Annex 14

Center for International Forest Research

Southern Africa Regional Office

Lusaka, Zambia

Report

Climate Change in Zambia: Opportunities for Adaptation

and Mitigation through Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative

By

Samuel Mulenga Bwalya

Peaks Environmental Management Consultants

P.O Box 32632

Lusaka, Zambia

January, 2010

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Table of Contents

Contents Page

Table of Contents................................................................................................................. i List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... ii List of acronyms ................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements............................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ v 1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Objectives of the study........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Approaches and methodology............................................................................. 2

2. Climate variability and impacts .................................................................................. 2 2.1 Climate variability trends.................................................................................... 2 2.2 Areas most vulnerable to climate variability ...................................................... 5 2.3 Future scenarios on climate variability and trends ............................................. 6 2.4 Measures to alleviate adverse impacts of climate variability ............................. 9

3. Climate Change mitigation initiatives ........................................................................ 9 3.1 REDD and AFOLU Policy Initiatives .............................................................. 10 3.2 Clean Development Mechanism Projects ......................................................... 11

4. Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives..................................................................... 11 4.1 NAPAs and National Level Programmes ......................................................... 12

4.1.1 Agriculture and Food Security.................................................................. 12 4.1.2 Human Health ........................................................................................... 14 4.1.3 Natural Resources ..................................................................................... 14 4.1.4 Water and Energy ..................................................................................... 17

4.2 Inventory of potential indigenous adaptation techniques ................................. 17 5. Appraisal of Country engagements in UNFCCC Processes ..................................... 21 6. Appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity ............................................................ 22 7. Appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape ................................................. 25 8. Issues specific case studies ....................................................................................... 34 9. Conclusions and recommendations........................................................................... 37 References......................................................................................................................... 39

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List of Tables

Table 1: Selected Impacts of climate variability in Zambia (1972—2008)........................ 4 Table 2: Country specific climate variability trends, future scenarios & likely impacts.... 7 Table 3: Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Food Security sector.................... 13 Table 4: Adaptation Measures in the Human Health Sector............................................. 14 Table 5: Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector)................................................. 15 Table 6: Adaptation Measures in Water and Energy Sector............................................. 17 Table 7: Main Impacts of Climate Hazards as identified by Local Communities............ 19 Table 8: Appraisal of country Bio-Carbon capacity in MRV System.............................. 24 Table 9: Summary of Some Actors in Climate Change Issues......................................... 27 Table 10: Summary of Climate Change Studies being undertaken in Zambia................. 29 Table 11: Bio-fuel Projects in Zambia.............................................................................. 35 Table 12: Bio-carbon projects in the country ................................................................... 36

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List of acronyms

AER Agro-Ecological Region

AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use

AIACC Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change

APINA Air Pollution Information Network in Africa

CBD Convention on Biological Diversity

CBU Copperbelt University

CCFU Climate Change Facilitation Unit

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CEEEZ Centre for Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia

CIFOR Centre for International Forestry Research

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

COP Conference of Parties

CSO Central Statistics Office

DMMU Disaster Mitigation and Management Unit

DNA Designated National Authority

ECZ Environmental Council of Zambia

ENMRD Environment and Natural Resources Management Department

ENRMMP Environment and Natural Resource Management and Mainstreaming Programme

FD Forestry Department

FRA Forest Resources Assessment Programme

GEF Global Environment Facility

GHG Greenhouse Gas

GPG Good Practice Guidance

ICRAF World Agro-forestry Centre

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute

ILUA Integrated Land-Use Assessment

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ITNs Insect Treated Nets

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IUCN World Conservation Union

JFM Joint Forestry Management

LULUCF Land-Use Land-Use Change and Forestry

MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

MEWD Ministry of Energy and Water Development

MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification

MTENR Ministry of Tourism Environment and Natural Resources

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action

NGOs Non-Governmental Organisation

PDD Project Design Documents

PINs Project Idea Notes

RDA Road Development Agency

REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation

SADC Southern Africa Development Community

UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNFAO United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNZA University of Zambia

WMO World Meteorological Organisation

ZAWA Zambia Wildlife Authority

ZMD Zambia Meteorological Department

ZVAC Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee

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Executive Summary

Introduction The Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative has been requesting African Countries to develop a

comprehensive approach and negotiating position on the broad inclusion of bio-carbon issues in the new international regime by compiling evidence and developing capacity of African countries to develop Bio-Carbon programmes and projects. Zambia is one of the countries earmarked for such activities and has compiled significant evidence base that is highlighted in this report. The report is based on extensive review of existing published and unpublished literature, policy documents and projects documents that government has developed and signed with cooperating partners, and on personal interviews with key stakeholders.

1. The information compiled suggests that Zambia is vulnerable to current and future climate change and variability. The country has already recorded increases in temperature and reduced rainfall in the last few decades, with temperatures estimated to increase at 0.6oC every ten years. The frequency of occurrence of extreme events (drought, seasonal floods and flush floods, extreme temperatures and dry spells) along with their intensity and magnitude has also increased, and future scenarios for the period 2010-2070 indicate that temperature will increase further by 2oC and rainfall is projected to decrease by 8-10 percent.

2. The effects and magnitude of the climatic hazards so far experienced indicate that the

county will need to put in place adequate adaptation and mitigation measures to safeguard public in infrastructure, secure livelihoods and fight poverty induced by climatic hazards such as floods and droughts. These adverse effects have immensely impacted on the country’s development programs by diverting much needed fiscal resources towards mitigating the effects of climate change. These mitigation programs have ranged from rehabilitation of destroyed physical infrastructure and providing shorting humanitarian assistance to those affected by floods and droughts. Additional public resources are be allocated towards adaptation programs aimed at strengthen the country’s resilience, thereby reducing the funds available to finance core-development and poverty reduction programmes. In this context, climate change has emerged to be another development challenges that the country has to deal with in order to ensure that the recent positive growth trends are sustainable. Since climate change disproportionately affects the poor who have experience increased incidences of hunger, health epidemics and loss of shelter and livestock, the country will have to refocus its development programs in order to make growth pro-poor. Increasing public investment in adaptation and mitigation and projects enhance the Zambia’s rich environmental and natural resource assets will help to put the economy on sustainable development path in this era of climate change. The evidence documented in this report suggest that the government has adequately embraced climate change issues in its development plans, but more is needed in terms of resource allocation and program development and implementation.

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3. The country’s adaptive capacity has largely been constrained by inadequate financial and technical resources that have compounded long-standing structural constraints to growth and development. Additionally, institutions mandated to contribute to disaster mitigation efforts lack comprehensive proactive strategies to address climate change induced disasters, rendering their response to disasters mostly inadequate and transitory. This is couple by the fact that a majority of the affected people do not have the means to adapt to climate change, and climate disasters weaken their already stressed capacities by weakening community assets (through community disruptions) on which they draw to sustain their livelihoods. This calls for public investments in concrete adaptation interventions to promote sustainable livelihoods and reduce poverty especially among the rural poor.

The national climate change adaptation programs

4. The National Adaptation Programme of Action has put in place an appropriate roadmap

which aimed at helping vulnerable sectors and communities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. It also provides a framework for mainstreaming climate change issues in the national development planning and programs. However, lack of funding has hampered implementation of identified and prioritised projects.

5. With respect to REDD, the country has commenced preparatory works towards

developing a national REDD Strategy. The ILUA Database in place and current review of relevant policies present opportunities for effective formulation and implementation of REDD strategies and other bio-carbon programmes and projects. The country has also established a Designated National Authority (DNA) to facilitate implementation of CDM projects. However, there is urgent need to develop its capacity and institutional framework to promote CDM projects in the country. The country has so far only one CDM project at an advanced stage of registration with the UNFCCC. Development of CDM projects in Zambia has been hampered by difficulties in project financing and certification, weak financial base of potential project developers, lack of CDM investment portfolios in local financial institutions lending policies, and complicated and / or lack of approved methodologies.

6. The country is a signatory to the UNFCCC and has been engaged in the UNFCCC

process through MTENR. Currently, the ministry with other stakeholders have been having preparatory meetings for the Fifteenth Conference of Parties to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark. The stakeholders have come up with a country position for submission to both the Kyoto and Post 2012 climate regime discussions. Countries negotiate as part of the African Group and as part of the Group of 77, and the country position include the following:

a. To commit developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions

consistent with the best available evidence; b. To advocate establishment of an adequate and predictable Global Adaptation

Fund to help least developed countries such as Zambia to address impacts of climate change.

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c. To negotiate for access to secure environmentally friendly technologies for least developed countries to make meaningful contribution to climate change mitigation through pursuing low carbon development pathways.

The appraisal of the country’s bio-carbon capacity revealed that an Integrated Land-Use Assessment survey has been undertaken and forest cover and other land-uses have been estimated. Forest cover is estimated at 50 million hectares (66%) of Zambia’s land area; cultivated land is estimated at 7.5 million hectares (10%), built-up area is at half a million hectares (1%) and water bodies are at 3.0 million hectares (4%) of the total land area. Forests growing stock is estimated at 2.9 billion m3 and above ground biomass is estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes. Stored carbon in above ground tree biomass is approximately 2.8 billion tonnes.

7. However, the available information does not indicate that the IPCC GPG framework has been used in monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in bio-carbon assessments in the country. The available data has shown that the country has inadequate capacity to implement bio-carbon projects as can be seen by the very few bio-carbon projects that have been initiated so far. This is largely attributed to inadequate financial and technical capacity to finance and implement bio-carbon projects even when such projects are financially and technically viable.

