census aff

8/7/2019 Census AFF

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/census-aff 1/128

Census Affirmative DDI 2K9

David Herman BQH Lab

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-Wd-Q3F8KM 1

Census 3.0: More Intense Than the Arrow Pointing Down

1AC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 4

1AC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5

1AC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6

1AC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 7

1AC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 9

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 10

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 11

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 12

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 13

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 141AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 15

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 16

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 17

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 18

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 19

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 20

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 22

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 24

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 26

1AC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 27

Inherency (Undercount) ....................................................................................................................................... 31

Inherency (Undercount Hispanic Specific) .................................................................................................. 33

Inherency (Enumerators) .................................................................................................................................... 34

Solvency Extensions (PLIPs Key) ...................................................................................................................... 36

Solvency Extensions (Latinos Key) .................................................................................................................... 40

Solvency Extensions (Obama Can Change the Census) ............................................. ............................ ....... 41

AT: PLIPs Wont Join Because of Benefit Competition......................................... ............................ ............ 42

AT: Privacy Violations ........................ .......................... .......................... ............................ ........................... ....... 43

AT: Too Late ........................ .......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... .......................... 44

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Stimulus Funding Solves ......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ..................... 45

AT: Questionnaires Solve ...................... .......................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ... 46

Link Extensions (State Economies) ................................................................................................................... 47

Link Extensions (Laundry List) .......................................................................................................................... 49

Link Extensions (Representation/Democracy) ........................................ ............................ ......................... 50

Link Extensions (Economy) ................................................................................................................................. 51

Link Extensions (Representation of PLIPs k/t Democracy) ............................................ .......................... 53

Add-On (Democracy Solves Poverty) ................................................................................................................ 56

Add-On (South Asia Democracy) ........................................................................................................................ 58

Link Extensions (Democracy Spillover) ........................ .......................... ........................... .......................... .... 63

Solvency Extensions (South Asia Democracy) .......................... .......................... ............................ ................ 64

AT: Nuclear Weapons Deter Conflict in South Asia ......................... .......................... ........................... ........ 65

Add-On (Ozone Depletion) ................................................................................................................................... 66

Add-On (Global Cooling) ....................................................................................................................................... 70

Brink - Highways Collapsing Now ...................................................................................................................... 73

AT: Stimulus Funding Solved ......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ..................... 74

Link Extensions (Highways k/t Heg)................................................................................................................. 76

Link Extensions (Census k/t Highway Maintenance) .......................... .......................... ............................ ... 78

AT: Increase = Preexisting ......................... .......................... ........................... .......................... .......................... 79

AT: Trade off with Current Jobs ........................ ........................... ........................... .......................... ................. 80

AT: You Decrease Immigration ......................... ........................... ........................... .......................... ................. 81

AT: STATES HIRE WORKERS ......................... ........................... ............................ .......................... ..................... 83

AT: AGENT CP .......................... ........................... .......................... ........................... .......................... ...................... 86

AT: SAMPLING SOLVES CP (1/2) ........................ .......................... ........................... .......................... ................. 88

AT: SAMPLING SOLVES CP (2/2) ........................ .......................... ........................... .......................... ................. 90

AT: END IMMIGRATION RAIDS CP ......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ............ 92

AT: LEGALIZATION/AMNESTY CP (1/2) ....................... .......................... ........................... ........................... ... 94 AT: LEGALIZATION/AMNESTY CP (2/2) ....................... .......................... ........................... ........................... ... 96

AT: State Outreach CP .......................... .......................... .......................... ............................ ........................... ..... 100

AT: Hire Locals CP ................................................................................................................................................ 102

AT: Sweepstakes CP ....................... ........................... .......................... ........................... .......................... ........... 104

AT: Stigma DA ........................................................................................................................................................ 105

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-on Constitutionality .......................... .......................... ........................... .......................... ........................ 109

Add-on Racism ................................................................................................................................................... 110

Add-on Poverty .................................................................................................................................................. 111

AT: Fiscal Discipline Disad ......................... .......................... ........................... .......................... ........................ 114

AT: Politics Disad ........................ .......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ............... 116

Politics 2AC Bipartisan .................................................................................................................................... 117

AT: Military Recruitment Disad ........................ ........................... ........................... .......................... ............... 118

AT: Immigration Disad ....................... .......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ...... 119

AT: Block Grant Specific Disad ...................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ................... 121

AT: Hiring isnt a social service ......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ............... 124

AT: Subsets .......................... .......................... .......................... ............................ .......................... ........................ 126

AT: F/X T Bad .......................... ........................... .......................... ........................... .......................... .................... 127

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1ACContention 1: The Census has issues

The 2010 census is going to be inaccurate

Washington, AP,µ09

(Jesse Washington writer for AP April 4 2009http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/lifestyles/health_med_fit/article/I-MINO0318_20090402-232509/247928/)

The Government Accountability Office recently said the 2010 census is in "serious trouble"; on March6, the GAO reported that the census was still behind schedule and had no clear plan to improve thecounting of minorities. Budgets that were cut during the Bush administration are slowly beingreplenished; the stimulus package included $1 billion for the census. Minority groups still claim thatspending levels for outreach are currently below 2000 levels. "We're doing less advertising than 2000,and there are a lot more people to count," Escobedo said. Buckner said that when 2010 budgets areapproved, the Census Bureau expects to spend more on advertising. The total 2010 census budget isexpected to be between $14 billion and $15 billion, the most ever, he said. Still, Ao, of the Asian

American Justice Center, said "we definitely run the risk of having, possibly, a more inaccuratecensus" than 2000.

Low-income communities are disproportionately undercounted in the census

Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, 2/17/09 (Andrew Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, 2/17/09,http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0217_census_reamer.aspx)

Both sides¶ concerns would be best addressed by focusing on the Census Bureau itself.At issue: Low-income communities, particularly low-income communities of color, are more likely to

be undercounted in the census. These same minority communities also tend to vote Democratic. After the 1980 and 1990 censuses, lawsuits were filed to require the federal government to use censusnumbers ³adjusted´ for the undercount as the basis for congressional apportionment.The Census Bureau¶s own evaluation of the accuracy of its 1990 count tells you why: 5 percent of blacks and Hispanics were lost in the count, but less than 1 percent of whites disappeared

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Contention 2 is Advantages

Advantage 1 is the Economy

An Accurate census is key to the US economy

Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute 7 (Andrew Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute July 17 2007 Preparations for 2010: Is the Census BureauReady for the Job Ahead?)

Businesses of all types (such as retail, manufacturing, services) and sizes (from Target and J.C. Penneyto sole proprietorships) use census data (eitherdirectly from the Census Bureau or through value-addedcommercial vendors) to identify markets, select business locations, make investment decisions in plant,equipment and new product development, determine goods and services to be offered, and assess labor markets. At a Brookings briefing held on Capitol Hill last year, a representative of the National RetailFederation walked through the various essential uses of census data for retail decision-making.12

Nonprofit organizations such as hospitals and community service organizations rely on census data to better understand and serve the needs of their constituencies. Firms and nonprofits throughout thehousing and real estate industry²including home builders, real estate firms, mortgage bankers, homeimprovement firms, and community development corporations²use census data to ascertain needs andopportunities and guide investment and action. One realm in which public and private sectors work intandem is regional economic and workforce development. Census data are essential to efforts by stateand local governments, chambers of commerce, and public-private partnerships to promote businessattraction, expansions, and startups that lead to job creation and a larger tax base.13 ACS figures onmedian household income, wage levels, educational attainment, industry and occupational distribution,self-employment, and journey-to-work help assess economic performance, industry structure, andworkforce resources. Moreover, ACS data on workforce characteristics are important inputs in

determining needs for workforce development efforts by community colleges, universities, for-profitschools, and other training institutions. Thus, census data are a key ingredient to regional economiccompetitiveness, improved workforce skills, job creation, and tax base expansion. Fundamentally,then, census data are essential for the effective operation of the entire $13.6 trillion U.S. economy.Among the various public policy tools available to the federal government (such as grants, tax credits,regulation), statistical programs are among the least expensive and give the greatest return on taxpayer investment. The total annual federal investment in the nation¶s principal statistical agencies is less than$3 billion (a figure that varies with nearness to decennial year). And no statistical program has agreater return than the decennial census. If I were talking about economic returns alone, we might havean argument (even then I think the assertion might be true). However, as I noted in the beginning, thecensus provides the foundation for the functioning of our democracy, and on that we cannot put a

price.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Scenario 1 is the Retail Industry

The Retail Industry is struggling

Healy, Staff Writer, New York Times, µ09

(Jack Healy, Staff Writer, New York Times, 1-14-09, ³Stocks Tumble on Retail Sales Slump,´http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/business/economy/15econ.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss)

A gloomy retail sales report pushed Wall Street sharply lower on Wednesday as investors receivedanother reminder that business was bad.

At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 248.42 points, or 2.9 percent, while the broader Standard & Poor¶s 500 index was down 3.3 percent or 29.17 points. The technology heavy Nasdaq was down 3.6 percent or 56.82 points.

Shares in Europe also were hit hard. The FTSE 100 in London dropped 4.9 percent. All of the major exchanges in Europe fell more than 4 percent.

The government reported on Wednesday that retail sales fell for a sixth consecutive month inDecember, as Americans holstered their credit cards and cut back on spending, even as stores offereddiscounts of 80 percent to entice shoppers.

Sales at department stores, restaurants, gas stations and a host of other retail businesses fell 2.7 percentlast month ² nearly double what economists had been expecting ² and were 9.8 percent lower thansales last December, the Commerce Department reported.

Losses on Wall Street were broad, led by financial, energy and retail stocks. Shares of Wal-MartStores, the world¶s largest retailer, were down about 1.2 percent, and Citigroup fell 22 percent, to$4.60 a share as the beleaguered banking giant prepared to shear off its prized brokerage unit.

An accurate count of immigrants is key save the retail industry

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09 (Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)

Undocumented immigrants have significant consumer power. A full count of undocumentedimmigrants and their incomes provides businesses with the information they need to expand grocery,

retail and restaurant services to serve these markets. New retail and grocery services create moreopportunities for citizens to shop, work and invest in their own communities, while providing a vitalsource of income to local governments through commercial taxes. As large numbers of undocumentedimmigrants live in low-income urban areas, precise demographic data on their purchasing power hasthe potential to attract much needed investments to benefit their often underserved communities.Although undocumented immigrants are largely employed in low-wage industries, they makesignificant contributions to local economies through consumption of goods and services. Economists atthe Center for Urban Economic Development reported that undocumented immigrants in the Chicago

8/7/2019 Census AFF





metropolitan area spend almost $3 billion each year on goods and services in their neighborhoods, andgenerate an additional $2.5 billion in local spending.35 Improved income and demographicinformation on undocumented consumers in Chicago and other cities makes a better case to businessesthat their communities are worth the investment. Data to Support Business Decisions. A more accurate profile of undocumented immigrants will improve the quality of data used to forecast and track

demographic changes

1AC

(CONTINUED, NO TEXT OMITTED)crucial to commercial decisions. Large retail stores, like Target and Home Depot, require locationswith specific population densities to open new stores, and consultants must use currentpopulationstatistics to project how long it takes for certain locations to reach desired numbers.36 Without enoughcensus data on undocumented immigrants and recent arrivals, large retailers have no record of thesecurrent residents. In the last decade, growing numbers of undocumented immigrants have settled innew states like North Carolina and Colorado, in some cases making up large percentages of urban and

suburban population growth. For businesses and retailers, new population growth means new markets;for communities, accurately measuring this growth means an opportunity to attract investment and boost local economies. If businesses use incomplete data on undocumented immigrants, market profiles will underestimate the economic potential of their communities. As the country recovers fromthe recession, businesses will use census data to minimize risk, for example, to determine how manycustomers at a certain income level live in a potential location before investing scarce resources. Withimproved data on undocumented immigrants, businesses will have better information to makedecisions that spur economic demand and support growing communities.

Retail Industry is key to the US economy

Mullin, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation, 7-14-09

Tracy Mullin, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation, 7-14-09, ³NRF letter to TreasurySecretary about CIT,´ http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1092)

By way of background, the National Retail Federation represents an industry with more than 1.6million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees ± about one in five Americanworkers ± and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion.

CIT is one of the very few lenders who act as a ³factor´ for the thousands of small and middle-sizedvendors who supply U.S. retailers with much of the merchandise sold in their stores. As you know, afactor provides the short-term financing that allows a vendor to produce goods once an order from aretailer has been received. Without factors, suppliers could be forced to shutter their doors or retailers

would be required to pay up front and draw down on their own credit lines at a time when creditremains difficult to obtain. If CIT were to fail, a chain reaction would be set off that could very wellleave retailers with a shortage of merchandise during the crucial holiday season this fall.

If the criterion for whether a financial institution should receive government assistance is whether it is³too large to fail,´ CIT is most certainly too important to the retail industry to be allowed to fail, andthe retail industry is too important to the economy to be placed under additional stress. A failure of CIT would impact thousands of retailers and, consequently, the consumer spending that makes up two-

8/7/2019 Census AFF





thirds of our nation¶s economy. That cannot be allowed to happen at a time when retailers are alreadystruggling to survive the national recession.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Economic Collapse Causes Global Nuclear War

Mead Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations 9 (Walter Russell, ³Only Makes You Stronger,´ The New Republic, 2/4/09,

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--butit has other, less reassuringmessages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life duringthe 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution;the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the listof financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in1928, butthe Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the currentcrisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi,Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get theworld economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Scenario 2 is State Economies

States are funded by the fed --- 45% of their budget comes from the fed government

Larson, Ph.D research director, South Carolina Policy Council, 5/15/08 (Sven R. Larson, Ph.D research director, South Carolina Policy Council, 5/15/08http://www.heritage.org/Research/budget/bg2136.cfm)

Medicaid is a case in point, but the problem is much bigger. Today, federal aid to states and statematching funds account for 45 percent of state spending, and that share is rising. As a result, statespending is gradually being reduced to the mere execution of federal spending programs. In addition to blurring the lines of accountability, this trend also erodes state fiscal independence.

States will lose federal money because of the undercount

Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09 (Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09

http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census_money.html)Census information was used to distribute about $340 billion in Medicaid funds to states in 2008.Large cities are the most likely victims of undercounts²which often result in challenges by the nation¶s big cities to census results.California, Texas, and Georgia²states with growing Hispanic communities²suffered the biggestdollar losses because of undercounts in the 2000 census.Los Angeles County lost more money than any other county because of undercounts in the 2000 census²anestimated $636 million from eight programs whose funding levels are most affected by the census.it

Sufficient federal funding key to save state economies from the recession

Edwards, Economic Policy Institute, µ09(Katherine Edwards, Economic Policy Insitute, 1-21-09, ³Federal grants key to recovery for states inrecession ,´ http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/snapshots_20090121/)

Virtually all states are required by law to have a balanced budget, meaning that each year a state canonly spend as much as it receives in taxes. Because of the current recession, revenue from taxes is verylow and most states now face troubling budget shortfalls.

The chart shows how badly state budgets were affected by the 2001 recession, clearly illustrating how,after the nation slides into recession, it can take years to climb out of the deep fiscal hole.

Total state budget shortfall

Such recessionary shortfalls force states to either raise taxes (to increase revenue) or cut expenditures,usually by eliminating or gutting valuable public services in areas like health care or education. Butcutting expenses and raising taxes only exacerbate the recession¶s effect because both further reducedemand in the state¶s already weakened economy. That is why federal grants to the states are socrucial: they help states maintain needed public service levels, combat the recession, and provide afighting chance at eventually building up reserves to weather the next downturn.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Independently further decline of the Californian economy deepens the economic recession and stops

economic recoveryChristian Science Monitor ¶09

(³California crisis a threat to US economic recovery´ 7/1/09http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/07/01/california-crisis-a-threat-to-us-economic-recovery/)

After lawmakers in Sacramento failed to meet a midnight deadline Tuesday to close the state¶s $24 billion budget gap, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state fiscal emergency Wednesday. Hehoped to prod politicians into coming to an agreement over spending cuts and keep the state¶s financialcrisis from deepening. Politicians continued to wrangle over cuts Wednesday that would meet theapproval of Governor Schwarzenegger, who has demanded a plan that balances the budget.Meanwhile, the state¶s controller prepared to issue IOUs to creditors if the state can¶t agree on aspending plan by Thursday. California is not the only state struggling to pass a budget, but the depth of its crisis and the size of its economy raises the financial problem to a level of national concern.³It¶s

easy to make fun of all those greedy, flaky Californians, but the national economy can¶t recover withan anchor the size of California holding it back,´ says Dan Schnur, political scientist at the Universityof California in Berkeley and a former Republican strategist. Home to more than one-tenth of allAmericans and an annual economy of $1.7 trillion, California is a national retail behemoth and enginefor the overall economy ± in real estate, auto sales, technology, construction, and agriculture.Economists worry that the budget crisis could harm the state just when it is starting to show signs of improvement. The trouble in California ³makes everything worse´ nationwide, says James Galbraith, a political scientist at the University of Texas in Austin. Several other states began the fiscal year Wednesday without a budget. Arizona, Connecticut, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, andPennsylvania are all facing delays in passing spending plans, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Mr. Galbraith proposes national aid to states. ³One has to ask to ask why Bank of

America is more important than the State of California,´ he says. Economic stimulus money isavailable to states, but it is not nearly enough to fix California¶s financial woes, Mr. Schnur says. TheObama administration declined Schwarzenegger¶s request for financial help earlier this month, but didnot close the door entirely. If Washington is worried about putting money in Sacramento¶s hands, thereare ways around that, said Jean Ross, executive director of the California Budget Project, a nonpartisan public policy research group. ³Washington could further increase its investment in health programssuch as Medi-Cal and the Healthy Families Program, where the federal government already pays themajority of costs,´ she wrote recently in the San Diego Union-Tribune. While Schwarzenegger hasstressed that he¶s not looking for a federal bailout, the state¶s treasurer has asked for some federal help.Like many other states, California wants federal guarantees that would allow it to buy short-term loansat lower interest rates. Schwarzenegger has given lawmakers 45 days to come up with the necessary

cuts to balance the state budget. Says Schnur:If lawmakers cannot find some common ground soon,this impasse ³could end up leading to real fiscal and economic meltdown.´

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Scenario Three is Crime:

Census Data is key to mapping crime and law enforcement

Reamer,Fellow at Brookings Institute,¶06 (Andrew Reamer fellow at Brookings Institute 6/26/06http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2006/0626communitydevelopment_reamer.aspx)

Every day, police commanders must make decisions about how to effectively deploy scarcemanpower, equipment, and other resources. Crime mapping has emerged as a critical tool in ensuringthat these scarce resources are used to the best effect. While New York City's CrimeStat is the most prominently heralded crime mapping effort, there are thousands of similar efforts in states andcommunities, large and small, across the U.S. As a Department of Justice publication indicates, "(A)nunderstanding of where and why crimes occur can improve attempts to fight crime. . . . Mapping crimecan help law enforcement protect citizens more effectively in the areas they serve." Crime mapping

applications at the state and local levels rely heavily on Census Bureau's demographic and housingdata. Crime mapping is most effective when analysts can see the relationship between various types of criminal incidents (e.g., homicides, drug dealing) and neighborhood characteristics (risk factors such as poverty, population density, and vacant housing), pinpoint where crimes are most likely to occur (hotspots), and focus police resources accordingly. For state and local crime mappers, the Census Bureau isthe single most important source of population and housing data at the neighborhood level. Membersconcerned about methamphetamines will find the work of the Illinois State Police of particular interest.The state police use decennial census data to map potential "hot spots . . . that should be closelymonitored for new methamphetamine activity." Six of the eight risk factors used to identify meth hotspots rely on census figures,.

Violent crime wears on consumer confidence by creating a fear in personal and excessive spendingDe Mello and Zilberman, ¶07(João M P De Mello, Departamento de Economia, PUC-Rio, and Eduardo Zilberman, Department ofEconomics, New York University, May 2007, ³Does Crime Affect Economic Decisions? An EmpiricalInvestigation of Savings in a High-Crime Environment,´)

Crime taxes consumption through three different mechanisms. First, the utility from consuming islower in a dangerous environment for instance; a night out on the town is less enjoyable if one isworried about getting mugged. Second, a higher crime rate increases the probability of a bad stateoccurring (being victimized), thus distorting an individual¶s preferences. For example, in high-crimeenvironments, the consumption of flashy goods, such as sports cars or designer clothing, increases the probability of robbery and theft. Third, crime reduces consumption opportunities as businesses may

respond to crime by reducing their hours of operation or relocating to a safer neighborhood. Broadlyspeaking, these three mechanisms increase the price of consumption. Anecdotal evidence supports theassertion that crime taxes consumption. A Consumer Expectation Survey conducted in the city of Riode Janeiro showed that violence was the main reason for consumer¶s pessimism, not inflation or unemployment.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Consumer confidence is key to the economy

Lee Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi ¶03(Jim Lee, Professor of Economics at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Oct. µ02 ³What is the role of

consumer confidence in the business cycle, and how does it affect the economy?´)

Consumers play a major role in the economy. This is because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. output. Since households¶ economic outlook affects their spending behavior, their expectations influence the direction of economic activity in the business cycle. Consumer confidence,or optimism about the overall economy, is commonly referred to as ³animal spirits´ after a famouseconomist, John Maynard Keynes. Keynes asserted that the Great Depression of the 1930s was largelyattributable to a collapse of public confidence, which led to dramatic declines in consumer and business spending. Today, consumer confidence receives a great deal of media attention. Risingconsumer confidence is widely interpreted as a precursor to higher future household spending. It istherefore a leading indicator of the overall economy. If consumers are more optimistic about the

economy, they will tend to spend more, especially on durable goods and other large purchases. Ahigher overall demand for goods and services will subsequently lead to higher output and employment.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Advantage 2 is Education

An Accurate Census is uniquely key for education- planning and federal aid

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

(Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)

An undercount of children in undocumented families could result in overcrowded and understaffedclassrooms and a lack of supportive programs for American schoolchildren in high-poverty districtsthroughout the country. Historically, children in undocumented families, an estimated 5.5 million in2008, are among the most vulnerable to being undercounted.20 Even native-born children of undocumented immigrants are at risk of being missed by the census because they live withundocumented families and are more likely to be low-income urban dwellers than children of naturalized or native-born parents.21 The undercount of children in undocumented families negativelyimpact the allocation of Title I funding, the primary federal education program for low-incomestudents. In 2008, state educational agencies received over $13 billion for Title I distribution to school

districts based on census poverty estimates.22 Since nearly one in seven poor children in the U.S. livesin an undocumented household,23 undercounting these young people could significantly distort theoverall count of low-income children, leaving schools in their communities with fewer resources thanthey would otherwise receive. Of course, public funding and planning decisions go beyond the federaland state levels. The same census data informs state decisions and allocations for town and countyservices and helps local governments make decisions on a neighborhood level, deciding everythingfrom how to route buses to where to dig sewer lines, plan parks,or pick up garbage. Precise local datais particularly crucial in the realm of public education. As noted above, children growing up inundocumented families are at high risk of going uncounted. Yet if large numbers of these children aremissed in the census, their school districts will have insufficient demographic data to plan for theeducation of all students. School districts and local governments need precise demographic data on

schoolage children to determine the need for new schools, as well as residence information to settle onnew school locations. In addition, census data is used to forecast population trends for school-agedchildren²districts with a large cohort of children in primary school today may need to build additionalsecondary school facilities in upcoming years. This is particularly important for school districts inimmigrant gateways, as research consistently shows that immigrant women have higher fertility levelsthan their native-born peers.24 The key funding and planning decisions made for these and dozens of other programs make an accurate census an economic and political imperative for regionalgovernments and their constituents.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1ACScenario 1 is Competitiveness

Education solves competitiveness

Gordon, (D-TN) chair of the Science and Technology Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, 2007(Bart Gordon, (D-TN) chair of the Science and Technology Committee, U.S. House of Representatives,

2007, ³U.S. Competitiveness: The Education Imperative,´ http://www.issues.org/23.3/gordon.html ) Most recently they have come to prominence with the publication of reports from the NationalAcademies, the Electronics Industries Alliance, and the Council on Competitiveness, each of whichargues that the United States is in danger of losing out in the economic competition of the 21st century.There is no single cause for the concerns being raised, and there is no single policy prescriptionavailable to address them. However, there is widespread agreement that one necessary condition for ensuring future economic success and a sustained high standard of living for our citizens is aneducation system that provides each of them with a solid grounding in math and science and preparesstudents to succeed in science and engineering careers. Unless the United States maintains its edge ininnovation, which is founded on a well-trained creative workforce, the best jobs may soon be foundoverseas. If current trends continue, along with a lack of action, today¶s children may grow up with a

lower standard of living than their parents. Providing high-quality jobs for hard-working Americansmust be our first priority. Indeed, it should be the central goal of any policy in Congress to advanceU.S. competitiveness. The United States is in direct competition with countries that recognize theimportance of developing their human resources. The numbers and quality of scientists and engineers being educated elsewhere, notably in China and India, continue to increase, and the capabilities of broadband communications networks make access to scientific and engineering talent possiblewherever it exists. The result is that U.S. scientists and engineers must compete against their counterparts in other countries, where living standards and wages are often well below those of theUnited States. Policies for maintaining U.S. competitiveness must consider how to ensure that U.S.scientists and engineers are educated to have the skills and abilities that will be in demand by industryand will allow them to command salaries that will sustain our current living standards. Because the

foundation for future success is a well-educated workforce, the necessary first step in anycompetitiveness agenda is to improve science and mathematics education. Unfortunately, allindications are that the United States has some distance to go in preparing students for academicsuccess in college-level courses in science, mathematics, and engineering. Current data show that U.S.students seem to be less prepared than their foreign contemporaries. The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), often referred to as the nation¶s report card, has tracked the academic performance of U.S. students for the past 35 years. Achievement levels are set at the basic (partialmastery of the knowledge and skills needed to perform proficiently at each grade level), proficient, andadvanced levels. Although student performance in mathematics improved between 1990 and 2000,most students do not perform at the proficient level. In the NAEP assessment for grades 4 and 8 in2003 and for grade 12 in 2000, only about one-third of 4thand 8th-grade students and 16% of 12th-

grade students reached the proficient level. In science, progress has also been slow. Between 1996 and2000, average NAEP science scores for grades 4 and 8 did not change, and grade 12 scores declined.For grades 4 and 8 in 2000, only about one-third of 4th- and 8th-grade students achieved the proficientlevel, and only 18% achieved that level by grade 12. The United States also fares poorly ininternational comparisons of student performance in science and mathematics, such as the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which is coordinated by the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD). PISA focuses on the reading, mathematics, and sciencecapabilities of 15-year-olds and seeks to assess how well students apply their knowledge and skills to

8/7/2019 Census AFF





problems they may encounter outside of a classroom. In the recently released 2003 PISA results, U.S.students, compared with contemporaries in 49 industrial countries, ranked 19th in science and 24th inmathematics. U.S. students¶ average science scores did not change from the first PISA assessment in2000, whereas student scores increased in several OECD countries. Consequently, the relative positionof U.S. students declined as compared with the OECD average. A separate set of international

comparisons²the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)² tracked the performance of students in three age groups from 45 countries. Although U.S. 4th-grade students performed quite well (above the international average in both mathematics and science), by the 8thgrade, U.S. students scored only slightly above the international average in science and below theaverage in mathematics. By the 12th grade, U.S. students dropped to the bottom, outperforming onlyCyprus and South Africa.

