Challenges for the tanker sector in the second decade of the 21 st century Bill Box Senior Manager Communications & External Relations INTERTANKO Plymouth University Friday 8 November, 2013 INTERTANKO What we do: Provide leadership to the tanker industry in serving the world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products What we work towards: A responsible, sustainable and respected tanker industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future zero fatalities, zero pollution, zero psc detentions INTERTANKO the figures 220 members 3,250 tankers 284m dwt 40 countries 75% of independent fleet > 10,000 dwt Associate Members INTERTANKO strength in its committees Associate Members Bunkers Chemical Tankers Documentary Environmental Human Element Insurance & Legal Offshore Tankers Safety & Technical Vetting INTERTANKO c h a l l e n g e s Sustainability Tanker Supply & Demand Green Transportation Piracy Sustainability Commercial sustainability = viability Strategies for s u r v i v a l Is the old way of doing business the right way for the second decade of the 21 st century? INTERTANKO viability and sustainability Todays tanker market is unviable and poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the energy supply chain INTERTANKO viability and sustainability Un-viability manifested + in charter/freight rates not covering basic vessel operating costs + in the late payment of freight and demurrage hits owners cashflow increases owners working capital reqt + in inconsistent, unbalanced charter terms INTERTANKO viability and sustainability Estimated accumulated losses VLCCs + Suezmaxes + Aframaxes $ billion INTERTANKO Sustainability Project Aim: To realign tanker industry key stakeholders, and to work towards more balanced tanker trading conditions and fair risk sharing, that will allow sustainable quality shipping regardless of market cycles. To change bad habits/practices (late payments) A m b i t i o u s aim? Start with some specifics... INTERTANKO Sustainability Project Specifics: Erosion of, and failure to adhere to c/p terms Lack of understanding about Worldscale Inconsistent, subjective, costly vetting practices Delays in freight and demurrage settlements Sustainability Project ty Sustainability Project Headline figures: Accumulated losses since 2009 for large/medium tankers $26bn The same again (or more) accumulated by the smaller sizes Sustainability Project Contractual obligations? Freight payable on completion of discharge Pilot study: Typical 5-10 days Demurrage payable on receipt owners invoice Pilot study: Typical >3 months Sustainability Project pilot study, demurrage Sustainability Project Primary Focus: late payments by charterers Ultimate Aim: to change ingrained bad habits INTERTANKO Chairman Letter to Charterers >70 top level recipients Oil companies and oil traders Sustainability Project Chairmans Letter to Charterers Payment terms, freight & demurrage worsening trend towards chronic late settlement Honouring key contractual obligations Voluntary Code of Conduct Tanker supply and demand Weak market, uncertain fundamentals Oil demand increasing 1-2% pa But oversupply of tankers - physical and operational Increasing North American oil supplies (shale oil) replacing Middle East oil Reduced tanker tonne-miles Tanker supply and demand - the key 100,000 tonnes North Sea/NW Europe (530 miles) 53m tonne-miles 100,000 tonnes Middle East/NW Europe (11,150 miles) 1,115m tonne-miles Tanker tonne-mile effect Tanker indices % Tanker fleet development (Assumed max phase-out) Tanker fleet increase some 72% m dwtnumber Assumed orderbook August 2011, include chemical tankers Volatile tanker demand = volatile rates Source: Baltice: Exchange/BITR $/day Strategic considerations for a tanker investor Young fleet - 70% for another years China + Asia Pacific expected to drive oil demand Middle East has the production reserves Eyes fixed on 2014 BUT world economy unstable and high oil price increases uncertainty Large orderbook and deliveries weaken s/d balance Successful global GHG emission reduction means reduced oil consumption LNG Carrier and Product Tanker market strongest today - fewer ship deliveries, demand for clean energy US shale-oil backing out long-haul Middle East crudes Tankers green transportation Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt Based on LRFairplay Years Shipping is energy efficient Toyota Prius - 1 tonne, 1 kg CO2, 12 km Source: Danish Shipowners Association Intl shipping - environmental performance Industry programmes in conjunction with the IMO: Oil pollution - reduced by > 95% since 1970s Engine efficiency - improved by > 20% in last 15 years Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) - voluntary measures - VOC emissions down by > 80% and over the next ten years will also deliver: Toxic air emissions (SOx and NOx) - sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions being further reduced by c. 90% and nitrogen oxide (NOx) by c.60% Industry pushing mandatory efficiency improvements Reducing GHG emissions on new ships by 30% by % 20% 30% Phase Phase Phase 3 on and after 2025 Reference Line Today Design Index (EEDI) Ship Size (DWT) Attained EEDI < Required EEDI [Tankers>20,000 DWT] Shipping is energy efficient US $ 240,000,000,000 and still has a massive incentive to continuously reduce its GHG emissions - the annual fuel bill for international shipping - and one that is set to rise as oil prices rise and cleaner fuels are introduced - fuel bill is often % of total operating costs 1.Tanker industry is able to achieve compliance with current and future discharge standards (both regionally and internationally) 2.Installation and Operation of appropriate and adequate ballast water management systems 3.Compliance and enforcement need strong, well defined and realistic international regulations 4.Given 1,2 and 3, tanker owners can then safely invest in BWM systems Ballast Water Management INTERTANKOs Strategic Plan Piracy Northernmost Attack 15 Jan 11 MV SAMHO JEWELRY (Pirated) Easternmost Attack 5 Dec 10 MV JAHAN MONI (Pirated) 2005 165 nm off coast 2006 200 nm 2007 200 nm 2008 445 nm 2009 1,200 nm 2010/2011 1,500+ nm 1,400 nm 1,450 nm 1750 nm Haradeere Somali piracy geographic spread 065E 15S Southernmost Attack 28 Dec 10 FV VEGA 5 (Pirated) Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean ship transits N / S transit of Arabian Sea vessels keeping ever further East running out of ocean space! Naval arrest and prosecution of pirates Piracy - Somalia 2009 Statistics - 47 hijackings (21% of incidents) 2011 Statistics - 24 hijackings (12% of incidents) 2013 Statistics - 6 attacks, 1 hijacking (brief), - numerous suspicious incidents Piracy - Somalia Fewer successful pirate attacks: Proactive interventions from naval forces Armed guards Ship speed Implementing BMP B M P Three essential requirements that cannot be over emphasised: Register Register in advance with naval forces Report Report to naval forces Implement Implement Self Protection Measures Gulf of Guinea Violent attacks by armed pirates Aiming to steal cargo, not hold hostages In national waters: so no international naval intervention only permitted use local armed guards Thank you for your attention