8. In order to develop capacity in bio-carbon assessment, the Forestry Department has taken

steps to train its personnel in monitoring, reporting and verification of forestry carbon stocks but still more technical training is needed in bio-carbon assessment and management of bio-carbon projects.

9. The appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape has shown that stakeholder

networks are rapidly expanding. A number of stakeholders have come on board and are contributing to creating awareness on climate change issues. The MTENR is a major stakeholder and is the focal Ministry on multilateral environmental agreements, including UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. Other public and private institutions, Civil Society Organisations and individuals are working on climate change issues. However, coordination mechanism for climate change activities is still one of the key challenges.

10. In general, Zambia has inadequate capacity to develop and implement bio-carbon projects

and programmes. There is currently inadequate financial and technical capacity to finance and implement bio-carbon projects, and therefore the need to develop programs to promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment and external resources into the sector.

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Recommendations The report highlights the following recommendations.

• There is need to undertake more studies to re-examine the current extent of agro-ecological regions and to isolate climate change hotspots in which climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions should be prioritized.

• The Zambian Government should scale up its efforts to initiate and implement projects and strategies in the NAPA by mainstreaming them in national development policies and programs and allocating adequate funding for their effective implementation.

• Government should ensure that the National REDD strategy, whose preparation has commenced, is completed and adopted as soon as possible. The initial ILUA project (first phase), which has established an information database on land use and estimate of carbon stored in the country’s forests and woodland resources, provides a useful basis for advancing bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects, and specifically initiating programs to benefit from the REDD initiatives.

• The current review of the forestry policy with the anticipated review of institutional and legal frameworks should be used as an opportunity that will provide direction and incentives to attract investment in forest management under the REDD initiatives and also other bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects in the country.

• The Zambian Government, through MTENR, should develop capacity in bio-carbon assessment (monitoring, reporting and verification of forests carbon stocks). It should also promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.

• There is urgent need to develop the capacity of the DNA and its institutional framework to promote CDM projects in the country. Government should spearhead building of technical and financial capacity and institutional framework for promotion of CDM projects and implementation of bio-carbon projects in the country.

• With the rapid expansion of the climate change stakeholder landscape, there is need to improve coordination of climate change activities. The newly established Climate Change Facilitation Unit under the MTENR has the mandate of coordinating all climate change activities in Zambia. It is the hope of many stakeholders this function of coordination will be effectively undertaken.

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1. Introduction The Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative seeks to ensure that the international climate change agreement that succeeds the Kyoto Protocol values the contribution that sustainable agriculture, forestry and agro-forestry makes to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this context, it is expected that the carbon markets and new financial mechanisms should be developed in such a way as to reward improved agricultural and forest management practices that help to reduce or mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, while also assisting smallholder farmers in developing countries in Africa to adapt to climate change. African countries are therefore expected to cooperate in developing a comprehensive framework and negotiating positions on the broad inclusion of bio-carbon in the forthcoming climate change agreement. Towards the development of a comprehensive framework and negotiation positions, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is currently working with such organisations as the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to compile and document evidence materials, and to develop the capacity of African countries to develop Bio-Carbon programmes and projects under the Bio-carbon initiative. The projects and the country reports that are produced provide the evidence based required to support policy formulation and decision making at different levels of the framework. In this report, available data and information is used to discuss and analyze the different bio-carbon programmes and projects being implemented in Zambia. An analysis of key stakeholders involved in the initiation, development and implementation of bio-carbon programmes in Zambia is also included. The report is organized as follows: In section two, climate change trends are explained from the period covering the late 60s, and projection of future climate change scenarios and impacts in Zambia is also covered. Sections three and four provide the basis for analysing current mitigation and adaptation initiatives that the government has initiated in the last couple of years. Section five covers an appraisal of Zambia’s engagement in UNFCCC processes, and section six discusses and assesses few bio-carbon and bio-fuel projects, in order to understand the country’s current capacity to implement these projects. In section seven, A review of selected bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects and a presentation of stakeholder analysis is done in section eight. Section nine provides some recommendations and conclusions.

1.1 Objectives of the study The key objectives of this exploratory study are to:

a) highlight and explain the climate change trends, threats and impacts in Zambia, analysed taking into account Zambia’s unique circumstances and vulnerabilities;

b) present an overview of adaptation and mitigation measures, responses and policy responses and plans that have been initiated at national and sub-national levels;

c) review existing scientific research and data relevant for developing viable Bio-carbon programmes and projects in Zambia; and

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d) Analyze and provide policy recommendations that can help to improve the design and implementation of bio-carbon programs and projects in Zambia.

1.2 Approaches and methodology The approach used to compile information and evidence for this study is largely based on review of existing published and unpublished literature and reports, policy documents and projects documents that Government has developed and signed with cooperating partners. Some data and information on key projects were derived from personal interviews with key stakeholders, and government officials involved either in policy development or implementation of selected key climate change projects. These data and projects were also benchmarked to other similar studies conducted in other developing countries, and have utilized established analysis frameworks developed by the UNFCCC to conduct the analysis. The authors also relied on their own expertise and knowledge of local circumstances to distil some recommendations and conclusions.

2. Climate variability and impacts Climate varies naturally on all time scales and the variations are caused by external forces such as changes in the sun’s energy output. Climate variability can also result from internal interactions of the climate system’s components. These interactions can result in fairly regular fluctuations or apparent random changes in climate often resulting in climate disasters and extreme events (UNEP & UNFCCC, 2002).

2.1 Climate variability trends Zambia has over several decades experienced a number of climatic hazards and extreme events that represent significant departures from average state of climate system. These climatic hazards are associated with human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. The climatic indicators have shown that the country has experienced an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall over the past decades. Studies have revealed that over the past three decades temperature has been increasing at 0.6oC per decade. There has also been an increase in the occurrence of extreme events along with their intensity and magnitude. The most serious ones have been drought, seasonal floods and flush floods, extreme temperatures and dry spells (MTENR, 2007). Zambia experienced worse drought in 1992/93 while the wettest conditions were recorded in 1978/79. Within the past seven years the country has experienced droughts, floods and normal conditions with the frequency of occurrence of drought and floods and their intensity and magnitude being on the higher side. The recent extreme event in relation to floods occurred in the 2007/08 rainy season, affecting a wide geographical area in the country (ZVAC, 2008). The assessment undertaken by Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZVAC) established that floods resulted into the destruction of crops, infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, habitations, school buildings and health centres. The Road Development Agency estimated that during the 2007/2008 floods the damage done to bridges and culverts and other

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road related infrastructures required ZMK 43.7 billion for emergency repairs (RDA, 2008). This is a significant cost to the economy, as it diverts public resources that would have been available to finance development programs to mitigating the impact of climate of change. Of the three agro-ecological regions of Zambia1, region I and II have been the most drought and flood prone areas. A socioeconomic case study conducted in Gwembe, one of the areas affected by the 2002/03 floods revealed the effects of the floods were far-reaching and adverse, and affected the social and economic welfare of local communities in the area. Some of the effects recorded include:

a) an increase in the incidence of hunger due to destruction of crops, reduction in cultivatable land and increased soil erosion;

b) loss of shelter, displacement of people and disruption of communication due to destruction of basic infrastructure such road and bridges,

c) an increase in the incidence of health epidemics such as malaria and waterborne diseases and;

d) reduced nutrition and natural resource based livelihoods including livestock (AIACC, 2004).

During the floods of 2007, the study undertaken by Oxfam found that 65 percent of the households interviewed were affected by the floods and 33 percent mostly those on the Zambezi plains were displaced and another 17 percent had to relocate to alternative homesteads on the uplands (Bwalya, 2007). Significant amounts of household goods and livestock were damaged and lost during the floods and those adversely affected faced critical hunger, and had to depend on humanitarian assistance and wild-food. The impact of those floods on local livelihoods and poverty was significant and called for immediate humanitarian assistance. This meant that livelihoods based on agricultural systems on the floodplains may no longer be sustainable and households need to identify other livelihood systems outside the floodplains. Community disruptions and poverty levels are expected to increase due to adverse effects of climate change, and concrete adaptation interventions are needed to promote sustainable livelihoods and reduce rural poverty.

1 Region I is a low rainfall area covering the Gwembe, Lunsemfwa and Luangwa valleys, and includes southern parts of western and southern provinces. Region II is a medium rainfall area that covers Sandveld plateau of Central, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern provinces, and the Kalahari sand plateau and Zambezi Flood plains of Western province. Region III has the highest rainfall and is part of the Central African Plateau covering Northern, Luapula, Copperbelt and North-Western provinces, as well as parts of Serenje and Mkushi districts.

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Table 1 below shows examples of socio-economic and environmental impacts associated with climate variability in Zambia between 1972 and 2008. Table 1: Selected Impacts of climate variability in Zambia (1972—2008) Season Selected Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts 1972/73 Poorest rainy season in 50 years; drought caused substantial drop in crop yields and a reduction in

groundwater reservoirs 1977/78 Heavy rainfall resulting in urban flooding in Lusaka (Kanyama disaster –extensive infrastructure

and settlement damages). This resulted in considerable damage to agricultural crops in many parts of the country.

1978/79 A drought rainy season, reducing maize production by 25 – 40 percent. 1979/80 A poor rainfall distributed rainy season with elongated dry spells. This caused considerable losses

to the 1980 maize crop in Southern Province. 1981/82 Below normal rainfall caused reductions in crop production as well as livestock production.

Rainfall deficits ranged from 30 to 50 % in Southern & Western and 10 to 40 % elsewhere. The Luano Valley of Central Province experienced significant famine.

