census coverage measurement (ccm) survey overview · 2012. 11. 26. · census coverage measurement...
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Census Coverage Measurement (CCM) Survey
Overview
Webinar, May 17, 2012
Access the Audio:Toll free number: 888-989-4394Participant passcode: PRECCM
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SpeakersHost Stacy Vidal
Public Information Office
Presenter Patrick J. Cantwell,Assistant Division Chief, Sampling and EstimationDecennial Statistical Studies Division
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Release of Estimates on May 22, 2012
• News conference – 10 to 11 a.m.• Technical panel and discussants – 1 to
4:30 p.m.
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Overview
1. What is "coverage of the census"?• Net census coverage error
• Components of census coverage
2. What results will we release?
3. Approach and design of the CCM
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Coverage of the Census
Several ways to measure quality of census
• Census process indicators
• Demographic analysis
• Post-enumeration survey, CCM
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Coverage of the Census (cont.)
Net census coverage (defined as)
= estimate of population from survey – census count
if positive (>0), referred to as net undercountif negative (<0), net overcount
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Coverage of the Census (cont.)
Percent Net coverage (defined as)
if positive (>0), referred to as % net undercountif negative (<0), % net overcount
100 x survey from estimate
count census -survey from estimate
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Percent Net Coverage Error for the U.S.in 1990 and 2000
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1.61%
‐0.49%‐1.0%
‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1990 2000
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Results from the2000 Coverage Survey
• After the original survey: extensive analyses, evaluations, nation-wide computer matching
• Results:– small net overcount, -0.49%– large number of erroneous enumerations
and omissions
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Lessons from 2000
• Must improve determination of census-day residence
• Must improve techniques to detect and resolve duplicate enumerations
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Purpose of the 2010 CCM
• Provide estimates of -- net coverage-- components of census coverage
For-- persons in housing units
(not people in group quarters)-- housing units
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Purpose of the 2010 CCM (cont.)
• Use results to improve future censuses, help plan tests for 2020 Census
• No intent to adjust the census counts
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Components of Coverage for Persons
Census Count
1. Correct enumerations2. Erroneous enumerations
• due to duplication (1 person, 2 or more records)• others (died before 04/01/10, visitor, et al.)
3. Census imputations (no name, all characteristics "imputed," i.e., statistically inserted)
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Example of Components of the Census Count
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Census Count
Whole-Person Census Imputations
Erroneous Enumerations
Correct Enumerations
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Components of Coverage for Persons
Estimate from CCM Survey
1. Correct enumerations (same as in census count)2. Omissions
-- people completely missed in the census
-- people whom we can't verify were enumerated,
e.g., census imputations
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Example of Components of the CCM Estimate
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CCM Estimate
Omissions
Correct Enumerations
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Components of Coverage for Persons
Census Count
1. Correct enumerations2. Erroneous enumerations
• due to duplication• others
3. Census imputations
Estimate from CCM
1. Correct enumerations2. Omissions
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Example of Components:Census Count and CCM Estimate
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Census Count CCM Estimate
Whole-PersonCensus Imputations
ErroneousEnumerations
Correct Enumerations
Omissions
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Components of Coverage for Housing Units
Census Count
1. Correct enumerations2. Erroneous enumerations
• due to duplication• others
Estimate from CCM
1. Correct enumerations2. Omissions
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Coverage Estimates from CCM
Three major groups:
• Demographic or housing unit characteristics
• Geographic areas
• Census operations
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Coverage Estimates for Demographic Groups(Generally at the U.S. Level)
• Race
• Hispanic origin
• Owner or renter
• Age-sex groups
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Coverage Estimates by Geography
• U.S. and (later) Puerto Rico• Regions (East, Midwest, South, West)• States and District of Columbia• Large counties• Large places
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Thresholds For Counties and Places(What is "Large"?)