1AC

Competitiveness is key to US hegemony and economy

Segal Senior Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations 04

[Adam, Foreign Affairs, ³Is America Losing Its Edge?´ November / December 2004,http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20041101facomment83601/adam-segal/is-america-losing-its-edge.html]

The United States' global primacy depends in large part on its ability to develop new technologies andindustries faster than anyone else.For the last five decades, U.S. scientific innovation and technologicalentrepreneurship have ensured the country's economic prosperity and military power. It was Americanswho invented and commercialized the semiconductor, the personal computer, and the Internet; other countries merely followed the U.S. lead. Today, however, this technological edge-so long taken for granted-may be slipping, and the most serious challenge is coming from Asia. Through competitive tax policies, increased investment in research and development (R&D), and preferential policies for science and technology (S&T) personnel, Asian governments are improving the quality of their scienceand ensuring the exploitation of future innovations. The percentage of patents issued to and science

journal articles published by scientists in China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan is rising. Indiancompanies are quickly becoming the second-largest producers of application services in the world,developing, supplying, and managing database and other types of software for clients around theworld. South Korea has rapidly eaten away at the U.S. advantage in the manufacture of computer chipsand telecommunications software. And even China has made impressive gains in advancedtechnologies such as lasers, biotechnology, and advanced materials used in semiconductors, aerospace,and many other types of manufacturing. Although the United States' technical dominance remainssolid, the globalization of research and development is exerting considerable pressures on theAmerican system. Indeed, as the United States is learning, globalization cuts both ways: it is both a potent catalyst of U.S. technological innovation and a significant threat to it. The United States willnever be able to prevent rivals from developing new technologies; it can remain dominant only by

continuing to innovate faster than everyone else. But this won't be easy; to keep its privileged positionin the world, the United States must get better at fostering technological entrepreneurship at home.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1ACU.S hegemony solves extinction --- multiple scenarios

Kagan, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic

fellow at the German Marshall Fund, µ07 Robert Kagan,senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and senior transatlantic

fellow at the German Marshall Fund,9-07, ³End of Dreams, Return of History,´ Stanford University PolicyReview, http://www.hoover.org/publications/ policyreview/8552512.html)

Finally, there is the United States itself. As a matter of national policy stretching back across numerousadministrations, Democratic and Republican, liberal and conservative, Americans have insisted on preserving regional predominance in East Asia; the Middle East; the Western Hemisphere; untilrecently, Europe; and now, increasingly, Central Asia. This was its goal after the Second World War,and since the end of the Cold War, beginning with the first Bush administration and continuingthrough the Clinton years, the United States did not retract but expanded its influence eastward acrossEurope and into the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. Even as it maintains its position asthe predominant global power, it is also engaged in hegemonic competitions in these regions with

China in East and Central Asia, with Iran in the Middle East and Central Asia, and with Russia inEastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. The United States, too, is more of a traditional than a postmodern power, and though Americans are loath to acknowledge it, they generally prefer their global place as ³No. 1´ and are equally loath to relinquish it. Once having entered a region, whether for practical or idealistic reasons, they are remarkably slow to withdraw from it until they believe theyhave substantially transformed it in their own image. They profess indifference to the world and claimthey just want to be left alone even as they seek daily to shape the behavior of billions of peoplearound the globe.The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations and would-benations is a second defining feature of the new post-Cold War international system. Nationalism in allits forms is back, if it ever went away, and so is international competition for power, influence, honor,and status. American predominance prevents these rivalries from intensifying ² its regional as well as

its global predominance. Were the United States to diminish its influence in the regions where it iscurrently the strongest power, the other nations would settle disputes as great and lesser powers havedone in the past: sometimes through diplomacy and accommodation but often through confrontationand wars of varying scope, intensity, and destructiveness. One novel aspect of such a multipolar worldis that most of these powers would possess nuclear weapons. That could make wars between them lesslikely, or it could simply make them more catastrophic. It is easy but also dangerous to underestimatethe role the United States plays in providing a measure of stability in the world even as it also disruptsstability. For instance, the United States is the dominant naval power everywhere, such that other nations cannot compete with it even in their home waters. They either happily or grudgingly allow theUnited States Navy to be the guarantor of international waterways and trade routes, of internationalaccess to markets and raw materials such as oil. Even when the United States engages in a war, it is

able to play its role as guardian of the waterways.In a more genuinely multipolar world, however, itwould not. Nations would compete for naval dominance at least in their own regions and possibly beyond. Conflict between nations would involve struggles on the oceans as well as on land. Armedembargos, of the kind used in World War I and other major conflicts, would disrupt trade flows in away that is now impossible. Such order as exists in the world rests not only on the goodwill of peoples but also on American power. Such order as exists in the world rests not merely on the goodwill of peoples but on a foundation provided by American power. Even the European Union, that greatgeopolitical miracle, owes its founding to American power, for without it the European nations after

8/7/2019 Census AFF





World War ii would never have felt secure enough to reintegrate Germany. Most Europeans recoil atthe thought, but even today Europe¶s stability depends on the guarantee, however distant and onehopes unnecessary, that the United States could step in to check any dangerous development on thecontinent. In a genuinely multipolar world, that would not be possible without renewing the danger of world war. People who believe greater equality among nations would be preferable to the present

American predominance often succumb to a basic logical fallacy. They believe the1AC

[continues No text deleted]order the world enjoys today exists independently of American power. They imagine that in a worldwhere American power was diminished, the aspects of international order that they like would remainin place. But that ¶s not the way it works.International order does not rest on ideas and institutions. It isshaped by configurations of power. The international order we know today reflects the distribution of power in the world since World War ii, and especially since the end of the Cold War. A differentconfiguration of power, a multipolar world in which the poles were Russia, China, the United States,India, and Europe, would produce its own kind of order, with different rules and norms reflecting the

interests of the powerful states that would have a hand in shaping it. Would that international order bean improvement? Perhaps for Beijing and Moscow it would. But it is doubtful that it would suit thetastes of enlightenment liberals in the United States and Europe.The current order, of course, is notonly far from perfect but also offers no guarantee against major conflict among the world ¶s great powers. Even under the umbrella of unipolarity, regional conflicts involving the large powers mayerupt. War could erupt between China and Taiwan and draw in both the United States and Japan. War could erupt between Russia and Georgia, forcing the United States and its European allies to decidewhether to intervene or suffer the consequences of a Russian victory. Conflict between India andPakistan remains possible, as does conflict between Iran and Israel or other Middle Eastern states.These, too, could draw in other great powers, including the United States. Such conflicts may beunavoidable no matter what policies the United States pursues. But they are more likely to erupt if the

United States weakens or withdraws from its positions of regional dominance. This is especially true inEast Asia, where most nations agree that a reliable American power has a stabilizing and pacific effecton the region. That is certainly the view of most of China ¶s neighbors. But even China, which seeksgradually to supplant the United States as the dominant power in the region, faces the dilemma that anAmerican withdrawal could unleash an ambitious, independent, nationalist Japan. Conflicts are morelikely to erupt if the United States withdraws from its positions of regional dominance. In Europe, too,the departure of the United States from the scene ² even if it remained the world¶s most powerfulnation ² could be destabilizing. It could tempt Russia to an even more overbearing and potentiallyforceful approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Although some realist theorists seem to imaginethat the disappearance of the Soviet Union put an end to the possibility of confrontation betweenRussia and the West, and therefore to the need for a permanent American role in Europe, history

suggests that conflicts in Europe involving Russia are possible even without Soviet communism. If theUnited States withdrew from Europe ² if it adopted what some call a strategy of ³offshore balancing´ ² this could in time increase the likelihood of conflict involving Russia and its near neighbors, whichcould in turn draw the United States back in under unfavorable circumstances. It is also optimistic toimagine that a retrenchment of the American position in the Middle East and the assumption of a more passive, ³offshore´ role would lead to greater stability there. The vital interest the United States has inaccess to oil and the role it plays in keeping access open to other nations in Europe and Asia make itunlikely that American leaders could or would stand back and hope for the best while the powers in the

8/7/2019 Census AFF





region battle it out. Nor would a more ³even-handed´ policy toward Israel, which some see as themagic key to unlocking peace, stability, and comity in the Middle East, obviate the need to come toIsrael ¶s aid if its security became threatened. That commitment, paired with the Americancommitment to protect strategic oil supplies for most of the world, practically ensures a heavyAmerican military presence in the region, both on the seas and on the ground. The subtraction of

American power from any region would not end conflict but would simply change the equation. In theMiddle East, competition for influence among powers both inside and outside the region has raged for at least two centuries. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism doesn ¶t change this. It only adds a new andmore threatening dimension to the competition, which neither a sudden end to the conflict betweenIsrael and the Palestinians nor an immediate American withdrawal from Iraq would change. Thealternative to American predominance in the region is not balance and peace. It is further competition.The region and the states within it remain relatively weak. A diminution of American influence wouldnot be followed by a diminution of other external influences. One could expect deeper involvement by both China and Russia, if only to secure their interests. 18 And one could also expect the more powerful states of the region, particularly Iran, to expand and fill the vacuum. It is doubtful that anyAmerican administration would voluntarily take actions that could shift the balance of

1AC

[Continues no text deleted] power in the Middle East further toward Russia, China, or Iran. The world hasn ¶t changed that much.An American withdrawal from Iraq will not return things to ³normal´ or to a new kind of stability inthe region. It will produce a new instability, one likely to draw the United States back in again. Thealternative to American regional predominance in the Middle East and elsewhere is not a new regionalstability. In an era of burgeoning nationalism, the future is likely to be one of intensified competitionamong nations and nationalist movements. Difficult as it may be to extend American predominanceinto the future, no one should imagine that a reduction of American power or a retraction of Americaninfluence and global involvement will provide an easier path.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1ACScenario 2 is Poverty

An accurate census is key to increase education for PLIPs

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09 (Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)Accurate census figures are necessary to target these scarce resources most effectively. As AudreySinger of the Brookings Institution notes, ³Census data are used to understand local trends in detail;many organizations rely on data to derive information on how many immigrants reside in their community«languages spoken and English language proficiency, their poverty status and whether they have become U.S. citizens.´29 The case for integration²and for the census data necessary toachieve it²is even stronger when we consider the children of undocumented immigrants, nearly threequarters of whom are U.S. citizens. English proficiency lies at the center of a child¶s ability to do wellin school, attend college and enter the workforce. The vast majority of children in undocumentedfamilies are U.S. citizens and will remain in our country for their lifetimes²yet many of these childrenare English language learners (ELLs).30 Unfortunately, studies have shown that the ELL population is

particularly vulnerable to dropping out of the educational system. The Migration Policy Institute findsthat language-minority students with low levels of English proficiency are less likely to finish highschool than their peers.31Better demographic data on the children in undocumented families leads to better-funded programming to develop their language skills, improve their educational outcomes, and bolster their contributions to our society. The Department of Education¶s English Acquisition Grant program, which received nearly $650 million in 2008, uses census figures to distribute funds to stateeducational agencies for English language education programs.32 Specifically, the Departmentdisburses 80 percent of grant funds to states based on their reported number of limited English proficient children and the remaining 20 percent on the number of immigrant children.33 Targetingthese funds properly requires an accurate count of students from undocumented families.

Education solves PovertyHawkes Professor of Child Development and Associate Dean Family and Consumer Sciences University

of California 3

Glenn R. Hawkes Professor of Child Development and Associate Dean Family and Consumer SciencesUniversity of California, Davis 6/2/03 (³EARLY EDUCATION-KEY TO POVERTY PREVENTION´http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/17540/1/ar660077.pdf )

Personal development is a vital ingredient in breaking the poverty cycle. There is little hope for ameliorating the long-term impact of poverty if programs are not geared to promote individualized personal development. Fostering individual developmentas well as community developmentmust be amajor goal if we are to achieve any measure of victory in our war on poverty . Furthermore, personaldevelopment needs to be started early. There is grave danger of developing a program of too little, too

late, and then generalizing that attempts at fostering personal development are prone to failure. Yet thefailure may very well be a consequence of too little, too late. Programs with a personal developmentingredient need also to be sufficiently intensive and extensive to assure abundant reinforcement of positive growth. Research in learning has amply demonstrated that constant reinforcement is essentialif initial gains are to become permanent gains. The environment needs to be so developed that a positive home reinforces a positive school and a positive community environment reinforces both thehome and the school. Follow through is as important in individual development as it is in golf.Articulation of opportunity for development is a principle of breaking the poverty cycle that is being

8/7/2019 Census AFF





demonstrated in program after program.

8/7/2019 Census AFF


8/7/2019 Census AFF





UN member nations, including the United States, all nations have a moral and legal obligation toensure the basic needs and well-being of all their citizens. Among the rights outlined in the Declarationare the rights to food, housing, health care, jobs at living wages, and education. Over half a centuryafter signing this document, despite huge economic gains and a vast productive capacity, the UnitedStates has sorely neglected its promise. In a land whose founding documents proclaim life, liberty, and

justice for all, we must hold this nation to its promises.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Advantage 3 is Highways

Our highways are screwed --- inefficient and insufficient allocation of funds prevents maintenance

The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, µ09 (The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, ¶09, ³Rough Roads Ahead: FixThem Now or Pay for It Later,´ 5-09, http://roughroads.transportation.org/RoughRoads_FullReport.pdf)

ROUGH ROADS AHEAD: SAVING AMERICA¶S HIGHWAYS

America¶s $1.75 trillion public highway system is in jeopardy. Years of wear and tear, unrelentingtraffic, an explosion of heavy trucks, deferred maintenance, harsh weather conditions, and soaringconstruction costs have taken their toll on America¶s roads. While the American Reinvestment andRecovery Act of 2009 will provide $27 billion for highway projects, that money will barely make adent in highway maintenance, preservation, and reconstruction needs. The recent AASHTO Bottom

Line report documented the need for all levels of government to invest $166 billion each year inhighways and bridges. More than half of that amount would be needed for system preservation.SavingAmerica¶s highways demands more than short- term stimulus funds and quick fixes based on availablefunding. It will require a greater and smarter investment of transportation dollars to ensure a new and better transportation program.

Census is key to transportation infrastructure

Christopher Metropolitan Planning Specialist 2 Ed Christopher Metropolitan Planning Specialist December 2k2http://www.trbcensus.com/articles/ctpphistory.pdf

Within the context of the Federal transportation program there are hundreds of decisions on how and

where federal money is spent. Of the $217 billion authorized by the Transportation Efficiency Act for the 21 Century (TEA21, PL 105-178), approximately 79 percent is targeted for the Federal-AidHighway program that is programmed by and through the states and local agencies. For the states andlocal agencies to program these funds, they must satisfy specific laws and regulations. To satisfy thelaws, agencies must have technical planning processes. These processes are built upon sound data for small geographic areas. The JTW questions provide the small area data elements that are critical building blocks in this process. Thus, the JTW data provides unparalleled inputs that support³transportation, and advancing America¶s economic growth and competitiveness domestically andinternationally through efficient and flexible transportation.´ (From TEA 21 summaryhttp://www.fhwa.dot.gov/tea21/sumover.htm) As we begin the 21st Century, there is a great deal of concern over the continuation of the mechanism that brought the transportation community the JTW

data for the last 40 years. It is unlikely that the planning needs and requirements for this type of datawill cease. Given this the transportation community must be ready to respond to whatever policydecisions are made.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Highways are key to readiness and deterrence

Pike, µ05

(John Pike, one of the world's leading experts on defense, space and intelligence policy, Director of GlobalSecurity.org, Director of the Space Policy, Cyberstrategy, Military Analysis, Nuclear Resource andIntelligence Resource at the Federation of American Scientists, member of the Bulletin of the AtomicScientists, the Peace Research and European Security Studies Center, and the Verification TechnologyInformation Centre of London, frequent consultant to the UN, 4-26-05, ³Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET),´ globalsecurity.com, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/strahnet.htm)

The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) system of public highways provides access,continuity, and emergency transportation of personnel and equipment in times of peace and war. The61,000-mile system, designated by the Federal Highway Administration in partnership with DOD,comprises about 45,400 miles of Interstate and defense highways and 15,600 miles of other public

highways. STRAHNET is complemented by about 1,700 miles of connectors²additional highwayroutes linking more than 200 military installations and ports to the network.

The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) is a system of public highways that is a key deterrentin United States strategic policy. It provides defense access, continuity, and emergency capabilities for movements of personnel and equipment in both peace and war. Most large military convoys use theStrategic Highway Network. These routes connect military bases to the interstate highway network andinclude over 15,000 miles of roadway nationally. STRAHNET roadways are those which would beused for the rapid mobilization and deployment of armed forces in the event of war or peacekeepingactivity.

That¶s key to heg

Donnelly, Resident Scholar at AEI , 2003(Thomas Donnelly, Resident Scholar at AEI 2-1-03, ³Resident Scholar at AEI ,´http://www.aei.org/publications /pubID.15845/pub_detail.asp)

The preservation of today's Pax Americana rests upon both actual military strength and the perceptionof strength. The variety of victories scored by U.S. forces since the end of the cold war is testament to both the futility of directly challenging the United States and the desire of its enemies to keep pokingand prodding to find a weakness in the American global order.Convincing would-be great powers,rogue states, and terrorists to accept the liberal democratic order--and the challenge to autocratic forms

of rule that come with it--requires not only an overwhelming response when the peace is broken, but awillingness to step in when the danger is imminent. The message of the Bush Doctrine--"Don't eventhink about it!"--rests in part on a logic of preemption that underlies the logic of primacy.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1AC

Thus the Plan: The United States Federal Government should hire persons in the United States whose

incomes fall below the Federal Poverty Threshold regardless of citizenship status as enumerators for the

2010 Census.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





1ACContention 3 is Solvency

Hiring PLIP¶s is key to increased PLIP responses to the census

Advancing Equality, Asian-American Justice Center, 07

(Advancing Equality, Asian-American Justice Center, 07http://www.advancingequality.org/attachments/files/226/Challenges_and_Concerns_2010_census.pdf)

It is important for the Census Bureau to ensure that the person knocking on the door for the 2010Censuslook like and sound like the person answering the door. This is particularly useful in collectingcomplete information from immigrant respondents, where they are more likely to be mobile, havecomplex household arrangements and lack English-language skills, thus making them harder to count.People aremore likely to respond to enumerators who share their same cultural background, languageand othersuch factors.

The poor do not trust the government

Chavel, Debie, and Monod, Fondation pour L¶Innovation Politique, 06 (Cecile Chavel, Franck Debie, and Jerome Monod, Fondation pour L¶Innovation Politique, 1/25/06,http://www.fondapol.org/fileadmin/uploads/pdf/documents/Etudes_Integration_et_appartenances_aux_USA_E NG.pdf)Each year, over 2 billion is given to these groups representing various religions. In general, the poor do not trustgovernment. They feel the government has wronged them. Its representatives often treated them harshly. Thegovernment speaks to them in a language they do not understand. They feel scorned and rejected. On the otherhand, the poor trust their pastor, priest or rabbi. It is therefore in the interest of the government to work withthese people. People want more than material resources, especially the youth. Spiritual needs are very strongThey want their God-given human dignity to be respected. People experience this when they try to rebuildthemselves, when they need to change their lives and no one offers to help. People need to believe in something

They need certainty, values, generosity and authority. Look at this picture of Saint Therese of Lisieux on thewall. It¶s magnificent. And I can tell you, this woman, her meditation, her prayers, even as I am speaking righnow, are brightening the lives of millions of Americans. She gives them hope and strength to live. More thanever, faith is a central need in this country. This can clearly be seen in the beginning of the revival of theCatholic Church, the power that African-American churches wield, or the growth of evangelical churches. 95%of Americans say they believe in God. The issue of values is very important. The 2004 election, incidentally,was won on this issue

Poor communities are tightly knit and isolated from outside communities --- an accurate census relies on

hiring people within poor communities

World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08

(World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08vle.worldbank.org/gdln/fsharing/uploads/file1958.doc)

In poor communities, social capital is key:given the isolated nature of poor communities, tight-knitsocial capital tends to be strong while loose ties to other networks and institutions outside thecommunity tend to be weak;social capital offers an untapped resource, if properly linked and promoted, to help poor households develop other forms of capital;social capital has been critical to help poor households fill the institutional vacuum left by weak states, privatization of enterprises, and conflict

8/7/2019 Census AFF





situations.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Hiring non-citizens is key for an accurate census

Vargas Executive Director National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO)

Educational Fund 7 (Arturo Vargas Director National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) EducationalFund July 9 2k7

http://informationpolicy.oversight.house.gov/documents/20070710184036.pdf)

In order to accurately reach and count our nation¶s Latino residents in 2010, the Census Bureau mustemploy a diverse workforce, from its highest managerial positions to its field enumerators. The Bureauhas now started to open temporary regional offices, and it is critical that it hires a diverse group of Office Directors to lead its regional operations. With respect to local enumerators, the Bureau musthire individuals who are familiar with their local communities and their residents. For many Latinoneighborhoods, these workers must be bilingual in English and Spanish. It is also likely that someindividuals who possess the best skills to work as enumerators in the Latino community may not beU.S. citizens. We urge the Bureau to implement a waiver in its hiring practices that would allow work-authorized non-citizens to take on enumerator positions. This is particularly important for regions of

the country where there emerging Latino populations are comprised of large numbers of non-citizensand non-English speaking populations, such as the South. In order to ensure the diverse workforceneeded for the 2010 Census enumeration, the Bureau must also strengthen its existing efforts toimplement a well-designed and effective recruitment, retention and promotion plan to increase thenumber of Latinos at the Census Bureau

The Federal Government needs to take an active role in recruiting PLIP¶s

Narasaki President and Executive Director, Asian American Justice Center 8 (Karen NarasakiPresident and Executive Director, Asian American Justice Center September 23 2008http://www.advancingequality.org/attachments/files/185/KKN_testimony_for_senate_census_oversight_hearing

.pdf)

The Census Bureau should use even more creative and unconventional methods to recruit and hireCensus workers for the 2010 census, including making better use of technology, removing financialdisincentives to work for the Census Bureau, enhance the incentives, and increasing local advertisingrelated to Census job opportunities. Potential candidates for the Welfare-to-Work program should bemore informed regarding the benefits of income exclusions. Recruiting in senior communities should be increased. The Census Bureau should hire recruiters specific to minority communities. Recruitmentshould take place at the natural gathering areas for minority communities (churches, stores, ballroomdances, karaoke bars, restaurants, and conferences). The decision to continue policies allowing waiversof Census income and citizenship requirements for census workforce, thereby opening Bureau

positions to U.S. citizens or legal residents and encouraging the hiring of legal residents to meet theneed for bilingual personnel, must happen earlier. During Census 2000, the policy guidance came outtoo late to be helpful and was arbitrarily applied. This highlighted one of the problems prevalent duringCensus 2000: the insufficient coordination between the national headquarters in Washington andregional and local offices. This led to some regional offices not fully understanding official CensusBureau policy, which resulted in inconsistent or inaccurate application of policies across regions. Itcaused confusion in the community over policies covering the hiring of noncitizens and the publicityof language assistance options.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





8/7/2019 Census AFF





Inherency (Undercount)

Obama says undercounting is a problem.

Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09(Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09

http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census.html)President Barack Obama, who acknowledges concerns about minority undercounts,has increasedfunding for the 2010 census by $1 billion in his stimulus package. Of that money, $250 million isallocated for partnership and outreach, including $13 million for Hispanic advertising.But just funding the Census Bureau isn¶t enough.

Low-income communities of color are disproportionately undercounted in the censusReamer, Brookings Institute fellow, 2/17/09(Andrew Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, 2/17/09,

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0217_census_reamer.aspx)Both sides¶ concerns would be best addressed by focusing on the Census Bureau itself.At issue: Low-income communities, particularly low-income communities of color, are more likely to be undercounted in the census. These same minority communities also tend to vote Democratic. After the 1980 and 1990 censuses, lawsuits were filed to require the federal government to use censusnumbers ³adjusted´ for the undercount as the basis for congressional apportionment.The Census Bureau¶s own evaluation of the accuracy of its 1990 count tells you why: 5 percent of blacks and Hispanics were lost in the count, but less than 1 percent of whites disappeared.

