Danida Briefing,, October 2011

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security

(CCAFS): An Overview

Bruce CampbellProgram Director

Outline• Challenges addressed• Program design• Progress (Themes)• Cross-cutting issues• CGIAR reform

Challenge 1:Food security

Challenge 2: Adaptation

To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree world

Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Maize Rice Wheat

Food prices are likely to increase…

% p

rice

incr

ease

201

0-20

50

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

% p

rice

incr

ease

201

0-20

50Climate change will add greatly

to price increases…

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

Maize Rice Wheat

Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint

Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

Global freshwater

useChange in land

use

Biodiversity loss

Phosphorous cycle

Nitrogen cycle

Ocean acidification

Climate change

Safe operating

space

Current status

Role of Agricultur

e

Program Design

CCAFS: the partnership

1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and

Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

Place-based field work

Indo-Gangetic Plains:Parts of India, Bangladesh, NepalEast Africa:

Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia

West Africa:Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger

Progress

AdaptationTo ProgressiveClimate Change

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Integrate adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems into policy and institutional frameworks

Farms of the future

• The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

• Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

• Joint staff position between

CCAFS and GRiSP

• Breeders (CGIAR & NARES)

have met to set priorities

for this Objective

Climate Change and Rural Institutions

• DIIS – Danida-supported project• Improved adaptation to climate change

in rural areas can be enhanced through policy development that stimulates innovation among district-level institutional actors

Managing

Climate Risk

Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)

Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)

Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

Indexed insurance

• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance (with CRP2)

• Initial testing with ILRI in East Africa at dryland sites in Kenya and Ethiopia

Improved use of climate information by crisis response agencies

• WFP

• WMO

From satellite to cell phone?

Keny

a

Tanz

ania

Ugand

a

Ethi

opia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Male-headedFemale-headed

% of households

Pro-poor Mitigation

Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways

Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements

Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

Mitigation possibilities

• Synthesis reports and data for IPCC and national and regional bodies– Livestock, agriculture and forestry

(ILRI/ICRAF)– Aquaculture (WorldFish)

• Includes capacity building of decision makers in inventories and use of appropriate tools and data

Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa

What CCAFS outputs?

• Direct link between research and action

• Strong demand from carbon project managers

Why is it useful?

Carbon project action research

• Earthscan book of current knowledge (FAO)

• Network of PhDs on GHGs from agriculture (LIFE-facilitated)

• Series of activities on REDD+/forestry

IntegrationFor Decision-Making

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

Participatory Action Research

Select climate model (6 options

or their avg)

Select emission

s scenario(3 options)

Select the centre year of the time

slice

Select location Select the number of years of data desired

™

Downscaled climate data

International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security CAAS-IFPRI, Beijing, Nov

Report on “Climate Change and Food Security”

Cross-cutting principles

Building a user-driven agenda

• From large-scale stakeholder consultations

e.g. GCARD, regional meetings

• Specific exercises with selected groups

e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials

From local to regional to global

• Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond

• 30% of CCAFS research budget – mainstreamed

• Training Manual - How to carry out gender-responsive and socially-sensitive climate change research (FAO)

• “Gender teams” in PAR• Research grants to local

female PhD-level researchers looking at gender-CC issues

Social differentiation and gender

Outreach and communications

Measuring impact

Household survey: Covering 3 regions, 12 countries, 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households

What is it people are doing to adapt? What groups, information, services are they getting? Gender and age-disaggregated groups

www.ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys

http://amkn.org

The AMKN Platform

Portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge

AgClim Letters

• Strength through variety? Seed systems in future climates

• Earth is a small REDD+ planet• Adaptation: all talk and no

action?• Emissions efficiency: are some

animals more equal than others?• Fertilizing grounds for change in

Chinese agriculture• Hamburgers and yamburgers?

Four-degree futures for food in Africa

http://www.agricultureday.org/

Becoming the “GO-TO” place

CCAFS most radical reform of all CRPs

– Program Management Committee inc. non CGIAR personnel

– Independent Science Panel (strategy-based not Centre-specific mandate based)

– Competition for Lead Centre– 15 contributing Centers– Program Leader based ‘outside’ a

CGIAR centre– 30% budget to partners

• A new way of working – needs behavioral changes – CCAFS is a high risk strategy

• Boundary issues amongst CRPs

ChallengesLargest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries

Opportunities

The path forward

• Research by ILRI team for CCAFS Theme 4• Communications efforts led by CCAFS in collaboration with ICRAF, ILRI

and CIAT• Outreach, online promotion supported by many CG Centres and partners• Scientists across the CCAFS program gave media interviews in four

languages

The Result: • Online coverage at TIME.com, BBC, Guardian, Reuters, NatureNews, VOA,

and more…• Report downloaded 1038 times in first week• Traffic to CCAFS website increased by 500 in 1 week

See details at http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/climatehotspots

Mapping climate-induced food insecurity … together