challenges and successes incorporating big data in travel...
TRANSCRIPT
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Challenges and Successes incorporating Big Data in Travel Models
September 21, 2016
Vince Bernardin, PhD, RSG
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What does Big Data mean for modeling?
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• Tennessee Statewide Model
─ First statewide model
calibrated with AirSage
Recent Experiences
• Other experiences
─ Indiana statewide model (first statewide model with ATRI)
─ California, New York, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina,
Florida, Iowa, Utah, Alaska…
─ rMove, Bluetooth
• Chattanooga MPO Model
─ First activity-based model
incorporating AirSage
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The Power of Big Data
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The Power of Big Data
TN STATEWIDE DATA
• Combined household survey
NHTS + 4 MPOs
10,344 households
• AirSage and ATRI datasets
• Trip Table (OD pairs)
─ Total: 12,744,900
─ Survey: 39,782 0.3%
─ AirSage: 3,355,539 26.3%
CHATTANOOGA DATA
• 2010 household survey
1,502 households
• AirSage and ATRI datasets
• Trip Table (OD pairs)
─ Total: 529,984
─ Survey: 8,350 2.0%
─ AirSage: 182,742 34.5%
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Can you recognize the pattern based on <2%?
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How about based on >25%?
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Big Data allows us to see the Big Picture
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Memphis 1,000 Truck Sample
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Same 1,000 Trucks After 24 Hours
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Same 1,000 Trucks After 48 Hours
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Same 1,000 Trucks After 72 Hours
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Same 1,000 Trucks After 5 Days
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Same 1,000 Trucks After 7 Days
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The Limitations of Big Data
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Cleaning Required
• Filtering / cleaning
─ Needs vary by data source – but all need it
─ GPS jumps/blips and equivalent
─ Missing data
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Limited Spatial Resolution
• Accuracy and Cost
─ Cell-based has limited precision
─ Pricing based on number of zones / districts
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No Purpose or Mode
• Just ODs – not a survey substitute
─ Imputation can’t reproduce surveys (so far)
─ GPS ID persistence prohibitive
─ Better to supplement with CTPP / LEHD
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Trip Definitions
• Combining AirSage and ATRI
─ Need consistent trip/stop definition
─ Whether or not to count “intermediate”
stops and break up long trips
• Filtering short stops eliminated 87% of inconsistencies
─ From 11% of cells & 0.20% of trips to 1% of cells and 0.09% trips
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Not Representative
• Big Sample NOT Random Sample
─ Locational biases, holes
─ Trip length / duration biases
─ Not corrected by penetration-based expansion
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Data Expansion
• Traffic Counts are unbiased – expand to counts
─ ODME-based
─ Direct ODME
─ In-direct ODME
─ Non-ODME-based
─ Iterative screenline fitting
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Model Results with Big Data
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TN Long Distance Trips
• Modeled Trips pivot off AirSage/ATRI
• FHWA National Long Distance Model
Calibrated to Regional AirSage Data
─ Psychological bias against state
border crossings
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TN Internal Districts
DISTRICT SCHEME (INTERNALS)
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Within TN Trip Distribution
DISTRICT-TO-DISTRICT COMPARISON
• Importance of comparing actual OD pattern, not just TLFD
• Very good agreement, overall
• District level origins & destinations all within 1.5%
• District level ODs all within 2% except within Nashville district
Tri-Cities Knoxville Chattanooga Cookeville Lynchburg Nashville Jackson Memphis
Tri-Cities 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Knoxville 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% -0.1% 0.0% -1.5% -0.3% -0.3% 0.9%
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% 0.4%
Cookeville 0.0% -0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -0.6% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
Lynchburg 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% -1.3% 0.1% 0.0% -0.9%
Nashville -0.3% -1.4% -0.2% -0.9% -1.5% 6.1% -0.3% -1.2% 0.4%
Jackson 0.0% -0.3% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% -1.1% 0.3% 0.1% -1.2%
Total: All 1.0% 0.3% 1.1% -0.8% -1.0% 0.5% -0.5% -0.7% 0.0%
Total
Origin
districts
Destination districts
Relative Percentage Difference (Model Version 3 vs AirSage) I-I Trips
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Assignment Validation
• Great fit!
─ One of best statewide models
in the country
VOLUME RANGE RMSE TDOT TARGET
< 5,000 102.1% 101.4%
5,000 to 10,000 35.6% 56.3%
10,000 to 20,000 22.0% 51.4%
20,000 to 30,000 16.4% 35.7%
30,000 to 40,000 14.8% 32.0%
> 40,000 11.1% 12.2%
All 36.6% 60.0%
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Chattanooga Daysim
Destination District O-D Shadow Pricing
Convergence Summary
Iteration Absolute Error Mean absolute
% error
Weighted mean
absolute % error
RMSE
1 516,595 23.3% 22.2% 37.1%
2 421,404 20.6% 19.1% 30.7%
… … … … …
24 59,962 11.8% 8.3% 10.5%
• Shadow-Pricing
– Used 40 district scheme with
LEHD and AirSage data
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10.5% RMSE
• Daysim vs. AirSage
─ Very good agreement –
─ All cells within +/- 1%
─ All residence/work Super Districts within +/-2.5%
Total Daysim Trip Table vs. AirSage
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 0.5% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0%
2 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.7%
3 -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
5 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
6 -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7%
8 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
10 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5%
12 -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -0.7% -2.4%
Grand Total 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.4% -0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% -1.3% 0.0%
Origin
SuperDistrict
Destination Super District Grand
Total
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Assignment Validation
• Great fit!
─ Better than old model
─ Far exceeds TDOT standards
VOLUME RANGE RMSE TDOT MAXIMUM
< 5,000 62.1% 100%
5,000 to 10,000 37.9% 45%
10,000 to 15,000 28.0% 35%
15,000 to 20,000 22.7% 30%
20,000 to 30,000 15.7% 27%
30,000 to 50,000 14.1% 25%
50,000 to 60,000 9.9% 20%
All 29.0% 45%
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Final Thoughts
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What’s Next?
• Data Driven Forecasting
─ Pivoting, destination choice models with constants
─ Better accuracy, analog to STOPS
• Accelerating Pace of Change
─ Transformational changes
─ Big data may provide key in more frequent updates
• Evolving Data & Methods
─ New data sources entering the market
─ Improved imputation methods?
─ Data fusion: surveys & big data
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www.rsginc.com
Contacts
www.rsginc.com
Contact
Vince Bernardin, Jr, PhD DIRECTOR OF TRAVEL FORECASTING
812.200.2351