The census is poorly prepared, harming accuracyReid Wilson, online reporter for The Hill, 3/5/09(Reid Wilson, online reporter for The Hill, 3/5/09, http://www.targetmarketnews.com/storyid03090901.htm)

GAO officials said the Census Bureau has insufficient procedures and policies in place to conduct anaccurate count, or even an accurate estimate of how much the count would cost.Tests of six systems set to operate next year remain only partially complete, including such basics asautomation of field data collection and the master address list, which witnesses called key to successfuloperation of the census. David Powner, the director of information technology management issues atthe GAO, said it is "highly unlikely" that every system would be tested before the census begins nextyear."The 2010 census is approaching rapidly, with Census Day less than 13 months away," Carper said.

"The [Census] Bureau has faced many operational and organizational challenges that have jeopardizedits success."

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Census Bureau cutbacks on accuracy means the poor are even more vulnerable to being uncounted.

Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 08

(Garance Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 4/28/08,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20080428/ai_n25372898/)

The Census Bureau has scaled back its dress rehearsal for the once-a-decade national head count,

raising fears thatthousands of soldiers, immigrants and other hard-to-reach people will go uncountedwhen the population survey is conducted in 2010."It's like sending up a rocket for a moon shot and not doing the final test on how to land," warnedformer Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt, who oversaw the agency during the 2000 count.The dry run is now under way in two states, with more than a half- million households receivingquestionnaires from the Census Bureau. But the agency dropped such routine follow-up practices assending census takers door-to-door to check whether homes on the bureau's mailing list are vacant or occupied, and dispatching workers to figure out the best way to reach soldiers on military bases.Because the dry run helps shape the way the national head count is ultimately carried out, some politicians and demographers worry that the census will miss members of the military, inmates,homeless people, college students, migrant workers and immigrants, both legal and illegal.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Inherency (Undercount ± Hispanic Specific)

Several reasons why Hispanics will be severely undercounted.Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09(Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census.html)

As the nation ramps up for next year¶s census, an ongoing debate on whether Latinos will beundercounted takes on even bigger political stakes.Hispanics often fall through the cracks when the federal government conducts its national nose countevery ten years. Language barriers, distrust of government²especially among undocumented workersand older Latinos²and jobs that force workers to move frequently prevent an accurate count of thenation¶s Hispanics. By some estimates, those factors resulted in an undercount of 1.3 million Latinos in2000, the last time there was a national census.The U.S. Census Bureau has taken steps to try to better count the nation¶s Latino community next year.But there¶s one factor it didn¶t plan on when it began preparing for the 2010 census years ago: therecession. The faltering economy has displaced people and that, advocacy groups say, will produce an

undercount of Hispanics and other minorities.

Latinos are a growing demographic, making undercounting especially problematic.

Sanchez, Columnist, Washington Post, 09(Marcela Sanchez, Columnist, Washington Post, 4/09http://www.poder360.com/article_detail.php?id_article=1604)

Republican Sen. Judd Gregg called differences over next year¶s decennial census ³only a slightcatalyzing issue´ in his decision to withdraw as nominee for secretary of commerce. But the politicalwrangling over the 2010 population count, which will determine the number of House seats per state,the redrawing of political districts within states and the allocation of billions of dollars in federal funds,

has been anything but slight. The big story for the 2010 census will be the big Latino count. Since thelast census in 2000, Latinos have become the largest minority in the United States and account for half of U.S. population growth.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Inherency (Enumerators)

The Census operation needs more takers in order to gather accurate statistics

Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor, 3/18/09 (Terri Ann Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and FederalStatistics, 3/18/09, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0318_census/20090318_census.pdf)

The funding picture for 2010 is a little fuzzier because theadministration has not released a more detailed budget request and won¶tuntil next month. The President said in his budget outline that he is proposing full funding for Census operations in 2010 over and above the$1 billion in total additional funds included in the stimulus package.I¶m hopeful that the remaining $750 million in the stimulusmoney will be used primarily to reinforce the army of Census takersfanning out across the country next year, which is what I think Congressintended, to visit the unresponsive households, of course, because I think flooding low mail response areas with Census takers early in the follow-up

phase, next April, will help sustain the momentum that surrounds Censusday, and it¶ll move the completion rates rapidly upward in manycommunities, which builds public confidence. It also results in moreaccurate data collection, to collect the data as close to Census day as possible, and it leaves more time and resources to count the most difficulthouseholds.

Census bureau is in desperate need of enumerators.

Fischman et al., Senior editor, science and tech, 2k (Josh Fischman, et al., Senior editor, science and tech, The Chronicle of Higher Education, author, 4/3/00,³WORK & HOME - Grabbing job hunters by the hair´)

Turning up the heat on what is already the hottest job market in modern history, the Census Bureau plans to hire over 400,000 "enumerators" in the next six weeks for its once-a-decade count. The jobs--most of which consist of knocking on doors and helping folks fill out census forms-- are temporary,lasting from one day to several weeks, and offer no benefits. But they offer flexible hours andsurprisingly high wages. Many of the jobs can be squeezed into evenings and weekends. And startinghourly wages range from $8.25 in low-cost areas like Duncan, Okla., to $18.50 in expensive cities like New York.The bureau says it especially needs applicants in tight job markets like Austin, Texas, where theunemployment rate is just 2.3 percent. Delton Jolly, chief recruiter for the Austin area, jokes that he'sso desperate to fill his 2,000 jobs he's stopping passersby and "grabbing 'em by the hair."

Applicants must take a 28-question test of map reading, arithmetic, and other skills and pass a securityscreening. Details: (888) 325-7733 or www.cen sus.gov/jobs2000.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Anybody can apply to be an enumerator, including the poor.

Pangonis, Staff writer, Republican Herald, 3/19(Dustin Pangonis, Staff writer, Republican Herald, 3/19/09, ³Census work available in area´)

Mar. 19--The U.S. Census Bureau is currently seeking 120 to 140 enumerators in Schuylkill and Berkscounties, according to Ann Domski, area manager at the U.S. Census Bureau's Harrisburg office.

Domski said enumerators complete the address canvassing operation for the bureau, using hand-heldcomputers to compile a list of names and addresses to which the Census will mail its questionnaires."Basically it is visiting every household in the area that they were assigned, either verifying byobservation or knocking on every door if it's a multi-unit building," Domski said.Domski said the enumerators will work up to 40 hours a week for six to 10 weeks at an hourly rate of $13.25."Anybody and everybody" is welcome to apply, Domski said. There are no specific education or experience requirements, but applications do need to schedule for a test."There is a 30-minute test that measures their skills and abilities for the job, and it's very standard, basic skills: following directions, a little bit of map-reading, a little bit of arithmetic," Domski said."It's quite simple."

Thousands of census takers are needed

U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09(U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09,http://www.mag.maricopa.gov/pdf/cms.resource/POPTAC_2009-01-27_ATT1_Census-2010-Recruitment-Brochures_58648.pdf)

Conducting the census is a huge undertaking, and it requires us to fill a wide variety of positions. For the 2010 Census, thousands of census takers are needed for temporary jobs. These employees updateaddress lists and conduct interviews with community residents. Most positions require a driver¶slicense and use of a vehicle

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Solvency Extensions (PLIP¶s Key)

The poor do not trust the government

Chavel, Debie, and Monod, Fondation pour L¶Innovation Politique, 06 (Cecile Chavel, Franck Debie, and Jerome Monod, Fondation pour L¶Innovation Politique, 1/25/06,http://www.fondapol.org/fileadmin/uploads/pdf/documents/Etudes_Integration_et_appartenances_aux_USA_E NG.pdf)

Each year, over 2 billion is given to these groups representing various religions. In general, the poor donot trust government. They feel the government has wronged them. Its representatives often treatedthem harshly. The government speaks to them in a language they do not understand. They feel scornedand rejected. On the other hand, the poor trust their pastor, priest or rabbi. It is therefore in the interestof the government to work with these people. People want more than material resources, especially theyouth. Spiritual needs are very strong. They want their God-given human dignity to be respected.People experience this when they try to rebuild themselves, when they need to change their lives andno one offers to help. People need to believe in something. They need certainty, values, generosity andauthority. Look at this picture of Saint Therese of Lisieux on the wall. It¶s magnificent. And I can tell

you, this woman, her meditation, her prayers, even as I am speaking right now, are brightening thelives of millions of Americans. She gives them hope and strength to live. More than ever, faith is acentral need in this country. This can clearly be seen in the beginning of the revival of the CatholicChurch, the power that African-American churches wield, or the growth of evangelical churches. 95%of Americans say they believe in God. The issue of values is very important. The 2004 election,incidentally, was won on this issue.

Poor communities are insular

World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08 (World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08

vle.worldbank.org/gdln/fsharing/uploads/file1958.doc)Poverty has many dimensions. Social capital ± the norms and networks that enable collective action ± impacts all of them. In the United States there is a popular adage: ³It¶s not what you know; it¶s who

you know´ that determines success. A Czech Proverb warns ³Do not protect yourself by a fence, butrather by your friends.´ Today a plethora of evidence supports centuries of intuition regarding thecentrality of social relations. Research shows that a person¶s social relationships and institutionalaffiliations contribute significantly to his or her well-being. Social norms and networks mediate accessto resources and opportunities. In isolated, under-serviced poor communities, these social ties arecritically important in the fight against poverty.

Poor communities are tightly knit and isolated from outside communities --- an accurate census relies on

hiring people within poor communities

World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08 (World Bank Institute, international institution fighting poverty, 08vle.worldbank.org/gdln/fsharing/uploads/file1958.doc)

In poor communities, social capital is key:given the isolated nature of poor communities, tight-knit social capital tends to be strong while loose

8/7/2019 Census AFF





ties to other networks and institutions outside the community tend to be weak;social capital offers an untapped resource, if properly linked and promoted, to help poor households developother forms of capital;social capital has been critical to help poor households fill the institutional vacuum left by weak states, privatization of enterprises, and conflict situations.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Hiring PLIP¶s, especially those from minority groups, will help maximize accuracy

Hill, director Advisory Committee for African Americans in past censuses, 3/5/09 (Robert Hill, director Advisory Committee for African Americans in past censuses, 3/5/09, ³GAO: Accuracy of 2010 census count could be jeopardized due to untested technology´,Reid Wilson, online reporter for The Hill,http://www.targetmarketnews.com/storyid03090901.htm)

"I don't think people appreciate the importance of the census," said Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), thesubcommittee's acting ranking Republican. "A fair and accurate counting is critical, and no stateshould be denied representation or funding for essential services."Meanwhile, directors of censuses past urged greater spending on a major advertising campaigninvolving both paper fliers and paid media campaigns to encourage minority and immigrant participation."The advertising campaign has got to be on a scale comparable to what a private advertising companywould use to introduce a new product," said Barbara Everitt Bryant, who directed the 1990 census.That advertising campaign is just one of the recommendations witnesses made for reaching minority populations. Witness Robert Hill, who directed the Advisory Committee on the African AmericanPopulation during several previous censuses, also said the bureau should hire a more racially diverse

workforce in order to better approach minority communities, as well as contract with minority-ownedadvertising firms to reach minority viewers.

Hiring PLIP¶s is key to increased responses to the census

Advancing Equality, Asian-American Justice Center, 07 (Advancing Equality, Asian-American Justice Center, 07,http://www.advancingequality.org/attachments/files/226/Challenges_and_Concerns_2010_census.pdf)

What challenges are associated with the Census Bureau¶s advertising campaign?While the Census Bureau has invested some money in advertising for Census 2010, more money is

needed in the budget for in-language advertising to target language minority communities. During the2000 Census, the Census Bureau¶s advertising campaign did not reach many ethnic groups who useinlanguagemedia to get daily news and information. The 2000 campaign only targeted a small percentageof the LEP population; it failed to market to ethnic groups who have the highest LEP rates and thehighest percentage of linguistically isolated households. Many Asian languages and cultures wereoverlooked during the campaign, and the advertising agency was forced to make generalizations acrossall Asian ethnicities.Why is it important to recruit and hire minority enumerators for the Census?It is important for the Census Bureau to ensure that the person knocking on the door for the 2010Censuslook like and sound like the person answering the door. This is particularly useful in collecting

complete information from immigrant respondents, where they are more likely to be mobile, havecomplexhousehold arrangements and lack English-language skills, thus making them harder tocount.People aremore likely to respond to enumerators who share their same cultural background,language and othersuch factors.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





The Census needs to hire PLIP¶s to improve accuracy

Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and Federal Statistics,6/4/09(Terri Ann Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and FederalStatistics, 6/4/09, http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:HSV8MEgQ5OAJ:www.nonprofitvote.org/Download-

document/Nonprofits-and-the-2010-Census-June-4th-2009.html+2010+census+hire+out+of+communities&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

30,000 Questionnaire Assistance Centers One of your staff members paid by Census to assist people infilling out and returning their form at your community-based nonprofit40,000 Be Counted SitesBe Counted forms are census questionnaires available at community locations, for people who did notreceive a census form in the mail or who believe they were not otherwise included on any other censusquestionnaire.Be counted forms will be available in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Russian.The form should be picked up and mailed back in the attached postage-paid envelope.7. Promote Jobs

Census jobs are good jobs!The 2010 Census will be the largest peace-time mobilization of temporary jobs in our country¶shistory. The Census wants and needs to hire people from hard-to-count communities.You can help your communities find out about jobs with the Census.

People in Poverty are key ± only they know the local language and culture

Narasaki President and Executive Director, Asian American Justice Center 8 (Karen NarasakiPresident and Executive Director, Asian American Justice Center September 23 2008http://www.advancingequality.org/attachments/files/185/KKN_testimony_for_senate_census_oversight_hearing.pdf)

The Census Bureau needs to recruit about 3 million temporary workers to get the hundreds of

thousands of temporary workers around the nation needed to conduct the 2010 Census. One hundredfifty Local Census Offices (LCOs) will open in Fall 2008 and the remaining 344 LCOs will open byFall 2009. While the LCOs will begin hiring in early 2009, peak hiring will take place in Marchthrough June of 2010 with the opening of the remaining LCOs. Address canvassing will require150,000 workers in 2009, and the Non-Response Follow-Up effort will require 700,000 in 2010.32 It isimportant that the Census Bureau recruit and hire people who are ³indigenous´ to the communitieswhere they will be working because of the knowledge these workers bring ± from the local knowledgeof language to the local knowledge of neighborhood and culture.CBOs can help identify potentialcandidates for these positions from traditionally hard-to-count communities, including those withlanguage skills, as well as advertise these job postings to their members and constituents. Furthermore,CBOs can help train them to pass the test for these positions.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Solvency Extensions (Latinos Key)

An accurate count of Latinos is key to the overall census

Vargas Executive Director National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO)

Educational Fund 7 (Arturo Vargas Director National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) EducationalFund July 9 2k7http://informationpolicy.oversight.house.gov/documents/20070710184036.pdf)

Mr. Chairman, we need the 2010 Census to produce the most accurate count of our nation¶s populationas possible. Census data are the fundamental building blocks for reapportionment and redistricting,which determine the contours of our representative democracy. Policymakers and planners at all levelsof government rely on these data to make important decisions about their services, such as the number of teachers that will be needed in their classrooms, the best places to build new roads, or the best wayto provide job training. The accuracy of Census data is also critical for the effective allocation of government funding for schools, hospitals and other vital social programs. These decisions affect thelives of all Americans. To secure an accurate count of our nation¶s population, an accurate count of

the 44.3 million Latinos who are now the nation¶s second-largest and fastest-growing population groupis imperative. An undercount of such a large segment of the U.S. population means a failed Census. Anaccurate count of the Latino community is necessary if we are to make sound policies for theeconomic, social and political well-being of the entire country.

Including immigrants in the census is key

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09 (Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)

In his testimony before the House Subcommittee on Federalism and the Census, Andrew Reamer of the Brookings Institution said: ³It is no understatement to say that the vitality of America¶s businessesand economy relies significantly on a successful census.´34 Indeed, virtually all businesses and privatesector organizations use demographic, income and residence information from the census to determine potential market locations. To miss undocumented immigrants in these estimates is to miss vitalmarket information that stimulates local commercial investment and economic growth.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Solvency Extensions (Obama Can Change the Census)

Obama has the influence to push census reformReamer, Brookings Institute fellow, 2/17/09(Andrew Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, 2/17/09,http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0217_census_reamer.aspx)

Nonetheless, given the survey¶s political implications, every White House takes an active interest inthe decennial census. The Bush White House was significantly involved in the management of the2010 Census. The notion that the Obama White House would work closely with Commerce over thecensus is consistent with historical practice. No matter the level of White House interest, however, it can not force the Census Bureau to publishnumbers that deviate from actual tabulations.Certainly, because the hard-to-count tend to vote Democratic, the Obama White House has a greater incentive to use its influence to support an objective, accurate census than did the Bush White House.Reality is that the Republican Party benefits from an undercount of minorities.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: PLIP¶s Won¶t Join Because of Benefit Competition

The bureau can hire poor or near-poor persons for census taking without any loss of welfare benefits.

Scire, Director, U.S. Government Accountability Office, 07(Matthew J. Scire, Director, U.S. Government Accountability Office, 7/26/07

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d071132t.pdf)For the 2000 Census, the Bureau used an aggressive recruitment strategy in partnership with state,local, and tribal governments, community groups, and other organizations to help recruit employeesand obtained exemptions from the majority of state governments so that individuals receivingTemporary Assistance to Needy Families, Medicaid, and selected other types of public assistancewould not have their benefits reduced when earning census income, thus making census jobs moreattractive. Further, the Bureau used a recruitment advertising campaign, totaling over $2.3 million,which variously emphasized the ability to earn good pay, work flexible hours, learn new skills, and dosomething important for one¶s community. Moreover, the advertisements were in a variety of languages to attract different ethnic groups, and were also targeted to different races, senior citizens,retirees, and people seeking part-time employment. The Bureau also advertised using traditional outlets

such as newspaper classified sections, as well as more novel media including Internet banners andmessages on utility and credit card bills.Through its local census offices, the Bureau plans to recruit,hire, and deploy a diverse workforce that looks like and can relate to the people being counted. Localcensus offices will open for the 2010 Census in October 2008. The Bureau has developed a PlanningDatabase that local and regional offices use to prepare recruiting plans. The Bureau expects thoseoffices to use the database to identify areas where field staff aremore difficult to recruit and other areaswhere certain skills²such as foreign language abilities²are needed. The Bureau will update thePlanning Database for every census tract in the United States for the 2010 Census, using manyvariables from Census 2000. These variables include: Census 2000 mail return rates; household size;median household income; percentage of persons living in poverty; number of single personhouseholds; highest level of education achieved; percentage of linguistically isolated households (i.e.,

where no person 14 or over speaks English at least ³very well´); and percentage of persons on publicassistance.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Privacy Violations

Census bureau data is confidential. No chance of other departments accessing data and using for other

purposes.US Census Bureau, 06

(U.S. Census Bureau Responses to theRecommendations of theCensus Advisory Committee of ProfessionalAssociations, 5/19/06http://www.census.gov/cac/census_advisory_committee_of_professional_associations/docs/2006_May_Recommendations_CAPCA.pdf)

The Census Bureau understands the Committee¶s concerns about administrative records andwouldonly use the data from other sources if those data can be shown to improve the ultimatedata products.The Census Bureau also is cognizant of potential concerns, including those youhave raised. Title 13,United States Code, provides stringent confidentiality protections to these data, just as it does to censusand survey information.Those constraints would prevent the Census Bureau from handing over linkedrecord files to other agencies in the future.Nonetheless, we will test the messages we will use to informthe public of our plans to minimizeany concerns they may have. Furthermore, the Census Bureau has

no intent to replacerespondent replies with data from administrative records.

Privacy violations are not an issue.US Census Bureau, 06(U.S. Census Bureau Responses to the Recommendations of the Census Advisory Committee of ProfessionalAssociations, 5/19/06http://www.census.gov/cac/census_advisory_committee_of_professional_associations/docs/2006_May_Recommendations_CAPCA.pdf)

The Census Bureau uses statistical methods to ensure that the statistics we release do not identifyindividuals or businesses. These methods include extensive review and analysis of all our dataproducts, as well as disclosure avoidance methodologies, such as data suppression andmodification

to screen out data that might identify a specific individual or business. To ensure these measures areimplemented, the Census Bureau has an internal Disclosure Review Board (DRB). This board sets theconfidentiality rules for all data product releases. A checklist approach is used to ensure that potentialrisks to the confidentiality of the data are considered and addressed before any data are released. Inaddition, our Data Stewardship efforts extend beyondthe law to ensure that any decisions we make willfulfill our ethical obligations to respect respondent privacy and protect the confidentiality of theinformation entrusted to us. Our Privacy Principles - Necessity, Openness, Respect andConfidentiality- remind us of this promise andhelp to ensure the protection of personal informationthroughout all of our activities. Further,they help to guide us as we design surveys to consider respondents¶ rights and concerns.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Too Late

Peak recruitment efforts will begin this fall and peak next spring

U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09 (U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/)

Our recruiting efforts for 2009 census taker jobs has ended. However, ourpeak recruitment effort begins in the fall of 2009, with the majority of hiring taking place in the spring of 2010. If you wouldlike to prepare for the upcoming recruitment effort, you may download and print the Census PracticeTest. The practice test is similar to the actual test, which measures basic skills, abilities, and knowledgerequired to perform a variety of census jobs.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Stimulus Funding Solves

Funding doesn¶t solve participation

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09 (Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)

The 2010 Census will be the most expensive, and in some ways, the most challenging in recent history.It is encouraging that the Obama Administration has made improving the undercount a priority, as ithas allocated $250 million in stimulus funding for the Bureau to reach minority and hard-to-count populations. The Bureau will use a significant portion of these funds to partner with organizations thatcan target U.S. residents in their communities and in their native languages. Improved funding does notnecessarily lead to improved response rates for what is essentially a volunteer survey²it takes the participation of communityorganizations, leaders and neighborsto make sure that the hardest-to-reach populations are fully counted. Going forward, it is our hope that all U.S. residents, regardless of citizenship, see the value in a successful census and support the inclusion of the millions of

undocumented families living and working in their communities.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Questionnaires Solve

Persons on the ground are key to an accurate census

Bryant , Former Director, U.S. Census Bureau 9

(Barbara Bryant Former Director, U.S. Census Bureau 3/5/09 lexis)Those hard-to-count are best reached with one-on-one contacts from local people and organizationsthey know and trust. Communicating the fact that the Census Bureau will not give information fromtheir census fonns to any other organization or individual is a very hard message to get across. Onlytrusted sources can convince the reluctant, fearful, or uninformed that the Census Bureau does not giveinformation to the INS, the IRS, landlords, ex-spouses, or mothers-in law.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (State Economies)

States¶ need the money granted by the census to be full and accurate

Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and Federal Statistics,

6/4/09(Terri Ann Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and FederalStatistics, 6/4/09, http://74.125.95.132/search?q=cache:HSV8MEgQ5OAJ:www.nonprofitvote.org/Download-document/Nonprofits-and-the-2010-Census-June-4th-2009.html+2010+census+hire+out+of+communities&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

Allocation of $400 billion annually in federal program funds, based in whole or in part on CensusBureau data*More than half (roughly $230 billion) allocated for Dept. of Health and Human Services programsExamples: Medicaid ($197B); SCHIP ($5.5B); Substance Abuse block grants ($1.6B); NutritionServices for the elderly ($565M); Maternal & Child Health Services ($529M); Community MentalHealth Services ($401M)

More than $37 billion allocated annually for Dept. of Education programsExamples: Special Education grants to States ($10.6B); Pell Grants ($10.4B); Title I grants ($7.7B);Improving Teacher Quality State grants ($2.8B)Why is an accurate census important?States receive average of $1,200 per person annually through census-data driven federal formula grantsThat¶s $12,000 over the decade for each person counted in the census!

Here¶s a laundry list of programs affected by lowered funding from undercounts.Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, 5/12(Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, 5/12/09, http://www.mnhomelesscoalition.org/prepare-now-for-2010-census/headlines)

Over 300 billion dollars of federal funds are awarded to states each year based on the census. For example, the census impacts the amount of funds awarded for such activities as new roads, hospitals,schools, child-care and senior citizen centers, and homeless assistance programs.

States lose a ton of money because of undercounts.Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09(Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census_money.html)

Census information was used to distribute about $340 billion in Medicaid funds to states in 2008.Large cities are the most likely victims of undercounts²which often result in challenges by thenation¶s big cities to census results.

California, Texas, and Georgia²states with growing Hispanic communities²suffered the biggestdollar losses because of undercounts in the 2000 census.Los Angeles County lost more money than any other county because of undercounts in the 2000census²an estimated $636 million from eight programs whose funding levels are most affected by thecensus.

Immigrant undercount hurts fed funding to California.

Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 08

8/7/2019 Census AFF





(Garance Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 4/28/08,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20080428/ai_n25372898/)

Also, without face-to-face contact, the bureau could have trouble understanding if its techniques areencouraging participation among immigrants, said William Frey, a demographer at the University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution.