1982/83 Frequent dry spells during the season led to poor performance in the agricultural sector, especially over the southern half of Zambia

1983/84 Drought reduced agricultural yields for the third consecutive season; worst affected areas were Southern, Central and Western Provinces

1986/87 Frequent dry spells between February and March led to widespread crop failure in Southern Province.

1988/89 Heavy rains in mid-season caused extensive water logging in crop fields; around Lusaka many people whose houses collapsed were left homeless and lost other household property.

1989/90 Persistent dry spell caused severe moisture stress in the major maize growing areas of Southern, Central and Eastern Provinces.

1990/91 Southern, Central and Lusaka Provinces experienced dry weather conditions. Marketed maize was only 46 % of annual requirement.

1991/92 Worst drought for many years hit the most critical crop stage (silk formation). All areas were declared disaster areas by the then Republican President, F.T.J. Chiluba.

1999/2000 Heavy rainfall caused floods in many parts of the country. (Season of “Mozambique” Floods). 2005/06 Heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods especially in the lower Zambezi (Kazungula floods, Kafue

Gorge mudslide resulting in country wide Zesco black out). 2007/08 Excessive rains over much of the country resulting in flash floods. Source: Adapted from Kanyanga (2008). These climatic variations are indicative of the effects of climate change and variability. The effects have adversely and immensely impacted on the Zambian population at all levels and virtually on all sectors of the economy, including on the natural and the built environment. Notably, all the sectors of the economy are vulnerable to climate change and climate variability but the most affected being agriculture, water, wildlife, forestry, health and energy. Food and water security, water quality, energy and the sustainable livelihoods of rural communities are some of the areas that have been adversely affected and this has subsequently threatened the accessibility of vulnerable Zambians to adequate food, good health, safe and adequate water supply and sanitation and sustainable livelihoods in general (ZVAC, 2008). For instance, the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) assessed that during the 2007/2008 floods, over 495,972 households in 39 districts of Zambia were adversely affected and 8 percent of these were displaced. Of the displaced households, 87 percent were in the rural areas while 13 percent were in urban areas (ZVAC, 2008). In addition, households depend on unprotected water sources such as wells, rivers and lakes were also adversely affected as floods

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and heavy rainfall in affected areas contributed to contamination of water sources. Consequently, the occurrence and incidence of diarrhoeal diseases amongst households with unprotected water sources increased significantly. The evident impact of droughts and floods led to a significant decrease in the productivity of primary sectors like agriculture, fisheries, wildlife and tourism (MTENR, 2007). Significant losses in net agriculture revenues have been recorded and associated to increased variability and increases in temperature and the reduction in rainfall. Recent studies done under the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) indicate that the regeneration capacity of the Miombo forests and woodlands had slowed down due to increasing temperatures. Hydropower production and wildlife based tourism, which are natural resource-based and sensitive climate variability, have also been adversely affected. The increase in malaria cases and other climate sensitive diseases have been shown to be significantly correlated with current climatic trends (MTENR, 2007). These factors that have contributed to the poor performance of the primary sectors resulting in raising overall poverty levels in the country, which is estimated at 68 percent of the national population (Thomson et al, 2008).

2.2 Areas most vulnerable to climate variability This description of climatic conditions and identification of areas most vulnerable to climate change can be described using the global agro-ecological zone developed by the United Nationsl Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) with the use of digital global databases of climatic parameters, topology, soil and terrains and land cover (ILUA 2008 database). The first agro-ecological zone (AEZI) represents semi-arid soils with low rainfalls (less than 800 mm) and altitude of (400—900 m). Land falling within this agro-ecological zone accounts for highly vulnerable climate change shocks especially droughts and accounts for about 17 percent of the total land area of Zambia. The second largest proportion of the land (23 percent) falls in the second agro-ecological zone (AEZIIb), which is characterized with medium rainfall (800—1000mm) occupying the Zambezi plains and Barotse Kalahari sand plateaux. Zone three (AEZIII) is typically of high rainfall of greater than 1000 mm and is located on the northern part of the country and the plateaus with altitude ranging from 1100 to 1500 meters. This characterization suggests that a large part of the country falling in the first and second ecological zones may be highly vulnerable to floods and droughts, due to climate change. The analysis of trends in climate change variability also reveals that regions most frequently affected by droughts and floods fall within this category. Recent experiences with these environmental stressful conditions have shown devastating impacts on food security resulting in hunger at household level and this called for immediate humanitarian assistance and raised important insights into adaptation and mitigation options as well as options for sustainable natural resource management in areas most vulnerable. Most importantly, the above classification of agro-ecological zones needs to be re-examined as these zones could have shifted overtime as climatic conditions and variables have changed. Thus, analysis of the areas that frequently experienced adverse impacts of climate change and variability has revealed that most of the negative impacts occur in southern and central regions of

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the country, and food security is highly vulnerable to climatic shocks (IFPRI, 2009; MTENR, 2007). Though all the Agro-ecological Regions experience climatic hazards, region I has consistently been experiencing climatic shocks in terms of droughts and floods, and water scarcity. There is also a general tendency of precipitation reducing and shifting towards dryness in this region (MTENR, 2007). More detailed study to establish climate hotspots needs to be undertaken to identify areas of significant vulnerability and to target mitigation and adaptation strategies to those areas.

2.3 Future scenarios on climate variability and trends The climatic baseline assessments undertaken in three main agro-ecological regions of Zambia for the 30-year period from 1970 to 2000 have revealed that in all the regions there is a general trend showing decrease in precipitation and increased episodes of having precipitation of below the 30-year average. According to studies done under the NAPA, the predicted climatic changes in Zambia show increasing mean temperatures for the period 2010-2070 averaging about 20C (MTENR, 2007). The studies further indicate that increased temperature will result in reduced precipitation in the range of 8% and 30% of the normal average. Episodes of drought situations are projected to increase and will adversely affect the agriculture sector, which is predominantly rain-fed. The IPCC 2007 report projects that yield from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by the year 2020. ‘Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition’ (IPCC, 2007). The climatic hazards that Zambia has experienced so far have severely impacted on agriculture production, food security and other sectors. The projected future climate will worsen the impacts further with most vulnerable groups being adversely affected socio-economically. The country specific climate variability trends, future scenarios and likely impacts are presented in Table 2 below.

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Table 2: Country specific climate variability trends, future scenarios & likely impacts Sectors Nature of

impact Mechanism (s) of impact Frequency of

occurrence or likely frequency of occurrence

Areas covered by the impacts in the country

Future scenarios (including measures taken to alleviate or prevent impacts)

Wat

er

Drought Critical water shortages experienced; inadequate recharge of ground water aquifers, lowering of water tables and drying of boreholes, rivers and other inland water bodies.

Increased frequency and intensity of droughts experienced over the last three decades (see table 1)

Agro-ecological region I & II most vulnerable and especially Southern and Eastern Provinces.

• General decrease in precipitation to continue and frequency and intensity of droughts predicted to increase.

• Mitigation and adaptation measures identified include water harvesting and irrigation systems, improved land and rain-water management practices,

• Crop diversification options.

Hea

lth

Droughts, high temperatures and Floods

Crop failures and increased water scarcity leading increased malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases including cholera epidemics, and water-borne diseases associated with floods and high temperatures.

Frequency, magnitude and intensity of droughts & floods have increased in the past three decades.

Agro-ecological Region I & II, especially Southern and Eastern Provinces.

• Droughts, high temperatures & floods predicted to increase and human health conditions likely to deteriorate.

• Measures taken include improving and diversifying nutrition and fortified food supplementations for the under-fives and other vulnerable groups.

• Improving crop varieties resistant to droughts and improving access to water (including safe treated water) for better environmental health.

• For malaria control, use of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) & other vector-control measures (i.e., indoor spraying) encouraged.

Agr

icul

ture

and

food

secu

rity

(inc

l. po

vert

y re

duct

ion

mea

sure

s)

Drought (seasonal & periodic), high temperatures & floods

Excessive precipitation leading to water logging, erosion and hindrance to field operation, increased frequency of droughts and shortening of the growing season, flash floods with associated adverse impacts on human welfare leading to food insecurity, inadequate livelihoods and adaptive capacities by vulnerable communities, increased incidence of malnutrition in children, famine and loss of productive assets and life.

Frequency, magnitude and intensity of droughts & floods have been increasing over the occurrence have increased in the last three decades.

All agro-ecological regions have been affected but the extent of severity varies. The worst affected are Regions I & II especially Eastern, Central, Western and Southern provinces.

• Reduced precipitation and increased frequency of droughts.

• Measures: developing early maturing/ drought resistant crops,

• promoting irrigation and efficient use of water resources including water harvesting and conservation farming;

• Fish breeding and restocking of depleted lakes, rivers, dams

• Promoting aquaculture development.

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Sectors Nature of impact

Mechanism (s) of impact Frequency of occurrence or likely frequency of occurrence

Areas covered by the impacts in the country

Future scenarios (including measures taken to alleviate or prevent impacts)

Env

iron

men

t

Drought, high temperature & floods

Regeneration capacity of the Miombo forest slowed down due to increasing temperatures. Reduced water levels affect Hydropower generation. Droughts and floods also adversely affect biodiversity and wildlife-based tourism. Soil erosion and siltation of rivers and streams increased, adversely affecting fisheries.

Frequency, magnitude and intensity of droughts & floods have been increasing over the past three decades.

All agro-ecological zones, and most critical in biological hotspots.

• Water recycling for hydropower generation has been proposed in view of predicted increased frequency of droughts.

• Measures: For wildlife, relocating to relatively suitable habitats has been proposed.

