pen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021B - UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares
Weekly Omega chart over 1 year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Powered by data from FE fundinfoWeekly Return
Omega
KeyPen-Life - Cautious Autumn 2021UT Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares
Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct but it neither warrants,represents nor guarantees the contents of the information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein.
FE fundinfo (UK) Limited Registration number: 2405213. Registered office: 3rd Floor, Hollywood House, Church Street East, Woking, GU21 6HJ. Telephone 01483 783 900Website:www.financialexpress.net