cesm societal dimensions working group · cesm simulations to inform water management coordination...

CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e

CESM Societal Dimensions

Working Group

CESM Advisory Board Update

Co-chairs:

Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Bill Collins (LBNL)

Bill Gutowski (ISU) Brian O’Neill (NCAR)

February 27-28, 2013


Outline

Process: formation, participation, progress

Water: original goals, progress to date

IAM: original goals, progress to date

Challenges, next steps


SDWG Background

Growing interest within CCSM/CESM to better connect the

modeling activity to climate-related societal issues

Initial meeting at the 2010 CCSM Workshop

May 2011 scoping workshop & White Paper

July 2011 Working Group approved by CCSM SSC

Three open working group meetings to date


Chemistry

Climate

BioGeo

Chem

Software Engineering

Variability & Change

Polar

Climate

Land

Model

PaleoClimate

Ocean

Model

CESM Structure

WACCM

Lnd Ice

Atm

Model

CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy

CESM Scientific Steering Committee

(Marika Holland, Chief Scientist)

CESM Advisory Board

CESM Management

Working Groups Development Application

Societal Dimensions


CESM and Societal Dimensions

CESM

WATER IA

Develop collaborations between the CESM community & those

working on issues relating societal dimensions and climate change


Meetings

Winter meetings back-to-back-to-back with LMWG, BGCWG (last year also with Chem-Clim)

½ day overlap – joint session with LMWG

Substantial participation

Winter 2012 ~30

Breckenridge 2012 ~70

Winter 2013 ~40

Meeting style: mixed bottom-up & top-down

Bottom up: communicate work on any relevant topics with a societal dimension

Top down: focus on highest priority areas, as identified by community


Selected Participants IAM groups

NCAR MIT PBL/IMAGE

JGCRI/DOE IIASA

Impact modelers

Stanford GISS/AgMIP CLM modelers

Univ Illinois Purdue/GTAP

Water Stakeholders

Tampa Bay Water Denver Water

SF Public Utilities Commission US Bureau of Reclamation

US Army Corps of Engineers

Water Scientists

NCAR Iowa State University DOE/PNNL


Interaction with community

Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)

2 general presentations, iESM special session

Latin America Modeling Project

Planned participation of SDWG in providing simulations, participating in land use uncertainty comparison

Agricultural Model Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP)

SDWG participants also participate in global and (future) N. American activities; AgMIP talks at SDWG

North-American CORDEX

Water special session on connecting the global CESM scales to the regional/local decision scales via downscaling, a goal of CORDEX


SDWG Proposed Water Runs:

Improving CESM Hydrology by reducing model uncertainty and bias

(Community Runs 2A1, 2A2)

Providing relevant Hydroclimate variables for downscaling & decision making

(Community Runs 2A4, 2B1)

Simulating the impacts of climate change on important precipitation

systems, focusing on short timescales, extremes & means,

4AB American monsoon and Droughts in the American southwest

only received part of request, address 4AB through existing runs


SDWG IAM Runs:

IAM: Linking new CLM Agricultural, Forest Systems & Ecosystem Dynamics

and Integrated Assessment Modeling (1A, 1B)

3A. interpreting IA model land use scenarios in CESM,

3B. assessing the importance of regional climate feedbacks,

3C. assessing the importance of model coupling, and

3D. evaluating possible future activities in the area of air quality.


Successful funding proposals

NSF EaSM2, Water: Advanced Climate and Regional Model

Validation for Societal Applications: Bridging the global

modeling & decision scales.

NCAR, Iowa State University, Water Utility Climate Alliance

NSF EaSM2, IAM: Linking IAMs and CESM to assess impacts

on urban, agricultural, and forest areas

NCAR, Univ. Illinois, Univ. Kansas, Arizona State Univ.


Water: Goals and Activities

Goals

Improved understanding and simulation of climate impacts on hydrology

Making CESM research and output more relevant to water sector

Challenges

Single model vs. multi-model frameworks

High resolution

Hydrological modeling

Types of Activities

Pilot project: CESM simulations to inform water management

Develop best practices for improving science-planning interface

Contributing to Climate Services development

Source: White Paper on Societal Dimensions of Earth System Modeling.


