cfs-cif e-lecture series 2020 the canadian forest service ... … · cfs-cif e-lecture series 2020...

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017

CFS-CIF E-lecture Series 2020

The Canadian Forest Service: Stories of Science Impacting

Practice

Steve D’Eon, KE Specialist

Canadian Forest Service,

Natural Resources Canada

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Disclaimer

The science in this presentation comes from researchers who

worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.

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Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy


Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: what are they, what are they good for?- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matter.

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Map: Parker et al, 2004, p.28

Range-wide P-test: Collect seed at many locations across a species’ range, plant at multiple sites, Include a local source at each planting site

Example of test site

Example of collection

What is a

Provenance trial?


5Front side of the collection card for seedlot s2444

s2444

Credit: Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC


6Front side of the collection card for seedlot s2444

s2444

Credit: Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC


Collected in 1956, sown in

1958, planted in various tests

including the 194 series.

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194 M-1

194 D-1


Some Range wide P-tests east of the Rockies

established by CFS

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Species Experiment Year # seedlots # sitesJack pine Exp 255 1966 99 17White spruce Exp 093 1958 30 13

Exp 194 1963 75 17Exp 410 1985 245 41

Black spruce Exp 353 1974 200 12Red spruce Exp 095 1959 19 14Tamarack Exp 424 1986 142 10Red pine Exp 074 1956 25

Exp 096 1958 18 7Exp 216 1960 8

White pine Exp 025 1943 42 14

s2444


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255 jack pine series

99 seed sources, 17 planting sites.

Map: Parker et al. 2006, p.3


One of the early results from provenance tests was to confirm the ‘local is best’ paradigm (but added ‘unless proven otherwise’)

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1929: “restrict the transport of seed to comparatively short distance.“ Bates For. Chron.Vol.5(1)

Impact from this science: confirming Local is Best


Local is Best Implemented using Seed Zones

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Reforestation system geared to seed zones

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Zone 30

Whole system to collect and process seed, grow seedlings, plant trees by seed zone


Questioning the Local is Best paradigm in a

changing climate

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1985: Will local be the best going forward? D.F.W.Pollard For. Chron. Vol.61(4)

1989: “Climatic warming will result in a northward relocation of the zone of maximum growth of a given tree species.” CIF brief to House of Commons. For. Chron. Vol.66(2)


2nd Impact from p-tests: Is Local Best in a changing climate?

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Matyas (1994) used data from 56 jack pine sources transferred to three Ontario

locations to demonstrate the possibility and limitations of using provenance tests in

climate change modeling.

Concept meeting Oct. 5,6 1999: Goal: “Scientifically develop predictive models quantifying the response of natural and planted forests to climate change.”

Lakehead University Bill Parker and students: 2001 measured 410 white spruce series, 2003 measured 353 black spruce series, 2005 measured the 255 jack pine series.


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Example: Best match for planting black spruce at Petawawa for the expected temps of 2040-2069 are seed sources from southern Ontario.

Credit: Parker et al. 2004, p.89

Petawawa

What is assisted migration and how do p-tests help address it?


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Example: Best sites for planting jack pine from Peterborough for the expected temps of 2040-2069 are north by several hundred km

What is assisted migration and how do p-tests help address it?

Credit: Parker et al. 2006, page 17


Impact: Policy Change

Climate Based Seed Transfer (CBST

Diane Nicholls Chief Forester, B.C., April, 2018

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“new seed transfer policy for the province ...which will update ....and advances in science and climate change modeling.Ken Elliot, OMNRF, 2017

Quebec's seed zones were updated to ecological regions and transfers 0.5o south and 1o north as well as 300 m of elevational change (Deshaies and Rainville2007).

Alberta revised its policy in 2009 to allow northward and upward transfers (Gray and Hamann 2011).


Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.

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19Back side of the collection card for seedlot s2444 shows who the seed was shared with

Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC


Reference Location Beachburg ranking based on tree height

Nienstaedt 1969

13 US sites

and one site in

N.B.

1st or 2nd at 9 of 14 sites at age 5 out of between

20 and 28 provenances. 4th (three sites), and 5th

and 8th at the other two sites.

Teich 1973 Canada1st to 3rd at age 10 out of between 31 and 55

sources planted at four sites.

Wilkinson 1977 Maine 2nd out of 24 provenances at age 15.

Genys & Nienstaedt 1978 Maryland 1st out of 24 provenances at age 20.

Hale 1979 Maine 10th out of 30 provenances at age 14.

Tebbetts 1981 Maine7th and 8th out of 37 provenances in a nursery

test, age 1 and 2.

Nienstaedt & Kang 1983 Michigan 1st out of 4 provenances at age 18.

Radsliff et al. 1983 Minnesota 1st out of 25 provenances at age 15.

Khalil 1985 Newfoundland 2nd out of 32 provenances at age 20.

Beaulieu 1996 Quebec2nd and 4th out of 20 provenances at age 14 at

two sites.

20Ranking of the s2444 /Beachburg seed source in various studies.


Back to Beachburg: 1970’s• Things had changed.

• Ottawa Valley White Spruce (OVWS) population.

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Photo Credit : Donnie McPhee, Don Leckie

Exp 410 G1, G2


22Back to Beachburg, 1974 Collection card for seedlot s8026.

s8026



23What happened between 1956 and 1970’s?