"You've got an incredibly high amount of distrust of the government right now, and there are somesignificant obstacles that need to be overcome in this dress rehearsal," said state Assemblyman FelipeFuentes, a Southern California Democrat. "An undercount in California would mean a severe reductionin our fair share of federal dollars."In 1990, about 838,000 Californians went uncounted, and the state lost out on $223 million inMedicaid and other federal programs, according to the Government Accountability Office.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Laundry List)

Accurate census data is key to democracy, public policy, and the economy

Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, 2/17/09

(Andrew Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, 2/17/09,

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0217_census_reamer.aspx)First, the census operation is enormously complex. The 2010 Census will be the nation¶s biggest peacetime operation, involving 1.4 million temporary staff, 500 field offices, and about $14 billion inexpenditures.Second, the nation has much at stake. An accurate census is essential to the proper functioning of our democracy, public policy, and the economy.Census statistics are used to apportion and redistrict congressional seats, and, by extension, the number of electoral votes per state as well as state and local legislative district boundaries, while alsoinforming Voting Rights Act compliance.2010 Census data will drive the geographic allocation of well over $400 billion in annual federalfunding for programs like Medicaid, highway construction, and education.

State and local governments will also use census data to make similarly important spending decisions.Businesses of all types (such as retail, manufacturing, services) and sizes (from Wal-Mart to sole proprietorships) rely on census data to make investment decisions.

Accurate census data is crucial in ensuring functional public policy, including states and local

governments

Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, 3/18/09(Andrew Reamer, Brookings Institute fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, 3/18/09,http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0318_census/20090318_census.pdf)

Regarding public policy, the decennial census and theannual updates of population size and characteristics derived from the

decennial census are essential for effective government performance. In2007 by our analysis, $377 billion in federal funds were distributed acrossthe nation on the basis in whole or in part of these statistics, the censusstatistics. Census data provide key benchmarks for federal enforcementof civil rights laws and court decisions concerning work force and housingdiscrimination. Census data play an important role in a wide variety of federal programs and policies such as those concerned with adulteducation, small business development, veteran and senior citizen health,affordable housing, transportation planning, women in the labor force,farm workers, immigrants, disabled students, and ground water contamination -- to give but a few examples.

Very importantly, state and local governments rely heavily oncensus data to make investment decisions regarding, for example, theneeds for school buildings, highways, affordable housing, work forcetraining, and access to health care. How best to deploy criminal justiceresources and how to plan for and respond to disasters.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Representation/Democracy)

Census count key to determining redistricting and federal aid to states.Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 08(Garance Burke, Associated Press Writer, San Francisco Chronicle, 4/28/08,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20080428/ai_n25372898/)

The government uses census data to determine how many representatives each state should get inCongress and to distribute hundreds of billions of dollars in federal aid."The cutbacks in the dress rehearsal will no doubt affect the accuracy of the 2010 census," said Rep.Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. "The only question is how bad will it be and is there a chance to recover before 2010?"

Accurate counting is key to democracy through fair representation and challenging political corruption.Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09(Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census_redistricting.html)

³The census is the basis of our democracy,´ says Arturo Vargas, executive director of the NationalAssociation of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Since Hispanics are fueling population growthin several states, an accurate count²followed by a redrawing of congressional districts to give thegrowing Latino community the representation it deserves²could send more Latino lawmakers toCongress.President Barack Obama will receive the official state population counts in December 2010,kicking off the process of dividing 435 U.S. House of Representative seats proportionately among the50 states. Latino advocates will carefully monitor that process to make sure the count is fair. So willRepublicans, who plan to challenge claims of minority undercounts.³Adjustments produce false counts and are used for political purposes,´ says Brock McCleary,spokesperson for Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the top Republican on a Housesubcommittee charged with census oversight.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Economy)

1. The real estate industry relies upon the census

Barta Writer for CIRE magazine 2 (Gretchen Barta Writer for CIRE magazine Jan 2k2 http://www.ciremagazine.com/article.php?article_id=221)

Although its primary purpose is to provide population counts used in apportioning seats in the Houseof Representatives, the decennial census also is used by many in the private sector to increase productivity. Commercial real estate professionals in particular can benefit from the information byanalyzing it to perform site selection and create market reports, among other tasks. ³I not only use theinformation in brokerage but in appraising as well. Value trends are more confidently predicted by positive growth rates in census information,´ says Philip J. McGinnis, CCIM, GRI, GAA, president of Dover Consulting Services in Dover, Del. Census information also can help in ³determining thefeasibility of development projects and highest and best-use analysis to determine what to build andhow much of it,´ adds Kathleen Rose, CCIM, president of Rose & Associates in Davidson, N.C.Commercial real estate professionals who use census data to analyze various markets are in highdemand, since many clients expect brokers to have this information. ³Inquisitive brokers will figure

this out because ... national tenants need the demographics,´ McGinnis says.

2. Business of all size relies on the census for demographic information

Barta Writer for CIRE magazine 2 (Gretchen Barta Writer for CIRE magazine Jan 2k2 http://www.ciremagazine.com/article.php?article_id=221)

Applying the Census Brokers and developers can use census data in most aspects of site selection anddevelopment for all commercial property types. Retail users in particular benefit greatly from thisinformation. Skip Duemeland, CCIM, chief executive officer of Duemelands Commercial inBismarck, N.D., started using census data 10 years ago to lease retail and restaurant properties. Hiscompany forecasts restaurant sales to determine if the sales will support the rent. ³We came up with anestimated sales of $1.6 million for a California restaurant [using census data]. Actual sales were $1.5million for the client,´ he says. Census data also assists in retail site selection. ³U.S. censusinformation allows us the luxury of analyzing sites throughout the United States quickly,´ says DavidC. Mayo, CCIM, a principal at Vector Realty Advisors in Louisville, Ky. ³The data, used inconjunction with certain statistical tools, allows the elimination of a certain amount of variance, thuscreating greater assurance for our clients that chosen sites for their business[es] have a better-than-average chance of success.´ Analyzing census data also helps Mayo move into new markets. Heworked in 23 cities last year, and the census information allowed him to dissect each market beforemoving in. Census data ³speeds up the learning curve of particular markets,´ he says. Somecommercial real estate professionals also use census data to analyze the profitability of multifamily properties. ³Population growth against households and housing units will predict the number of

housing starts by which type are needed in the marketplace, and income against households will predict the success of retail prospects,´ McGinnis says. ³Further, positive or negative value trends ² and success or failure of proposed developments ² are more confidently predicted by the censusinformation when estimating value or performing feasibility analyses.´ Marc Boorstein, CCIM, usesthe census to determine the feasibility of developing and acquiring self-storage facilities. ³[Censusdata] helps to project the need and potential viability of a new high-end self-storage facility for prospective purchasers and lenders nationwide,´ says Boorstein, a principal at MJ Partners Real EstateServices in Chicago. Raw land developers also can benefit from the census. Rose's company manages

8/7/2019 Census AFF





the entire land development process, and she regularly uses census information to ³determine marketdemand and feasibility for housing, retail, office, and industrial space,´ she says.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Representation of PLIP¶s k/t Democracy)

Representation of the poor is key to democracy in the US

Imig, University of Memphis, µ96(Douglas R. Imig, University of Memphis, 1996, ³Poverty and Power: The Political Representation of PoorAmericans,´ Questia, http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=96678622) [David Herman]

This work follows from the premise that increased levels of informed, ongoing participation are thesine qua non of viable democracy and that current patterns of participation in the United States aredangerously skewed toward certain groups to the exclusion of many facets of society.Disproportionate patterns of participation entrench disequilibrium in political representation and efficacy. 2 Erodinglevels of popular efficacy will ultimately undermine the support for any state, including our own. Tocounter this trend calls both for the construction of effective social institutions and for activelyencouraging widespread, informed participation. The importance of civic education and the role--indeed necessity--of widespread and continuing participation is a theme as old as the Greeks.

However, this work is not a call for a particular brand or level of welfare provision. The types of welfare programs societies construct tell more about the definition of communities than about theneeds and characteristics of the poor. These programs are also the outcome of political maneuveringthat takes into account many factors beyond helping the poor. I am all too aware of the frailties andconvolutions of existing programs to defend them with total conviction. Still, the political discussion of welfare policies is central to the definition of a viable democracy. It is, in effect, the bellwether of howsocieties decide who will and will not enjoy true and full citizenship. It is possible, however, to be anunabashed advocate of the politics of empowerment and the necessity of universal, active participationwithout being an apologist for any particular welfare scheme. While this distinction may seem obvious,it is often overlooked and sometimes even reversed: calls for political participation by the poor are

often misinterpreted as demands for more welfare programs.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





PLIP Representationp Democracy

The poor must be able to participate in politics to make democracy work

Simi Kamal, founder and chair of the think tank Hisaar Foundation, 6-6-2K , ³The Democracy-Poverty NexusSummary on Issues of Participation´, http://archive.idea.int/df/2000df/papers_presented_1.html

One can see that there is a democracy-poverty nexus.Economic growth without democracy leads togreater degrees of inequalities - within democratic systems, where a greater proportion of people participate through political institutions in negotiations and debates, they can influence the economicsystem. The poor have at least the chance to try and bring about economic changes that can lead to thereduction of poverty and inequalities. The missing link between democracy and poverty then, mustsurely be the political participation of the poor.However, it must be noted that this participation by the poor is often mitigated by "the market" and"lobbying" by powerful groups in the developed world, and by unelected authoritarian governmentsand elitist politics in the developing countries. Many democracies continue to carry baggage ± monarchies and racial values in the "north", paternalist and feudal values in the "south".The world, therefore, has to work towards increasing the political participation of the poor: this means

increasing the participation and clout of the poor countries in the international system, particularly theUN, and the participation and clout of the poor within their own countries. The role democracy can play in poverty alleviation is by making the space for redistributive justice, such that the poor have afair chance to pull themselves out of disadvantage. This space can be created by strengthening thegovernment, political parties and groups (of the poor, or inclusive of the poor), processes of political participation and negotiation, tempering µthe market¶ to support the poor, and finding a balance between private enterprise and government control.

The poor needs a political voice to participate in democracy

Simi Kamal, founder and chair of the think tank Hisaar Foundation, 6-6-2K , ³The Democracy-Poverty Nexus

Summary on Issues of Participation´, http://archive.idea.int/df/2000df/papers_presented_1.htmlVery importantly, poverty can be addressed by redefining the economic structures; while social programmes may be needed "poverty alleviation" programmes are not the answer. A paradigm shift isneeded in economic thinking to include redistributive justice, development and support of localenterprise, revenue generation and opportunities for economic advancement of individuals and businesses. A clear perspective on foreign aid and impact of globalization is also needed in developingcountries.Within the ambit of widespread economic and political participation, work will be needed torationalize education and other development sectors within urban and rural contexts, through sound policies and well-managed implementation, such that they all address the roots of poverty and help the poor help themselves. A political voice of the poor through political participation would provide

the vital link between poverty and democracy.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Democracy needs full equal engagement of the population

Kevin Lanning, professor at Florida Atlantic University, 8-5-2008, ³Democracy, Voting, andDisenfranchisement in the United States: A Social Psychological Perspective´http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/121370903/HTMLSTART

Democracy is more than a system of government. Democratically elected governments can act in

undemocratic ways, as in the 1933 vote of the German Reichstag for the Enabling Act, the effect of which was to essentially surrender all governmental power and responsibility to Chancellor Adolf Hitler. Governments with seemingly democratic constitutions may in fact be tyrannical, as in the caseof present-day North Korea that despite a constitution that provides safeguards for numerous freedomsand stipulates regular elections is among the least democratic governments on Earth (Post, 2006). Whatwe mean by democracy is captured neither by simple principles of majority rule, nor by a disembodiedset of laws or form of government. Instead, for the present purposes, three characteristics of democracymay be identified, each of which is held to be necessary, and each of which describes a distinct level of analysis.First, at the level of government, democracy is a system in which the laws are essentially made by andgovern the same individuals. Notwithstanding the fact that laws may be made indirectly, by elected

representatives, it remains that democratic government implies an agentic citizenry, or, in terms firstarticulated by Kant and brought into psychology by Piaget, autonomous rather than heteronymouscontrol (Post, 2006).Second, at the level of society, democracy is a system characterized by equality. This is related to theconception of democracy as autonomy or self-governance, for if actors were truly autonomous, eachwould govern the fate of exactly one individual. Consequently, self-determination implies "equality of democratic agency" (Post, 2006, p. 28). In an ideal democracy, the basic political relationship betweenindividuals is not the asymmetry of subjects and leaders, but the symmetrical respect between personswith ostensibly equal voices in the political process. Piaget maintained that "the essence of democracy[is to] replace the unilateral respect of authority by the mutual respect of autonomous wills" (Piaget,1965, p. 363).

Third, at the level of the individual, democracy implies both self-efficacy and engagement. Withrespect to self-efficacy, it is not enough that individuals are in fact self-governing. We must believethat we are self-governing as well (Gonzalez & Tyler, this issue; Post, 2006). With respect toengagement, citizenship, like all forms of group membership, may be understood as a feature of theself-concept. To the extent that this feature is prominent within the self-concept, the actor may be saidto identify with the state. The role of identity in democracy is important in understanding individualdifferences in political participation, which derive not only from differences in resources and abilities(Dahl, 2006), but also from differences in what Allport described as "ego-involvement." As an aspectof the self-concept, democracy may be seen as both abstract and concrete, abstract in that its specificmeaning and significance will vary from one individual to another, concrete in that its centrality and prominence in the self-concept may be profound.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-On (Democracy Solves Poverty)

Democracy is key to alleviate povertySimi Kamal, founder and chair of the think tank Hisaar Foundation, 6-6-2K , ³The Democracy-Poverty NexusSummary on Issues of Participation´, http://archive.idea.int/df/2000df/papers_presented_1.html

Theoretically the poor in a democratic society should have the same opportunities to seek office and toinfluence decision-making as any other group. Democratization is, therefore, as a key precondition

for the alleviation of poverty, as it would provide the poor with the channels to influence and

develop policies that would be to their interest.Poverty is an unacceptable human condition. Yet 1.2 billion people of the world are poor (those whoearn less than US $1 /day). Data suggest that 60 per cent of the world's poorest people (more than 500million) live in ecologically vulnerable areas, or µpoverty reserves¶, in both urban and rural areas.Recent trends in economic development have seen the disparity between rich and poor countrieswidening. By far the major constraint facing developing countries in their struggle against poverty istrying to survive in a global economic system that is severely skewed against them. Access to financialresources is depended upon a country¶s participation in the international community of nations. The

powerful rich countries dictate the terms through which the weaker countries must participate in theinternational system. This is an aspect of "participation" that is often not discussed.

Participation in politics is key for the impoverishedSimi Kamal, founder and chair of the think tank Hisaar Foundation, 6-6-2K , ³The Democracy-Poverty NexusSummary on Issues of Participation´, http://archive.idea.int/df/2000df/papers_presented_1.html

A certain antagonism between democracy and the market cannot be denied. Democracies are at least asefficient as authoritarian regimes to foster economic growth, but they are better equipped for facingeconomic and social crises. Democratization has largely succeeded until now, but failure bygovernments to meet the basic needs of the people is posing a threat to the legitimacy of democraticinstitutions. Governments have surrendered to economic powers, and democratic institutions haveweakened. There is, therefore, a need to rescue the institutional essence of democratic politics,especially since social rights have taken precedence over political rights.The recovery of democratic politics should start by an increasing popular control of politicalinstitutions. In order to alleviate the condition of the poor and the socially excluded, a main asset of democracy is that the system gives voice to the voiceless, so that the excluded may legitimatelydenounce the system under which exclusion takes place. This would improve the possibility for maintenance of the social contract, by allowing for successive peaceful changes.Democracy and rule of law should be considered of high political value by themselves; the point beingthat of finding out the potential of a democratic regime for the alleviation of poverty while preservingfreedoms and rights. Free competition may harm the society, but participative politics shouldcompensate the flaws of the market, such that social justice becomes an undeniable value.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Impact Extensions (Hispanic Undercount)

More accurate counting means greater Hispanic political influence and a voice in government.

Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09(Ana Radelat, Veteran Washington Correspondent, 6/09

http://www.aarpsegundajuventud.org/english/issues/2009-SPR/census.html)There¶s a reason why Vargas and other Hispanic advocates say the census is a number-one priority thisyear: they want to make sure the Hispanic community¶s rapid growth is reflected with a rise in politicalclout. According to previous census counts, the Latino community was estimated to be 46 millionstrong²or about 15 percent of the U.S. population. The new census is expected to show a growth inall segments of the community. Using U.S. Census Bureau projections, the NALEO Educational Fundestimates that the census will show a total Latino population of 49.7 million, equal to 17 percent of theU.S. population, of which 8.6 million will be Latinos aged 50+.

The failure to accurately count immigrants impacts voting rights, housing, health care, and education.US Census Bureau, 06

(U.S. Census Bureau Responses to the Recommendations of the Census Advisory Committee of ProfessionalAssociations, 5/19/06http://www.census.gov/cac/census_advisory_committee_of_professional_associations/docs/2006_May_Recommendations_CAPCA.pdf)

In sum, the PAA/AC finds that the Census Bureau¶s response amounted to basically doing nothing that would be new orinnovative in terms of data and research on the foreign-born and foreign-stock populations. This reflects a failure tounderstand the importance and significance of the Committee¶s recommendation regarding the foreign-born and foreign-stock populations. The foreign-born and foreign-stock population is growing rapidly, and is increasingly diverse along keycharacteristics such as human capital, legal status, national origins, etc. In addition, the foreign-born population is dispersingand increasingly settling in areas that did not receive many immigrants in the past, such as small towns and rural areas in thesouthern and Midwestern regions of the United States. These trends contain important demographic, social, economic, and

political implications, as well as for the many federal programs, including voting rights, fair housing, healthcare, an

educational programs.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-On (South Asia Democracy)

Excluding immigrants and other minorities is a breach in democracy and the constitution

Branche,Fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy, 7-23 (Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)

Leaving out undocumented immigrants deprives citizens of political power and political voice. Tosome extent, efforts to eliminate undocumented immigrants from the census amount to astraightforward political power grab. After all, the apportionment of House seats and Electoral Collegevotes is a zero-sum game²for every seat one state wins, another loses. According to the Federation for American Immigration Reform, ³Rather than apportioning Congressional seats among the states on the basis of the full count of the decennial census, a more logical distribution would be on the basis of thenumber of native-born and naturalized U.S. citizens. If this were done, states with large numbers of illegal aliens and other non-citizens would lose seats to states that have a higher share of citizens.´44This proposal encourages areas without many undocumented residents to claim more political power

by excluding the undocumented residents of other jurisdictions. Thus, it is squarely in the politicalinterest of citizens in immigrant destinations to see that their legal rights are recognized and allundocumented immigrants are fully counted in 2010. The Constitution calls for ³reality-based´ public policy. Critics argue that since undocumented immigrants should not be present in the U.S. in the first place, they should be left out of the census as if they were, in fact, absent from our communities.45 Butignoring the existence of millions of people working, attending school, raising families andcontributing to local economies does not make them disappear. Instead, it leaves the nation lessequipped to understand and deal with the realities of American life.Efforts to exclude undocumentedimmigrants from apportionment and redistricting totals compromise the entire census.

An accurate census is essential to assure equal political representation and save democracySchirm, Professor at The University of Pennsylvania 91 (Allen L. Schirm, PhD in economics, University of Pennsylvania, a nationally recognized expert in programevaluation, the decennial census, fund allocation, and innovative statistical methods for measuring poverty and program eligibility and participation for states and local areas, fellow and chair elect of the American StatisticalAssociation, in recognition of his outstanding professional contributions to and leadership in the field of statistical science, 6-1991, ³The Effects of Census Undercount Adjustment on Congressional Apportionment,´Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 86, No. 414 (Jun., 1991), pp. 526-541, JSTOR,http://www.jstor.org/stable/2290604?seq=1)

Because undercounts are unequal among demographic groups, such resources as congressional seats

and some federal funds that are allocated partly or wholly on the basis of population estimates may beinequitably distributed. All inhabitants of a geographic area suffer when many residents are notcounted. Balanced against these inequities are a variety of technical and operational problems posed byadjustment. This article analyzes the effects of undercount adjustment on congressional apportionment.Allocating seats in the House of Representatives among the states was the original purpose for whichthe decennial census was established by the U.S. Constitution. Because equitable politicalrepresentation is a cornerstone of our democracyand because the census remains the foundation of our national statistical system, it is important to understand the implications of adjustment for the

8/7/2019 Census AFF





apportionment of Congress.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Asian countries emulate US democracy --- correct democracy here is key to correct democracy there

Brooks, director of the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center, µ90 (Roger A. Brooks, director of the Heritage Foundation¶s Asian Studies Center, 2-10-90, ³The Case for Continued U.S. Engagement in Asia,´ The Heritage Foundation,http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/hl241.cfm) [David Herman]

Second, Americans have viewed Asia as the place where the American way has taken root. Americanscan take pride in the fact that Asian societies have been and are seeking to emulate U.S. democraticvalues. Their open embrace of the free market has become a banner for the Third World.Their economic success has become a symbol of the triumph of the American vision. Indeed, the Americaneffort in Vietnam, ultimately unsuccessful on the peninsula, held the line long enough to permit theestablishment of a democratic market economy outside Indochina itself.

Democracy in South Asia doesn¶t work now because constitutional rights are ignored --- regaining

constitutional rights in USp constitutional rights in Asia

Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International and SecurityAffairs, 2003 (Dr. Christian Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International andSecurity Affairs, 6-03, ³Democratic Peace in South Asia?,´ Heidelberg Papers in South Asian and ComparativePolitics, http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/volltexte/2003/4126/pdf/hpsacp16.pdf ) [DavidHerman]

The state of democracy in South Asia is difficult to evaluate. Looking at the electoral records of SouthAsian countries we can at least conclude, that the foremost function of democracy, the exchange of power by electoral means is achieved. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have an impressive

electoral record under their democratic governments. In contrast to popular views, incumbent governments are

not approved but are mostly voted out of power in elections. But the picture gets marred if democracy isregarded as a set of institutions for peaceful conflict mediation. All democratic governments in South Asia

have to cope with violent conflicts that threaten the integrity of their statehood showing the failure of

democratic institutions to deal with these challenges.11Unfortunately, democratic governance is also not positively correlated with the rule of law or positive human development. Despite the empirical problems involved there is ample evidence by the reports from the media, as well as national andinternational human rights organizations that the assurance of constitutional rights is hardly met inmost countries. Figures from Freedom House illustrate this ambivalence in democratic performance. Itis especially noteworthy that figures for civil liberties that include constitutional rights are worse thanthe respective country figures for political rights. Even if all countries enjoyed an institutionaldemocratic setup, Kant would hardly be satisfied with the way in which they work .

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Democratic Peace in South Asia is key to deterring a Indo-Pak Nuclear War

Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International and Security

Affairs, 2003 (Dr. Christian Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International andSecurity Affairs, 6-03, ³Democratic Peace in South Asia?,´ Heidelberg Papers in South Asian and Comparative

Politics, http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/volltexte/2003/4126/pdf/hpsacp16.pdf )[DavidHerman]

The problems and prospects of democratic peace have attracted both scholars of international relationsand policy makers in recent years. The main argument is that the promotion of democracy will lower the probability of war because democracies have not yet gone to war against each other. The promotion of democratic governance therefore became one of the cornerstones of the foreign policiesin both the U.S. and the member countries of the European Union (EU) in the 1990s. South Asia can surely be regarded as a region where the benefits of democratic peace would be more than desirable. SouthAsia¶s image as a region of chronic instability was only to be seconded by U.S. President Clinton¶sremarks in March 2000 that the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir is the µmost dangerous place in the

world¶. The events following September 11 and the growing tensions between India and Pakistan after theattacks of Islamic militants on the Indian parliament in December 2001 have again increased the probabilityof a nuclear war in this part of the world. But the overall picture of the region is more complex.Besides the well-known conventional and nuclear security risks, South Asia is also among the poorestand least developed regions in the world according to international social and economic indicators. Despite these developments there are remarkable traditions of democratic rule at the same time. During most of

the 1990s, South Asia was the biggest democratic region after the transition from authoritarian rule in Pakistan

(1988), Nepal (1990) and Bangladesh (1990). Moreover, South Asia is the only region where western politicalinstitutions go hand in hand with a variety of non-western civilisations and where religion plays an active role in

current politics. The only forms of Hindu and Islamic democracies are to be found in Nepal and Bangladesh,

and Buddhism received a foremost place in the Sri Lanka constitution. In contrast to other Asian regions

there is a strong commitment by South Asian countries to follow the development model that isincluded in the democratic peace debate. There is a great consensus for democracy and economicliberalisation. The constitutions of South Asian countries promote individual rights in contrast tocommunity rights that created the debate on ³Asian values´ in parts of East and Southeast Asia someyears ago

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Indo-Pak Nuclear War will lead to Food Scarcity and mass starvation

Edwards, science writer for NewScientist, µ07(Rob Edwards, science writer for NewScientist, 10-3-07, ³Regional nuclear war could trigger massstarvation,´ http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12728-regional-nuclear-war-could-trigger-mass-starvation.html) [David Herman]

Earlier studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million tonnes of black soot into theatmosphere, triggering a reduction of 1.25°C in the average temperature at the earth's surface for several years. As a result, the annual growing season in the world's most important grain-producingareas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days.Helfand points out that the world is ill-prepared to cope withsuch a disaster. "Global grain stocksstand at 49 days, lower than at any point in the past five decades," he says. "These stocks

would not provide any significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. We would seehoarding on a global scale."Countries which import more than half of their grain, such as Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan,

would be particularly vulnerable, Helfand argues. So, too, would 150 million people in north Africa, which imports 45% of its food.

Many of the 800 million around the world who are already officially malnourished would also suffer. Large-scale impacts onfood supplies from global cooling are credible because they have happened before, Helfand says. The eruption of the

Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 produced the "year without a summer" in 1816, causing one of the worst famines of the 19th

century. Mass starvation The global death toll from a nuclear war in Asia "could exceed one billion fromstarvation alone", Helfand concludes. Food shortages could also trigger epidemics of cholera, typhusand other diseases, as well as armed conflicts, which together could kill "hundreds of millions".Another study being unveiled at today's conference suggests that the smoke unleashed by 100, small,15 kiloton nuclear warheads could destroy 30-40% of the world's ozone layer. This would kill off somefood crops,according to the study's author, Brian Toon, an atmospheric scientist from the University of Colorado in Boulder, US.

