ceo sustainability club luxembourg presentation olivia walker - frost&sullivan
TRANSCRIPT
Mega Trends Driving Change in Business Environments Macro to Micro Implications of Global Mega Trends
What is a Mega Trend?
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Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and
personal lives.
Connectivity and Convergence
Cognitive Era Bricks and Clicks Smart is the New Green
New Societies
Health, Wellness, and
Welllbeing
New Business Models
Urbanisation Future of Infrastructure
Innovating to Zero
Future of EnergyNew Markets
Beyond BRICSsFuture of Mobility
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News Headlines in 2030
Robots enter our personal lives.
Sensory devices guide our everyday lives.
Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies.
We enter cognitive era
3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining
mainstream acceptance .
EU signs agreement to introduce a high speed rail
service from London to Beijing.
Autonomous cars on the roadSummer Sale: Low-cost
holidays in space.
Connectivity and Convergence
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10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by 2020
5 connected devices for every user by 2020
500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
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Gen
erat
ion
D
evic
e Sp
ecif
icat
ion
s
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G
Less than 1 millisecond Latency
90% Energy
savings
0 perceived down
time for service
provision
7 trillion M2M wireless connections
5G Targets
5G Rollout in Europe: Road Map and Vision European Commission has signed strategic deals with Asian market leaders in 5G technology, Japan and South
Korea and China to rollout 5G by 2020
Analog Voice Calls
Speed: 50 KBPS
Digital Voice Calls
Speed: 250 KBPS
Data
Bandwidth: 20 MBPS
Video Streaming
Bandwidth: 200 MBPS
M2M
Bandwidth: 10 GBPS
559
225
107
102
220
365
129
73
71
327
R&D Reconnaissance Navigation Earth Observaion Communication
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59
218
354
161 164
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Heavy5,400kg+
Large4,200-
5,400 kg
Medium2,500-4,200
kg
Small500-
2,500 kg
Micro100-
500 kg
Mini10-100 kg
Pico0.1-1 kg
Nano1-10 kg
Sub-Trend: Space Jam There will be 1,213 Satellites Launched, Cumulatively, Globally by 2021.
1,213
965
2011* 2021*
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
*Note: The numbers refer to accumulated number of satellites to be launched in the period 2012 to 2021 cumulatively
Sub Trend: Augmented RealityAugmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.
Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World
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Sub Trend: Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences
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Case Study on Future of Education: ‘Flipped Classroom’ (Khan Academy)
Lecture today; Classwork Tomorrow
Lecture Online; Classwork Today
Teacher – speaks in the classroom
Teacher – helps in the classroom
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Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart is theNew Green
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Smart Technology
Smart Buildings
Smart MobilitySmart
WindowsSmart CloudsLEVEL 3
Sensing Mechanism +
Two-way Flow of Data
Communication
Smart Chip Smart LightingLEVEL 2
Basic Sensing Mechanism + One-way Data
Communication
Smart Bandages
LEVEL 1
Basic Sensing Mechanism
Image Source: Dreamstime and Connected Digital World Source: Frost & Sullivan
A smart product is
characterized by an intelligent sensing technology that is
increasingly being integrated with Internet technologies, thereby
allowing the product to react to and communicate with the changing
environment around it. This leads to optimal operations and
improvement in efficiency.
Smart is the New Green—3 Levels of Smart Products and Technologies
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Selected Smart Cities in 2025
Global Smart CitiesOver 26 Global Cities to be Truly SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart
cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America
Source: Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan
Toronto
San Francisco
Vancouver
Paris
BostonNew York
London Berlin
Barcelona
Amsterdam
Seattle
Tokyo
Singapore
Calgary
Chicago
Vienna
Helsinki
Oslo
Seoul
Beijing
Tianjin
Wuhan
Helsinki
Sydney
Shenzhen
Stockholm
Santander (upcoming)
Smart Buildings—The Triple Zero Architecture of the Future
Smart buildings are green, energy efficient, and intelligent, with advanced automated infrastructure that controls and manages aspects, such as lighting, temperature & energy consumption, independently or with minimal human intervention.