• protect riverine ecosystems and catchments is being undertaken but required further review

• Other measures-see agriculture above

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Floods Damaging bridges, culverts, habitations, school buildings, health centres, and many other structural facilities; displacement of communities in affected areas.

Frequency, magnitude and intensity of floods have increased over the past three decades

All the areas affected by floods, but most affected are agro-ecological regions I & II.

• Heavy rainfalls resulting in floods have been predicted and magnitude and intensity are likely to increase.

• Measures: re-allocation of vulnerable communities to safer areas,

• reconstruction of affected infrastructure and construction of (alternative) infrastructure in less flood-prone area,

• construction of infrastructure (culverts, bridges, buildings, houses, etc) capable of withstanding floods.

Eco

nom

y

Drought and floods

Reduced agricultural production and food security because of droughts and floods. Increase inflation due to increasing food price increases, high dependence on rain-fed agriculture has exacerbated the impacts. Reduced hydropower generation due to severe drought.

Frequency and intensity of droughts has increased over the past decades.

All agro-ecological zones, most adversely affected are regions I & II.

• Reduced economic growth, unemployment and increased poverty levels.

• Measures: economic diversification; use of drought resilient crops, promotion of irrigation and water harvesting schemes, and other measures identified above.

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2.4 Measures to alleviate adverse impacts of climate variability The Zambian Government through the MTENR has formulated the NAPA which has identified adaptation measures in all vulnerable sectors, including agriculture and food security, human health, water and energy sector, and natural resources (wildlife and forests). Detailed tables highlighting the climatic hazards to which the sectors are vulnerable to, the proposed adaptation measures and the relevant vulnerable regions are presented in Section 4. The predominant climatic hazards are droughts, high temperatures and floods. All the agro-ecological regions are vulnerable to the aforementioned hazards but the most vulnerable ones are regions I and II, mainly covering Eastern, Central, Western and Southern provinces. The NAPA has also identified specific projects that would bring immediate local benefits to vulnerable sectors and community groups with respect to adaptation to climate change. These projects have been identified and prioritised and proposals shall be developed and submitted for funding to Global Environment Facility (GEF) and other cooperating partners. Government will also provide through its budget funds towards implementing adaptation and mitigations measures in the vulnerable sectors and regions. However, there have been no funding to implement these projects. Only one project has been earmarked for implementation in 2010 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. The project relates to the adaptation to the effects of drought in the context of Climate Change in Agro-Ecological Region I. This project supports climate-resilient water management and agricultural practices, and includes pilot projects aimed at testing the feasibility and viability of the interventions in terms of financial sustainability and reduction in vulnerability to climate change. Water harvesting and irrigation systems, improved land and rain-water management practices, and crop diversification options are key elements of these interventions. Despite inadequate implementation of identified and prioritized projects, the NAPA has put in place an appropriate roadmap which, if effectively implemented, can significantly help mitigate the adverse effects of climatic hazards on most vulnerable sectors and communities. It also provides a framework for mainstreaming climate change issues in the national development planning and programs. Towards this end, the government established in 2002 the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit under the Office of the Vice-President. The DMMU is mandated to provide emergency relief operations in times of droughts, floods and other natural disasters, and while it has been quite effective in terms of reacting to environmental disasters like floods and droughts, the unit needs to be more pro-active in its response and strategy to addressing the effects of climatic disasters. Inadequate financial and technical resources have inhibited the country’s ability to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

3. Climate Change mitigation initiatives This section identifies and discusses mitigation initiatives undertaken at both national and sub-national levels in Zambia. It particularly focuses on mitigation initiatives related to land use, agriculture and forestry.

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3.1 REDD and AFOLU Policy Initiatives Zambia is among few countries that have been selected to pilot the United Nations Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) Programme aimed at reducing deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, and also to encouraging them to effectively participate in crafting the post 2012 Climate Change regime. This is expected to be achieved by developing and testing standards, methods and guidelines for assessment, monitoring, accounting, reporting and verifying reduction in deforestation and forest degradation. The programme also seeks to build collaborative approaches to land and forest management in developing countries. Under the REDD programme being piloted in Zambia, the Forestry Department (FD) was identified to be the lead agency and is currently undertaking activities with support from the UNFAO, UNEP and UNDP. The programme is linked to the Environment and Natural Resource Management and Mainstreaming Programme (ENRMMP) in the Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR). The FD has constituted a REDD Technical Committee, which comprises government ministries and agencies, civil society and the private sector. Under the programme, six REDD Readiness components have been identified and include Management of Readiness, Stakeholder Participation, REDD Implementation, Identification of REDD Strategies, National MRV System and Reference Scenario of Forest Emissions. All activities from the six components will culminate in the formulation of the National REDD Strategy. FD, being responsible for day to day implementation of the programme, has also embarked on activities to create awareness about the programme and has developed a draft REDD Readiness Roadmap for development of a national REDD Strategy for Zambia. The draft Roadmap, once finalized, will take into account several key issues including the following:

• emissions baseline inventory and a MRV system; • improvement and strengthening of the legislative framework including the review of the

Forestry Policy; • enhancement of institutional and technical capacity to implement REDD; and • clarification of technical, economic and social issues relating to land-use, tenure and

access to forest resources. The REDD related activities in Zambia are being implemented through various ministries and agencies and some of the key activities accomplished include the Integrated Land-Use Assessment (ILUA) study project, conservation agriculture, and sustainable energy projects among others. In order for Zambia to benefit from the REDD process, there is need to adopt more innovative and consultative approaches to reducing deforestation and forest degradation, and to build the necessary institutional and technical capacities.

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3.2 Clean Development Mechanism Projects The Government of the Republic of Zambia ratified the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in October 2006 and the MTENR, which serves as lead Ministry on environmental issues coordinates the implementation of the protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism in Zambia. The MTENR in consultation with other stakeholders have established the Designated National Authority (DNA) to facilitate implementation of CDM projects. These projects are intended to contribute to the global reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and promote sustainable development in Zambia. The DNA consists of representatives from line ministries, the private sector and civil society. It has two committees, namely; the Ad-hoc Working Group or technical committee that undertakes technical evaluations and the CDM Board which is the decision making body of the DNA. Since its inception, the DNA has evaluated over twenty Project Idea Notes (PINs) and at least three Project Design Documents. It has also approved two CDM projects. Many of the projects that have been technically evaluated are on mini-hydro power projects, energy switching initiatives mainly from fossil fuels like diesel to hydropower and sustainable forest management. A CDM project on improved cook-stove commonly referred to as the Lusaka Sustainable Energy Project, has reached an advanced stage in terms of being registered with the UNFCCC. It is now at a stage where a completeness check is to be undertaken by the UNFCCC secretariat, in accordance with the ‘Clarifications to facilitate the implementation of the procedures for review as referred to in paragraph 41 of the modalities and procedures for a Clean Development Mechanism’. In terms of voluntary carbon projects related to land use, agriculture and forestry, very few projects, if any, have so far been undertaken. But there is significant interest from several stakeholders, including the private sector to undertake such projects.

4. Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives The climatic hazards that have been experienced in the country include droughts, floods and high temperatures. In order to respond to priority needs for adaptation to Climate Change, the Zambian Government through MTENR formulated the NAPA, a national document that outlines the types of climatic hazards experienced in Zambia, their impacts and adaptation measures to respond to these impacts. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) in Zambia has also undertaken an assessment on climate change vulnerability in Zambia (IUCN, 2007). The assessment focused on obtaining information on the extent of the risks associated with climate change and variability at the local level. The assessment also aimed at providing complementary information on climate hazards and on existing coping strategies at the local level to facilitate policy dialogue at the national level (IUCN, 2007). Other climate change related studies with components on adaptation have been undertaken by some government ministries, agencies and private institutions. This section discusses adaptation/copping strategies that have been identified at both the national and sub-national levels in respect of the effects of climate change and variability in Zambia.

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Adaptation measures in the key vulnerable sectors like agriculture and food security, human health, water and energy, and natural resources (forestry and wildlife), have been identified and are discussed below.

4.1 NAPAs and National Level Programmes

4.1.1 Agriculture and Food Security The agriculture sector is adversely affected by drought, floods and high temperatures. Droughts have led to crop failure, loss of income and increase in diseases (both human and livestock). High frequency of dry spells has also contributed to shortening of growing season and crop damage. Floods have led to water logging, soil erosion, and destruction to infrastructure and have hindered farming activities. All these factors have negatively impacted on food security, livelihoods and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. In order to adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability, government through the MTENR has formulated adaptation measures in the sector. Table 3 shows the adaptation measures in the agriculture sector.

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Table 3: Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Food Security sector Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security Relevant Vulnerable Regions Climatic Hazards Adaptation Measure Agro-Ecological Regions (AER) I & II, especially Eastern, Central, Western and Southern provinces

Drought (seasonal and periodic), floods - water logging, shortened growing season, and delayed on-set of the rains.