The smoke would warm the stratosphere by up to 50°C, accelerating the natural reactions that attack ozone, he says. "No-one has ever thought about this before," he adds, "I think there is a potential for mass starvation." Such dire

predictions are not dismissed by nuclear experts, though they stress the large uncertainties involved. The fallout from a nuclear war between India and Pakistan "would be far more devastating for other countries than generallyappreciated,"says John Pike, director of the US think tank, globalsecurity.org. "Local events can have global consequences." Dan

Plesch from the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies, agrees that everyone is at risk from a limited nuclear war."We live in a state of denial that our fate can be determined by decisions in Islamabad and New Delhi as much as in Washington andMoscow," he says.

Food scarcity leads to World War Three

Calvin, ¶98(William H. Calvin, Theoretical Neurophysiologist @ the University of Washington, January 1998, "The greatclimate flip-flop," The Atlantic Monthly 281(1):47-64,http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm, ACC: 6.28.07, p. online)

The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields will cause some powerful

countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands ² if only because their armies, unpaid and lackingfood, will go marauding, both at home and across the borders. The better-organized countries will attempt to usetheir armies, before they fall apart entirely, to take over countries with significant remaining resources, drivingout or starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminatingcompetitors for the remaining food. This will be a worldwide problem ² and could easily lead to a Third WorldWar

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Democracy Spillover)

Western democracy spills over to Asia

Zakaria, journalist and author, recipient of honorary degrees at the University of Miami, Oberlin

College, Bates College and Brown University. µ97

(Fareed Zakaria, journalist and author, recipient of honorary degrees at the University of Miami, OberlinCollege, Bates College and Brown University. 1-5-97, ³Doubts about Democracy,´ Newsweek,http://www.fareedzakaria.com/ARTICLES/newsweek/122997.html)

A brighter model may lie in some countries of East Asia--Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand--oftencriticized as sham democracies and one-party dictatorships. It is true that they offer limited (and oftenrigged) electoral choices, but they provide a better environment for their citizens' security andhappiness than do many of the new "democracies." After all, economic, civil and religious liberties areat the core of human autonomy and dignity. And, as in the West, where economic liberty and law camelong before mass voting, these countries are evolving into liberal democracies. Call it the spillover

effect of freedom.

The spread of democracy throughout Asia will follow a domino effect

Schmiegelow, µ97 (Michele Schmiegelow, 1997, ³Democracy in Asia,´ pg.90-1,http://books.google.com/books?id=n57dtteA2ZEC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_navlinks_s)

Such a model effect can be found not only in the process of successful industrialization, but also in thespread of democracy. Just as the affluence and convenience brought about by industrialization have anirresistible attraction, the desire for freedom is also a fundamental inner human need. The existence of

examples which show the extreme political chaos can be avoided in the process of democratization,will have an nonnegligible impact on authoritarian rulers in convincing them that the estimated cost of democratization would now be lower, making them more responsive to the demand for democratization.Also, accessing the outside information sources that have become possible as a result of thedevelopment and the spread of mass media like TV broadcasting is a factor giving a further push to thedomino effect toward democratizationDemocratization is, of course, never inevitable. Nor is there any guarantee that democratization isgoing to be a smooth process in all authoritarian countries. Especially in such a colossus like China, if democratization were to hit a major snag in the initial stages throwing the country into extreme chaos,democratization in Asia can not proceed in a manner as optimistic as is painted in this chapter.

Further, as Winston Churchill once pointed out, and was subsequently demonstrated by the reality inthe democracies, democracy does not guarantee excellence in policy formulation or political morality.The possibility of a spreading disillusionment in democracy is always present, at least in a latent form,in all societies. However, it seems unmistakeably the overall trend of the day that democracy is goingto move forward in a domino-like fashion in Asia.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Solvency Extensions (South Asia Democracy)

1. The democratic peace thesis is feasible in South Asia

Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International and Security

Affairs, 2003

(Dr. Christian Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International andSecurity Affairs, 6-03, ³Democratic Peace in South Asia?,´ Heidelberg Papers in South Asian and ComparativePolitics, http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/volltexte/2003/4126/pdf/hpsacp16.pdf ) [DavidHerman]

The starting point was in how far the debate about democratic peace can help to understand thesituation in South Asia. The region offers a mixed picture. On the one hand it contains countries withstrong democratic traditions and a non-western cultural background. On the other hand, it is regardedas region of chronic instability and as the most dangerous place in the world. But even conflict-pronecountries like India and Pakistan have witnessed periods of common democratic governance, so that

the region can be regarded as an interesting test case for the theoretical debate. The democraticexperiences of the region certainly underline the main argument of the debate: ³Pairs of democraciesare much more peaceful than either pairs of autocracies or mixed democratic-autocratic pairs.´36 Thiswould also hold true for South Asian. The Kargil war is up to now the only exception that seems toconfirm the rule. But other major findings of the debate have their limits when applied to the region.Statements like ³democracies should have fewer civil wars than non-democratic states´37 and ³on theaverage, democracies, as individual states, are more peaceful than autocracies´ 38 are faced with anumber of empirical problems in South Asia.

2. Current South Asian democracies are imperfect ± we fix by solving democracy at home

Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International and SecurityAffairs, 2003(Dr. Christian Wagner, head of the Asia Research Division of the German Institute for International andSecurity Affairs, 6-03, ³Democratic Peace in South Asia?,´ Heidelberg Papers in South Asian and ComparativePolitics, http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/volltexte/2003/4126/pdf/hpsacp16.pdf ) [DavidHerman]

On the national level, the achievements of democratic governments in South Asia are at leastambivalent. On the positive side, there is a more or less regular change of governments by democraticelections. On the negative side, the weaknesses of the state in securing constitutional rights for themajority of its citizens is obvious from many sources. The capabilities of democratic institutions to act as

conflict mediation mechanisms is still underdeveloped. Even the sharing of democratic norms does not seem tohave an impact on a better understanding. Persisting threat perceptions and negative images arewidespread among the population, intellectuals and political decision-makers. The assumption of checks and balances in foreign policy decision-making by democratic groups does also not to be valid.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Nuclear Weapons Deter Conflict in South Asia

1. Your ev. is general while ours is specific to South Asia --- prefer specific evidence because it is less

likely to overlook individual outliers in favor of the big picture. Specific ev. doesn¶t generalize about the

world and oversimplify complex theories.

2. You assume outdated models from the Cold War ± our ev. is current and applies to the situation in

South Asia

3. Nuclear Weapons in South Asia don¶t deter conflict

NRDC, protects wildlife and wild places and to ensure a healthy environment for all life on earth, µ02(Natural Resources Defense Council, protect wildlife and wild places and to ensure a healthy environmentfor all life on earth, 6-4-02, ³The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan,´http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp) [David Herman]

After India and Pakistan held nuclear tests in 1998, experts have debated whether their nuclear weapons contribute to stability in South Asia. Experts who argue that the nuclear standoff promotesstability have pointed to the U.S.-Soviet Union Cold War as an example of how deterrence ensuresmilitary restraint.

NRDC disagrees. There are major differences between the Cold War and the current South Asiancrisis. Unlike the U.S.-Soviet experience, these two countries have a deep-seated hatred of one another and have fought three wars since both countries became independent. At least part of the current crisismay be seen as Hindu nationalism versus Muslim fundamentalism.

A second difference is India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals are much smaller than those of the United

States and Russia. The U.S. and Russian arsenals truly represent the capability to destroy each other'ssociety beyond recovery. While the two South Asia scenarios we have described produce unimaginableloss of life and destruction, they do not reach the level of "mutual assured destruction" that stood as theultimate deterrent during the Cold War.

The two South Asian scenarios assume nuclear attacks against cities. During the early Cold War periodthis was the deterrent strategy of the United States and the Soviet Union. But as both countriesintroduced technological improvements into their arsenals, they pursued other strategies, targeting eachother's nuclear forces, conventional military forces, industry and leadership. India and Pakistan mayinclude these types of targets in their current military planning. For example, attacking large dams withnuclear weapons could result in massive disruption, economic consequences and casualties.

Concentrations of military forces and facilities may provide tempting targets as well.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-On (Ozone Depletion)

Regional Nuclear exchange shreds the ozone layer

Courtesy PNAS and World Science staff, µ08 (Courtesy PNAS and World Science staff, 4-7-08, ³Nuke exchange would shred ozone layer: study,´

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, http://www.world-science.net/othernews/080407_nuke-ozone.htm

A regional nuclear exchange could wipe out most of the Earth¶s protective ozone layer, researchersreport. The layer is a part of the atmosphere that contains enough ozone to block most of the sun¶sultraviolet radiation, which burns the skin and can cause skin cancer.

An atomic bomb tested on June 24, 1957 in Ne-vada. (Im-age cour-te-sy State of Ne-va-da)Michael Mills of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and colleagues concluded from simulations thata conflict involving the exchange of 100 Hiroshima-equivalent bombs would cause urban fires whosesmoke would decimate the ozone layer.

The fires would loft as much as five million metric tonnes of soot into the troposphere, the lowestatmospheric layer, the researchers argued. Solar heating, they added, would then boost the soot in-tothe strat-o-sphere, a high-er lay-er.

Up to about 60 km (40 miles) high the soot would absorb solar radiation and heat the surroundinggases, thus speeding up chemical reactions that break down ozone, the scientists said.

They used a model that linked climate to atmospheric chemistry to conduct 10-year sim-ula-t-ions.Their model predicts that in a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, atmospheric currents wouldlikely spread soot around the globe, resulting in local atmospheric warming of up to 30-60 degrees

Celsius.

Ozone depletion causes complete extinction ± scientific consensus is on our side. Greenpeace, 95 (Greenpeace, 1995, ³Full of Holes: Montreal Protocol and the Continuing Destruction of the Ozone Layer, AGREENPEACE REPORT with contributions from OZONE ACTION´http://archive.greenpeace.org/ozone/holes/holebg.html)

Whenchemists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina first postulated a link between

chlorofluorocarbons and ozone layer depletion in 1974, the news was greeted with scepticism, buttaken seriously nonetheless. The vast majority of credible scientists have since confirmed this

hypothesis. The ozone layer around the Earth shields us all from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

Without the ozone layer, life on earth would not exist. Exposureto increased levels of ultravioletradiation can cause cataracts, skin cancer, and immune system suppression in humans as well asinnumerable effects on other living systems. This is why Rowland's and Molina's theory was taken

so seriously, so quickly - the stakes are literally the continuation of life on earth.

Independently, ozone depletion shatters DNA ± making survival impossible.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Earth and Society, 98 (Earth and Society, 1998, ³A Project out of the University of Michigan, THE OZONE LAYER: IMPORTANTCOMPONENTS OF OZONE EDUCATION,´ http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/ozone.htm)

The ozone layer is essential for human life. It is able to absorb much harmful ultraviolet radiation, preventing penetration to the earth¶s surface. Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is defined as radiation withwavelengths between 290-320 nanometers, which are harmful to life because this radiation can enter cells and destroy the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) of many life forms on planet earth. In a sense, theozone layer can be thought of as a ³UV filter´ or our planet¶s ³built in sunscreen´ (Geocities.com,1998). Without the ozone layer, UV radiation would not be filtered as it reached the surface of theearth. If this happened, ³cancer would break out and all of the living civilizations, and all species onearth would be in jeopardy´ (Geocities.com, 1998). Thus, the ozone layer essentially allows life, as weknow it, to exist.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Ozone depletion causes extinction of plankton

UNEP, WCMC, 2k

(United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2k, ³Biodiversity andClimate Change 2000, Changing Oceans, Effects on biodiversity,´ http://www.unep-

wcmc.org/climate/oceans/biodiv.aspx) [David Herman]

Plankton are not only affected by temperature changes but the increase in ultraviolet (UV) radiation, asa result of ozone depletion, also poses a threat to their survival. Studies have shown that UV radiationactually inhibits photosynthesis in phytoplankton but it is difficult to quantify these effects in the openocean due to variation caused by factors such as vertical mixing and cloud cover. It is thought thatrapid vertical mixing in the water column further inhibits photosynthesis whereas a greater cloud cover reduces the harmful effects of UV radiation. In addition UV rays affect growth and reproduction aswell as the functioning of enzymes and cellular proteins in phytoplankton. Damage to phytoplanktonhas been demonstrated at the molecular, cellular, population and community levels but the effects of increased UV radiation at the ecosystem level remain uncertain.

Bacterioplankton seem to lack UV-screening pigments and radiation affects the enzymes responsiblefor breaking down their food. When bacterioplankton move to deeper waters, however, the photorepair process carried out by UV-A (blue light) allows the take up of organic breakdown products. Moreresearch is required to determine the true impact of UV radiation on these minute but importantorganisms.

It has also been demonstrated that zooplankton are damaged by UV radiation and even small increasesin UV exposure could result in significant reductions in the consumer community.

Plankton are key to Ocean Ecosystems

Reilly, Discovery News, µ09

(Michael Reilly, Discovery News, 2-23-09, ³Ocean¶s Vital Plankton Sheets Form by µMishap¶,´ DiscoveryChannel, http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/02/23/red-tide-plankton.html)

One of the mightiest creatures in the sea is a microscopic plankton, at the mercy of fickle oceancurrents, according to a new study.Single-celled phytoplankton may look unremarkable on their own, but they form massive sheets thatstretch for miles through the ocean, and their importance to life on Earth is staggering. They produce50 percent of the oxygen we breathe. They can be the food that nourishes a thriving ecosystem, or justas easily destroy a fishery by releasing devastating toxins into the water.

Each sheet can contain trillions of organisms and last for days, but how they form and why remainmysterious. In a study published recently in the journal Science, researchers have found the sheets are probably accidents of ocean circulation -- the tiny swimmers get tumbled and trapped between layeredcurrents of water."We think it's a mishap that occurs on their way to the surface," co-author Roman Stocker of theMassachusetts Institute of Technology said. "But it's possible that there is some advantage to being inthese layers."For instance, plankton may only release the lethal poisons found in harmful algal blooms when they

8/7/2019 Census AFF





are packed in close together."Once in high enough concentrations, the cells say 'I know that we are many, so I can start releasingtoxins," Stocker said. "You may need a threshold of concentration to start their chemical defense from predators."From the plankton's perspective, overpacked layers, also known as red tides, may be the equivalent of

fetid, overcrowded prisons."When we see large populations of organisms aggregated in one place, we think it's a great successstory," Daniel Grunbaum of the University of Washington said. "But it could be a catastrophic failure.I bet the mortality rate is very high in these layers. They could be very important for predators to feedoff of, and for spreading pathogens."Still, the layers provide a cornerstone for rich and diverse ocean ecosystems. With their swimmingabilities overwhelmed, the plankton are easy prey for zooplankton. That in turn attracts small fish, then bigger fish and so on up the food chain, supporting a thriving metropolis of biodiversity.

Extinction inevitable without strong ocean ecosystems. Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University, J.D. in Environmental Law, Specialty in Ocean

Policy, Working Group on Ocean Policy, American Bar Association, McGeorge Law Review, 03 (Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University, J.D. in Environmental Law, Specialty inOcean Policy, Working Group on Ocean Policy, American Bar Association, McGeorge Law ReviewWinter 2003, ³Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Cor al Reef MarineReserves in Florida and Hawaii,´ McGeorge Law Review)

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable."Occupy[ing] more than [seventy percent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," 17oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells, aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; and quality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for millions of people worldwide. 18

Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of the ocean to humanity's well-being: "Theocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of

planetary biodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create andmaintain our atmosphere and climate." 19 Ocean and coastal ecosystem services have been calculatedto be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. 20 In addition, many people assignheritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a commonlegacy to be passed on relatively intact to future generations. 21 Continues: We may not know much about the sea, but we do know this much: if we kill the ocean we

kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us. The Black Sea is almost dead, 863its once-complex and productive ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies,"starving out fish and dolphins, emptying fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into

brainless, wraith-like blobs of jelly." 864 More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-On (Global Cooling)

Small scale nuclear exchange will devastate the environment and threaten extinction --- outweighs

nuclear war

Bryner, LiveScience Staff Writer, µ06

(Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Staff Writer, 12-11-06, ³Small Nuclear War Would Cause GlobalEnvironmental Catastrophe,´ http://www.livescience.com/environment/061211_nuclear_climate.html)[David Herman]

A small-scale, regional nuclear war could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more, withenvironmental effects that could be devastating for everyone on Earth, researchers have concluded.

The scientists said about 40 countries possess enough plutonium or uranium to construct substantialnuclear arsenals. Setting off a Hiroshima-size weapon could cause as many direct fatalities as all of World War II.

"Considering the relatively small number and size of the weapons, the effects are surprisingly large,"said one of the researchers, Richard Turco of the University of California, Los Angeles. "The potentialdevastation would be catastrophic and long term."

The lingering effects could re-shape the environment in ways never conceived. In terms of climate, anuclear blast could plunge temperatures across large swaths of the globe. "It would be the largestclimate change in recorded human history," Alan Robock, associate director of the Center for Environmental Prediction at Rutgers' Cook College and another member of the research team.

The results will be presented here today during the annual meeting of American Geophysical Union.

Blast fatalities

In one study, scientists led by Owen "Brian" Toon of the University of Colorado, Boulder, analyzed potential fatalities based on current nuclear weapons inventories and population densities in large citiesaround the world.

His team focused on the black smoke generated by a nuclear blast and firestorms²intense and long-lasting fires that create and sustain their own wind systems.

For a regional conflict, fatalities would range from 2.6 million to 16.7 million per country. "A small

country is likely to direct its weapons against population centers to maximize damage and achieve thegreatest advantage," Toon said.

Chilled climate

With the information, Robock and colleagues generated a series of computer simulations of potentialclimate anomalies caused by a small-scale nuclear war.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





"We looked at a scenario of a regional nuclear conflict say between India and Pakistan where each of them used 50 weapons on cities in the other country that would generate a lot of smoke," Robock toldLiveScience.

They discovered the smoke emissions would plunge temperatures by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25

degrees Celsius) over large areas of North America and Eurasia²areas far removed from the countriesinvolved in the conflict.

Typically when sunlight travels through the atmosphere, some rays get absorbed by particles in the air, before reaching Earth's surface. After a nuclear blast, however, loads of black smoke would settle intothe upper atmosphere and absorb sunlight before it reaches our planet's surface. Like a dark curtain pulled over large parts of the globe, the smoke would cause cool temperatures, darkness, less precipitation and even ozone depletion.

At the end of the 10 years, the simulated climate still hadn't recovered.

Global upshot

The study showed it doesn't take much nuclear power to drive meteoric results. Whereas the scenarios presumed the countries involved would launch their entire nuclear arsenals, that total is just three-hundredths of a percent of the global arsenal.

Will the conclusions result in worldly changes? "We certainly hope there will be a political response because nuclear weapons are the most dangerous potential environmental danger to the planet. They'remuch more dangerous than global warming," Robock said.

Regional nuclear exchange causes massive global cooling

A. Robock* , L. Oman* , G. L. Stenchikov* , O. B. Toon** , C. Bardeen** , and R. P. Turco***, µ07

(A. Robock* , L. Oman* , G. L. Stenchikov* , O. B. Toon** , C. Bardeen** , and R. P. Turco***, 4-19-07,³Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conÀicts,´ Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/7/2003/2007/acp-7-2003-2007.pdf) [David Herman]

*Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA

**Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics,University of Colorado, Boulder, USA

***Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, USA

The study showed it doesn't take much nuclear power to drive meteoric results. Whereas the scenarios presumed the countries involved would launch their entire nuclear arsenals, that total is just three-hundredths of a percent of the global arsenal. Will the conclusions result in worldly changes? "Wecertainly hope there will be a political response because nuclear weapons are the most dangerous potential environmental danger to the planet. They're much more dangerous than global warming,"

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Robock said. We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by ores incontemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war betweenemerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of theexplosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We ¿nd signi¿cantcooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The

climate changes are large and long-lasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high andthe subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere,where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous ³nuclear winter´ simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more long-lasting because the older models did notadequately represent the stratospheric plume rise.get zones, may have been an important factor in theend ofthe arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union(Robock, 1989).

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Brink - Highways Collapsing Now

Highway maintenance needs exceed available funds


ROUGH ROADS AHEAD: SAVING AMERICA¶S HIGHWAYS

America¶s $1.75 trillion public highway system is in jeopardy. Years of wear and tear, unrelentingtraffic, an explosion of heavy trucks, deferred maintenance, harsh weather conditions, and soaringconstruction costs have taken their toll on America¶s roads. While the American Reinvestment andRecovery Act of 2009 will provide $27 billion for highway projects, that money will barely make adent in highway maintenance, preservation, and reconstruction needs. The recent AASHTO BottomLine report documented the need for all levels of government to invest $166 billion each year inhighways and bridges. More than half of that amount would be needed for system preservation.Saving

America¶s highways demands more than short- term stimulus funds and quick fixes based on availablefunding. It will require a greater and smarter investment of transportation dollars to ensure a new and better transportation program.



ROUGH ROADS LEAD TO HIGHER COSTS

Only half of the nation¶s major roads are in good condition, based on an analysis of recent FederalHighway Administration data. The situation is worse in high traffic, urban areas where one in four roads are in poor condition. In some major urban centers, more than 60 percent of roads are in poor condition. The American public pays for poor road conditions twice²first through additional vehicleoperating costs and then in higher repair and reconstruction costs. For the average driver, rough roadsadd $335 annually to typical vehicle operating costs. In urban areas with high concentrations of roughroads, extra vehicle operating costs can be as high as $746 annually.Sustaining deteriorating roadscosts significantly more over time than regularly maintaining a road in good condition. Costs per lanemile for reconstruction after 25 years can be more than three times the costs of preservation treatmentsover the same 25-year period. Age, weather conditions, and burgeoning traffic²particularly multi-axle trucks²are eroding ride quality. In eight states, 20 percent of the Interstate highways were rated

as mediocre or poor.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Stimulus Funding Solved


The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, µ09 (The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, ¶09, ³Rough Roads Ahead: Fix

Them Now or Pay for It Later,´ 5-09, http://roughroads.transportation.org/RoughRoads_FullReport.pdf)

Keeping good roads in good condition is the most cost-effective way to save America¶s highways. Butthe needsare high and the available funding limited. For example: Oregon needs $200 million annually over the next 10 years to maintain roads at the current levels. Ithas $130 million available annually.

Texas needs $73 billion during the next 22 years to maintain current conditions. The Department isspending $900 million per year and losing ground.

Rhode Island needs $640 million annually to preserve its highway system and has only $354 millionavailable each year. Stimulus funds will fill in some of the gaps. Oregon will use half of its $224 million of stimulus funds for pavement resurfacing and preservation projects.

Texas is spending $800 million in stimulus funds to stabilize pavement and bridge conditions for thenext few years.

Rhode Island will use its $137 million primarily for preservation and maintenance projects. The extrafunds provide about 5 percent of the projected shortfall in preservation funds over the next 10 years.

South Dakota¶s stimulus allocation will provide about one year¶s worth of preservation funding to helpwith the backlog of needs.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Stimulus doesn¶t solve


ARE WE THERE YET?

No²but we can be. Improved management strategies, a focus on preserving essential public assets, better, longer-lasting materials,new approaches to building highways faster, cheaper, and sooner all will help get us there. But it does come

down to money. It is time for a greater and smarter investment of transportation dollars to ensure a newand better transportation program.

Pennsylvania DOT Secretary and AASHTO President Allen D. Biehler said getting there also involves thinkingdifferently about highways, land use, and our way of life. ³We need to maintain and preserve our highway system first and then begin to think about other influences

at work²global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, where we live and work²that affect traffic congestionand our quality of life,´ Biehler said.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Highways k/t Heg)

Highways are key to deterrence, military readiness, and hegemony

Pike, µ05


The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) system of public highways provides access,continuity, and emergency transportation of personnel and equipment in times of peace and war. The61,000-mile system, designated by the Federal Highway Administration in partnership with DOD,comprises about 45,400 miles of Interstate and defense highways and 15,600 miles of other public

highways. STRAHNET is complemented by about 1,700 miles of connectors²additional highwayroutes linking more than 200 military installations and ports to the network.

The Strategic Highway Network (STRAHNET) is a system of public highways that is a key deterrentin United States strategic policy. It provides defense access, continuity, and emergency capabilities for movements of personnel and equipment in both peace and war. Most large military convoys use theStrategic Highway Network. These routes connect military bases to the interstate highway network andinclude over 15,000 miles of roadway nationally. STRAHNET roadways are those which would beused for the rapid mobilization and deployment of armed forces in the event of war or peacekeepingactivity.

Highways are key to deterrence, military readiness, and hegemony

Pike, µ05


The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 and the National Highway System

Designation Act of 1995 provided for inclusion of STRAHNET and important STRAHNETConnectors in the 160,955-mile National Highway System (NHS). The primary Connector routes for the Priority 1 and 2 installations and ports are included in the NHS. Federal oversight will ensureoptimum maintenance levels for the NHS, thus assuring that the roads can support an emergencydeployment. With DOD¶s current emphasis on continental US-based military units, the NHS will playan increasingly important role in new deployment scenarios.