• For net error: 100,000+ in 2010 census population
• For components of census coverage: 500,000+ in 2010 census population
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Coverage by Census Operations
• By type of enumeration area
• mailout/mailback (with nonresponse follow-up)
• leave the form, mail it back (with follow-up)
• enumerate in person
• In bilingual mailing areas, or not
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Coverage by Census Operations
• Mail return, by weeks of return
• Nonresponse follow-up, by month of interview
• Coverage follow-up, by reason
Note: For some operations, we cannot estimate net error or omissions
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Coverage Estimates for Housing Units
• By occupied (owned or rented) or vacant
• By type of structure – single unit– small multi-unit, 2 to 9 units– large multi-unit, 10+ units– trailers and others
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Approach to Estimation
• Technique for estimating size of population, providing a measure of coverage
• Used in other population studies
• Dual system estimation
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)• Take the census
• Take a (post-enumeration) survey (PES), completely independent of the census
• Interview the people in the PES
• Try to match the people from the PES to their census records; follow up as necessary
• Estimate how many census records are correct? how many PES people were enumerated in census?
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)
Take two samples:
• In the post-enumeration survey (PES), a sample of block clusters, independent of the census, called P Sample
• From the census, a sample of records (enumerations) in the same block clusters, called E Sample
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)Enumerated in PES ?
( P Sample )YES NO Total
Enumerated
in Census ?
( E sample )
YES N11 N12 N1+
NO N21 N22 N2+
Total N+1 N+2 N
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)
(Shaded in green:
Can be measured)
Enumerated in PES ?( P Sample )
YES NO Total
Enumerated
in Census ?
( E sample )
YES N11 N12 N1+
NO N21 N22 N2+
Total N+1 N+2 N
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)
1. E Sample: Measure proportion of correct enumerations in census
• For each census record (enumeration): determine if it is correct or erroneous; duplicate? fictitious? correct?
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)
2. P Sample: Measure rate of coverage (capture) in census
• For all people in P Sample: interview; try to match them to census, determine if census did or did not capture them
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Approach to Estimation (cont.)
(Shaded in red:
Matches, total in P Sample)
Enumerated in PES ?( P Sample )
YES NO Total
Enumerated
in Census ?
( E sample )
YES N11 N12 N1+
NO N21 N22 N2+
Total N+1 N+2 N
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Sample Design for Independent (P) Sample
• Sample of block clusters, averaging 30 units
• As in 2000, exclude group quarters and remote Alaska
• Select sample from subgroups (i.e., stratify by)-- state, DC-- American Indian Reservation, size, tenure
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United States (not including Puerto Rico)
Blocks Clusters (exact) 6,148
Housing Units 170,000
Persons 390,000
Final Size of Independent (P) Sample (approx.)
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Operation Schedule
Listing of Block Clusters Aug ‐ Dec 2009
Initial Housing Unit Operations Jan ‐May 2010
Person Interview Aug ‐ Oct 2010
Person Matching and Follow‐Up Oct 2010 ‐ Apr 2011
Final Housing Unit Operations Mar ‐ Jun 2011
Major Operations and Schedule
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Release of Estimates on May 22, 2012
• News conference – 10 to 11 a.m.• Technical panel and discussants – 1 to
4:30 p.m.• Broadcast live on Census Bureau's
Ustream channel: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/us-census-bureau
• If you plan to attend in-person, RSVP to [email protected]
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For Further Information
Media Public Information [email protected]
General Public Customer Services Center1-800-923-8282 or301-763-INFO (4636)
Press Kit http://2010.census.gov/news/press-kits/briefs/briefs.html
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Additional Slides for Reference
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Approach to Estimation, E Sample
(Shaded in blue:
Census enumerations)
Enumerated in PES ?( P Sample )
YES NO Total
Enumerated
in Census ?
( E sample )
YES N11 N12 N1+
NO N21 N22 N2+
Total N+1 N+2 N
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Approach to Estimation, P Sample
(Shaded in red:
Matches, total in P Sample)
Enumerated in PES ?( P Sample )
YES NO Total
Enumerated
in Census ?
( E sample )
YES N11 N12 N1+
NO N21 N22 N2+
Total N+1 N+2 N
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Estimation, Solve for N
If we can assume that the enumerations (census and survey) are independent:
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))((11
11 N
NNN
NN
NN
1
1
11
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Final Estimator
For each person i in the census (C), estimate probabilities, p, of several types :
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Ci
fp
ppN ))(1)()(( iCB,
i match,
i enum,corr i dd,