• Adaptation of crops (cereals, legumes, root and tuber crops, and horticultural crops) to climate change/ variability including promotion of early maturing/drought resistance crops

• Develop sustainable and appropriate programmes for both crops and livestock in the face of climate change

• Promotion of irrigation and efficient use of water resources

• Use of technologies for fertility improvement and moisture storage (including soil conservation measures)

• Strengthening of the early warning systems and preparedness

• Water harvesting • Development of dams and dip tanks and sustainable

supply of feed to mitigate the effects of droughts; • Promotion of Improved crop and livestock management

practices • Introduction of well-adapted livestock • Application of GIS/remote sensing in mapping of drought

and flood prone areas • Improve post-harvest storage and marketing of produce

AER I Drought • Boosting the Zambezi River Water System to increase delivery

All AERs with viable rivers and water bodies Drought, Floods and high temperatures • Promotion of aquaculture • species suitable Fish breeding to restock the lakes, rivers

and dams • Using for aquaculture in vulnerable areas

Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007. AER means Agro-Ecological Region

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4.1.2 Human Health Climatic hazards affect human health. High temperature regimes and floods have been associated with increased cases of malaria and major epidemics of diarrhoeal diseases such as cholera, dysentery among others. Malnutrition in communities with less adaptive capacity has increased because of crop failures associated with a high frequency of droughts. At national level adaptation measures on the adverse effects of climate change and variability in the human health sector have been formulated. These are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Adaptation Measures in the Human Health Sector Human Health Relevant Vulnerable Regions

Climatic Hazards Adaptation Measure

Drought, shortened growing season and delayed on-set of the rains.

• Improved and diversified nutrition and fortified food supplementations for the under-fives and other vulnerable groups. Improved access to water for better environmental health.

AER I &II

Floods • Use of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and other vector-control measures to prevent malaria. Use of climate-based early warning systems and GIS-mapping of vulnerable localities.

• Water treatment for quality control (to prevent waterborne diseases) and climate –proofing of sanitation.

Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007 Note: AER means Agro-Ecological Region.

4.1.3 Natural Resources Wildlife habitats have been affected by climatic hazards such as droughts through changes in rangelands. Desert-type conditions have developed because of prolonged droughts and water shortage in some areas leading to reduced wildlife habitats. In addition forest resource regeneration is negatively affected by drought and other climatic hazards that affect the resilience of forest vegetation types. These climatic hazards arising from climate change and variability have subsequently threatened socio-economic welfare (livelihoods) of forest resource dependent communities that have no adaptive capacity. Adaptation measures aimed at moderating harm and exploiting beneficial opportunities in response to climatic hazards have been developed and published in the NAPA document (MTENR, 2007). Table 5 below shows adaptation measures developed for the natural resources sector.

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Table 5: Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector) Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector Relevant Vulnerable Regions Climatic Hazards Adaptation Measure AER I & II, especially Eastern, Central, Western and Southern provinces

Drought (seasonal and periodic), floods - water logging, shortened growing season, and delayed on-set of the rains.

• Improved fire management in game reserves • Construction of watering points e.g. boreholes for watering

wildlife • Breeding programme for selected species in National Park • Community based ranching in order to protect vulnerable

species • Culling to maintain sustainable animal populations • Identifying and protecting migratory routes of wildlife • Undertaking protective management measures to protect

displaced wildlife populations • Developing small dams, and other storage facilities, to mitigate

droughts/flooding, to harvest water and to initiate community-based fish farming and breeding

• Restocking of depleted game areas All AER with viable water bodies Drought and high temperatures • Improved extension services to ensure sustainable land and

forest management • Improving energy access and security, especially in rural areas

(e.g., through the Rural Electrification Agency, promotion of energy-efficient stoves)

All AER with viable rivers and water bodies

Drought and floods • Promotion of community forest management • Forest fire management at the community level • Targeting afforestation and re-afforestation programmes to

control siltation of streams and rivers, and fuel wood supply to reduce deforestation

• Promotion of community woodlots for the provision of fuel wood and as sources of alternative cash income

• Developing and implementing strategies for drought preparedness, flood zoning and mitigation works

• Translocation of animal Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007.

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4.1.4 Water and Energy Adaptation measures in the Water and Energy sector have also been developed in light of the observed and anticipated effects of climate change and variability. Droughts have negatively affected ground water resources and have contributed to critical water shortages. A number of boreholes and rivers have dried up. The hydropower generation is also affected by prolonged drought situations. The Southern Province of Zambia is particularly vulnerable to climatic hazards such as droughts, high temperature regimes and floods. Table 6 below shows some of adaptation measures developed. Table 6: Adaptation Measures in Water and Energy Sector Water and Energy Sector Relevant Vulnerable Regions

Climatic Hazards Adaptation Measure

AER I &II

Drought • Use of renewable energies • Efficient use of charcoal and expanded use

of ethanol stoves • Regional Integration of Electricity

Infrastructure from Biomass Sources

AER I &II Drought and high temperatures

• Inter-Basin Water Transfers

Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007.

4.2 Inventory of potential indigenous adaptation techniques Droughts, floods, extreme heat and shortening of rainy season have been identified as the most common climatic hazards that adversely affect local livelihoods. The impacts are especially critical in those communities with limited adaptive capacities to respond to climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessment undertaken by IUCN revealed that communities have experienced an increase in the number of droughts, rain intensity, and extreme heat conditions over the past decades (IUCN, 2007). This assessment was undertaken in seven communities from three agro-ecological regions of Zambia. The impacts of climatic hazards experienced at the local level are summarized in Table 7 below. The results indicate that climate variability has had a negative impact on agricultural local livelihoods and exacerbated poverty conditions in those communities forcing households to seek livelihood options outside agriculture. In particular, local communities have increasingly become more dependent on forest-based livelihoods and income generating activities. Fisheries have also been adversely impacted by climate variability and limiting livelihood options of affected communities. In addition, households revealed that the incidence of diseases arising from increasing temperatures and floods, as well as from lack of adequate nutrients due to household food shortfalls have increased in recent years. However, most communities surveyed have adopted several adaptation strategies to cope with these adverse effects of climate change. Generally, the results of this particular study indicates that local communities have traditional knowledge and skills to adapt to climate

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change and climate variability, but these are fairly transitory and less robust to be regarded as adequate strategies to enable them adapt and mitigate against adverse climate change conditions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is also implementing a UNDP supported project on adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological Regions I and II where climate change impacts have been more pronounced. How successful these interventions have been is yet to be evaluated.

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Table 7: Main Impacts of Climate Hazards as identified by Local Communities Drought Floods Extreme Heat Shorter Rainy Season • Crop damage/loss, leading to food scarcity and hunger • Water shortages • Reduced fish stocks • Income loss • Reduced charcoal business • Increase in diseases (affecting humans and animals) • Decreased water quality • Increased soil erosion • Decreased soil fertility • Increased honey production (if drought is not too severe)

• Crop damage/loss, leading to food scarcity and hunger

• Loss of crop land and grazing ground

• Decline in fish catches • Increase in diseases (malaria,

dysentery, cholera, etc.) • Destruction of infrastructures

(houses, roads) • Life loss (humans and livestock)

• Increase in diseases affecting animals, crops and humans

• (especially malaria) • Decreased human • capacity to do work • Loss of life (animals • and humans) • Crop damage/loss • Reduced fish stocks • Decreased livestock

feed • Reduced water

quality

• Decreased crop yields • Crop damage/loss • Decreased income from

crop selling • Crop seeds do not reach

maturity (which negatively affects the next crop generation)

• Reduced charcoal production and business

• Income diversification (charcoal making, fishing, honey and beer production, selling grass and livestock, casual labour) to buy food

• Trading other commodities for food • Gathering and selling • wild food • Food rationing • Selling less crops to keep more for household

consumption • Shifting agricultural production from highlands to lower

lands • Earlier crop planting • Growing more drought resistant crops (e.g. cassava) • Incorporation of crop residues instead of burning • Crop rotations, intercropping, and cover cropping • Irrigation (practiced by very few) • Sinking wells • Walking longer distances to get water • Using medicinal plants to treat diseases • Going to the medical clinic • Boiling water or treating it with chlorine

• Income diversification (charcoal, crafts, mats and beer making, fishing , grass selling, casual labour) to buy food

• Trading other commodities for food

• Gathering and selling • wild food • Shifting agricultural production,

livestock and houses to higher lands

• Using medicinal plants to treat diseases

• Boiling water or treating it with chlorine to prevent diseases

• Bury ditches to prevent waterborne diseases

• Early evacuation when water levels increase

• Improve drainage around houses • Putting plastic on top of houses

• Using medicinal plants to treat diseases

• Boiling water or treating it with chlorine to prevent diseases

• Going to the medical • clinic • Buying and using

mosquito nets and repellents

• Working earlier in the morning

• Buying medicines for cattle

• Income diversification (e.g. agricultural production to cope with decreased fish stocks; charcoal

• Income Diversification (selling charcoal, livestock or grass; casual labour)

• Selling less crops to keep more for household consumption

• Gathering wild food • Buying seeds for the next

growing season • Exchanging crop seeds

between community members or between villages

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Drought Floods Extreme Heat Shorter Rainy Season • Getting support from NGOs and the government • If houses are destroyed, build

temporary shelters or live temporarily with neighbours

production to cope with crop loss)

• Trading other commodities for food

• Earlier crop planting • Taking animals out

early in the morning • Using zero-grazing

for some animals Source: IUCN, 2007

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5. Appraisal of Country engagements in UNFCCC Processes The Government of the Republic of Zambia through MTENR has been engaged in the UNFCCC process. The UNFCCC Focal Point, who is also the Director of Environment and Natural Resources Management Department (ENMRD) at MTENR, and some members of staff from the ministry have been attending UNFCCC meetings since the ratification of the convention. The team has currently been attending the UNFCCC meetings in preparation for the Fifteenth Conference of Parties to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark. At national level, the MTENR is coordinating preparatory meetings to enhance and sharpen the skills capacity of the negotiators and to prepare Zambia’s position for submission to both the Kyoto and Post 2012 climate regime discussions. At major international conferences, Zambia does not negotiate its position as a country but instead negotiates as part of the African Group and as part of the Group of 77. Therefore, critical negotiation issues that the Zambian delegation has identified and the position that has been developed so far form part of the African and Group of 77 positions. Zambia’s negotiated position is outlined below.