MTMCTEA's primary concern is deployment of the military forces from the Power Projection

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Platform (PPP) installations (which are DOD's critical installations and are all Priority 1 facilities) totheir respective sea ports of embarkation. This is also the primary objective of FHWA's NationalSecurity Strategic Goal. The secondary concern is deployment from the Power Support Platform (PSP)installations (which are DOD¶s important Priority 1 installations which support the PPPs). Therefore,regarding how the States and FHWA Divisions should address road improvements as it relates to the

installation and port priorities, improvements should be given to the PPP facilities, the PSP facilities,followed by the remaining Priority 1 facilities, and then the Priority 2 facilities. Bridge capability, pavement condition, and congestion are specific issues that should be addressed.

In addition to the strategic requirement of public highways, MTMCTEA is also concerned about thetraffic safety issues associated with highways providing access to these installations. It is imperativethat the number of fatalities and injury and personal property accidents affecting military personnel arereduced. Therefore, the States and FHWA Divisions should also be cognizant of the need to identifytraffic safety issues on military important roads and program the appropriate corrective measures.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Link Extensions (Census k/t Highway Maintenance)

Census key to Highways

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09(Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)Federal Highway Aid. Respondents to the American Community Survey estimate the distance and timetraveled in daily journeys to work. With these figures, the Federal-Aid Highway Program builds newhighways, replaces unsafe bridges and increases surface street mobility. In addition, state andmetropolitan planning organizations use data to provide public transportation services and develop programs to reduce traffic congestion for workers.16 Without a full count of residents, counties andcities will not receive adequate funding or accurate data to get commuters to work safely andefficiently. Overwhelming majorities (94 percent) of undocumented men participate in the labor force,17 so getting an accurate picture of these transportation patterns is necessary if planners are tocreate a more effective transportation infrastructure.

Census guides the FHAReamer fellow at the Brookings Institute 7 (Andrew Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute July 17 2007 Preparations for 2010: Is the Census BureauReady for the Job Ahead?)

State and local transportation planners rely on the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)commissioned by the Federal Highway Administration. Transportation planners use CTPP data²suchas journey-to-work and vehicle ownership data²to evaluate existing conditions, develop and updatetravel demand models, and analyze demographic and travel trends.11 Governments at all levelscontribute $2.6 trillion to our $13.6 trillion economy. In one way or another, decennial census dataguides the use of nearly all of those funds. The influence of census data on the operations of the $11trillion private sector economy is equally pervasive.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Increase = Preexisting

Service-Based Enumeration currently attempts to count the poor and homeless, it just doesn¶t work

Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, 5/12(Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, 5/12/09, http://www.mnhomelesscoalition.org/prepare-now-for-2010-

census/headlines)The Census 2010 SBE operation will occur March 29, 2010 through March 31, 2010. The CensusBureau plans to conduct the 2010 SBE operation over a three-day period.On the first night, enumerators will count persons residing in shelters and temporary arrangements.On the second day, enumerators will interview persons at regularly scheduled mobile food vans and persons at soup kitchens. If individuals at the mobile food vans and soup kitchens report a ³usualresidence,´ they are not included in the SBE operation and are instead included in the general population count.On the third night, enumerators will count persons at pre-identified targeted nonsheltered outdoor locations.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Trade off with Current Jobs

The Census operation needs more takers in order to gather accurate statistics

Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor, 3/18/09

(Terri Ann Lowenthal, Legislative and Policy Consultant, Independent Contractor: Census and FederalStatistics, 3/18/09, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0318_census/20090318_census.pdf)

The funding picture for 2010 is a little fuzzier because the administration has not released a moredetailed budget request and won¶t until next month. The President said in his budget outline that heisproposing full funding for Census operations in 2010 over and above the$1 billion in total additionalfunds included in the stimulus package. I¶m hopeful that the remaining $750 million in the stimulusmoney will be used primarily to reinforce the army of Census takersfanning out across the country nextyear, which is what I think Congress intended, to visit the unresponsive households, of course, becauseI think flooding low mail response areas with Census takers early in the follow-upphase, next April,will help sustain the momentum that surrounds Censusday, and it¶ll move the completion rates rapidly

upward in manycommunities, which builds public confidence. It also results in moreaccurate datacollection, to collect the data as close to Census day as possible, and it leaves more time and resourcesto count the most difficult households.

Peak recruitment efforts will begin this fall

U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09 (U.S. Census Bureau, governmental organization heading the decennial census, 6/10/09http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/)

Our recruiting efforts for 2009 census taker jobs has ended. However, ourpeak recruitment effort begins in the fall of 2009, with the majority of hiring taking place in the spring of 2010. If you would

like to prepare for the upcoming recruitment effort, you may download and print the Census PracticeTest. The practice test is similar to the actual test, which measures basic skills, abilities, and knowledgerequired to perform a variety of census jobs.

Census bureau is in desperate need of enumerators.

Fischman et al., Senior editor, science and tech, 2k (Josh Fischman, et al., Senior editor, science and tech, The Chronicle of Higher Education, author, 4/3/00,³WORK & HOME - Grabbing job hunters by the hair´)

Turning up the heat on what is already the hottest job market in modern history, the Census Bureau plans tohire over 400,000 "enumerators" in the next six weeks for its once-a-decade count. The jobs--most of

which consist of knocking on doors and helping folks fill out census forms-- are temporary, lasting fromone day to several weeks, and offer no benefits. But they offer flexible hours and surprisingly high wages.Many of the jobs can be squeezed into evenings and weekends. And starting hourly wages range from$8.25 in low-cost areas like Duncan, Okla., to $18.50 in expensive cities like New York. The bureau saysit especially needs applicants in tight job markets like Austin, Texas, where the unemployment rate is just2.3 percent. Delton Jolly, chief recruiter for the Austin area, jokes that he's so desperate to fill his 2,000 jobs he's stopping passersby and "grabbing 'em by the hair."

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: You Decrease Immigration

1. We increase immigration --- social services provided by the plan are an immigration magnet

Borjas, Professor of Economics and Social Policy at Harvard- 97 (George J. Borjasan Americaneconomist and the Robert W. Scrivner Professor of Economics and

Social Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, 1997,http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~gborjas/Papers/NR061697.htm)

The welfare state can also have a magnetic effect on immigrants. Welfare programs in the UnitedStates, though not generous by Western European standards, stack up pretty well when compared tothe standard of living available in most of the world's less-developed countries. While it is true thatmany immigrants come to the United States for job opportunities, decades of economic research intothe determinants of migration decisions have demonstrated that it is potential income that is thesignificant factor. And the welfare state provides a lot of income opportunities, especially for personswith few skills. As a result, the question is not whether magnetic effects exist -- they do. Rather, thequestion is whether these magnetic effects are numerically important.Three different types of magnetic

effects influence immigrant behavior. It is possible that welfare programs attract persons whootherwise would not have migrated to the United States. This is the magnetic effect most people havein mind, but is also the one about which there is least empirical evidence. Second, the safety net mightalso discourage immigrants who "fail" in the United States from returning to their home countries. Arecent study (by economists Randall Olsen and Patricia Regan of Ohio State University) provides thefirst hint of such a magnetic effect by showing that the probability of out-migration is greatly reducedif the household receives public assistance in the United States. Finally, magnetic effects arise from thehuge disparities between different states' welfare benefits. In 1970, California's AFDC benefit levelwas only 68 per cent that of the median state; twenty years later it was 2.5 times that of the medianstate. By 1990, California's benefit package was the second most generous in the nation (surpassedonly by Alaska's). It turns out that the fraction of new immigrants not on welfare who chose to live in

California dropped between 1980 and 1990, from 30.1 to 28.9 per cent. But the fraction of newimmigrants on welfare who chose to live in California rose sharply, from 36.9 to 45.4 per cent. Theevidence, therefore, suggests a clustering effect upon immigrant welfare recipients as California's benefit level rose above that of other states.The existence of ethnic networks and magnetic effectsimplies that immigrants respond to variations in welfare benefits. As a result, it should not be toosurprising that the welfare problem in the immigrant population has grown considerably in the past twodecades.

2. Immigrants are drawn to America through social services

Gorak, Executive Director of the Midwest Coalition to Reduce Immigration, 08 (Dave Gorak, Executive Director of the Midwest Coalition to Reduce Immigration. He also spoke at a

roundtable on immigrationintegrationhttp://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_18_4/tsc_18_4_gorak.shtml)These immigrants, while like previous newcomers in certain respects, are in fact dramatically different because they have the luxury of a welfare safety net to prop them up if they fail to achieve their versionof a better life. This luxury wasn¶t available to many of the 24 million immigrants who came hereduring the 1880±1924 ³Great Wave´ but returned to their own countries during economic downturns.Malanga writes, for example, that almost 60 percent of foreigners in this country during the GreatDepression packed up and left.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





In short, immigrants in the past arrived willing to risk all for the opportunity to better themselves;today¶s arrivals come with a sense of entitlement because of the services now available to them,including ³free´ education and health care and (in certain states) driver¶s licenses and in-state tuitionrates. Our government¶s willingness to spare no effort to coddle Hispanics, which includes refusing toenforce its own immigration laws, has done much to shatter the unity and quality of life in many

communities, including Selma, Calif., Hanson¶s own hometown. What¶s taken place in Selma duringthe past 50 years led to Hanson¶s celebrated work, M exifornia

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: STATES HIRE WORKERSA. Perm, do both

B. Perm, do plan then CP

C. Perm PIC, do plan and states minus California

California economic collapse spills over to US economic collapse

Newsmax.com, µ09(Newsmax.com, 6-29-09, ³California's Collapse Could Drag Down U.S. Economy,´http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/us_california_why_it_matters/2009/06/29/230110.html)

California faces a $24 billion budget shortfall, an eye-popping amount that dwarfs many states' entireannual spending plans.

Beyond California's borders, why should anyone care that the home of Google and the Walt DisneyCo. might stop paying its bills next week?

Virtually all states are suffering in the recession, some worse than California. But none has theeconomic horsepower of the world's eighth-largest economy, home to one in eight Americans.

California accounts for 12 percent of the nation's gross domestic product and the largest share of retailsales of any state. It also sends far more in tax revenue to the federal government than it receives ² giving a dollar for every 80 cents it gets back ² which means Californians are keeping social programs afloat across the country.

While the deficit only affects the state, California's deepening economic malaise could make it harder for the entire nation's economy to recover.

When the state stumbles, its sheer size ² 38.3 million people ² creates fallout for businesses fromTexas to Michigan.

"California is the key catalyst for U.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S.economy suffer significantly," said retail consultant Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of StrategicResource Group. He warned of more bankruptcies of national retail chains and brand suppliers.

Even if California lawmakers solve the deficit quickly, there will likely be more government furloughs

and layoffs and tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts. That will ripple through the state economy,sowing fear of even more job losses.

California econ key to U.S. econ

Associated Press, 2009Associated Press, Anne D'Innocenzio in New York; Kevin Freking in Washington, D.C.; and Kimberly Johnson in Detroit, June 29,2009, http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/us_california_why_it_matters/2009/06/29/230110.html

8/7/2019 Census AFF





California faces a $24 billion budget shortfall, an eye-popping amount that dwarfs many states' entire annual spending plans.

Beyond California's borders, why should anyone care that the home of Google and the Walt Disney Co. mightstop paying its bills next week? Virtually all states are suffering in the recession, some worse than California. But none has the

economic horsepower of the world's eighth-largest economy, home to one in eight Americans. California accounts for 12 percent of the nation's gross domestic product and the largest share of retail sales of any state. It also sends far

more in tax revenue to the federal government than it receives ² giving a dollar for every 80 cents it gets back ² whichmeans Californians are keeping social programs afloat across the country. While the deficit only affects the state, California's

deepening economic malaise could make it harder for the entire nation's economy to recover. When the state stumbles, its sheersize ² 38.3 million people ² creates fallout for businessesfrom Texas to Michigan. "California is the key catalystfor U.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S. economy suffer significantly," said retailconsultant Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group. He warned of more bankruptcies of national retailchains and brand suppliers. Even if California lawmakers solve the deficit quickly, there will likely be more government furloughsand layoffs and tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts. That will ripple through the state economy, sowing fear of even more joblosses. Californians have already been scaling back for months as the state's unemployment rate has climbed to a record 11.5 percentin May. Increases to the income, sales and vehicle license taxes approved by lawmakers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in Februaryacted as a further drag on spending. Personal income declined in California in 2008 for the first time since the Great Depression, andincome tax revenue fell by 34 percent during the first five months of this year. The decrease in spending is especially evident inautomobiles. California is the nation's largest single auto market, and sales are down 40 percent from last year. Auto dealers see little

hope of a quick turnaround, especially after a 1 percentage point increase in the state sales tax and hike of the vehicle license fee.State agencies also canceled contracts for hundreds of new vehicles, retroactive to March, said Brian Maas, director of governmentaffairs for the California New Car Dealers Association.

D. Economic collapse causes extinction

Bearden 2000 (Tom; Lt. Col. U.S. Army Retired, The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly 6/24

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3aaf97f22e23.htm accessed 8/6/04)

History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions.Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will

have increased the intensity and number of theirconflicts, to the point where the arsenals ofweapons of

mass destruction (WMD)now possessedby some 25 nations,are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a

starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate

China-whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States-attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such

scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that,under such

extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then

compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is

this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed.Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has

to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as

rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs.Today, a great

percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will

destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.

Economic Collapse causes Nuke War

Mead, Fellow in U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, 2009Walter Russel MeadSenior Fellowin U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on ForeignRelations2009,http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crisesactually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. Iffinancial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under theAnglophone powers, so has war . The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of warsis almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, butthe Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward MoscowKarachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the

world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

D. CP links to the net benefit

E. Status theory

F. 50 State Fiat Bad

i. coherent decision maker: no rational decision maker that can decide between state and federal action--- destroys policy analysis cost-benefit analysis --- kills value of debate as a simulation of real world policymaking

ii. no real states debate --- fiat removes the educational value of states debates --- no debate over race tothe bottom or interstate competition

iii. corrals the topic --- we end up debating the same affs every year in order to avoid states --- constantdiscussion about the military, natives, and the postal service is mind-numbingly boring and kills topic specificeducation

v. encourages boring generic neg debates every round and kills educationvi. agent fiat snowballs into absurdity --- example = have China fund census workers

G. No Solvency Advocate is a voter issue

i. Divorces us from the literature base

ii. Aff can¶t get any offenseiii. Destroys education

iv. Solvency advocate provides essential limiter

H. The Census Bureau is controlled by the department of commerce --- any violation would be a

violation of federal law

United States Government Printing Office, µ08

(United States Government Printing Office, 12-23-08, ³TITLE 13 ² CENSUS, CHAPTER 1² ADMINISTRATION, SUBCHAPTER I--GENERAL PROVISIONS,´ http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi- bin/usc.cgi?ACTION=RETRIE

VE&FILE=$$xa$$busc13.wais&start=13778&SIZE=1250&TYPE=TEXT)

Sec. 2. Bureau of the Census

The Bureau is continued as an agency within, and under the jurisdiction of, the Department of Commerce.

I. Violation of U.S. Code, Title 13 would result in Federal Rollback of the counterplan

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: AGENT CPA. Perm, do both


C. CP links to the net benefit

D. Status theory

E. 50 State Fiat Bad

i. coherent decision maker: no rational decision maker that can decide between a separate actorand federal action --- destroys policy analysis cost-benefit analysis --- kills value of debate as asimulation of real world policymaking

ii. not germane to the aff --- no literature means no predictability for the aff, no preparation, and un-educational, boring debates

iii. makes it impossble for the aff to win --- someone else can always do the plan --- the possibilitiesfor actor CP¶s are infinite and the aff will never be able to prepare for them --- expands negground so much that the aff can¶t cover

iv. encourages boring generic neg debates every round and kills educationv. just another step towards absurdity --- eventually we¶ll be having China fund census workers

F. No Solvency Advocate is a voter --- at worst it just makes our theory arguments much more

devastating


ii. Aff can¶t get any offense

iii. Destroys educationiv. Solvency advocate provides essential limiter

G. The Census Bureau is controlled by the department of commerce --- any violation would be a


United States Government Printing Office, µ08

(United States Government Printing Office, 12-23-08, ³TITLE 13 ² CENSUS, CHAPTER 1² ADMINISTRATION, SUBCHAPTER I--GENERAL PROVISIONS,´ http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi- bin/usc.cgi?ACTION=RETRIEVE&FILE=$$xa$$busc13.wais&start=13778&SIZE=1250&TYPE=TEXT)



H. Violation of U.S. Code, Title 13 would result in Federal rejection/rollback of the counterplan

8/7/2019 Census AFF





8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: SAMPLING SOLVES CP (1/2)A. Perm, do both

B. Samplingpmanipulation and an unfair census

Shibler, staff writer, JBS.org, µ09(Ann Shibler, staff writer, JBS.org, 2-10-09, ³Census Manipulation: Politicizing the Count,´http://www.jbs.org/jbs-news-feed/4498)

Emanuel may be able to manipulate the outcome by ³tweaking´ the process ² abolishing the directdoor-to-door count and instituting the ³sampling´ technique (more of a projection or estimation) ² and therefore, he will be able to redraw Congressional districts and electoral college numbers. Of course, other spending is affected by population counts such as improvements to infrastructure andsocial programs.Cooking the books is far easier when sampling is used, as opposed to a morehonest canvassing of the people. President Clinton already tried this technique in a limited fashion, andin 1999, amazingly enough, the Supreme Court said sampling could not be used in redistricting. But

usurping the process and placing it in the White House would eliminate any such hazard.Accordingto a White House spokesperson "there is historic precedent for the director of the census, who worksfor the Commerce secretary and the president, to work closely with White House senior management -given the number of decisions that will have to be put before the president." The LA Timesreported that the move was pushed by several minority groups. The National Association of LatinoElected Officials (NALEO) claims they are worried about the Commerce Department being able to produce an accurate count of the nation¶s people.But the Constitution of the United States says thatin counting the people, an actual ³enumeration´ shall be used, and Title 13 of the U.S. Code says theBureau of the Census is ³an agency within, and under the jurisdiction of, the Department of Commerce,´ and that the census is to be be administered ³within, and under the jurisdiction of, theDepartment of Commerce.´House Minority Leader John Boehner opposes the switch to White

House oversight. "The United States Census should remain independent of politics; it should not bedirected by political operatives working out of the White House," he said. He told Fox News Sundaythat the move signals a new politicalization of the counting:The Constitution says that every ten years there will be a count of all persons who live in the UnitedStates. That means that we need to have an actual count. And why this has to be moved from theCommerce Department over to the chief of staff¶s office, I would think he¶d have better things to do,than to coordinate the census, but apparently they have ideas about what they might want to do to politicize the counting of our population next year.Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) have sent a letter containing some prettysharp comments based on remarkably good constitutional principles to the White House protesting the plan to transfer census authority, duly noting that the move is probably a violation of a federal law:

Requiring the Census Director to report directly to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is ashamefully transparent attempt by your Administration to politicize the Census Bureau and manipulatethe 2010 Census. The Constitutionally-mandated Decennial Census needs to be fair, accurate andtrusted. By circumventing the Secretary of Commerce¶s oversight of the Census Bureau and handing itdirectly to a political operative such as Mr. Emanuel, you are severely jeopardizing the fairness andaccuracy of the 2010 Census. Mr. Emanuel, who is a former colleague and Democratic CongressionalCampaign Committee Chairman, has a reputation that has been described as ³one of hyper- partisanship,´ and thus has no business overseeing the activities of the Census Bureau, a division of the

8/7/2019 Census AFF


8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: SAMPLING SOLVES CP (2/2)

C. Samplingp political manipulation and an unfair census --- links to our impacts

Barone, staff writer, US News & World Report, µ09(Michael Barone, staff writer, US News & World Report, 2-25-09, ³Will Obama White House Politicians Cookthe Census Numbers?,´ http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/mbarone/2009/02/25/will-obama-white-house- politicians-cook-the-census-numbers.html?PageNr=2)

The black and Hispanic groups are concerned that blacks and Hispanics will not be fully counted. Thisis not a new issue. Census statisticians have known since the 1970s that there have been undercounts of people in neighborhoods with high crime rates or large numbers of illegal immigrants. Census Bureau professionals have worked to measure these undercounts and to minimize them by using officialrecords and enlisting local volunteers to locate residents. Their efforts have had some success, sincethe undercount was lower in 2000 than in 1990. Nonetheless, there have been demands that the census numbers be adjusted by statistical sampling. TheSupreme Court ruled in 1999 that sampling could not be used to apportion House districts among thestates but left open whether it could be used for other purposes. But after an intensive, three-year study,census professionals said in 2003 that they could not guarantee that sampling would produce a moreaccurate count than the enumeration decreed by the Constitution. As then Census Director LouisKincannon said: "Adjustment based on sampling didn't produce improved figures." Sampling might produce a more accurate number for large units but not for smaller units²just as the sampling error in public opinion polls is small for the total population but much larger for small subgroups. At the block level, sampling would result in imputing people who aren't actually there.The potential for political mischief, political overrepresentation, and greater federal funding for favored groups is obvious, just as Congress's refusal to reapportion after the 1920 census resulted in political overrepresentation of low growth rural areas and underrepresentation of then booming big

cities.

D. Sampling method to solve undercount is unconstitutional and not viable for the 2010 Census.

The Week, 7/24

(The Week, 7/24/09, http://www.theweek.com/article/index/98607/Census_Bureau_The_counting_of_America)

Many believe that the Census Bureau would get better results by using statistical sampling methods.As with polling, the process involves obtaining information about a small segment of the population;from that sample, experts make educated estimates about the uncounted portion. Any use of statisticalsampling would likely supplement²not necessarily replace²the old-fashioned census methods. Butstatistical sampling is extremely divisive.

Why is sampling controversial?Because supporters and opponents tend to break down along partisan lines. Democrats favor sampling because the people who are traditionally hardest to count are the urban poor, minorities, andimmigrants, all of whom tend to live in Democratic strongholds and vote Democratic. These groupsare often undercounted because they move so frequently and do not trust government employeesasking questions. Republicans, by contrast, stress that the Constitution specifies an ³actualenumeration´ of the population, not an estimate. They also argue that statistical sampling is inferior tocounting. ³Anyone familiar with public opinion polling can tell you that statistical sampling carries a

8/7/2019 Census AFF





margin of error,´ Republican Reps. Darrell Issa and Patrick McHenry recently wrote. ³And error is theenemy of a full and accurate census.´

Is a change in methodology likely? Not anytime soon. In 1999, the Supreme Court ruled by a 5±4 vote that statistical sampling, which theDemocratic Clinton administration had hoped to employ, could not be used to reapportion House seats.

The decision did leave open the possibility that sampling could be used to decide how congressionaldistricts are drawn and to determine the flow of money within them.But while the Obamaadministration may be interested in going that route, as both a political and practical matter, it¶s not possible at this point. The 2010 census is ³a rocket on the launch pad, and they¶re about to ignite it,´says former census director Kenneth Prewitt. ³We can¶t redesign rocket fuel at this stage.´ Nevertheless, the dispute over sampling hangs like a shadow over the 2010 census.

E. Its illegal and there¶s not enough time to change methods

Williams Specialist in American National Government 4/27/09 (Jennifer Williams Specialist in American National Government 4/27/09http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40551_20090427.pdf)

The Supreme Court ruled in 1999 (525 U.S. 316 (1999)) that adjustment of the reapportionmentnumbers would be illegal under Title 13 U.S.C., Section 195, but was silent about whether it would beunconstitutional. The issue has been contentious for more than two decades and, despite the 1999Court ruling, continues to generate controversy. Whereas supporters of adjustment argue that it isnecessary to rectify the undercount problem, opponents maintain that use of the procedure would makethe census vulnerable to political manipulation. Acting Bureau Director Thomas Mesenbourg, asked bythe ranking Member of the House Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census, and NationalArchives in a March 5, 2009 census oversight hearing if the Bureau will conduct a 2010 censuscoverage evaluation survey, replied that it will and that ³[t]he sample size will be about 300,000housing units,´ as in the 2000 census Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation. 37 ³The focus of the 2010

coverage measurement program,´ according to the Acting Director, ³is to provide better informationabout the components of error. So we¶ll be providing data not only on the net error, but alsocomponents of error such as duplicates, omissions, and so on.´38 The coverage measurement programwill serve both to evaluate the 2010 census and to indicate how the 2020 enumeration can beimproved. The Acting Director, questioned about whether the Bureau intends to use the program for adjustment, answered that it does not.39 Nevertheless, the Obama Administration¶s nominations of Gary Locke, the former Governor of Washington, to be Commerce Secretary and Robert Groves, astatistician and demographer, for Census Bureau Director have provided occasions for some Membersof Congress to seek further assurance that sampling for adjustment will not play a role in the 2010census. Secretary-designate Locke told the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, andTransportation at his March 18, 2009 confirmation hearing, ³The Supreme Court has made it very

clear that statistical sampling is not permissible for apportionment purposes. That is the law. We willenforce the law.´40 The committee¶s ranking Member then noted that ³the Supreme Court did notspecifically mention the intrastate redistricting,´ and asked whether sampling will be used to adjust thedata for this purpose.41 The nominee replied, ³It is my understanding that there are no plans in theDepartment of Commerce or the Census Bureau to use any type of plans in the Department of Commerce or the Census Bureau to use any type of statistical sampling with respect to [the] populationcount.´42

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: END IMMIGRATION RAIDS CP

A. Perm, do both

B. Latinos will boycott the census pending on the legalization of all undocumented immigrants --- CP

can¶t solve

Shawn, staff writer, Foxnews.com, 6-23-09, (Eric Shawn, staff writer, Foxnews.com, 6-23-09, ³Latino Leaders Call for Illegal Immigrants to BoycottCensus,´ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/23/latino-leaders-illegal-immigrants-boycott-census/)

The Census is known as the definitive head count that is supposed to reflect the makeup of thecountry.But now some Latino leaders want illegal immigrants to boycott the national survey, claiming that being counted -- but not represented -- isn't fair."It doesn't make any sense, in some way it is immoral that we are counting 12 million undocumented

immigrants who have no benefit at all financially speaking," said Rev. Miguel Rivera, president of the National Coalition of Latino Clergy & Christian Leaders.Rivera, whose conservative group of evangelicals is behind the boycott, admitted that tellingundocumented immigrants not to participate in the Census is a radical step. But he said it is the onlyway to make a political point to push immigration reform."We are getting nothing at all. ... Why not fix this issue, have legalization for every undocumentedimmigrant, no more undocumented people in this country, and everybody can be counted andeverybody will have a fair share," he said.

