challenges of climate change in africa: an update on...
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges of Climate Change in Africa: An update on Development and Delivery of
Drought Tolerant Maize
B.M. Prasanna with CIMMYT‐Africa Team
Director, Global Maize Program & CRP MAIZECIMMYT, Nairobi, Kenya
AFSTA Congress; March 3, 2016
Are we seeing sufficient increase in global maize yields?
www.environmentreports.com/enough-food-for-the-future/
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Grain Yield (M
T/Ha)
Africa S. America S. Asia C. America
Maize grain yields in Africa have improved, but still far from optimal…
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Grain Yield (K
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Maize yield in Africa (2012, FAOSTAT)
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# Drought years out
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Frequency of Drought
Average maize yield in SSA is yet to touch 2 t/ha.
Severe Drought in Southern Africa (2015‐2016)
CIMMYT’s success in breeding stress-resilient maize germplasm has nearly four decades of continuous efforts….
Population Description Genetic material
DTP‐Y and DTP‐W
60% lowland tropical, 20% subtropical, 20% temperate
Derived from 25 putative drought tolerance sources (Tuxpeño Sequia, Latente, Michoacan21, Suwan 1, CIMMYT Pops. 22, 32, 62, 64,and 66); 11% landraces; rest from elite drought tolerant sources, Corn Belt hybrids, germplasm from Thailand and S. Africa
La Posta Sequia (LPS)
Lowland tropical, late‐maturing, white dent.
Derived from CIMMYT Population 43 C, SR.
Drought and low N stress tolerant germplasm development via recurrent selection initiated at CIMMYT in 1975
Farmers need varieties that perform well under both optimal and stress conditions/years…
Regional On‐Station Trials
Recombination within heterotic groups
Selfing and selections
Germplasm base
Optimal (n=4)
Managed drought (n=2)
Random drought (n=2)
Low nitrogen (n=2)
Regional On‐farm Varietal Trials
Diseases (based on regional
priorities)
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Managed Drought and Heat Stress Screening Network in SSA
●Transgenic drought
Drought●Heat●
10 countries48.5 hectares121,250 low N rows21 locations (public)5 locations (private)
NUE PhenotypingNetwork in ESA
Extensive field‐based stress phenotyping networks
Commercial hybrid Experimental hybrid New DT hybrid New DT hybrid
Drought Tolerant Maize Hybrids for SSA
MH28, a DT hybrid Commercial drought‐susceptible hybrids
DT Hybrids vs. Commercial Drought‐vulnerable Hybrids (Malawi; 2015)
CIMMYT works with >100 seed companies across Africa!
>52,000 tons of drought‐tolerant maize seed produced and delivered by seed company partners in 13 African countries in 2014, reaching 5 million households
Scaling‐up and delivering improved stress tolerant seed through PPPs
1 MT enough for 40 ha; each family plants not more than 10 kg.
2014 estimates of drought tolerant maize seed production, potential area covered, households and people benefiting
Country Volume(in MT)
Area (in ha)
Estimated Beneficiaries
Households PeopleAngola 1,500 60,000 150,000 996,000Benin 1,787 71,468 178,670 2,322,710Ethiopia 5,464 218,571 546,427 4,152,845Ghana 2,444 97,760 244,400 2,688,400Kenya 5,065 202,600 506,500 3,393,550Malawi 5,400 216,000 540,000 2,808,000Mali 1,152 46,074 115,185 182,430Mozambique 1,500 60,000 150,000 930,000Nigeria 14,291 571,636 1,429,089 15,719,979Tanzania 3,578 143,112 357,780 2,218,236Uganda 3,192 127,668 319,170 2,329,941Zambia 2,000 80,000 200,000 1,280,000Zimbabwe 5,545 221,800 554,500 2,606,150
Total 52,917 2,116,688 5,291,721 41,628,241
>200 unique DT maize varieties released under DTMA across 13 SSA countries during 2007‐2015
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Grain Yield (K
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Ethiopia Zambia Uganda Malawi Ghana Nigeria SSA
Maize Yields in Selected Countries
How can we sustainably improve smallholder farmers’ crop yields and income…
Time to the market of competitive products = Time to impact• Input and output markets• Stimulating demand for improved varieties
