changes in presidential nomination rules
DESCRIPTION
*. Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules. Trend from Caucuses to Primaries *. The Use of Binding Primaries *. *. Contribution Limits Since 1974. *. Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle. *. Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus” 1900-1996. *. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules
The Caucus-Convention System
The Direct Primary SystemRank and file voters 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
Candidates
A: 10%
B: 40%
C: 50%
Trend from Caucuses to Primaries 1912-1996
Election Year
1992
1984
1976
1968
1960
1952
1944
1936
1928
1920
1912
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Pct Dem Delegates
Selected by Primary
Pct Rep Delegates
Selected by Primary
Pre-Reform Era MeanDemocrats = 40.2%Republicans = 43.4%
Post-Reform Era MeanDemocrats = 76%Republicans = 75%
Presidential Election Year
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
Num
ber
of S
tate
s w
ith B
indi
ng P
rimar
y50
40
30
20
10
0
Pre-Reform Era
Post-Reform Era
The Use of Binding Primaries
Contribution Limits Since 1974
Note: “NL” indicates no limit; “NA” indicates not applicable. Limits on contributions to national party committees and other committees and on total contributions are per calendar year. Contribution limits have been unchanged since the passage of FECA ame
NL$1,000
per election $20,000 $5,000
Recipient
NA NA
Republican or DemocraticSenatorial CampaignCommittee,e or the NationalParty Committee, or a combination of both
$17,500 to Senatecandidate per
calendar year inwhich candidateseeks election
$5,000 NL
$5,000 $25,000
$5,000 NLMulticandidatecommitteec
$5,000per election
$20,000
NLParty committee$1,000–5,000per electiond
$15,000
$1,000
NA
Any other committeeor groupf
Table 2-1 Contribution Limits Under Federal Election Commission Act
Source
Candidate or his/herauthorized committee
National party
committeeaAny othercommittee
Totalcontributions
Individual
Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle1992-2000
Election Year
20001998199619941992
Milli
ons
of C
urre
nt D
olla
rs
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dem. Soft $ Raised
Rep. Soft $ Raised
YEAR
1996
1988
1980
1972
1964
1956
1948
1940
1932
1924
1916
1908
1900
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
WinningElectoral
CollegePercentage
WinningPopular
VotePercentage
Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus”
1900-1996
Models of Boundaries on Presidential Power
Prerogative Model(Lincoln)
StewardshipModel
(T. Roosevelt)
RestrictedModel(Taft)
Hypothetical Space Encompassing All Possible Presidential Powers
The Presidency’s Central Legislative Clearanceand Budget-Making Power
Government Agencies
CongressBureau of the Budget(BOB)*
Requests for Authority
Requests for Money
ThePresidency
ApprovedAgenda
ExecutiveBudget
Gov’tAgencies
Pre-1921Post-1921
* in 1970, BOB was reorganized and renamedthe Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
Growth in the E.O.P
YEAR
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
1946
1943
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
WHO
BOB/OMB
TOTAL
Data extended: 1800 employedin EOP in2013
Composition of the EOP
President
WhiteHouseOffice
Office ofManagementand Budget
NationalSecurityCouncil
Office of the Vice President
Council ofEconomicAdvisers
Office ofPolicy
Development
Office ofScience andTechnology
Policy
Council onEnvironmental
Quality
Office onNational DrugControl Policy
Office of theU.S. Trade
Representative
Office ofAdministration
Presidential Management Styles
SPOKES OF THE WHEEL
President
PYRAMID
President
Chief of Staff
Staff
Staff
Staff
Staff
Staff Staff
Staff Staff
StaffStaff
Staff
SPLIT TICKET VOTING
1900-1996
Election Year
1996
1988
1980
1972
1964
1956
1948
1940
1932
1924
1916
1908
1900
Per
cent
of S
plit
Dis
tric
ts50
40
30
20
10
0
Pre-World War IIMean = 11%
1948-1964Mean = 26%
Era ofDividedGovernmentMean = 33%
Divided Government in the 20th Century
Events/Eras
Post-1968Post-WWIIPre-WWII
Mean
1.00
.80
.60
.40
.20
0.00
Unified
Government
Divided
Government
.24.64.87
.76
.36
.13
The Disappearing Middle
CONGRESS
103101999795939189878583
Per
cent
of M
embe
rshi
p C
ross
-Pre
ssur
ed.4
.3
.2
.1
0.0
Pre-ReaganMean: 21.2%
Post-ReaganMean: 9.7%
19961953
Inside vs. Outside Strategy
President PresidentCongress Congress
Public Public(in general or
special interests)
The Exchange Model The ‘Going Public’ Model
Court’s Findings on McCain-Feingold (BCRA)
Topic What BCRA (McCain/Feingold) does
Supreme Court decision
National party soft money Prohibits national parties from raising or spending soft money
Prohibition upheld
State and local party "federal election activities"
Requires state & local parties to pay for federal election activities entirely with hard money or a mix of hard money and "Levin funds."