Latinos will boycott ± ending raids alone don¶t solve.

Sherman, Wall Street Journal Reporter, 7/1

(Jake Sherman, Wall Street Journal Reporter, 7/1/09,http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124646713043481165.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Some Latino activists are seeking to drum up support among undocumented immigrants to boycott the2010 census as a strategy to prod the federal government to overhaul immigration laws.If it gains traction, the effort led by the Rev. Miguel Rivera, head of the National Coalition of LatinoClergy and Christian Leaders, could undermine the count and affect the distribution of federal fundsand apportionment of House seats.Mr. Rivera is using a network of Latino churches, many of them storefronts in urban areas nationwide,to enlist supporters. Many of the 20,000 pastors in his organization are using the pulpit to urge their more than four million congregants to avoid the census.The effort is joined by Los Angeles activist Nativo V. Lopez, who is seeking to stir up support among

the 310,000 members of his Mexican-American Political Association, which advocates Latino rights.Mr. Rivera estimated that one million people already have agreed not to participate in the count. Whileit is hard to say how many will follow through, the boycott effort threatens to exacerbate problems theCensus Bureau already has in counting undocumented immigrants. While refusing to answer basiccensus questions is illegal, charges are rarely filed.

C. Can¶t solve the majority of our aff --- they only target Latino immigrants while we solve for all poor

people --- only a small percentage of those in poverty

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Levitan, Economist And Social Policy Scholar, 2003(Sar A. Levitan, Economist And Social Policy Scholar, 2003, ³Programs in Aid of the Poor: 8

thEdition,´

JHU Press, pg. 14,http://books.google.com/books?id=5S9fva8SA0QC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_navlinks_s)

Although the poverty rates of white, non-Hispanic persons are comparatively low, because theyconstitute such a large proportion of the total population, they accounted for 47 percent of the nation¶s poor in 2000, compared to 50 percent in 1987. The proportions of blacks among the poor declinedfrom 29 percent to 25 percent; the poor Hispanic proportion grew from 17 percent to 23 percent.Asians accounted for less than 1 percent of the poor in 1987 and only a little more than 1 percent in2000.

D. Can¶t solve at all --- illegal immigrants would be unable to vote or receive social services even if they

were counted

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: LEGALIZATION/AMNESTY CP (1/2)

A. Perm, do the plan and the counterplan

B. Providing amnesty/legalization would increase unemployment in America

NumbersUSA, µ09

(NumbersUSA 2009, ³Do Unemployed Americans Deserve Suspension of Most Immigration?,´http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/with-jobless-rates-like-these-how-can-anybody-consider-more-foreign-worker)

The Americans represented in the above statistics are actively searching for a job and cannot find evena part-time job.

Those unemployed Americans in that table above primarily are looking for jobs in the same non-agricultural occupations where illegal foreign workers are currently employed ± manufacturing,

service, construction. An April 2009 study by the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that more than 8million illegal foreign workers hold U.S. jobs. Any talk of legalizing those illegal workers is talk aboutkeeping the Americans above out of those 8 million jobs.

Additionally, most of the hundreds of thousands of immigrants entering the country legally this year under extended-family categories and the visa lottery also will be competing for jobs with theseunemployed Americans.

Isn¶t the compassionate option to suspend most immigration (at the least, suspend chain-migration andvisa lottery immigration) and stop making it more difficult for jobless Americans to find a job?

C. Unemployment kills economic recovery

Felsenthal and Bull, Reuters.com, µ09(Mark Felsenthal and Alister Bull, Reuters.com, 7-22-09, ³Unemployment could undercut U.S. recovery:Bernanke,´ http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56K0AI20090722)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday said the outlook for the long-suffering U.S.economy was improving, but supportive policies would be needed for some time to prevent risingunemployment from undercutting recovery.Delivering the Fed's semiannual report on the economy to Congress, Bernanke also sought to dispelconcerns the U.S. central bank's aggressive monetary easing could end up fueling inflation, saying he

was confident the Fed could pull back its extraordinary stimulus when the time was right."Better conditions in financial markets have been accompanied by some improvement in economic prospects," Bernanke told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. "Despite these positive signs, the rate of job loss remains high."While housing and household spending appear to be stabilizing, unemployment is likely to remainuncomfortably high into 2011 and could sap fragile consumer confidence, he warned."The (Fed) believes that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will be appropriate for anextended period," Bernanke said.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





The sober assessment weighed on U.S. stocks, and major indexes were close to flat in midafternoon.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: LEGALIZATION/AMNESTY CP (2/2)

D. US recovery key to world economy

Hill, staff writer, Washington Times, µ09

(Patrice Hill, staff writer, Washington Times, 4-26-09, ³World looks to U.S. to spark recovery,´http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/26/world-looks-to-us-to-spark-recovery/)

While much of the world blames the United States for triggering the global financial crisis andrecession, most nations also are looking to America to start pulling the rest of the world out of theslump.A parade of foreign financial leaders in town for this weekend's spring meetings of the InternationalMonetary Fund and World Bank denounced the financial excesses on Wall Street that have costmillions of jobs and caused trillions of dollars in lost output from Detroit to New Delhi. Yet they alsohailed some tentative signs of stabilization in the U.S. economy after a winter of free fall that led theworld economy into its worst downturn in modern times.

"The beginning of the recovery has to come from the United States, and will come from the UnitedStates," said IMF director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, reflecting widespread hopes that signs of improvement emerging in the United States this spring will blossom into a full-fledged global recovery by the first half of next year.Mr. Strauss-Kahn and others were quick to add that "the crisis is far from over" and there are "still longmonths of economic distress in front of us." But he hung his hopes on tenuous signs that U.S.consumer spending stopped falling early this year, while housing and a few other vital sectors morerecently appear to be bottoming out after plunging to their worst levels in decades.

E. Economic collapse causes World War Three

Mead, 9 ± Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations

(Walter Russell, ³Only Makes You Stronger,´ The New Republic, 2/4/09,http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)The damage to China's position is more subtle. The crisis has not--yet--led to the nightmare scenario that China-watchers fear: a recession or slowdown producing the kind of social unrest that could challenge the governmentThat may still come to pass--the recent economic news from China has been consistently worse than mostexperts predicted--but, even if the worst case is avoided, the financial crisis has nevertheless had significanteffects. For one thing, it has reminded China that its growth remains dependent on the health of the U.S.economy. For another, it has shown that China's modernization is likely to be long, dangerous, and complexrather than fast and sweet, as some assumed. In the lead-up to last summer's Beijing Olympics, talk of aChinese bid to challenge America's global position reached fever pitch, and the inexorable rise of China is onereason why so many commentators are fretting about the "post-American era." But suggestions that China could

grow at, say, 10 percent annually for the next 30 years were already looking premature before the economicdownturn. (In late 2007, the World Bank slashed its estimate of China's GDP by 40 percent, citing inaccuraciesin the methods used to calculate purchasing power parity.) And the financial crisis makes it certain that China'sgrowth is likely to be much slower during some of those years. Already exports are falling, unemployment isrising, and the Shanghai stock market is down about 60 percent. At the same time, Beijing will have to devotemore resources and more attention to stabilizing Chinese society, building a national health care system, providing a social security net, and caring for an aging population, which, thanks to the one-child policy, willneed massive help from the government to support itself in old age. Doing so will leave China fewer resources

8/7/2019 Census AFF





for military build-ups and foreign adventures. As the crisis has forcefully reminded Americans, creating andregulating a functional and flexible financial system is difficult. Every other country in the world hasexperienced significant financial crises while building such systems, and China is unlikely to be an exception.All this means that China's rise looks increasingly like a gradual process. A deceleration in China's long-termgrowth rate would postpone indefinitely the date when China could emerge as a peer competitor to the United

States. The present global distribution of power could be changing slowly, if at all. The greatest danger bothtoU.S.-China relationsand to American power itself is probably not that China will rise too far, too fast; it isthat the current crisis might end China's growth miracle. In the worst-case scenario, the turmoil in theinternational economy will plunge China into a major economic downturn. The Chinese financial system willimplode as loans to both state and private enterprises go bad. Millions or even tens of millions of Chinese will be unemployed in a country without an effective social safety net. The collapse of asset bubbles in the stock and property markets will wipe out the savings of a generation of the Chinese middle class. The politicalconsequences could include dangerous unrest--and a bitter climate of anti-foreign feeling that blames others for China's woes. (Think of Weimar Germany, when both Nazi and communist politicians blamed the West for Germany's economic travails.) Worse, instability could lead to a vicious cycle, as nervous investors movedtheir money out of the country, further slowing growth and, in turn, fomenting ever-greater bitterness. Thanks to

a generation of rapid economic growth, China has so far been able to manage the stresses and conflicts of modernization and change; nobody knows what will happen if the growth stops. India's future is also aquestion. Support for global integration is a fairly recent development in India, and many serious Indians remainskeptical of it. While India's 60-year-old democratic system has resisted many shocks, a deep economicrecession in a country where mass poverty and even hunger are still major concerns could undermine politicalorder, long-term growth, and India's attitude toward the United States and global economic integration. Theviolent Naxalite insurrection plaguing a significant swath of the country could get worse; religious extremismamong both Hindus and Muslims could further polarize Indian politics; and India's economic miracle could benipped in the bud. If current market turmoil seriously damaged the performance and prospects of India andChina, the current crisis could join the Great Depression in the list of economic events that changed history

even if the recessions in the West are relatively short and mild. The United States should stand ready to assist

Chinese and Indian financial authorities on an emergency basis--and work very hard to help both countriesescape or at least weather any economic downturn. It may test the political will of the Obama administration, but the United States must avoid a protectionist response to the economic slowdown. U.S. moves to limitmarket access for Chinese and Indian producers could poison relations for years. For billions of people in

nuclear-armed countries to emerge from this crisis believing either that the United States was indifferent totheir well-being or that it had profited from their distress could damage U.S. foreign policy far more severely than any mistake made by George W. Bush. It's not just the great powers whose trajectories have beenaffected by the crash. Lesser powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran also face new constraints. The crisis hasstrengthened the U.S. position in the Middle East as falling oil prices reduce Iranian influence and increase thedependence of the oil sheikdoms on U.S. protection. Success in Iraq--however late, however undeserved,however limited--had already improved the Obama administration's prospects for addressing regional crises.

Now, the collapse in oil prices has put the Iranian regime on the defensive. The annual inflation rate rose above29 percent last September, up from about 17 percent in 2007, according to Iran's Bank Markazi. Economistsforecast that Iran's real GDP growth will drop markedly in the coming months as stagnating oil revenues andthe continued global economic downturn force the government to rein in its expansionary fiscal policy. All thishas weakened Ahmadinejad at home and Iran abroad. Iranian officials must balance the relative merits of support for allies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria against domestic needs, while international sanctions andother diplomatic sticks have been made more painful and Western carrots (like trade opportunities) have become more attractive. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and other oil states have become more dependent on the

8/7/2019 Census AFF





United States for protection against Iran, and they have fewer resources to fund religious extremism as they usediminished oil revenues to support basic domestic spending and development goals. None of this makes theMiddle East an easy target for U.S. diplomacy, but thanks in part to the economic crisis, the incomingadministration has the chance to try some new ideas and to enter negotiations with Iran (and Syria) from a position of enhanced strength. Every crisis is different, but there seem to be reasons why, over time, financial

crises on balance reinforce rather than undermine the world position of the leading capitalist countries. Sincecapitalism first emerged in early modern Europe, the ability to exploit the advantages of rapid economicdevelopment has been a key factor in international competition. Countries that can encourage--or at least allowand sustain--the change, dislocation, upheaval, and pain that capitalism often involves, while providing their tumultuous market societies with appropriate regulatory and legal frameworks, grow swiftly. They producecutting-edge technologies that translate into military and economic power. They are able to invest in education,making their workforces ever more productive. They typically develop liberal political institutions and culturalnorms that value, or at least tolerate, dissent and that allow people of different political and religious viewpointsto collaborate on a vast social project of modernization--and to maintain political stability in the face of accelerating social and economic change. The vast productive capacity of leading capitalist powers gives themthe ability to project influence around the world and, to some degree, to remake the world to suit their own

interests and preferences. This is what the United Kingdom and the United States have done in past centuries,and what other capitalist powers like France, Germany, and Japan have done to a lesser extent. In thesecountries, the social forces that support the idea of a competitive market economy within an appropriatelyliberal legal and political framework are relatively strong. But, in many other countries where capitalism rubs people the wrong way, this is not the case. On either side of the Atlantic, for example, the Latin world is oftendrawn to anti-capitalist movements and rulers on both the right and the left. Russia, too, has never really takento capitalism and liberal society--whether during the time of the czars, the commissars, or the post-cold war leaders who so signally failed to build a stable, open system of liberal democratic capitalism even as manyformer Warsaw Pact nations were making rapid transitions. Partly as a result of these internal cultural pressures,and partly because, in much of the world, capitalism has appeared as an unwelcome interloper, imposed byforeign forces and shaped to fit foreign rather than domestic interests and preferences, many countries are only

half-heartedly capitalist. When crisis strikes, they are quick to decide that capitalism is a failure and look for alternatives. So far, such half-hearted experiments not only have failed to work; they have left the societies thathave tried them in a progressively worse position, farther behind the front-runners as time goes by. Argentinahas lost ground to Chile; Russian development has fallen farther behind that of the Baltic states and CentralEurope. Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can alsostrengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determinedto resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in thesesocieties are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than moreestablished firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism hasrelatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as,

inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the globaldistribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powersmaintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war.The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the AmericanRevolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as thelist of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but

8/7/2019 Census AFF





the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis

turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or

New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back ontrack, we may still have to fight.

F. Can¶t solve the majority of our aff --- they only target Latino immigrants while we solve for all poorpeople

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: State Outreach CP

A. Perm, do both


C. No solvency --- outreach programs empirically fail to reach the poor

The World Bank Group, µ01 (The World Bank Group, 2001, ³Why Have Government Programs Failed to Reach the Poor,´ MIT,http://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/upgrading/whatis/why-govt-fail.html)

Experience indicates that the failure of the state to respond to the basic infrastructure service needs of the poor stems from the following key constraints:

* Lack of demand-responsiveness and transparency in selection; typically, line departments aresupply driven and responsiveness is often skewed by ill-informed political pressure.

* Centralized line departments with little outreach at the local level.* Multiplicity of service delivery institutions with no coordination and following disparate policies* Lack of community participation and contribution at any level, resulting in lack of ownership by

the communities. The misguided notion that the poor are unable to pay for services is deeply ingrainedamongst decision makers. Traditionally communities do not contribute at all to the capital costs of investments, and are then expected to ³own´ them and contribute towards O&M.

* Lack of willingness to build on the community¶s own efforts, or acknowledge the ability of thecommunity to undertake community works. Where communities have undertaken ³internal´ or secondary and tertiary infrastructure, the state has disregarded these efforts, and also failed to providethe requisite ³external´ or primary infrastructure.

* High service levels and technical standards, resulting in unnecessarily high costs. Incremental

improvements and appropriate standards are not generally considered in traditional approaches.* Issues of governance and graft.* Lack of resources for Operation and Maintenance of investments, coupled with lack of clear

ownership and responsibility for undertaking O&M. Communities and Local Councils, who do not participate in identifying, planning and implementing infrastructure, have little incentive to maintain it.

* Poor Monitoring and Evaluation, resulting in ill informed management decisions and lack of information on actual impact; and finally,

* Lack of a clear policy framework to address these issues.

The crux of the problem lies in providing effective interfaces between the state machinery and the poor, to allow it to respond appropriately and effectively to their needs, and then embodying such best

practices in policies.

D. CP links to the net benefit

E. Status theory

F. 50 State Fiat Bad

8/7/2019 Census AFF





i. coherent decision maker: no rational decision maker that can decide between state and federal action--- destroys policy analysis cost-benefit analysis --- kills value of debate as a simulation of real world policymaking

ii. no real states debate --- fiat removes the educational value of states debates --- no debate over race tothe bottom or interstate competition

iii. corrals the topic --- we end up debating the same affs every year in order to avoid states --- constantdiscussion about the military, natives, and the postal service is mind-numbingly boring and kills topic specificeducation

v. encourages boring generic neg debates every round and kills educationvi. agent fiat snowballs into absurdity --- example = have China fund census workers

G. No Solvency Advocate is a voter issue


ii. Aff can¶t get any offense

iii. Destroys education

iv. Solvency advocate provides essential limiter

H. The Census Bureau is controlled by the department of commerce --- any violation would be a


United States Government Printing Office, µ08(United States Government Printing Office, 12-23-08, ³TITLE 13 ² CENSUS, CHAPTER 1² ADMINISTRATION, SUBCHAPTER I--GENERAL PROVISIONS,´ http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi- bin/usc.cgi?ACTION=RETRIEVE&FILE=$$xa$$busc13.wais&start=13778&SIZE=1250&TYPE=TEXT)



I. Violation of U.S. Code, Title 13 would result in Federal Rollback of the counterplan

8/7/2019 Census AFF


8/7/2019 Census AFF





of the government to work with these people. People want more than material resources, especially theyouth. Spiritual needs are very strong. They want their God-given human dignity to be respected.People experience this when they try to rebuild themselves, when they need to change their lives andno one offers to help. People need to believe in something. They need certainty, values, generosity andauthority. Look at this picture of Saint Therese of Lisieux on the wall. It¶s magnificent. And I can tell

you, this woman, her meditation, her prayers, even as I am speaking right now, are brightening thelives of millions of Americans. She gives them hope and strength to live. More than ever, faith is acentral need in this country. This can clearly be seen in the beginning of the revival of the CatholicChurch, the power that African-American churches wield, or the growth of evangelical churches. 95%of Americans say they believe in God. The issue of values is very important. The 2004 election,incidentally, was won on this issue.

Acknowledgment of the power of social ties are key to interact with impoverished communities


Poverty has many dimensions. Social capital ± the norms and networks that enable collective action ± impacts all of them. In the United States there is a popular adage: ³It¶s not what you know; it¶s whoyou know´ that determines success. A Czech Proverb warns ³Do not protect yourself by a fence, butrather by your friends.´ Today a plethora of evidence supports centuries of intuition regarding thecentrality of social relations. Research shows that a person¶s social relationships and institutionalaffiliations contribute significantly to his or her well-being. Social norms and networks mediate accessto resources and opportunities. In isolated, under-serviced poor communities, these social ties arecritically important in the fight against poverty.

Poor communities are tightly knit and isolated from outside communities --- an accurate census relies onhiring people within poor communities


In poor communities, social capital is key:given the isolated nature of poor communities, tight-knitsocial capital tends to be strong while loose ties to other networks and institutions outside thecommunity tend to be weak;social capital offers an untapped resource, if properly linked and promoted, to help poor households develop other forms of capital;social capital has been critical to help poor households fill the institutional vacuum left by weak states, privatization of enterprises, and conflict

situations.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Sweepstakes CP

1. Perm Do Both

2. Solvency Deficit ± doesn¶t increase participation among hardest to reach groups

El Nasser writer for USA today 8 (Haya El Nasser writer for USA today 5/20/2k8 lexis Census considers rewards for data; Incentives eyed as wayto boost response rate)

A $1 million prize has been suggested, but "something on the scale of a Starbucks coupon would bemore appropriate," says John Hart, Coburn's press secretary. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., amember of a House Census committee, says incentives would "turn the Census into a lottery ticket. ... Idoubt that this is what Thomas Jefferson had in mind." Ed Spar, executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics, opposes giving prizes to fulfill civic obligations. "TheCensus is a national ceremony," he says. "It's for the American people." In 2000, millions of households were counted twice, and there is concern that prizes could encourage more multiple filings.Previous tests have shown that incentives have "minimal impact on increasing the response rate of the

hardest-to-count populations," Buckner of the Census Bureau says.

3. Sweepstakes are morally dubious ineffective and invite errors

NYT newspaper 8

(NYT newspaper June 23 2008 lexis Census Damage Control)Congress, in the meantime, has damage control to do. For starters, lawmakers should pass a censusfunding bill for 2009, pending now in the House, that includes a ban on the use of the bureau's budgetto offer prizes to people for sending in their census forms. It's morally dubious -- and bad public policy-- to bribe people to do their civic duty. Also, research has shown that people who do not fill out their census forms would be unlikely to fill out prize forms, too. Including a sweepstakes with the censuswould invite errors, such as multiple submissions. But all those well-documented negatives have not

stopped the Commerce Department from supporting the idea.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Stigma DA

Social insularity is a key factor in stigmatization

Cattell, PhD, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Royal Free and University College Medica

School, London, µ01

(Vicky Cattell, PhD, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Royal Free and University CollegeMedical School, London, 3-7-01, ³Poor people, poor places, and poor health: the mediating role of socialnetworks and social capital,´ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBF-42HFVJ8-3&_user=4257664&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=974935095&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000022698&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=4257664&md5=1f38eb955f45f8a25de3e95b6be2ea87)

His problems were exacerbated however by his present circumstances. An income and accommodationtotally inadequate for the needs of his family were, he reported, causing him and his wife considerablestress. Several residents were acutely aware that poverty was having a direct and negative influence on

their health, but that µisolation¶, could make it worse. Elsa for example, recently split up from her partner. She has few other contacts and misses him. Her comments illustrate how poverty, personalcircumstances, stress, and health related behaviours can interlink to adversely affect health, includingthe health of children: ³The system is in control of my life. I wait for Tuesdays, then shop, then put somuch by for rent, electricity etc. Any little mistake you make, and you don¶t eat. « I go without tomake sure they [her children] are OK« When I split up, I didn¶t eat properly, my hair started fallingout and I lost weight with the worry«My daughter is a fussy eater. Maybe its because she's unhappy,wondering what's going on, or maybe because I¶m not eating´.

Fatalism, relating to one's own life and health and the way society works in general, and politicalcynicism (which can be an indicator of low social capital) were linked in some cases. Typical

comments included: ³It's a waste of time voting, Labour or Conservative, they are all the same, theyare there for themselves, they don¶t live here, they don¶t know what it is like´. Yet health damagingattributes did not always go hand in hand with either political cynicism or insular attitudes. Anunemployed Cathall resident in the Excluded Group, for example, who took an interest in politics,described his feelings of demoralisation, powerlessness and stigma. The effects of his perceivedsituation were, in themselves, he believed, direct obstacles to his becoming involved in localorganizations,

Ao, director of the census and voting programs for the Asian American Justice Center (AAJC). A

national expert on decennial census and census policy matters, µ08Ao, director of the census and voting programs for the Asian American Justice Center (AAJC). A national

expert on decennial census and census policy matters, 2008, ³Understanding the Importance of Census Participation to Civic Engagement,´ The State of Asian America: Trajectory of Civic and PoliticalEngagement, www.leap.org/docs/PPI%20PDFs/terry.pdf)

Civic engagement is often seen as the key to empowerment for a community. While there is no oneauthoritative definition, civic engagement is generally seen as an activity or activities taken to make adifference and promote the quality of life in a community, through both political and non-political processes. In essence, civic engagement encompasses a broad ideal of individually contributing to a

8/7/2019 Census AFF


8/7/2019 Census AFF





Civic participation can help integrate isolated communities

Uslaner, PhD, Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland at College Park, SeniorResearch Fellow at the Center for American Law and Political Science at the Southwest University of PoliticalScience and Law, Chongqing, China, and Conley PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Florida, µ03

Eric M. Uslaner, PhD, Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland at College Park,Senior Research Fellow at the Center for American Law and Political Science at the Southwest University ofPolitical Science and Law, Chongqing, China, and Richard S. Conley PhD, Associate Professor, Department ofPolitical Science, University of Florida, 7-4-03 ³CIVIC ENGAGEMENT AND PARTICULARIZED TRUSTThe Ties That Bind People to Their Ethnic Communities,´ http://apr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/4/331

We argue that participation in the larger society is important because it helps to build the bridgesacross groups that are essential to solving collective-action problems. Whether people participate inwhat Putnam terms ³bridging associations´ (1993 b, p.39) depends on how they relate to strangers andto their social milieu. If people are wary of strangers and stick to their own group in daily life, they areless likely to partake of the forms of collective action that build social capital. So civic engagement

starts from the ground up with people¶s attitudes toward others and how they relate to them in daily life(cf. Newton, 1997, p.583, for a similar argument). People with strong ties to their own ethnic group arelikely either to withdraw from civic engagement or to participate only with their own kind. People withlooser ties to their in-group are more likely to take an active role in the larger society. Not all socialconnections contribute to social capital as most people have conceived it.