• Rapid seed scale‐up and delivery• Complementary agronomy• Rate of varietal turnover
In the past:Number of improved
crop varieties generated
Today:Demonstrated
impact in farmers’ fields
Shift to
CountryNumber
of DT products
Number of seed
companiesOther
partners
Ethiopia 7 9 5
Kenya 16 5 0
Tanzania 14 7 1
Uganda 13 10 1
Malawi 12 7 3
Mozambique 9 7 2
Zambia 14 7 3
Total 85 52 15
Targeted Delivery of Improved Stress Tolerant Maize Varieties in ESA
Source: DTMASS/MISST
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe
Never 1‐3 times 4‐6 times 7‐10 times
Farmers’ perception of frequency of drought
Source: Fisher et al. 2015
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Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe
Percen
tages
DT modern maize Modern maize, not DT Local maize
Adoption of improved maize varieties in selected countries
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Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe
Seed availability Information Resources Seed price Seed traits Other
Constraints to DT Maize Adoption in ESA
Source: Fisher et al. 2015
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Benin Ghana Mali Nigeria
Awareness Availability Affordability Preference Risky Interest Others
Constraints to DT Maize Adoption in West Africa
Source: DTMA Surveys, 2013
Countries Top 5 Maize Varieties Year ofRelease
Oldest Latest
Ethiopia BH540‡, Shone‡, Agar‡, Melkassa2†, BH660‡ 1993 2008
Kenya Duma43‡, DHO2‡, WS505, DK8031‡, DHO4‡ 1995 2004
Tanzania Staha†, Situka1†, DK8031‡, Pan67†, TMV1† 1983 2002
Uganda Longe5†, Longe 10H‡, Longe4†, Longe 6H‡, Longe 7H‡ 2000 2009
Angola Branco Redondo§, Amarelo§, Catete§, Nanhala§, Vermelho§ 1957 1967
Malawi Kanyani‡, Pan53‡, Makangala‡, Mkango‡, ZM309† 1999 2009
Mozambique Pan67‡, Pan53‡, Matuba†, SC513‡, DK 8031‡ 1982 2011
Zambia Pan53‡, MRI624‡, SC513‡, ZMS606‡, MRI634‡ 1999 2006
Zimbabwe SC513‡, Pan413‡, PHB3253‡, SC403‡, SC627‡ 1993 1999Benin Faaba†, TZPB‐SR†, 2000Syn EEW†, DMRESR‐W/QPM†, TZE Comp 3DT† 1989 2010
Ghana Obatanpa†, Aburotia†, Dobidi†, Laposta†, Golden Crystal† 1972 1992Mali Sotubaka†, Dembanyuma†, Nieleni†, Zangreni†, Jorobana† 1985 2009
Nigeria Oba Super 9‡, EVDT 99†, 3DT Com†, Comp5†, Sammaz27† 1976 2009
Average 26.6 10.3
Need to actively replace age‐old, obsolete varieties (20+ year‐old) with new, improved varieties!
‡ = Hybrid; † = OPV; § = Local
Genetic Gains in ESA
Grain yield (kg ha‐1 yr‐1)
Masuka et al. submitted
A stronger and more diverse seed sector is vital for rapidly driving genetic gains in farmers’ fields…• Efficient variety release and seed supply systems across SSA• More rapid access by farmers to new varieties:
– Currently 5 to >>10 years – Widespread access in ≤ 5 years after development
• Healthier and more diverse maize seed sector – Growth of small companies beyond 1500 mt– Inclusive financing
• Disincentives for sale of 20+ year old varieties• QC/QA: Quality Control/Quality Assurance through effective
inspection and use of modern tools (DNA fingerprinting)
Agro‐advisory Services• Communicating weather‐ and climate‐
based agro‐advisories – The adoption and success of CSA technologies and practices depend on the effective delivery of agro‐advisory services.
• Many countries in SSA trying to provide agro‐advisories (success varies greatly)
• Cell‐phone based information service delivery in Uganda
• Mali’s 30‐year Agromet advisory by involving farmers
• Ethiopia’s recent pilot 10‐day integrated agro‐advisory services
Early warning for early action
Improving smallholders’ livelihoods requires much more than just improved maize seed• Generating awareness about improved technologies. Knowledge is power!
• Sustainable intensification (improved varieties + agronomy + policies)
• Buffering farming communities from climate‐induced risks; Agro‐advisory services
• Strengthening linkages to the markets• Policies and incentives for financial institutions to invest better in agriculture and strengthening the value chains
Thanks to…• Partners in Africa, for tremendous support
• Funding agencies, especially Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture, SDC and CRP MAIZE
• CIMMYT colleagues for their commitment to the mission