Requirement upheld
Soft money fundraising by federal candidates and officeholders
Prohibits federal candidates and officeholders from raising or spending soft money
Prohibition upheld
“Sham” issue ads; Prohibitions Prohibits corporations and labor unions from using soft money to pay for "electioneering communications" -- broadcast ads that mention a federal candidate or officeholder within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election and are targeted to that person's constituents
Prohibition upheld
Sham issue ads; Disclosure Requires disclosure of "electioneering communications" (defined above) in excess of $10,000 per year
Disclosure requirement upheld
Contribution limits Increases the dollar limits on contributions from individuals to candidates and political parties
Increased limits upheld
Independent & coordinated expenditures by political parties
Requires a political party spending money in a general election campaign to choose between making coordinated expenditures on behalf of its candidate, OR independent expenditures on behalf of its candidate, but not both
"Choice of expenditure" rule declared unconstitutional
Return
Granted
T. Roosevelt, Wilson
Lincoln
W. Taft
Power and PresidentsAll the power that might possibly be
granted to a president
Return
Small State “Advantage” in the Electoral College
Wyoming: Population = 500,000
•3 Electoral College votes
•Each EC vote represents
167,000 people.
California: Population = 34,000,000
•55 Electoral College votes
•Each EC vote represents
618,000 people.
WYOMING’S ADVANTAGE: Each Wyoming resident “counts” almost 4x as much in the Electoral College.
Return
President as Chief. . .
(or Head) of State:
•Ceremonial Activities
•First pitch
•Awards ceremonies
•Honoring teams
President as Chief. . .
Executive:
•“Head” of bureaucracy
•Oversees implementation & enforcement of laws
•Hires/fires officials
•Pardoning powers
President as Chief. . .
Diplomat:
•Makes treaties
•Receives foreign officials
•Represents the U.S. abroad
President as Chief. . .
Commander-in-Chief:
•Head of the military
•Sends troops into conflicts*
•*1973 War Powers Act (reaction to Vietnam)
•Must report to Congress in 48 hours
•Must withdraw troops within 90 days if Congress does not give approval in that time
•Presidents (like Clinton in Kosovo) have claimed that it is unconstitutional
President as Chief. . .
Legislator:
•Presidential agenda
•Role in legislative process (veto powers)
Return
The Electoral College: --51 separate presidential elections--Notice how Nebraska and Maine are different
Return
Party Polarization Over Time
Winning coalition (must get over half)
Notice how many moderate (or even conservative) Democrats with whom
President Reagan could negotiate
1982: President Reagan
(Republican) needs to pass a
bill…
Party Polarization Over Time
Winning coalition (must get over half)
Notice how many fewer moderate Republicans there are with whom President Clinton could negotiate
1994: President Clinton
(Democrat) needs to pass a
bill…
Party Polarization Over Time
Winning coalition (must get over half)
Notice how many fewer moderate Democrats there are with whom President Bush could negotiate
2002: President Bush (Republican)
needs to pass a bill…