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Challenges on New Technologies Challenges on New Technologies For Sustainable Energy SystemFor Sustainable Energy System Tech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTITech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTI
Challenges on New Technologies Challenges on New Technologies For Sustainable Energy SystemFor Sustainable Energy System Tech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTITech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTI
Jūrmala (Latvia) 11-14 May, 2005
Morihiro KURUSHIMAProfessor
Toyo University / NEDO,JAPANToyo University / NEDO,JAPAN 1
Fragile Energy Supply Structure
- Scarce domestic energy resources- Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared to other major countries- High dependency on oil from the Middle East
CharacteristicsCharacteristics
Energy in Japan in Comparison to the WorldEnergy in Japan in Comparison to the World
( % )
19.7
70.5
44.636.5
75.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
J apan U.S.A. Fance Germany England
Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy in Major Countries (2000)
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
86%
26%
37%
13%5%
48%40% 37% 39%
34%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
J apan U.S.A. France Germany England
Dependency on theMiddle EastDependency on oil
Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and Dependency on Oil in the World
(2000-2001)
Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)
(%)
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000)
J apan U.S.A. France Germany UKPrimary energy supply(oil conversion: mtoe ) 525 2300 257 340 233
Coal 18 24 6 24 16Oil 51 39 34 39 36
Natural gas 12 24 14 21 38Nuclear power 16 9 42 13 10Hydropower 1.4 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.2
Recyclable energy, etc. 2 4 2 3 2
Japan’s New and Renewable Energy IndicatorsJapan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
4
Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI
FY2001FY2010
Indicators
Photovoltaic 110,000 kl(452MW)
1,180,000 kl(4,820 MW)
Wind 127,000 kl(312MW)
1,340,000 kl(3,000 MW)
Waste1,250,000 kl(1,110MW)
5,520,000 kl(4,170 MW)
Biomass 48,000 kl(71MW)
340,000 kl(330 MW)
Solar 820,000 kl 4,390,000 kl
Waste 45,000 kl 140,000 kl
Biomass ー 670,000 kl
Unused energy(incl. Snow-ice)
44,000 kl 580,000 kl
Black liquor and scrap wood, etc.
4,460,000 kl 4,940,000 kl
6,900,000 kl(1.2%)
19,100,000 kl(approx. 3%)
Total(Share of total primary energy
supply)
Ele
ctri
c P
ow
erT
her
mal
En
ergy
Uti
lizat
ion
FY2001FY2010
Indicators
Total New Energy 7 million kl 19 million kl
Hydropower 21 million kl 20 million kl
Geothermal 1 million kl 1 million kl
Grand Total(Share of total primary energy
supply)
29 million kl(4.9%)
40 million kl(approx. 7%)
New Energy Renewable Energy
Supply Side
Cost Competitiveness of NRE
Power generation cost of new energy (Unit: JPY/kWh)
147~2111~129~1118~249~147346~66Power
generation cost
Small- and
medium- scale
Large- scale
Small- and
medium- scale
Large- scale
Non-residential
Residential
Small- and medium-
scale hydropower
Biomass power
Waste powerWind powerPhotovoltaic power
Type
Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others
Power generation cost by power source (Unit: JPY/kWh)
10.26.56.45.9Power generation cost
Oil-firedCoal-firedLNG-firedNuclear powerType
Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory
Committee for Energy (December 1999)
5
3700
1020 930 840 750 710
1040
20001700
1200
209
24 31 4360
91
133
330
453
637
0
2000
4000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
\ 58/ kWh\ 52/ kWh \ 49/ kWh
\ 65/ kWh\ 71/ kWh\ 72/ kWh
\ 82/ kWh
\ 120/ kWh
\ 140/ kWh
\ 260/ kWh
Cost of residential PV system(Unit: 1,000JPY)
Applications of PV powergeneration (Unit: MW)
Trial period Diffusion project
Power generationcost per 1kWh
Installation costper 1kW
PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Period of market creation Period of independence and expansion in the market Period of market maturity
Market independence
Development of new products
Creation of initial demand
: Market scale
この時期が重要This period is important.
Synergistic effect of mass production and cost reduction
Cannot be sold without support
Technical development
▪ High cost ▪ Competition with existing products ▪ Construction of a total energy system ▪ A lack of social awareness
Creation of Initial Demand
6
Dif
fusi
on D
iffi
cult
y L
evel
Japan’s Position in Steel IndustryJapan’s Position in Steel IndustryComparison of Unit Energy Consumption in Integrated Steelworks
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
JAPAN KOREA EU USA CHINA
100105
110
120
150(2003, indexes with Japan set at 100)
Source: Based on dialogue among JISF, Korea Iron and Steel Association, China Iron and Steel Association etc.
Non-annexI
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2010 2020
Non-annex I
Future global CO2 emissions
Em
issi
ons
(Mil
lion
t-C
)
Japan 5%
Russia6%
India 4%
Germany4%
Others44%
China13%
USA24%
Global CO2 emissions in 1999
Annex IAnnex I
The reason Why ? The reason Why ? CO2 Emissions in the worldCO2 Emissions in the world
1 9
PV Power Supply Project in Mongolia with NEDO-Japan & Sharp Co.