• To commit developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions consistent with the best available evidence;

• To advocate establishment of an adequate and predictable Global Adaptation Fund to help least developed countries such as Zambia to address impacts of climate change.

• To negotiate for access to secure environmental friendly technologies for least developed countries to make meaningful contribution to climate change mitigation through pursuing low carbon development pathways.

The country will also negotiate for an appropriate global incentive mechanism that focuses on adaptation than mitigation and recognises and rewards the efforts of local and forest dependent communities in conserving and sustainably utilising their forests (MTENR, 2009). Efforts are also being made to generate data and information to back the country’s position on various issues to be discussed. Studies are being conducted under the Second National Communication project to come up with accurate and reliable information on Zambia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment including National Circumstances related to the country’s capability to address challenges posed by climate change and variability. The reports on the studies being undertaken are expected to be ready before December 2009.

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6. Appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity The IPPC Good Practice Guidance (GPG2003) for Land-Use and Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) relates to the measurement, estimation, assessment of uncertainties, monitoring and reporting of net carbon stock changes and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks in land-use, land-use change and forestry sectors. The framework helps to ensure that ‘estimates of carbon stock changes, emissions by sources and removals by sinks, even if uncertain, are bona fide estimates, in the sense of not containing any biases that could have been identified and eliminated, and that uncertainties have been reduced as far as practicable given national circumstances’ (IPCC, 2003). The recent forest inventory for Zambia was undertaken using a methodology developed by the Forest Resources Assessment programme of the FAO. It is based on nation-wide field sampling. It involved undertaking an Integrated Land-Use Assessment (ILUA) survey throughout the country between 2006 and 2007. The survey was undertaken by MTENR through the Forestry Department. The survey was done with technical assistance from the UNFAO and culminated in the compilation of comprehensive forestry inventory data that provide information on land use patterns, more reliable estimates on deforestation, carbon stocks and sequestration, and provides geo-spatial data for analysing agricultural and forestry policies in Zambia. It is a valuable source of data for establishing a national database on land use resources. It provides a wealth of information and data that if properly utilised can contribute to sustainable management of forestry and land use in the country. The data is relevant for land use planning, formulation of policies, monitoring and evaluation of impacts of policies as well as for addressing climate change issues, among others. The ILUA report estimates forest cover at 50 million hectares (66%) of Zambia’s land area2. The other land uses such as cultivated land is estimated at 7.5 million hectares (10%), built-up area is at half a million hectares (1%) and water bodies is at 3.0 million hectares (4%) of the total land area of the country. Forests growing stock is estimated at 2.9 billion m3 and above ground biomass is estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes. The report also estimates that approximately 2.8 billion tonnes of carbon is stored in above ground tree biomass in Zambian forests and woodlands (Kalinda et al, 2008; Forestry Department ILUA Report, .2008). However, the available information does not indicate that the IPCC GPG framework has been used in monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in bio-carbon assessments in Zambia. For instance the national greenhouse inventories, which include emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the land-use change and forestry sector, and that have been prepared in Zambia so far have not adequately incorporated assessment of uncertainties and corresponding quality assurance and quality control system. The inventory preparation process is not adequately documented and archived to facilitate re-calculations in

2 Surface land area for Zambia is estimated at 752,614km2.

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light of new scientific knowledge, emission factors and methodological changes, among others. It is however envisaged that this will be done in the second phase of the project. In light of present efforts to pilot REDD in Zambia, the Forestry Department has taken steps to train its personnel on monitoring, reporting and verification of forestry carbon stocks. It is hoped that capacity will soon be developed to more accurately monitor, verify and report on forest net carbon stocks in the country. A number of stakeholders with roles and responsibilities are involved in forest inventory, agricultural planning and soils data acquisition. In undertaking the ILUA project, the Forestry Department is collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (Agriculture), the Ministry of Lands (Survey), the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (Central Statistics Office), Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), University of Zambia, Copperbelt University, Zambia Forestry College and Local Authorities (Councils). The available data on the ILUA is national data and is accessible through the MTENR and the Forestry Department. Draft copies of the ILUA report are readily accessible on the internet or from the Forestry Department and UNFAO. Table 8 below presents information on the appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity in terms of monitoring, reporting and verification assessment. The data suggest that capacity for the country to implement bio-carbon projects needs to be developed. There are currently very few bio-carbon projects that have been initiated in the country. This is largely attributed to inadequate financial and technical capacity to finance and implement bio-carbon projects even when such projects are financially and technically viable. The Zambian Government needs to come up with deliberate measures to promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.

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Table 8: Appraisal of country Bio-Carbon capacity in MRV System (monitoring, reporting and verification) using IPCC GPG framework

Data type Paper Digital Which institution has

the data and data access rules

Amount of carbon lost, sequestered or stored from activities in column 1 where

available

Comments

Country forest inventory (sustainable forest management, deforestation, reforestation and aforestation), ILUA Report

available Available Forestry Department. ILUA reports and the data are readily accessible from the FAO website and from Forest Department

• Carbon stored in tree biomass estimated at 2.8 billion tonnes;

• 73.9 ton/per hr is potential incremental carbon that can be sequestered through improved management of indigenous forests (ILUA report, 2008)

• There is potential to implement REDDs and absorb significant carbon through improved forest management practices exists.

• There is also potential to reduce deforestation through fuel wood technological substitution and innovation, and transitioning to renewable energy,

Land use planning and land use (crop land management, revegetation, grazing land management)

partially available

partially available

Local authorities, Forestry Department.

• No comprehensive data is available

• Local authorities are the planning authorities within their jurisdiction.

• Forestry Department has, under ILUA Database, Land-use data.

Stakeholder roles and responsibilities in forest inventory, agricultural planning and soils

N/A N/A MTENR, MACO, ECZ, CSO, ZAWA, UNZA, CBU, SURVEY DEPT

Significant carbon can be stored through community woodlot projects, as well as bio-energy projects as is the case with the Kaputa Bio-fuel project

• There is potential to promote community forestry through bio-carbon projects, and to deliver benefits to communities from such projects.

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7. Appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape The climate change stakeholder landscape is rapidly expanding. A number of stakeholders have come on board and are contributing to creating awareness on climate change issues. The stakeholders range from public and private institutions, Non-Governmental Organisations, Civil Society to individuals. Ministry of Tourism Environment and Natural Resources The main actor is the MTENR, which is a focal ministry on multilateral environmental agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNFCCD), among others. The ministry has established a Climate Change Facilitation Unit (CCFU) to:

a) Coordinate climate change related activities and to prepare a National Climate Change Response Strategy,

b) Draft Climate Change Response Policy and Legal Framework, c) Develop a Communication and Advocacy Strategy on Climate Change and to facilitate

development and implementation of the NAPA and REDD pilot programmes. d) Develop guidelines for effective participation in regional and international climate

change conferences and develop a profile on data sources for analytical work and; e) Facilitate the development of CDM projects, among others.

Within the MTENR, there are several specialized agencies and departments with specific mandates. Because of their specialized mandates, they are best described as separate key stakeholders. These include the Environmental Council of Zambia, Forestry Department, Zambia Wildlife Authority and the National Heritage Conservation Commission. In particular, the Environmental Council of Zambia also plays a significant role in the preparation of national communications, including the preparation of national GHG inventories report. The national communications seek to communicate the key elements of information to UNFCCC Secretariat on the implementation of the convention in Zambia. ECZ has so far facilitated the preparation of the Initial National Communication for Zambia, and drew teams of experts from key institutions in Zambia. ECZ is currently facilitating preparation of the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC Secretariat. Consultancy firms have been contracted to prepare reports on technical components of a national communication which will be consolidated into a Second National Communication Document. Zambia Meteorological Department: The Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) under the Ministry of Transport and Communication provides meteorological data essential in undertaking climate change research. It also carries out its own research on improving early warning system to enhance adaptation to climate change. The provision of meteorological information to support early warning for disaster preparedness is the most fundamental aspect of public weather services provided by ZMD to the Zambian communities.

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The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives: The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO) is also a key stakeholder. It undertakes research on climate change and agriculture, including studies on adaptation to adverse effects of climate change (drought and floods) especially in vulnerable agro-ecological regions I and II. International organisations: International organisations like IUCN Zambia are key actors in climate change research and policy development. They are currently implementing a project on climate change and development in Zambia. The World Bank, British Council, Danish Embassy, Finnish Embassy, UNDP, UNEP and many others are involved at various levels in climate change issue in Zambia, and provides climate change related financial and technical assistance to Zambia. Civil Society Organisations: Some Civil Society Organisations are also involved in climate change issues. They have established a network of Zambian Civil Society Organisations to help create awareness on climate change issues and to provide effective policy advocacy aimed at promoting equity and fairness in the manner government addresses climate change challenges at all levels. One of the networks recently established by civil society to coordinate their interventions on climate change in the country is the Zambia Civil Society Climate Change Network. Private sector: Private sector participation in climate change research, development and policy development has been quite limited over the last decade. This is attributed to inadequate institutional and technical capacity to undertake climate change research in most private sector institutions. In Zambia, the Centre for Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia (CEEEZ) Limited is one of the private organisations that have been instrumental in undertaking research on climate change issues. It has been involved in (i) preparation and development of GHG Inventories using IPCC Guidelines; (ii) research on improving emission factors in various sectors; (iii) development of spread sheet for calculation of GHG emissions and removals based on the 2006 IPCC guidelines; (iv) in-depth review of national communications and GHG inventories at national and international levels. Njuwe Consultants Limited is also involved in carrying out climate change studies. There are other private institutions and individuals that undertake climate change research works but, just like CEEEZ, need urgent and significant capacity building to respond to the global, regional and national demands required to address the monumental challenges posed by climate change. Research institutions: There is a couple of research institution in that undertake research on climate change. The major ones being the University of Zambia, and its network of research centres, the Copperbelt University and several other government colleges. These institutions, however, face financial and technical constraints to scale-up research on climate change and generate solid policy relevant recommendations to address national climate change challenges. Most private teaching and research institutions are yet to develop necessary competencies to understand and undertake climate change research. Thus, capacity building is required in both private and public universities in the area of climate change.

