CESConsumer Electronics Show

The Next Big Thing

Mobile Video

Single task – can’t do something else while doing this

Where will users get content? Install base potential? Cell phone: 180

million in U.S. Towers have 3G capability

Digital Rights Management – “nightmare for consumers”

Citizen media – blogs, podcasts don’t face DRM hurdles

Mobile Video

Who will drive this? Movies – 12% TV – 57% Gaming – 20% Citizen media – 11%

Mobile Video

Biggest hurdle: Screen size – 18% Content availability – 40% High speed communication limits –

21% DRM – 21%

Mobile Video

What will win Phone – 44% Media specific device – 16% Converged device (Treo, PSP-

PlayStation Portable) – 40%

Mobile Video TV – users don’t want to miss anything Content from any era at any time User doesn’t want to pay for content

twice – DRM for video is much more restrictive than other media at the moment.

There will not be only one model. People want downloaded, stored media AND streaming media on demand.

Blue Ray vs HD-DVD DVD in current format doesn’t do HDTV Blue Ray 25-50 GB (more capability for

additional content?) HD-DVD – 15-30 GB (although new

development of triple layer HD-DVD allows 15-45 GB

Blue Ray getting majority of support Format war keeps consumer wallets shut Blueray requires a more expensive re-

tool for equipment producers

Blue Ray vs HD-DVD

What do you want to do: Watch – 61% Record – 25% Burn data – 11% Dub old DVDs/Videos – 3%

Blue Ray vs HD-DVD

What is in the way? Not an HD household yet – 28% Quality not driver – 18% Format war – 29% Cost – 25%

Blue Ray vs HD-DVD

Which will win Blue Ray – 55% HD-DVD – 17% Stalemate – 28%

Blue Ray vs HD-DVD

VHS, DVD, HD-DVD - All will be backward compatible

High fidelity is a motivation People will watch anything if hi-

def. Modest increase for HD media over

current cost

Home Entertainment Network/Hub

March to the living room Media Center PC – Microsoft – serves

content to other units Network savvy separates – harder Network headaches are a big

roadblock Fidelity issues – hubs must scale

down content to be transmittable.

Home Entertainment Network/Hub

What will you use this for? Music – 33% Photos – 5% Video – 62%

Home Entertainment Network/Hub

What will hold you back? DRM – 5% Different setup – 67% No HDTV – 15%

Home Entertainment Network/Hub

What model will you use? Network DVR/Tivo – 49% Media Center PC – 42% Networked DVD – 9%

Home Entertainment Network/Hub Video is the real issue. The ability to distribute

audio via networking has been solved in many homes already

Home networking is moving ahead HDTV and home media hub technologies are

evolving in parallel – not together but side by side DRM will get there - translators being developed Tangibility of media – virtual access a roadblock –

important to users not but not important to future users (e.g. magazine databases)