CommercialResidential
Building Automation SystemsReduction in energy consumption up to 30%
Smart MetersLighting
HVAC ControlsEnergy Management
Energy Efficiency
Image Source: Dreamstime
Source: Frost & Sullivan
HVAC—Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning EMS—Energy management system
Electronic Article Surveillance Systems
Contraband Detection Systems CCTV
Automotive Security systems
Electronic Security Systems
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Sub-Trend - Industry 4.0 Creates New Smarter Factories4th industrial revolution will expand mobile robot applications in the smart factory from playing
mundane jobs like assembly to building sophisticated machinery in production floors
Illustrating the role of Cloud Robotics in Industry 4.0
Industry 4.0
• Internet of Things
• Cloud platforms
• Wireless intelligence
• Integrated Industries
• IP centralization
• Big Data
Industry 4.0 benefits
• Newer insights on factory operations• Real time trajectory of business• Insights on customers• Sustainable manufacturing
Algorithmic learning & data
enhancing
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Future of Mobility
1717
DEMAND RESPONSIVE TRANSPORT (TAXI, BRT)
CONNECTED LIVING (including
car)
INTERCITY PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
CAR LEASING
CAR RENTAL
CAR SHARING & POOLING
INTRACITY PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
PHYD INSURANCE
DYNAMIC PARKING
CONCIERGE SERVICES
ENERGY MANAGEMENT
MICRO-MOBILITY SOLUTIONS
TRAINS/FLIGHTS INTEGRATION
APPS, JOURNEY PLANNING, BIG
DATA
Mobility Configuration will Drive Energy Saving in TransportationIn Future Industry Stakeholders Will Showcase Mobility Integration
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The Future of Mobility will be Smart
Micro-mobility
Integrated mobility
Global car sharing
Parking management Zero emission taxisNew business models
Connected/autonomous transport
Telematics based insurance
Alternative fuels
Demand Response Management
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Demand Responsive Transport Solutions Remove Inefficiency
“Fixed” Carpooling
Instant – Short Distance
Planned – Long Distance
Higher Price per KM
Lower Price per KM
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
“On Demand” Carpooling
“Taxi” ServicesPublic Transport
“Transportation Network Companies”
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Urban Transhipment Areas
Urban Consolidation Centres
Urban Intermodal Hubs
Locker BoxesMicrodistribution
Mobile Depots / Freight Buses
Sub Trend: Future of Consolidation and Last Mile DeliveryMore Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban
Areas
Types of Urban Distribution
Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries
One Hour Deliveries Click ‘n’ Collect
Future of Infrastructure
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In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities and Countries but will also Connect Continents
• China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010)• 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66• Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR• UK project: £33 billion (by 2026)
What are the Opportunities?
• High Speed Logistics• Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires• Steel Companies• Construction tooling, spare parts• Condition monitoring, security, surveillance, • Data handling, Passenger information
systems• Mergers and Acquisitions
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Future of Energy
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Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Tackle Carbon Reduction
Energy Efficiency and SMART Buildings
LED Lighting Revolution
Small Scale Distributed Generation
SMART Grid & SMART Energy
Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage
SMART Water Networks
RenewablesEnergy
HarvestingEnergy Recovery from
WasteGas-fired Power &
Shale Gas Exploitation
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Urbanisation
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Mega CitiesMega
Regions
Mega Corridor
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Smart and Sustainable
Cities
Implication : Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
New York City, with a GDP of $1.28 trillion, which is the equivalent of being the 15th largest country in the world, close in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12 trillion).
Cities like Istanbul in Turkey will account for more than 22% of country’s GDP
What are the Micro Implications?
High Economic PowerHub and Spoke Business ModelPilot Project ApproachNew Mobility SolutionsCity as a Customer
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Suppliers
Manufacturers
Retailers
Consumers
Landfill/Waste Management
Linear Economy
Circular Economy
Reuse/ Redistribute
Refurbish/ Remanufacture
Recycle
$700 billionin consumer goods
material savings
$1.80 trillion per annum savings in avoiding waste in
textiles
$1.50 billion in collecting
household food waste annually in
the United Kingdom
Savings in reusing/refurbishing/ recycling
Source: ESA; Ellen MacArthur Foundation; Frost & Sullivan
New Avenues for Resources: Circular EconomyThe circular economy will promote efficient use of resources, provide greener production, and
support resource optimization, with an opportunity in excess of $1 trillion for the global economy.
Circular economy refers to an industrial economy that, contrary to a traditional linear economy, reclaims used materials and recycles them as secondary raw materials for new products.
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Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega TrendSelected trends that impacts key
business environments
Sub TrendA sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your IndustryVisualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
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