ces 2015 wrap-up: not just gadgets and gizmos 2015...fung business intelligence centre retail &...

1 Fung business intelligence centre retail & technology publication: CES Wrapup Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

Global Retail & Technology flash report January 15, 2015

January 15, 2015

CES 2015 Wrap-Up: Not Just Gadgets and Gizmos

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r – H e a d G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7



CES 2015 Wrap-Up: Not Just Gadgets and Gizmos We made it through CES this year, without getting too distracted by all the gadgets and gizmos. This year, CES really was a gadget show, introducing brand-‐new technology for the house, car, body, flying drones, and whiz-‐bang new high-‐res TVs. Intel’s CEO believes that we are at the forefront of a multiyear technology boom, similar to the time right before the Internet boom. There was a great deal of raw new technology, such as the 3D cameras and biometric technology in Intel’s demo, which will find its way into new applications and products over the next couple of years. The two most over-‐represented product categories at the show seemed to be wearables and Internet-‐of-‐Things gadgets. 1. INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT): CARS, AND SMART HOMES The concept of IoT has evolved from wacky gadgets like Internet-‐connected coffee makers and door locks to more practical items used in autos and homes. It is notable that every major automobile manufacturer was present at CES, and Ford’s CEO gave a major keynote address. Volkswagen said that their aim is to provide a simple interface for all the actions in a car, even if all the underlying technology is complex. The automobile is just one more place where we can use our technology and consume content, and automakers want to offer a seamless experience. In some cases, the vehicle is already an electronic device, as in the case of Gogoro Smartscooters and Tesla electric cars. There were numerous vendors offering connected lighting, door locks, webcams, and temperature sensors at CES. We saw an innovative product from a startup offering a stick-‐on controller for air conditioners. Still, this is a very fragmented landscape, and each solution requires its own device that plugs into your router to communicate with the device. A shakeout here is likely, with the winners embracing interoperability standards. Although Bluetooth is normally considered a technology for connecting computer mice, keyboards, and headphones, the new low-‐power versions are likely to form the nervous system of IoT. 2. 3D TECH MAY FINALLY BE HERE With the advent of Intel’s RealSense camera, the age of 3D may finally be here for the rest of us. Intel’s camera enables the selection of the area of focus in a photograph, facial recognition, using gestures to control a PC, in addition to 3D scanning for 3D design and printing. Now there is a consumer product for 3D input, and prices for 3D printers and consumables should continue to move into the consumer price range. At the show, we saw several innovative 3D printers, including one that used paper as its raw material, cutting the printing cost by 75%, and remaining eco-‐friendly. 3. WEARABLES, WEARABLES EVERYWHERE There was a preponderance of wearable everything at this year’s CES show. There were wearable wristbands, fitness and health monitors, earbuds, glasses and goggles, outerwear, and even socks with embedded sensors for runners. This product category is begging for a shakeout, since many of the functions are duplicated within smartphones and smartwatches. Although many of the consumer products are likely to be left in the drawer, medical and industrial could provide the true opportunities for killer apps in wearables.



4. AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY: GETTING THE BUGS OUT We saw several demonstrations of augmented and virtual reality, from Home Depot showing its VR system to a startup showing a 360-‐degree camera and image-‐editing software. We think the best applications for this technology still are in gaming. We saw a marksman system with 3D goggles, and a 3D shooter app with a detector to measure the shooter’s walking within the arena drew a huge crowd on the show floor. 5. SLING AND THE CABLE WARS Dish announced a non-‐gadget at CES: a $20-‐a-‐month streaming TV service called Sling TV. Channels such as ESPN, CNN, TNT, TBS, and Food Network have already signed on, and the service will run on several types of hardware, including some smart TVs, Roku, Amazon Fire TV (and Fire Stick), Xbox One, Nexus Player, Android TV and on both Android and iOS. Cable cutters will likely welcome the announcement, and it will intensify the ongoing shakeout between the content providers and the cable companies, as evidenced by HBO’s announcement of plans to offer a streaming service. 6. SEND IN THE DRONES There was much buzz surrounding drones at the show and a killer demo from Intel, however drones still seem to belong to the niche toy category. Whereas most drones use the Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, Intel’s demo made use of its 3D camera technology to enable it to avoid obstacles “on the fly.” The drone successfully navigated an obstacle course and stopped before a pair of closed doors. While drones have their uses as tech curiosities and for aerial photography, we think the technology will need some work before we receive our purchases from Amazon on our building’s landing pad. 7. COOL STARTUPS We saw several innovative startups, particularly in the Eureka Park area, including many from Israel. We expect the network of innovation labs, incubators, accelerators, and angels to continue to fund even more exciting startups. Categories such as the Internet of Things have relatively low entry barriers, opening the door to a host of new companies launched in founders’ garages. If we are indeed at the cusp of a 10-‐15 year technology boom, we should expect much more from this space. 8. TECH HAS LIMITATIONS, THOUGH … While CES is a technology show, it also makes the limitations of technology painfully clear. Although cellphone service worked well, Wi-‐Fi was unavailable in many common areas, the batteries in our cellphones ran out towards the end of the day (even earlier if we were sending photos), and one of our iPads gave up the ghost. Even Intel’s CEO had a technology glitch during his keynote address and demonstration. 9. … BUT WILL ALSO BRING REAL BENEFITS The gadgets and gizmos are fun, but there were many products launched at CES that will better peoples’ lives. In particular, we saw a hearing aid from a Danish company that offers a Bluetooth connection to a cellphone, as well as an external adapter for TV listening. People will benefit immensely and lives will be saved from the explosion of fitness trackers, glucometers, heart monitors, and other health-‐related products that were demonstrated at the show.



10. FINALLY, THERE IS NO DOUBT WE ARE IN THE AGE OF MACHINE LEARNING AND CONNECTED EVERYTHING. From automated cars to safety-‐focused wearables, the key to innovation comes as machine learning becomes increasingly sophisticated, through continued trial and error methods such as neural networks—adjusting until the object “remembers” what works and what doesn’t—and cloud-‐based knowledge—allowing increased access of shared information. As sensors become smaller and the ability to use them in multiple objects increases, digital interaction between products becomes easier. The ensuing technological advances have caused a shift in consumer behavior and expectation, as former “scifi” abilities become not only mainstream, but absolutely expected.

Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director – Head Global Retail and Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre Global (FBIC Global) New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: +852 6119 1779 [email protected] Marie Driscoll, CFA [email protected] Christine Haggerty [email protected] John Harmon, CFA [email protected] Amy Hedrick [email protected] Fong Lau [email protected] Lan Rosengard [email protected] Jing Wang [email protected]

ces 2015 wrap-up: not just gadgets and gizmos 2015...fung business intelligence centre retail &...

Documents