Water: Progress

CESM simulations to inform water management

Coordination with CORDEX to provide regional climate change

information and data for impacts assessment, operations

planning and policy

Improving science-planning interface

Development of metrics for evaluating CESM hydrology for use

in operational planning

Long-term engagement between the research and

applications community


Water: Research Questions

How can we make "better" methodological choices in impact assessments, and how is climate information used to inform decision-making and planning?

How does our portrayal of uncertainty depend on these methodological choices?

How do we do the hydrological modeling, in terms of choice/construction of forcing datasets, hydrologic model(s), and calibration methods?

Is the portrayal of impacts consistent with our understanding of the system?

How does expert knowledge enter into the decision-making and planning processes of the different water management agencies?

What are the best approaches for bridging scales from global CESM modeling to regional and local decisions?


IAM: Goals

“improving understanding of interactions between human and

Earth systems, in a manner that builds the capacity of both

the CESM and the IAM community.”

“It is possible that a long-term “backbone activity” – such as

development of capacity for full linkage between CESM and

IAMs – would be a useful component of the group.”

“leverage existing activities in the research community and look

for key opportunities to add value” (RCP/CMIP5, EMF, iESM,

AgMIP)

“include participation from the impacts, adaptation and

vulnerability (IAV) community”



IAM topics of interest

Land use

Air quality, climate, and impacts

Urbanization and health impacts

Reduced-form models of CESM

Coastal inundation and sea level rise

Methodological issues (uncertainty, scale)

CH4, N2O modeling

Poverty, land degradation

Water in IAMs



IAM: Types of Activities

“provide a forum for shared experiences, learning and

collaboration among IAM groups already interacting with

CESM, or interested in doing so.”

“identify and carry out analyses of broad use to the

community that involved both CESM and IAMs”

“develop and facilitate less computationally intensive

versions of CESM for use in IA modeling”

“provide software infrastructure development that

facilitates the integration of IAMs and CESM”


iESM multi-phase coupling strategy

GCAM CLM/CESM GLM

Climate

C stocks,

productivity

Up/down scaling

(space and time)

Fossil fuel

emissions

GHGs, Aerosols, etc

iESM Experiment 0 (RCP 4.5)

iESM

Experiment 1

Terrestrial

Feedbacks

iESM experiment 0: Bioenergy scenarios with one-way coupling

Information flow: IA to downscaling to Earth System Model

Sanity check: Does the one-way pass of information replicate the original RCP4.5 simulation done in CMIP5?

Policy sensitivity: For different policy but same concentration pathway, does the evolution of the climate system differ?

Experiment 0: Contrast two pathways:

RCP4.5 – carbon price on all carbon (UCT)

RCP4.5 – carbon price ONLY on fossil carbon (FFICT)

Janetos, Jones, et al, 2012

Jones et al, 2012


20

Temperature

change from first

(2005-2015) to

last (2091-2100)

decade

Global Mean Temp Change

Annual 2m Temp

RCP 4.5

RCP 4.5

Alternative

LU Policy

Source: Andy Jones. LBL.

Experiment 1.2 underway

Experiment includes feedbacks on land productivity from CLM to GCAM.

These feedbacks alter agriculturally-driven land allocation in GCAM.

This experiment has illuminated many issues with the RCP conceptual framework and implementation in AR5.

However, the team is still working to reconcile:

Three different representations of plants and crops in GCAM, GLM, and CLM.

Three different treatments of the carbon cycle in the same models.

The team is confident these issues can be resolved.


