cgy it decisions june 2011

Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute

04/08/2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1

Scenario PlanningAnd

IT Decision Making

Dr Chris [email protected]

IT Decisions ConferenceJune 2011


SAMI

• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and

implementation– Consulting, executive education and research to deliver

“robust decisions in uncertain times”

• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797

04/08/2023 2www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Robust decisions in uncertain times• Formed in 1989

– Until 1999 based at St Andrews University– Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows– Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society

• People:– 8 Fellows, – Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, – Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership;

– 7 Principals, – Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors,– Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational

development

– Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg – Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs– Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual

communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----

Who we are



April 8, 2023 4

Futures Thinking

• Contingency planning• Scenarios• Systems thinking• Complexity theory• Ethnographic Futures

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Imagine 2011 in 1981

• Technology– WWW– Mobile Phones– iPOD/PAD/Phone– DAB– DTT,HDTV,3DTV– Wii,Xbox360,PS3– BUT AI?, VideoConf?,

Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars…

• What about– Chelsea FC owned by

a Russian– BRICs– Global Terrorism– Climate Change– Bollywood– HIV/AIDS


My Experience over 30 years

• 20% will happen as consensus• 15% will happen but slower than

consensus• 5% will happen faster than consensus• 15% will be superceded before it happens• 10% stalls/disappoints• 20% just doesn’t happen• 15% is off Radar

04/08/2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6


Three Horizons


8 April 2023 8

Repeating Problems

• Standards Wars• WIIFM• Infrastructure lags• Long-term capacity developments



April 8, 2023 9

What type of future?

• Desired ( my plan)• Desirable ( Plan B)• Plausible ( time to rethink?)• Consensus ( my contrarian plan)• Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)



Beware…

• Modern Myths• This time it’s different…• Putting New in front of everything..• Everything has a history• Revolution or cohort effects• Roadblocks (IPv6?)


April 8, 2023 11

Unpicking Assumptions

“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.

The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”

A Social Media guru

• While at the same time...• Predicted 100%

compound growth for 5 years

• All existing services would still be there and free

• Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years

• Governments wouldn’t regulate...


Robust decisions in uncertain times1066 and All That

8 April 2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12

Cavaliers

RoundheadsRight

Wrong

Repulsive Romantic

Robust decisions in uncertain timesThe Futurists Dilemma

8 April 2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13

BroadVision

?FocussedTheme

HighCredibility

Low Credibility

Wrong Right

Robust decisions in uncertain timesDimensions of the Current Challenge

8 April 2023 14

EconomicChange

Strategic Response

cyclical

structural

Reactive Proactive

Market Step Change

Sitting Tight Mopping up

Niche Portfolio



Dynamics of the Current Challenge

8 April 2023 15

EconomicChange

Strategic Response

cyclical

structural

Reactive Proactive

Market Step Change

Sitting Tight Mopping up

Niche Portfolio

New Entrant



8 April 2023 16

Problem Types

Do we know whereWe are going?

Do we knowHow to getThere?

NO YES

NO

YES

TASK:OperationalManagement

TASK:DirectionSetting

TASK:ProcessDevelopment

TASK:ConceptCreation

After Eddie Obeng

Best practice

Next practice Emerging practice

Scaling practice


Robust decisions in uncertain times Whose Problem?

8 April 2023 17

Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank



What value?

8 April 2023 18

Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank

IdeasTrack record

Knowledge


Robust decisions in uncertain times During Step Change?

8 April 2023 19

Low

Low

High

HighUncertainty

Com

plex

ity

Academic/Expert

Consultant

PoliticalSystem

Wisdom ofThe Crowds

ThinkTank

Consultancy squeezed as limited track record



8 April 2023 20

Timing

“In the Future blind People willBe able to drive cars”



8 April 2023 21

Results

• Probability 0.9 with some 0.2• Today with Resources: 1-3 years• In practice: 3-10 years• In reality: 10-100 years



Why do we get it wrong?

• Today!!!• Prisoners of Language• Timing• Unintended consequences• Sources of Innovation• Ask the wrong question/people?• Culture• Events

8 April 2023 22www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Not understanding today…

• Societies taboos• Bubbles• Poor data for emerging trends• Examples

– Police– Paedophiles– Education– International/global interconnectivity



Timing

• Inevitability-Predictability• Risk and uncertainty• Unforseen barriers• Social factors• Long-term skill developments



Sources of Innovation

Manufacturer Active Process

User Active process

Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT


Innovation

• Open Innovation has a 200 year history• Innovation with lead users preceded the

internet• Professional solve their own problems• Big shift in computing is that consumers

not industry in the driving seat.


A Rose by any other name..

• Bouba• Kiki



Learning from the edge:Synesthesia



Prisoners of Language

• 1,000,000 cars• People will always want shoes• Classroom of the Future• Library with no books• 5 Computers



April 8, 2023 30

Who do you ask?

“ What do you teach a child at 5 years oldSo that they will be IT Literate at 20?



April 8, 2023 31

Core to the problem..

• The different disciplines involved• The hardware doesn’t exist• The software hasn’t been written• Some of the key companies haven’t yet been

formed

So who do you ask?



April 8, 2023 32

Organisational culture

• Specialists and generalists• Personal credibility• Tolerance of uncertainty• Story telling• Leadership



April 8, 2023 33

Events

• 9/11• BSE• Coalition Government• Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......

• BLACK SWANS



April 8, 2023 34

Uncertainties Today

• Web 2.0 bubble?• IPv4 to IPv6 transition• Sustainability of

Free/Freemium..• Impact of Regulation, e.g.

EU• Privacy, security• Business models?• Interdependencies...

• IPR regimes• Everything has a

history...?• Demographics....• Energy Security• Public/Private Clouds



Overoptimism or hype?



Hofstadter’s Law

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law



THANK YOU!

Any Questions?

My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20

Twitter: @chris_yapp


http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20