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Table 9 below presents a summary of some actors on climate change issues. Table 9: Summary of Some Actors in Climate Change Issues

Name of actor/ institution

including key ministries

Type (government, NGO, private

sector, education)

Brief description of actual work

Ministry of Tourism Environment and Natural Resources

Government Focal ministry on multilateral environmental agreements such as UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNFCCD). Coordination of climate change related activities to prepare a National Climate Change Response Strategy, Policy and Legal Framework, Communication and Advocacy Strategy, NAPA projects and REDD pilot programmes implementation, facilitation of CDM projects development.

Environmental Council of Zambia

Government Preparation of national communications, preparation of national GHG inventories, climate change awareness campaign

Forestry Department

Government REDD, Sustainable Forest Management

Zambia Meteorological Department

Government Provision of meteorological data essential in undertaking climate change research. Research on improving early warning system to enhance adaptation to climate change.

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

Government Research on climate change and agriculture, Studies on adaptation to adverse effects of climate change (drought and floods) especially in vulnerable agro-ecological regions I and II.

International organisations:

International Organisation

IUCN- Climate change research and policy development (currently implementing a project on climate change and development in Zambia). World Bank, British Council, Danish Embassy, Finnish Embassy, UNDP, UNEP involved in climate change issues in Zambia, and provide climate change related financial and technical assistance.

Civil Society Organisations

Non-governmental Organisation

Involved in climate change issues. Established Zambia Civil Society Climate Change Network to help create awareness on and to provide effective policy advocacy aimed at promoting equity and fairness in the manner government addresses climate change challenges at all levels.

Research institutions:

Government Undertake research on climate change. The major ones being the University of Zambia, and its network of research centres, the Copperbelt University and several other government colleges.

Private sector Participation in climate change research, development and policy development has been quite limited due to inadequate institutional and technical capacity to undertake climate change research. Centre for Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia (CEEEZ) and Njuwe Consultants are some of the firms that conduct studies on climate change.

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Table 10 presents some of the key actors identified during a stakeholders workshop conducted to identify institutions undertaking climate change related studies. However, the studies are uncoordinated resulting in their duplication. Please note that it’s not possible at the moment to provide an exhaustive list of all institutions, but only to highlight a few.

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Table 10: Summary of Climate Change Studies being undertaken in Zambia Institution Initiatives Status

• Preparation and development of GHG Inventories using IPCC Guidelines; research on improving emission factors in various sectors; development of spread sheet for calculation of GHG emissions and removals based on the 2006 guidelines; in-depth review of national communications and GHG inventories at national and international levels;

Ongoing

• Development of baseline data and mitigation scenarios to help in implementing policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks. Methodology and assumptions: LEAP Low-range Energy Alternative Planning tool; Use of COMAP (Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process) in the Forestry sector to analyse the impact of changes in forestry cover, product supply and demand, cost and benefit of mitigation options; Use of Regional Climate Models (RCM) to generate future climate change scenarios.

Ongoing

• Identification of mitigation projects under the CDM on energy efficiency, etc; estimation of biomass (carbon) stock under baseline and mitigation scenarios.

Ongoing

Centre for Energy, Environment & Engineering in Zambia (CEEEZ)

• Formulation of National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) covering climate, energy and water and agriculture; particular contributions on climate baseline assessments and projected climatic fluctuations, and impacts of climate change/variability on selected crops and livestock; Vulnerability assessments with respect to community responses on effects of climate change/variability and socio economic situation; and assessment of coping strategies in relation to vulnerability stresses. Study on effects of climate change on hydropower potential of SADC.

Completed September 2007

• Preparation and development of GHG Inventories. Ongoing

• Climate change mitigation through the use of solar photovoltaic (renewable energy); Ongoing

• Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia; contributing to food security and sustainable development by enabling adoption of adequate adaptation strategies.

Completed

Energy & Environment Resource Group - UNZA (EERG)

• Renewable energy research, particularly on solar energy. Ongoing

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Institution Initiatives Status • Teaching, Research and Capacity Building in climate change prediction, climate change

scenarios generation, climate change trend analysis; Introducing and implementing courses on climate change (Masters degree or shorter demand-driven courses); Dissemination of results on research, latest scientific knowledge and understanding of Climate Change issues through lectures, public talks, conferences/workshop, articles, etc;

Ongoing

• Regional emissions inventory preparation & transport modelling tasks with partners Air Pollution Information Network in Africa (APINA); Development of an APINA Workbook & Manual for Emissions Inventory Preparation (model): SO2, NOx, CO, NH3, PM2.5 & PM10.

Ongoing Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD)

• Provide routine weather and climate assessments and early warning; research on weather and climate related fields (e.g. Integrated Flood Management Strategy); participation in WMO activities; participation in regional policy dialogue on emissions; publication of climate change research results in international journals (e.g. Journal of Geophysical Research, etc), regional emissions inventory through APINA;

Ongoing

• Integrated Land Use Assessment Project (ILUA) with FAO and MACO. Baseline data on forest resources and socio-economic variable for use in forestry planning process and other related studies. Coverage – entire country

The ILUA Project is completed. The assessment was carried out during the period 2005 to 2008.

Forestry Department

• Climate change impact on forests and community socio-economic wellbeing as a result of flooding. (2004)

Completed: This study was carried out in Gwembe District of Southern Province in the year 2004. Matsika E., Siampale A. (2004), Climate Change Impact on Forests and Socio-Economic as a result of flooding: Case study of Gwembe District, Southern Province of Zambia.

Ministry of Energy & Water

• Raise awareness on the opportunities of bio-fuels and strengthening institutional framework for renewable energies in Zambia

Ongoing

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Institution Initiatives Status • Hydrological surveys; Catchment hydrological assessments; Flood and drought analyses;

Groundwater surveys, monitoring, assessment and mapping; Groundwater aquifer characteristics; River Catchment water balance; Water resources infrastructure development (boreholes, dams, spring and rainwater harvesting - facilities developed assist greatly to mitigate the impacts of floods and droughts by increasing water supply for various uses); and Monitoring and Evaluation

Routine Operations of the Water Affairs Department

Development – Energy Department

• Water resources research and development; Hydrological surveys; Catchment hydrological assessments; Flood and drought analyses; Groundwater surveys, monitoring, assessment and mapping; Groundwater aquifer characteristics; River Catchment water balance; Monitoring and evaluation.

Ongoing

• Reversing food security and environmental degradation through conservation agriculture (3 years- ends in 2011). Examine Jatropha growing and role in GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration. Review institutional framework that guide the securing of carbon credit.

• Compare farmer vulnerability to climate change and variability under both conventional and conservation agriculture.

Ongoing (2008-2011).

• Impacts of land use change on local ecology: examine extent of magnitude of land use change over two decades in Chipata; Ecological Risks Assessment; Identification of biophysical and socio-economic drivers of land use change.

• Climate change and cereal yields in Southern Zambia: impacts, adaptation and risk management

• Building capacity for sustainable biodiversity management in Zambia.

Planned

Geography Department, UNZA

• Assessment of the application of solar energy technologies; review of Zambia’s energy policy towards renewable energy technologies.

Completed

Zesco Limited • Upgrading power generating units to make them more efficient and protection of reservoir areas; incentives programme for replacement of ordinary bulbs with CFLs.

Ongoing

• NAPA to identify the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse effects of climate change • Trade and Environment Study 2005.

Completed September 2007 Ministry of Tourism Environment & Natural Resources (MTENR)

• District Environmental Situational Analysis in the formulation of the National Policy on Environment (2004).

Completed

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Institution Initiatives Status • Scoping study on the economic impact of climate change to recommend a methodology for

undertaking a full study on economic impacts of climate change; multidisciplinary study on the impacts of floods in Southern Province;

Completed

• The National Capacity Self Assessment Report 2006: Rio Conventions. Completed

• Establishment of a Secretariat on Climate Change and formulation of a National Climate Change Response Strategy.

CCFU established and is operational

• Lack of resilience in African small-holder farming: Exploring measures to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities to pressures of climate change (Choma and Monze) 2007 – 2010

Ongoing

• Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability to climate change (Monze and Sinazongwe) 2007-2010.

Ongoing: 2007 - 2010

Zambia Agricultural Research Institute - Mt. Makulu (ZARI)

• Vulnerability and resilience of socio-ecological system to climate change. 2006-2011. Petauke and Sinazongwe.

Ongoing: 2006 - 2011

• Cities and climate change: climate change vulnerability and adaptation study aimed at improving information base for effective decision making in climate change adaptation in urban areas. Institutional mapping.

Planned Copperbelt University (Dr. Kasali)

• Community-based adaptation project in Zambia: Reduction of vulnerability and enhancement of the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change. Methodologies: Top-down hot spot mapping; Bottom-up community vulnerability and adaptation assessments; Use of sustainable livelihoods approach (2007 - 2008).

Completed ; 2007 - 2008

• Climate change and development project (2008-2010). Climate change data and site specific evidence for climate change: baseline assessment, climate change hazards, risks and impact on livelihoods.