Impact & Adaptation

Assessment

iPETS Integrated

Assessment

Model

CESM Community

Earth

System Model

THESIS Toolbox for Human-Earth System

Integration & Scaling

Data Human

System

Data Earth System

Human

System

Earth

System

urban

agriculture

forests

Impacts

Visualization

& Decision

Support

Evaluation &

Uncertainty

Analysis

EaSM2 Proposal. PI: O’Neill (NCAR); Co-PIs: Lawrence, Levis, Oleson (NCAR),

Feddema (U. Kansas), Jain (U. Illinois), Barton (ASU)

Your

Favorite


THESIS: Cropland spatial allocation

Preliminary

Meiyappan et

al., in

preparation


Units: % of

grid cell area

Year: 1900

Model

Initialization

Year: 2005

Satellite Map

Year: 2005

Model Predicted

THESIS: Cropland spatial allocation Preliminary

Meiyappan et

al., in

preparation

Software Infrastructure: The iESM Coupling

Diagram

6

GLM2IAC

IAC2GLM

2

5

GCAM2GLM

GLM2GCAM

1

IAC2GCAM

GCAM2IAC

4

3

IAM (currently

GCAM)

GLM (Downscaling)

CLM (Land Model)

Coupler Input Output Status

1 IAM Downscaling Running

2 Downscaling Land Model Running

3 Land Model IAM Running

4 IAM Land Model Coded

5 Downscaling IAM Coded

6 Land Model Downscaling Coded

Software Infrastructure: Extended Coupling?

6

GLM2IAC

IAC2GLM

2

5

GCAM2GLM

GLM2GCAM

1

IAC2GCAM

GCAM2IAC

4

3

IAM (currently

GCAM)

GLM (Downscaling)

CLM (Land Model)

IAM<->Ag

IAM<->Urban

IAC2IAM

IAM2IAC

IAM

Ag Tool

CLM (Land Model)

Urban Tool

Impacts Tool IAM<->Impacts

Impacts<->IAC

Urban<->IAC

Ag<->IAC

Coupler

Model Linking Development Process – SDWG?

Model release (with linking

functionality) Detailed model assessment

(identify strengths and weaknesses)

SDWG members develop or modify

linking capacity

Present ideas/results at SDWG meetings

Publish papers

Plans for next (and next next) model

version discussed at SDWG meetings

Build and test beta version of offline model

Finalize and test within

CESM Use model for

scientific studies

WG evaluates and approves new or

alternative linkages

Document; Control

integrations

Community review?

SSC approval


Coordinated Analysis

Development Productivity Land Use

Change

Cost of land expansion

Input substitution

Demand response

International trade

Yield response to

investment

Policies

Management

Climate/CO2

Emissions,

Forcing

Climate

Change

Land cover

Vegetation dynamics

BGC

Albedo

Hydrologic response

Regional climate

dynamics

Climate sensitivity

Latin America Modeling Project (LAMP)


Land price response

Investment-yield response

Emission factors

Input substitution

“SIMPLE” sensitivity analysis

Source: Hertel, SDWG, 2013.


Next steps

Continued development and use of iESM and THESIS linking tools

Coordinated Latin America land use activity

Breckenridge session on new scenarios and implications for CMIP6

Coordination with ongoing USACE/USBR/NCAR research on downscaling for hydrologic applications

Coordination with CORDEX to provide regional climate change information and data for impacts assessment, operations planning and policy


Challenges

Expanding participation

Aim to expand participation of impacts modelers

Identify funding for additional participants?

Foster growth as progress generates expanding interest

Expand topics covered without losing focus

Dovetailing with existing programs of participants (e.g., CORDEX)

Liaison

Greatly limits ability of group to perform simulations, facilitate

activities and interaction with community

Position description provided to SSC Oct. 2012


SDWG Benefits to CESM

Adding IAM functionality to CESM; code infrastructure for model linkages

Cross-WG interactions, especially with LMWG, BGCWG

New scientific communities interacting with CESM

Input to CMIP6 design to account for new socio-economic scenarios, new IAM capabilities; input to CESM features for CMIP6 simulations

Metrics for evaluating other components (e.g., CLM runoff metrics for water applications)

Stimulating/reinforcing need for particular model improvements, e.g. tropical crop/grass PFTs and dynamic urban areas in CLM


The End

cesm societal dimensions working group · cesm simulations to inform water management coordination...

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