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Map: Lu et al. 2014

The 410 experiment included 245 sources with several from the Ottawa Valley

s8026


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Beachburg

Map: Lu et al. 2014

Results Early performance of seedlot s8026 in Ontario 410 provenance tests was consistently in the top quartile (top 25%).

Not as good as s2444.

s8026 grows about 5% slower than s2444

Ontario test locations 410 series


26How much faster does OVWS grow?

11% more volume/ha than the local seed source at age 44.

Morgenstern et al. For. Chron. 82(4)


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In an Upper Peninsula Michigan test of a simple design, white spruce of a Beachburg, Ontario provenance grew 17.5 percent taller

The fastest growing population in Maryland is of the Beachburg Ontario provenance. This provenance has been widely tested and has consistently been among the most productive.

Fowler and Coles (1977) have

described a program to develop a

source of Ottawa River Valley seeds in

the Maritimes.

On the basis of consistently good performance, a Beachburg, Ontario, source is recommended for use in Minnesota planting programs.

In the East, a source centered around Beachburg and Douglas in the Ottawa River Valley has proven superior in the Lake States, New England, and southern portions of the range in eastern Canada.

Impact: Inclusion in

tree breeding programs


Impact

• Beachburg/OVWS has proven to be a ‘robust’ performer (grows well in many regions).

• A single collection of tree seed in 1956 has led to millions of trees planted with genes from the OVWS population.

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Epilogue• Provenance tests give us the ability to model and evaluate

choices for planting trees adapted to the climate of the future.

• The robust ability of superior sources such as Beachburg/OVWS that grow well in many environments may take an even more prominent role in future reforestation/afforestation efforts in response to climate change.

• Original s2444 gene pool lost in-situ, ex-situ only conservation.

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Climate Change predictions from the

past: why they matter now.

The literature on climate change has grown exponentially. We will look at some predictions made in the early literature.

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Then 1987-95


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Harrington J. 1987. Climate change: a review of causes.

Can. J. For. Res. 17(11):1313-1339.

Figure 21

Jim stated he thought scenario 2a

(no coal phase out) would happen.

Projected 0.5C rise by 2019.


33Harrington J. 1987. Climate change: a review of causes.

Can. J. For. Res. 17(11):1313-1339.

What happened?

No coal phase out happened.

Existing warming by 2019 was

almost double than predicted

under no coal phase out.


Flannigan, M. and C.E. Van Wagner. 1991. Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 21(10): 66-72

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Flannigan and Van Wagner 1991 predicted a 46% increase in the area burned in a world with a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Area burned in Canada (ha)


Bergeron, Y. and M. Flannigan. 1995. Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the

southeastern Canadian boreal forest. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 82: 437-444.

35Area burned (ha) by year in western Canada

(dashed line) vs. eastern Canada (solid line) ten year

moving average

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bergeron and

Flannigan

1995

Predicted an

increase in

fire in the

west and a

decrease in

the east.


Wotton, M. and M. Flannigan. 1993. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For. Chron. 69(2): 187-192.

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Wotton and Flannigan 1993 predicted a 22% increase in fire season length under a doubling of atmospheric CO2


In Fire Trends 1959-2015, researchers Charlene Hanes and Xianli Wang confirmed:

✓ The fire season is getting longer by an average of almost two weeks.

✓ Nationally, the results show that area burned has almost tripled since 1959,

✓ In general, increased trends in area burned, number of large fires and lightning caused fires are more prevalent in the West,

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Why should you care about forest fire

research started in the 1920’s?The origins of forest fire research in Canada set the direction of the Canadian system.

• Modularity

• Empirical data

• Tech transfer

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Sometimes

experiments

get hot.

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1960’s

experimental fire

Follow the

dedicated student

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Van Wagner, 1987 Climate change could shake

fire management to its foundation.

• In speaking about CC and fire regimes in 1987: “The outcome could range all the way from an increase in seasonal severity well within the present range to a challenge so profound as to shake fire management to its foundation.”http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/23548.pdf page 119.

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http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/23548.pdf


If researchers were right before, what are

researchers predicting now?

• Crown fires more likely • Days when fire intensities could exceed the capabilities of suppression resources (even airtankers) increases substantially• Increased number of fires• Increased incidence of unmanageable crown fire.

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Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017 Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003


what are the predictions now?Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017. Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression

thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003

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Figure 5. Percent change from baseline period in the mean number of days where fireline intensity (at the head of a fire) exceeds 10 MW m1 for the RCP8.5 scenario. >10Mwm1 airtankers are not effective. Red in the right hand figure indicates going from 8 days to 52 days.

baseline period (1971–2000).

HadGEM22021-2040

HadGEM22081-2099


48Where are we today: Learning all the time

Slave Lake, Ft McMurray, Calif. , Australia


Recap CFS science impacting practices.- Provenance Trials (est. 1950’s to 1970’s) leading to existing and potential

improvements in practices re climate change adaptation.

- The predictions CFS scientists made (late 1980’s-90’s) in the past were

valid so we probably should heed the current predictions.

- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system set us up to do our

best in a coming era of ‘unmanageable fire’.

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publications

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Disclaimer

The science in this presentation came from researchers who

worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.

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Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy


Thank You

Steve.deon @ canada.ca

613 639-1037

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