Central Asia experiences In

drought management

Bratislava

October, 2012

Vadim Sokolov, Galina Stulina

GPW, SIC ICWC

Central Asia

Central Asia is region, where drought is routine condition of life and crop production and agricultural production are adapted to such enormous climatic conditions.

The Basic Indicators of Water and Land

Resources Development in the Aral Sea Basin

Indicator Unit 1960 1980 1990 2010 Forecast (2020) Optimistic Pessimistic

Population

Irrigated area

Irrigated area per capita

Total water withdrawal

Including for irrigation

Specific withdrawal per 1 hectare

Specific withdrawal per capita

GNP

million

thousand

hectares

ha/capita

km3/year

km3/year

m3/ha

m3/capita

bln.USD

14,4

4510

0,32

60,61

56,15

12450

4270

16,1

26,8

6920

0,26

120,69

106,79

15430

4500

48,1

33,6

7600

0,23

116,27

106,4

14000

3460

74,0

48.5

8201

0.17

109.5

91.6

11171

2259

76.7

54,0

9330

0,17

104,5

86,8

9300

1935

109

70,0

9300

0,12

117,0

96,7

10400

1670

77,0

b) Climate change

Uzhydromet

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Ano1320 > 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100100 - 120120 - 140 >160

N

EW

S

Long-term changes of the annual sums of precipitations

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

Ant13200-1.2-0.8-0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6

N

EW

S

evaporation

Regional indicators of change of a climate

Annual national temperatures increased by:

• 0.29 0C every 10 years in Uzbekistan (1950–2005);

• 0.26 0C every 10 years in Kazakhstan (1936–2005);

• 0.18 0C every 10 years in Turkmenistan (1961–1995);

• 0.10 0C every 10 years in Tajikistan (1940–2005);

• 0.08 0C every 10 years in Kyrgyzstan (1883–2005).

Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Средний период повторения маловодья

4,25 года

км

3

1945-1965

Средний

уровень

Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Средний период повторения маловодья

3 года

км

31980-2004

Средний

уровень

Extreme events

occurrence

Total Runoff of

Naryn, Karadarya

and Chirchik Rivers

Frequency of dry

year occurrence is

4.25 year on average

Frequency of dry year

occurrence is 3 year on

average

Amu Darya River

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

mln

.m3

Pyandj+Vaksh Kerki Tuyamuyun Chatly

Syr Darya River

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

193

2

193

5

193

8

194

1

194

4

194

7

195

0

195

3

195

6

195

9

196

2

196

5

196

8

197

1

197

4

197

7

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

mln

.m3

Total w ater resources Kal Bekabad

c) Anthropogenic drought

Most

dangerous type

of drought it’s

anthropogenic,

manmade,

which is

caused by

wrong methods

of water

managing,

allocation and

operation.

Change in landscape on the exposed bed of the Aral Sea

Amudarya channel

Change in vegetation. Withered trees and bushes

Tamarix Populus Asiana

•Public Awareness •Adaptation

Principal directions of Climate changes program in Central Asia

Forecasting activity and broad information allow designing and implementing adaptive complex.

All adaptation measures related to agriculture and

water should be divided on three levels: • national measures, including strategy; • regional measures (taking into account

transboundary waters); • local level, especially farm level - adaptive response.

И зм е н е н и е п р о до лж и т е ль н о с т и п е р и о да в е г е т а ц и и х ло п ч а т н и к а

( С р е дн е г о с о р т а )

2 0

1 6

4 3

4 3

2 9

3 0

4 8

4 5

2 1

1 9

0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

Б а зо в ы й

П о п р о г н о зу H a dC M 2 н а у р о в е н ь

2 0 2 0 г .

С е в - в с х о ды

В с х о ды - б у т о н и за ц и я

Б у т о н и за ц и я - ц в е т е н и е

Ц в е т е н и е р а с к р ы т и е 1 - ы х к о р о б о ч е к

Р а с к р ы т и е 1 - ы х к о р о б о ч е к с о зр е в а н и е 7 0 % к о р о б о ч е к

Change of growing period

Скороспелые сорта

0

50

Фенологическая фаза

Дн

и

Базовый

вариант

19 43 28 42

Изменение

климата

15 40 29 39

Сев- Всходы-

Change in vegetation cover

early ripening

variety

late ripening variety

Base option

Climate change

Base option

Climate change

Early ripening variety

0

50

Phenological phase

Da

ys

Base option 19 43 28 42

Climate change 15 40 29 39

Soving- Sprouting- Budding Flowering-

Late ripening variety

0

20

40

60

80

Phenological phase

Da

ys

Base option 20 47 30 64

Climate change 16 46 30 56

Soving-

sprouting

Sprouting-

buddingBudding

Flowering-

opening

25-Jan

4-Feb

14-Feb24-Feb

5-Mar

15-Mar

25-Mar4-Apr

14-Apr

24-Apr

0 5 10 15 20

(оС)

date

Ташкент Ср Ташкент 1 Карши Ср Карши 1

Crossing over

the Limits

Established for

Air

Temperatures

Ср – present conditions, 1 – under climate changes: using data of

weather stations in Tashkent and Kashkadarya provinces)

Tashkent average

Flow Measurement

Practices used by farmers

Practices used by farmers

Water monitoring

and management

Traditional method of water saving in time of drought is “alternative” irrigation - water is applied not to each furrow, but to every other one

Water productivity

Irrigation schemes

Inflow (growing season)

Inflow changes

against the control

Yield Yield changes against the

control

Irrigation water productivity

Productivity changes against

the control

m3/ha kg/ha

Alternate irrigation (with filmy) 725 -20 5400 35 7.4 69

Every furrow irrigation (with filmy) 915 1 5520 38 6.0 37

Alternate irrigation (without filmy) 730 -20 3400 -15 4.7 6

Every furrow irrigation (without filmy) 907 0 4000 0 4.4 0

Irrigation by water mixed with manure (local name “sharvat”). Water to irrigated field flows through a big hole, in which

manure is put preliminary for proper mixing with water and following delivery to furrow

30% attempted to reduce losses by mulching of furrow or installation of polyethylene strip in head of furrow.

Actual water delivery

Change in area of water-allowance zones Improving

accuracy of water delivery from ±10% to ±2%

Use of water by winter wheat, depending on year’s water availability

Regional (transboundary) management

SCADA system of automation control

Farmer training in adapting to climate change

Training Seminar

Stabilization and use of the dried Aral Sea bed

• Central Asian countries have to develop their own National Policies to deal with climate change, where the development of alternative environmentally friendly energy sources and energy efficiency should become key priorities. They should also take responsibility for financing the implementation of these policies.

• Policies and activities for preventing climate change and climate change adaptation should be integrated into the socioeconomic development policies. The countries of the region should improve intersectoral and interdepartmental coordination.

• The transfer of new techniques and methods for climate change adaptation and emissions reduction should be combined with the transfer of relevant knowledge and skills to local experts in order to develop and establish local production, service industry, and to build capacity in whole.

• The process of development and implementation of policy in the sphere of climate change should be open and transparent. Governments and governmental bodies need to hold broad consultations with communities and take into account opinions of public organizations while making decisions.