Ongoing: 2008 - 2010 IUCN Zambia

• Climate change and development project (2008-2010). Climate change related institutional arrangements and coordination: background, update and assessment of institutional roles at all levels and identification of institutions related to climate change coordination in the country. Governance systems and policy formulation processes: identification and catalogue of policies; identification of gaps ad overlaps.

Ongoing

Environmental Conservation Association of Zambia (ECAZ) / Zambia National

• Document information on continued poor yields by ZNFU Members and challenges; Impact and frequency of droughts. Development of mechanisms to address impact of Climate Change in agriculture sector. Some work was done under National Energy Policy on Bio fuels in collaboration with other partners and ZNFU members.

Ongoing

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Institution Initiatives Status Farmers Union (ZNFU)

World Bank Zambia Office

• Economic impact of floods and droughts: direct and indirect financial costs. Planned

Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) – not represented at the workshop.

• The institution plans to undertake studies on the vulnerability of the wildlife sector to the effects of climate change. Detailed studies have also been planned on the vulnerable species such as the Kafue Lechwe, among others.

• The other planned studies will focus on adaptation assessments and enhancement of on-going research on the collection of climatic data to facilitate decision-making.

Planned

Source: Adapted from Second National Communication (SNC) Project Team, 2008 (Workshop Report).

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8. Issues specific case studies It is the Zambian Government’s policy on energy ‘to create conditions that will ensure the availability of adequate supply of energy from various sources, which are dependable, at the lowest economic, financial, social and environmental cost consistent with national development goals’ (MEWD, 2007). In terms of bio-fuels as an energy source, the policy measures include using bio-fuels in the national fuel mix, and to ensure security of supply and stabilisation of prices of fuels by promoting the utilisation of bio-fuels for transport as an alternative to petroleum by: (i) Supporting the growing of energy crops; (ii) Supporting investment in bio-fuels through appropriate incentives; (iii) Supporting the participation of Zambians in the bio-fuels industry as are shareholders; (iv) ensuring that use of bio-fuels for the market is given priority (MEWD, 2007). In response to the policy, the Zambian Government has supported the growing of energy crops as can seen from the number of bio-fuel projects that have been implemented by the private sector. These projects are situated in different parts of the country, and have largely focussed on growing and processing energy crops such as Jathropa into bio-diesel. These energy crops are being cultivated by out-grower schemes involving small-scale farmers, and through establishment of commercial plantations. The available bio-fuel projects in Zambia are presented in Table 11 below. The projects are agricultural in nature and only one has been developed into a CDM project. The Lusaka Sustainable Wood Fuel Project will be undergoing a completeness check by the UNFCCC Secretariat before it can be classified as a CDM. Some Project Idea Notes (PINs) on bio-fuel were also developed by CEEEZ. It was noted that the development of CDM projects in Zambia has been hampered by difficulties in project financing and certification, weak financial base of potential project developers, lack of CDM investment portfolios in local financial institutions lending policies, and complicated and / or lack of approved methodologies.

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Table 11: Bio-fuel Projects in Zambia NO TOWN

/Province TYPE OF PROJECT COMMENTS FIRM OWNING

1 Lusaka Bio-fuels- Biodiesel Processing Plant. Currently not in operation but involve refining the biodiesel.

Oval Bio-fuels

2 Kabwe Bio-fuels- Jatropha out grower scheme.

Small scale farmers have been involved in growing energy crops as a way of local participation in the Bio-fuels industry.

Marli Investments

3 Mpongwe Bio-fuels- Commercial Jatropha plantation

A private company that have established a commercial Jatropha plantation for the purposed of producing biodiesel

E CT Ltd

4 Kaputa Biomass- Gasification A project on Biomass gasification generating 1MW of electricity to be operational by end of next year 2010

GRZ/UNIDO/ZESCO

5 Solwezi Bio-fuels- Jatropha plantation The mine has developed a plantation in their degraded lands. They hope to use the biodiesel to be produced in there machinery.

Kansenshi Mine.

6 Solwezi –Zambezi

Biodiesel- European Union Project on out grower scheme

A out grower scheme on the energy crops funded by the EU and implanted by Northwestern Biopower together with Ministry of Agriculture, provincial office.

North western bio power.

7 Lusaka Lusaka Sustainable Energy Project A CDM project of promoting woodfuel stove using twigs for cooking.

Africa Resources Limited

8 LUSAKA /Western /Southern/Central/Copperbelt

Programme for Biomass Energy Conservation (ProBEC)

Aimed promoting efficient utilisation of woodfuels. Builds capacity in stove builders in efficient technologies.

GRZ/ProBEC/GTZ

9 Choma Bio-fuels- Jatropha out grower scheme.

Small scale farmers have been involved in growing energy crops as a way of local participation in the Bio-fuels industry.

Southern b?iopower.

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Table 12: Bio-carbon projects in the country Name of project

Location in the country

Type (Agriculture /forestry)

Project start year

Climate change mechanism under which the project was initiated (e.g. CDM, REDD, Voluntary market, activities implemented jointly)

Implementing agency

Donor/investor & amount invested

Stage in which the project is in (i.e. planning phase, feasibility phase, implementation phase, MRV phase, payment phase)

Technical details (technologies, enterprises, number of farmers involved, etc)

Frameworks for benefit sharing

Lusaka Sustainable Energy Project

Lusaka Forestry CDM Forestry Department

African Resources Limited

At the stage of Completeness check to be undertaken by UNFCCC Secretariat

A CDM project of promoting wood-fuel stove using twigs for cooking

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9. Conclusions and recommendations This study has reviewed climate variability trends and has attempted to provide some discussion of future scenarios and climate change impacts on key sectors of the economy. The study has revealed the following:

• The country has experienced increased variability in key climate change variables such as precipitations and temperatures. Temperature has been estimated to increase at the rate of 0.6oC per decade. Future scenarios for the period 2010 -2070 indicate further increase in temperature averaging 2oC and reduction in precipitation in the range of 8% and 10% of the normal rainfall.

• Intensity of floods and drought episodes has significantly increased over the last three decades and has affected nearly all sectors of the economy.

• The effects of increased intensity of flood and drought episodes have been destruction of crops, infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, habitations, school buildings and health facilities, and increase in the incidences of hunger and health epidemics, reduced nutrition and natural resource based livelihoods including livestock.

• Vulnerability to climate change cut across all key sectors, but critical vulnerabilities are spatially concentrated in agro-ecological regions I and II.

• The institution, namely the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit in the Office of the Vice-President, established by the Zambian Government to alleviate adverse impacts associated with climatic hazards is currently poorly resourced, both in terms of financial and technical resources, and consequently lacks comprehensive proactive strategies and measures to address climate change induced disasters.

• The NAPA developed by the Zambian Government sets the framework and strategies for implementing climate change adaptation programs in the country but none of the projects and strategies identified and prioritised have been implemented because of lack of financial and technical resources.

• The country has also commenced preparatory works towards developing a national REDD Strategy. The ILUA Database and current review of relevant policies present opportunities for effective formulation and implementation of REDD strategies and other bio-carbon programmes and projects.

• The country is geared to promote CDM Projects through the already established DNA but difficulties in project financing and certification, weak financial base of potential project developers, lack of CDM investment portfolios in local financial institutions lending policies, and complicated and / or lack of approved methodologies have affected development of CDM projects.

• The appraisal of the country’s bio-carbon capacity revealed that Zambia has forest cover estimated at 50 million hectares with forests growing stock estimated at 2.9 billion m3 and above ground biomass estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes. Stored carbon in above ground tree biomass is approximately 2.8 billion tonnes.

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Overall, the available information has revealed that Zambia has significant, unexploited potential to develop and implement climate change programs and benefit from the Africa Bio-carbon Initiative. However, data has shown that the country has inadequate technical and financial capacity to implement climate change adaptation measures as well as inadequate capacity to implement bio-carbon projects. This can seen by the very few bio-carbon projects that have been initiated so far. Financial and technical capacity has been inadequate to implement bio-carbon projects even when such projects are financially and technically viable. The information and analysis, we make the following recommendations:

• There is need to undertake more studies to re-examine the current extent of agro-ecological regions and to isolate climate change hotspots in which climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions should be prioritized.

• The Zambian Government should scale up its efforts to initiate and implement projects and strategies in the NAPA by mainstreaming them in national development policies and programs and allocating adequate funding for their effective implementation.

• Government should ensure that the National REDD strategy, whose preparation has commenced, is completed and adopted as soon as possible. The initial ILUA project (first phase), which has established an information database on land use and estimate of carbon stored in the country’s forests and woodland resources, provides a useful basis for advancing bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects, and specifically initiating programs to benefit from the REDD initiatives.

• The current review of the forestry policy with the anticipated review of institutional and legal frameworks should be used as an opportunity that will provide direction and incentives to attract investment in forest management under the REDD initiatives and also other bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects in the country.

• The Zambian Government, through MTENR, should develop capacity in bio-carbon assessment (monitoring, reporting and verification of forests carbon stocks). It should also promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.

• There is urgent need to develop the capacity of the DNA and its institutional framework to promote CDM projects in the country. Government should spearhead building of technical and financial capacity and institutional framework for promotion of CDM projects and implementation of bio-carbon projects in the country.

• With the rapid expansion of the climate change stakeholder landscape, there is need to improve coordination of climate change activities. The newly established Climate Change Facilitation Unit under the MTENR has the mandate of coordinating all climate change activities in Zambia. It is the hope of many stakeholders this function of coordination will be effectively undertaken.

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