CHALLENGE BIBENDUM 2010 – RIO DE JANEIRO ROUND TABLE 3 TOPICS

 HOW TO MEET A 10 to 15 % MARKET SHARE

OF BATTERY, FUEL CELL AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES BY 2020?

Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE

Academician, Chinese Academy of Engineering

Fellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K., President, World Electric Vehicles

AssociationPresident, Electric Vehicle Association of

Asia Pacific

Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor : Good Products; Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model

Infrastructure

ProductsBusiness models

EV Market Success

Good Products:High Performance @ Reasonable Cost

I: Integration & Optimization of Automotive & Electrical TechnologiesA: Alliance of OEM & Key Components Suppliers

Chasis & Body

Technology

Powertrain Technology

Energy Storage Technology

I+A

Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience

ParkingDurations

14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per day

Charging Points

1 charging point per vehicle

< 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point per vehicle

Power &Charing timeRequirements

Low power and normal charging

(e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs)

High power and quick charging

(e.g. 22 kW, 2 hrs)

Low power and normal charging

(e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)

Innovative EV/PHEV Business Model:To Leverage the Initial Cost of Battery

By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes

Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thou

sand

s

Uni

t Shi

pmen

ts Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio

Scenario's 2008 2009 20152020

(% of total car sales)

Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12%

F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7%

Conservative Scenario 5,103 7,550 520,953 4%

BEV

HEV

ICE

FCV

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Trends of Various Types Vehicles Population　　　　

Two Pathways for HEV Technology Development Technical Road Map

FUTURE AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONSFUTURE AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS未来城市个人交通变革最新解决方案未来城市个人交通变革最新解决方案

Powered Mechanically by Powered Mechanically by Internal Combustion Internal Combustion

Engine Engine 内燃机机械动力内燃机机械动力Controlled Controlled

MechanicallyMechanically机械控制机械控制

Energized by Energized by Petroleum Petroleum 石油能源石油能源

Stand-aloneStand-alone独立系统独立系统

Powered Electrically Powered Electrically by Electric Motorsby Electric Motors

电力电机驱动电力电机驱动

Controlled ElectronicallyControlled Electronically电子控制电子控制

Energized by Energized by Electricity and Electricity and

Hydrogen Hydrogen 电能与氢电能与氢

““Connected”Connected”交互系统交互系统

Totally Dependence on Totally Dependence on the Driver the Driver 依赖驾驶员全操依赖驾驶员全操

控控

Semi/Full Autonomous Semi/Full Autonomous DrivingDriving

自动自动 // 半自动 驾驶半自动 驾驶Vehicle Sized for Max Vehicle Sized for Max

Use – People and CargoUse – People and Cargo 车体尺寸利用最大化车体尺寸利用最大化 - - 乘员货乘员货

物物

Vehicle Tailored to Specific UseVehicle Tailored to Specific Use特殊用途的量身定制车特殊用途的量身定制车

Electric Power & Communication Infrastructures

Central GeneratingStation

Step-Up Transformer

DistributionSubstation

ReceivingStation

DistributionSubstation

DistributionSubstation

Commercial

Industrial Commercial

Gas Turbine

RecipEngine

Cogeneration

RecipEngine

Fuel cell

Micro-turbine

Flywheel

Residential

Photovoltaics

Batteries

Residential Data Concentrator

Control Center

Data network Users

2. Information Infrastructure

1.Power Infrastructure

Source: EPRI 10

Smart House Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery

Solar Cell

SmartMeter

AC

DC

ACDC

Charge

Back up

Mid-nightelectricity

Grid

Char

geAppliances 

Distribute

Converter

EV Battery （ LiB ）

Buy

Sell

China’s Objective & Strategy

BusesBuses

Energy saving vehiclesEnergy saving vehicles Hybrid

vehiclesHybrid vehicles

Small vehiclesSmall vehicles

Medium & high class sedanMedium & high class sedan

Emerging from two ends:Buses and small vehicles

Emerging from two ends:Buses and small vehicles

Develop marketDevelop market

IInspirationnspiration

IImaginationmagination

IInnovationnnovation

IIntegrationntegration

IImplementationmplementation

IInvestmentnvestment