Power plant : 100kW
Hospital : 40kWVillage office : 10kW
Communication center : 10kW
School : 40kW
Noyon Soum, Mongolia
PV: 200kWPower Distribution:
Hospital / Communication Center:24hrs/day 128 Households:16 hrs/day
1 10
PV panels
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Micro-hydro power generator
Batteries
Micro-hydro power generator
Micro-hydro: 41.2kWPV1: 30kWPV2-6: 7.5kW
Power distribution:200 households, 6 hrs/day21
PV Power Supply Project with Micro-hidro
in Cambodia
PV Power Supply Project with Micro-hidro
in Cambodia
1 11
Latin America 13
Middle East Africa 23 (9%)
Mongolia 1
South West Asia 14
Tonga 1
Eastern Europe 55(21%)
China 47(18%)
ASEAN 59(23%)
260 F/S47 Countries
NEDO’s F/S on CDM/JI Projects NEDO’s F/S on CDM/JI Projects
in 47 Countriesin 47 Countries (FY1998-2004) (FY1998-2004)
Central Asia17
Russia 30(12%)
1 12
NEDO’S JI Activity in Kazakhstan NEDO’S JI Activity in Kazakhstan Fuel flow
Heat
Power
Fuel ( Natural
Gas )
Fuel ( Natural
Gas ) Steam turbines
Steam turbines
Power generation
boilers
Power generation
boilers
Hot water boilers
Hot water boilers
Thermal Thermal
Power Power
122.
Heat Recovery Steam Generation System
Heat Recovery Steam Generation System
Gas turbineGas turbine
Current condition
Model Project Annual CO2 emissions in baseline case 192,000 t-CO2 /y Annual CO2 emissions in project case 130,000 t-CO2 /y Annual Emissions Reduction 62,000 t-CO2/y
1 13
Projects With Industries In Mexico and
Thailand
Japan AMA
Export (200 vehicles)
Monitoring, Construct. etc.
Traffic Improvement
Project in Bangkok
Mexico STE
Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
1 14
EnergyPlant CO2
Separation
Liquefaction Solidification
Bio Factory
( Pipeline Transportation )
( Heat Transportation )
Tank
Tank
Geological Segregation
Biomass Methane Fermentation
Fuel Cell
Concept of Sustainable Energy System with Concept of Sustainable Energy System with Geological SequestrationGeological Sequestration
1 15
From 1997(NEDO, RITE)Joint project by Japan, US, Canada and Norway
Coal bed
CH 4
CH 4
CO2CH4
CO 2
CO2 fixation Substitution
Contribution to IPCC Special
Report
Ocean Sequestration
From 2000(RITE)Nagaoka-shi, Niigata Prefecture
Sequestration in an Aquifer
CO2 Sequestration Projects in JapanCO2 Sequestration Projects in Japan
From 2002(KANSO, J-COAL)
Sequestration in a coal bed
1 16
Concept of Sustainable Bio-Factory with Concept of Sustainable Bio-Factory with Geological SequestrationGeological Sequestration
1 17
Outline of the CTIOutline of the CTI
Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany,Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Norway, UK, USA, Japan and Finland Norway, UK, USA, Japan and Finland
Chair : Mr.Sakamoto/METI,JAPAN Vice Chair : Mr.Holts/US.DOE,
Mr.Carrington/UK.DTIP.Manager : Prof.Kurushima
• Seminars and Symposia Technology Needs Assessments Training Courses Information Dissemination Working with UNFCCC/EGTT, UNIDO, UNDP etc.
1 18
“CTI/Industry Joint Seminar on Technology Diffusion” Series
Warsaw(11-12 May
2000)
Bratislava(14-16 July
1999)
(19-20 May 1998)
San Salvador(27-28 Mar.
2000)
Victoria Falls(17-19 Mar.
1999)
Jakarta(4-5 Feb. 2004)
Madrid(18-19 Sep. 1999)
Beiging
( 27-28 Sep. 2002 )Vienna
(28-29 Oct. 2003)
Cebu(14-15 Jan. 2000)
Vienna
(28-29 Oct. 2004)
Mexico City (18-19 Feb.
2004)
New Delhi (11-12 March
2004)
Beiging
( 24-25 Feb. 2005 )
1 19
CTI
Gov. /Gov.Org.
Bank
Coordination
Basic SurveyFS/Project Formation
Industry
Project Implementation
Academia/Univ.
“ “World Tech. Bank for Energy & Environment”World Tech. Bank for Energy & Environment”
1 20
CTI
MauritiusGov.
SADAC S.African D. Bank
Preliminary Study
Basic Survey FS/Project Formation
Industry
Project Implementation
NRELUS-DOE
NEDOJapan
With Gov, International Org, Bank and Industry With Gov, International Org, Bank and Industry for Energy & Environment”for Energy & Environment”
1 21
PV R&D Scenario for 2010For Our Common FutureFor Our Common FutureFor Our Common FutureFor Our Common Future
Gov. Initiative with 3Players for 3E
Sustainable Sustainable SocietySociety
Energy
EnvironmentEconomy
Industry
Academia
Financial
1 22
Thank you for your attention.Thank you for your attention.
25
3/25/2005 ~ 9/25/2005