Increasing contact between communities is the most efficient way to reduce stigmatization

Corrigan, Doctor of Psychology, Joint Center for Psychiatric Rehabilitation at Illinois Institute of Technology,and Chicago Consortium for Stigma Research, et al., µ05 (Patrick W. Corrigan, Doctor of Psychology, Joint Center for Psychiatric Rehabilitation at Illinois Institute ofTechnology, and Chicago Consortium for Stigma Research, Nicolas Rüsch, Department of Psychiatry and

Psychotherapy, University of Freiburg, Germany, and Matthias C. Angermeyer, Department of Psychiatry,University of Leipzig, Germany, 4-26-05, ³Mental illness stigma: Concepts, consequences, and initiatives toreduce stigma,´ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VM1-4H4T324-1&_user=4257664&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2005&_rdoc=1&_fmt=full&_orig=search&_cdi=6137&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=974950988&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000022698&_version=1& _urlVersion=0&_userid=4257664&md5=5329074323285422de50c923281069ef#sec5.3)

Contact with persons with mental illness may help to augment the effects of education on reducingstigma. Research has shown that members of the majority who have met minority group members areless likely to stigmatize against members of this minority [6] and [43]. Hence, contact may be animportant strategy to decrease stereotypes and mental health stigma. Research shows that contact both

during undergraduate training [55] and in an experimental situation [34] reduced stigma and improved positive attitudes. In a number of interventions with secondary school students education and contacthave been combined [8], [84] and [94] B. Schulze, M. Richter-Werling, H. Matschinger and M.C.Angermeyer, Crazy? So what! Effects of a school project on students' attitudes towards people withschizophrenia, Acta Psychiatr. Scand. 107 (2003), pp. 142±150. Full Text via CrossRef | View Recordin Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (56)[94]. Results suggest that contact may be the more efficacious partof the intervention. Particularly interesting in this respect is an Austrian study that compared educationwithout contact with a combination of both education and contact. A positive change of students¶

8/7/2019 Census AFF





attitudes was observed only when a consumer was involved in the intervention (contact and education[75]).

There are a number of factors that create an advantageous environment for interpersonal contact andstigma reduction. This includes equal status among participants, a cooperative interaction as well as

institutional support for the contact initiative. For example, a school programme will be moresuccessful if its efforts find support from the principal and if it allows for informal discussions betweenconsumer and students instead of a consumer lecturing in front of a silent audience of students.Cooperation during work also offers a good opportunity to achieve equal status of consumers andmembers of the majority if both participate in the same task.

Also of importance are minority members who mildly disconfirm the stereotype towards this minority.Contact seems to be effective by changing stigmatizing knowledge structures. After contact, a person'snatural stereotype of a minority group may be replaced by another, more positive image of that group[89]. For instance, after working with a person of equal status and with mental illness at one's new job,one may discard stereotypes about this person being dangerous or incompetent. The strength of the

effect of change in stereotypes depends on the level of disconfirmation by the contacted minoritygroup member. Contact experiences with persons who do not at all resemble stereotypes about theminority group are unlikely to have a major effect on those stereotypes [56]. For example, contactduring work with a woman with mental illness who is also highly attractive and successful in her professional and personal life may not only fail to diminish stigma but even lead to a boomerang effect[57]. The information about this woman may not be used to disconfirm the stereotype about theminority of people with mental illness, but the woman will likely be subtyped as unusual. She mayeven be reclassified as belonging to 'us' instead of 'them' [42]. This kind of subtyping can in factcorroborate stigma according to the saying that the exception proves the rule.

To sum up our overview of different methods to reduce stigma, contact combined with education

seems to be the most promising avenue. To end on a more cautious note, though, one has to bear inmind a limitation of every anti-stigma initiative that focuses on a specific behavior of a certain group,e.g. local employers and their not offering jobs to persons with mental illness. On the one hand, prejudices and behavior of one group are an appealing target, because it reduces the complexity of thestigma-phenomenon and focuses on a target that matters [16]. On the other hand, the areas of individual discrimination, structural discrimination and self-stigma lead to innumerable mechanisms of stigmatization. If one discriminating mechanism is blocked, a powerful stigmatizing group can alwayscreate new ways to discriminate [63]. If for example persons with mental illness are protected by newwork-legislation, employers can find new, informal ways not to employ or to fire them. Therefore, tosubstantially reduce discriminating behavior, stigma-related attitudes of power groups have to befundamentally changed.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-on ± Constitutionality

Not counting minorities violates the constitution

Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09(Afton Branche fellow at Drum Major Institute for Public Policy 7/23/09

http://www.drummajorinstitute.org/library/report.php?ID=98)Excluding undocumented immigrants from the Census would be unconstitutional. Opponents of a fullcensus count implicitly acknowledged this point when they called for H.J. Res. 6, a constitutionalamendment seeking to limit census apportionment to U.S. citizens. Representative Candice Miller (R-MI), the bill¶s main sponsor, claimed that it would correct a ³technical error´ by replacing the word³persons´ with ³citizens.´38 But the amendment would have been a substantive change, not a technicalmodification. When the Constitution was originally drafted, the United States had a number of residents that could not exercise the full rights of citizenship (namely slaves and indentured servants),yet they were purposely included in population totals used for apportionment. When the FourteenthAmendment granted citizenship rights to these groups, it upheld the principle of representation basedon persons, including noncitizens. 39 As historian William E. Nelson points out, when the Joint

Committee on Reconstruction debated over the Amendment¶s language, they felt it necessary ³todistinguish between the rights of all persons and the special rights of citizens.´40 The choice to countall ³persons´ for apportionment totals is no accident, it is rather the only method to ensure that statesreceive political representation based on a complete count of their residents, citizens or otherwise.

Undermining the Constitution causes extinction Henkin 88. (Columbia, 1988, (Atlantic Comm Qtly, Spring)

Lawyers, even constitutional lawyers, argue "technically," with references to text and principles of construction, drawing lines, and insisting on sharp distinctions. Such discussion sometimes seemsludicrous when it addresses issues of life and death and Armaggedon. But behind the words of theConstitution and the technicalities of constitutional construction lie the basic values of the United

States±limited government even at the cost of inefficiency; safeguards against autarchy and oligarchy;democratic valuesrepresented differently in the presidency and in Congress, as well as in the intelligent participation and consent of the governed. In the nuclear age the technicalities of constitutionalismand of constitutional jurisprudence safeguard also the values and concerns of civilized peoplecommitted to human survival

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-on ± Racism

Census Data enforces anti-discrimination laws and predatory lending laws

Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute 7 (Andrew Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute July 17 2007 Preparations for 2010: Is the Census Bureau

Ready for the Job Ahead?)Second, censusdata provide key benchmarks for federal enforcement of civil rights andantidiscrimination laws and court decisions. Small area census data on the occupational distribution bygender, race, and ethnicity are used by federal legal and regulatory agencies to enforce laws againstdiscrimination in the workplace.7 Population estimates and ACS data on race, Hispanic ethnicity, andlanguage spoken at home are used to enforce the Voting Rights Act. Housing-related ACS data areused in the regulation of lending practices and homeowner insurance procedures under the Fair Housing Act.

In a world of racism, all the negative's impacts are inevitable and increasingly likely. Only dismantling

the walls of racism and replacing them with anti-racist institutions can humanity survive.

Barndt, educator, trainer and organizer in the field of racial justice, 2007 (Joseph, Understanding & Dismantling Racism: the twenty-first century challenge to white America, p.219-220)

To study racism is to study walls. In every chapter of this book, we have looked at barriers and fences,restraints and limitations, ghettos and prisons, bars and curtains. We have examined a prison of racismthat confines us all²people of color and white people alike. Victimizers as well as victims are inshackles. The walls of the prison forcibly separate communities of color and white communities fromeach other, as well as divide communities of color from each other. In our separate prisons we are allshut off from each other. The constraints imposed on people of color by subservience, powerlessness,and poverty are inhuman and unjust; but the effects of uncontrolled power, privilege, and greed that arethe marks of our white prison inevitably destroy white people as well. To dismantle racism is to tear

down walls. The walls of racism can be dismantled. We are not condemned to an inexorable fate, butare offered the vision and the possibility of freedom. Brick by brick, stone by stone, the prison of individual, institutional, and cultural racism can be destroyed. It is an organizing task that can beaccomplished. You and I are urgently called to join the efforts of those who know it is time to tear down, once and for all the walls of racism. The walls of racism must be dismantled. Facing up to theserealities offers new possibilities, but refusing to face them threatens yet greater dangers. The results of centuries of national and worldwide colonial conquest and racial domination, of military buildups andviolent aggression, of over-consumption and environmental destruction may be reaching a point of noreturn. The moment of self-destruction seems to be drawing ever more near, nationally and globally. Asmall and predominantly white minority of the global population derives its power and privilege fromthe sufferings of the vast majority of peoples of color. For the sake of the world and ourselves, we dare

not allow it to continue. Dismantling racism also means building something new it means building anantiracist society. The bricks that were used to build the walls of the prison must now be used for a better purpose. Just as we must tear down the wall brick by brick, so also we must build new structuresof power and justice. Although we still need many more reminders that we cannot build a multiracialand multicultural society without tearing down the walls of racism, this negative reminder must beturned around and stated in reverse: we cannot tear down the walls without building new antiraciststructures of power in our institutions and communities. Transforming and building anti-racistinstitutions is the path to a racism-free society.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Add-on ± Poverty

You name it, it uses census data

Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute 7 (Andrew Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute July 17 2007 Preparations for 2010: Is the Census Bureau

Ready for the Job Ahead?)Third, census data play an important role informing the design, implementation, and evaluation of avariety of federal efforts other than financial assistance and regulation. For example, the data are usedwith regard to programs and policies concerned with adult education, small business development,veteran and senior citizen health, affordable housing, overcrowded housing, transportation planning,women in the labor force, farm workers, immigrants, disabled students, and groundwater contamination. With the release of the 2008 ACS data, programs that promote increased healthinsurance coverage and seek to influence marriage- and divorce-related behavior (for example, TANF)will benefit as well. In particular, census data are used to develop estimates and projections for avariety of federal programs. Examples of estimates include the measures of personal income at themetropolitan and county levels (Bureau of Economic Analysis), adult literacy rates (Department of

Education), local travel patterns (Federal Highway Administration), the number of children in single- parent homes (Department of Health and Human Services), and residential and motor vehicle energyconsumption (Department of Energy). Examples of forecasts include the number of people who will beeligible for Social Security and Medicare, the number of children who will need adoptive homes under the Child Welfare Act, and future tax revenue (Department of Treasury). In addition, census data areused by OMB to reset the boundaries of the nation¶s metropolitan areas. The census also provides the basis for giving Members of Congress detailed, up-to-date profiles of constituent population throughthe ACS.8 State and local governments heavily rely on census data to make real, on-the-groundinvestment decisions across all domains of government. For example, these governments use censusdata to assess the needs for school buildings, affordable housing, workforce training, and access tohealth care.

Every major Social Service and State Block Grant relies on the census data

Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute 7 (Andrew Reamer fellow at the Brookings Institute July 17 2007 Preparations for 2010: Is the Census BureauReady for the Job Ahead?)Each question in the decennial census and the ACS is crafted to fulfill a set of federal purposes.4 The federalgovernment relies on census data in three ways. First, through use in eligibility criteria and allocation formulasestablished by law, regulation, and directive, census data guide the distribution of hundreds of billions in federalfinancial assistance to state and local governments, nonprofits, businesses, and individuals. I estimate that, inFY2004, the distribution of at least $300 billion in federal funds from 81 grant programs (65 percent of $460 billion in total grants) relied on numbers derived from the decennial census.5 The largest programs (totaling

$264 billion) include Medicaid, the Federal-Aid Highway Program, Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers, Title IEducation Grants, Head Start, the State Children¶s Health Insurance Program, Federal Transit Formula Grantsand the Community Development Block Grant Program.6 The appropriate and fair distribution of federalfunds²and the return of precious tax dollars to states and communities²depend upon an accurate census.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





CSBG helps alleviate poverty

Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007,

(Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007, ³Office of Community Services,´http://www.arkansas.gov/dhs/dco/ocs/)

The Community Services Block Grant Program helps low-income persons to become moreindependent by:Providing a range of services through local community action agencies to enable persons of low-income to become more employable, better educated, better trained to handle their finances, improvetheir housing, make use of social and human services available to serve them, and to get involved inimproving their community.Providing funds to enable low-income persons to get involved in economic development activities.Providing emergency assistance to low-income individuals to recover from non-insured disasters.Providing funds to develop innovative approaches at the state and local levels to meet nutritional needsof low-income individuals.

ESGP helps alleviate poverty

Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007,(Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007, ³Office of Community Services,´http://www.arkansas.gov/dhs/dco/ocs/)

The Emergency Shelter Grants Program assists local communities in helping to improve the quality of life for the homeless by:Providing grants for minor renovations, rehabilitation, or conversion of buildings for use as anemergency shelter for the homeless.

Providing funds for payment of certain operating and maintenance expenses.Providing funds for essential social services expenses inconnection with the operation of emergencyshelters for the homeless.Providing Emergency Shelter funds to be used for homeless prevention efforts.A special enumeration survey was conducted and on any given night, the estimated homeless count inthe State of Arkansas is 7,400.



(Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007, ³Office of Community Services,´

http://www.arkansas.gov/dhs/dco/ocs/)

The Home Energy Assistance Program helps low-income house-holds with home energy costs by:Administering the Regular Assistance and Crisis Intervention Programs. Each program providesfinancial assistance to eligible households with a one-time per year payment to the household's energysupplier or, under certain circumstances, to the applicant. The Crisis Intervention Program only provides assistance to eligible households facing energy-related emergencies.

8/7/2019 Census AFF







(Arkansas Department of Human Services, 2006-2007, ³Office of Community Services,´http://www.arkansas.gov/dhs/dco/ocs/)

The Weatherization Assistance Program provides funds to conserve energy in the homes of low-income people, with emphasis on elderly, handicapped, and families with children. An automatedenergy audit, National Energy Audit (NEAT), is used to determine the most cost effective measures onsingle frame houses. The Mobile Home Energy Audit (MHEA) is used to determine the most effectivemeasures to be installed on mobile homes:

Measures installed on single framed houses and multi-family units include: Replace broken windows.Caulk and weatherstrip doors and windows.Insulating uninsulated ceilings, walls and floors.Installing storm windows, thermostats and furnace tune-ups.

Health and safety measures that are required prior to weatherizing the house.Measures installed on mobile homes:Replace broken windows.Caulk and weatherstrip doors and windowsInstall thermostats and furnace tune-ups.Health and safety measures that are required prior to weatherizing

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Fiscal Discipline Disad

1. Congress vote shows no fiscal discipline now.

Wall Street Journal, 7/22 (Wall Street Journal, 7/22/09, ³Grounding the F-22´)

But instead we were treated to the familiar sight of 535 procurers in chief out to save their pet projects.Senator Saxby Chambliss, a Republican from Georgia, got an amendment into the budget to buy sevenmore F-22s and keep the Marietta, Ga. production line open. Faced with a veto threat from the WhiteHouse, the Senate removed the spending line in a cross-party vote assisted by Republican JohnMcCain.One thing for sure is that the F-22 vote isn't a sign of new fiscal discipline.Congress continues to bustthe budget on everything except defense, most especially with its push for government health care for all. Meanwhile, the Air Force will have to live with 187 F-22s when the next adversary arrives.

2. U.S. credit rating will remain strong despite rising national debt.

RTE Business, non-profit Public Service Broadcaster, 5/27

(RTE Business, non-profit Public Service Broadcaster, 5/27/09http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0527/moodys.html)

Credit rating agency Moody's said today that it saw no need to lower thetriple-A sovereign rating of the US, despite the global economic crisis battering the world's largest economy.'Even with a significant deterioration in the US government's debt position, its rating has a stableoutlook and demonstrates the attributes of a AAA sovereign,' Moody's Investors Service said in itsannual report on the US.The agency cited the country's 'diverse and resilient' economy, strong government institutions, high per capita income, and a central position in the global economy, as well as the dollar's role as the world'sreserve currency, among reasons to maintain the top rating.'Moody's expects that, because of these factors, US economic strength will emerge after the crisis

without major impairment,' it said. 'The global role of the US currency also contributes to the ability of the economy and government finances to rebound,' it added.Speculation had swirled that the US may be headed for a credit downgrade after ratings agencyStandard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on Britain to 'negative' because of soaring public debt,raising the possibility the European financial powerhouse could lose its triple-A rating.The speculation hit financial markets and prompted US President Barack Obama's administration onFriday to downplay the risk for the US.Moody's acknowledged the sharp increase in the US debt load after the government poured hundredsof billions of dollars into an attempt to stabilise the financial system and approved a $787 billionstimulus package earlier this year.A sharp recession, which began in December 2007, also has weighed on government finances, it noted.

'The result has been much higher debt ratios that may persist for some years to come. While theseratios are deteriorating in the US, they are also doing so in most other advanced economies due to theglobal recession,' Moody's said.'Furthermore, the level of debt is less important than the government's balance sheet flexibility, whichMoody's believes is still high in the case of the US,' it added.Among other factors supporting the gold-plated rating were strong productivity and a flexible labour market. A higher rate of population growth until 2025 compared with other advanced economies alsowas expected to contribute to output growth and increased government revenues.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





3. Funding going to happen anyway ± plan just changes who¶s hired, so no massive spending.

4. Extend Winslow, 7/23 ± plan solves for economy.

5. More deficit spending inevitable, so impacts inevitable ± Expensive health care bill will pass.AP) Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Democrats have the votes to pass health care legislation in the House,even though negotiations are under way to make changes in the bill to satisfy some of its critics.

The House's top Democrat declined to say when she will call for the vote on President Barack Obama'stop domestic priority. She says she wants to see what the Senate's plans are.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Politics Disad

Census is controversial - sampling

The Week, 7/24 (The Week, 7/24/09, http://www.theweek.com/article/index/98607/Census_Bureau_The_counting_of_America)

The new census director, veteran University of Michigan survey researcher Robert Groves, has arguedfor years that the government has persistently undercounted millions of minorities who typically votefor Democrats, and that statistical sampling will provide a more accurate count. Republicans blockedhis confirmation until this week, even though Groves promised that he would not push for sampling in2010. Still, Republicans remain suspicious, and it¶s likely that the partisan argument over samplingwill resume at a later date. ³What¶s not political about the census?´ says Harvard government professor D. Sunshine Hillygus. ³It¶s the basis of the two most important things in politics: money andrepresentation.´

Census creates partisan divides ± undercountingMcDonough, newspaper reporter, 2/19

(Cara McDonough, newspaper reporter, magazine writer, radio show host, B.A. in English, minor in philosophy, Boston University, 2/19/09,http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/Americas/2009/feb/The-Politics-of-the-2010-Census-Highlighted-by-Gregg-Withdrawal.html)

Although it ³may sound surprising to those who don't consider the decennial headcount a red-hot political matter,´ writes Time magazine, the census is at the center of a power struggle betweenDemocrats and Republicans, and this year is particularly important: The 2010 census is the first in 30years to occur under a Democratic administration. The problem began with Gregg¶s nomination. SomeDemocrats and advocates for minority groups worried that he would not support efforts, like sampling,that could result in more accurate counts.The White House sought to calm those fears by issu[ed] astatement saying that the census director would "work closely with White House senior management."Uproar ensued. The GOP immediately spoke out about the ³politicization of the census´ and the White

House issued a clarification that "this administration has not proposed removing the Census from theDepartment of Commerce." Why all the concern? To put in simply, according to Time, when it comesto the census, Republicans prefer to err on the side of undercounting and Democrats prefer to err on theside of overcounting. The results can have a major impact on policy, depending on demographics andlocalities.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Politics 2AC ± Bipartisan

Census now uncontroversial ± Groves nomination proves

Associated Press, 8/13 (Associated Press, 8/13/09, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/us/politics/14census.html?_r=1)

The Senate on Monday approved the nomination of Robert Groves, a veteran survey researcher at theUniversity of Michigan as director of the United States Census Bureau, ending weeks of oppositionfrom two Republicans over Mr. Groves¶s role in next year¶s high-stakes count.More than a dozen states stand to gain or lose seats in the House after 2010.To advance the stalled nomination, the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, used a procedural motion that required 60 votes in the 100-seat Senate. After the motion passed 76 to 15,senators quickly confirmed Mr. Groves.Mr. Groves, 60, was easily approved by the Homeland Security Committee in May after he ruled outthe use of statistical adjustments in 2010 to make up for undercounted populations.

Extend Winslow 7/23 ± Plan is popular with traditional opponents ± they concede that an accurate count

is necessary to ensure adequate fed funding.

Impacts empirically denied ± Sotomayor controversy proves.Lewis, Staff Writer, 7/14(Neil A. Lewis, Staff Writer, New York Times, 7/14/09,http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/2009/7/14/a_partisan_split_in_sotomayor_hearings.htm)

The Senate Judiciary Committee quickly split along partisan lines Monday as it opened a weeklongdebate on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the United States Supreme Court, withDemocrats and Republicans presenting starkly different views of the candidate and the confirmation process.Republicans portrayed Judge Sotomayor, a 55-year-old New York native of Puerto Rican descent, as a

poor choice who they said hasshown through her public statements that she could not be an impartial justice.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Military Recruitment Disad

1. Low-income people underrepresented in military.Watkins and Sherk , Ph.D, Policy Analyst in Empirical Studies and Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy, 08 (Shanea Watkins and James Sherk, Policy Analyst in Empirical Studies and Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy,8/21/08, http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/cda08-05.cfm)

U.S. military service disproportionately attracts enlisted personnel and officerswho do not come fromdisadvantaged backgrounds. Previous Heritage Foundation research demonstrated that the quality of enlisted troops has increased since the start of the Iraq war. This report demonstrates that the same istrue of the officer corps.Members of the all-volunteer military are significantly more likely to come from high-incomeneighborhoods than from low-income neighborhoods.Only 11 percent of enlisted recruits in 2007 camefrom the poorest one-fifth (quintile) of neighborhoods, while 25 percent came from the wealthiestquintile. These trends are even more pronounced in the Army Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program, in which 40 percent of enrollees come from the wealthiest neighborhoods²a number thathas increased substantially over the past four years.

2. The plan hires low-income people. DA non-unique.

3. Members of military serve the country out of patriotism, not for social services or lack of other career

opportunities.Watkins and Sherk , Ph.D, Policy Analyst in Empirical Studies and Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy, 08 (Shanea Watkins and James Sherk, Policy Analyst in Empirical Studies and Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy,8/21/08, http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/cda08-05.cfm)The facts do not support the belief that many American soldiers volunteer because society offers them few otheropportunities.The average enlisted person or officer could have had lucrative career opportunities in the privatesector. Those who argue that American soldiers risk their lives because they have no other opportunities belittle

the personal sacrifices of those who serve out of love for their country.

4. Recruitment shortfalls in past haven¶t destroyed heg

5. Extend Winslow, 7/23 - Plan solves for economy ± more accurate census count key to economic

recovery.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Immigration Disad

1. Immigration rates are high despite the recession

McCombs 4-19-09 - Arizona Daily Star reporter [Brady, "And still, Mexicans come" http://www.azstarnet.com/business/289318]

Tiburcio Cuba Diaz has heard all about the dismal state of the U.S. economy. "Everyone says the crisisis very bad," Cuba, 34, a father of five from Puebla, Mexico, said in Spanish, "that they are firing people and there is very little work." But Cuba is still determined to cross the border illegally and makeit to New York, where relatives say he'll be able to find work at a restaurant. His decision boils downto simple economics. "If the economy is bad in the United States, it's worse in Mexico," said Cuba,who was in Nogales last week after being caught by the Border Patrol on his first try. "The economy inthe U.S. is always better." A host of indicators show that the flow of illegal immigration across theSouthwest border has slowed to decade-low levels, but there are still thousands trying to cross eachday, especially in Arizona. Not even the worst U.S. recession in a quarter century has brought the flowof illegal immigrants to a halt. The pull of jobs in the United States may have weakened, but the pushfrom Latin America remains fairly strong. "In Mexico, they are always in crisis," said Faustino

Gonzalez, who provides assistance at the Aid Center for Deported Migrants in Nogales, which provides food and medical services to illegal immigrants. "The Mexican never loses hope that crossingover to live in the United States will work out." Whether it's deported illegal immigrants trying to get back to their families in the U.S. or people leaving countries with economies even worse than ours,there are still enough people to keep coyotes, or guides, in business. U.S. Border Patrol apprehensionsalong the Southwest border and in the Tucson Sector have dropped by 37 percent in the last two years, but agents in the 262-mile Tucson Sector still made more than 1,000 apprehensions a day in March.Agents catch one in three border crossers, according to research from Wayne Cornelius, director of theCenter for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California-San Diego. If that's true, asmany as 3,000 people cross through the sector daily. "Those folks don't have any alternative,"Cornelius said. "They have to take the risks of migration even under these conditions because they

have no economic options in their hometowns." Two migrant aid centers in Nogales, Sonora, have seenfewer than half as many deported migrants this year, but they are still providing food and medical careto as many as 400 people daily. "The American dream is very powerful," said Ramiro QuinteroChavez, of the Sonoran State Commission for the Care of Migrants. "The illusion is still there." Withmore than 13 million people in the United States jobless and the 8.5 percent unemployment rate higher than any other time in a quarter century, why would anybody spend thousands of dollars, leave their families behind and risk their lives when such a dismal economy awaits them? It is a complex answer best explained by four key factors: Global recession The recession is trickling down to other parts of the world, especially Mexico, which accounts for more than 92 percent of people apprehended by theBorder Patrol on the Southwest border. "This recession is not just affecting the U.S.; it's a globalrecession," said Judith Gans, immigration-policy program manager at the University of Arizona's Udall

Center for Studies in Public Policy. "It's affecting people in sending countries as well."TheInternational Monetary Fund and World Bank both expect the Mexican economic growth to slowto less than 2 percent this year from nearly 5 percent in 2006. The value of the Mexican peso plummeted by 30 percent from August 2008 to March of this year before regaining some value in the past month and a half. The same 100 pesos that would have been worth $10 in August 2008 are nowworth $7.60. Most of the rest of the world began feeling the trickle-down effects of the U.S. recessionaround September 2008, said Demetrios Papademetriou, president of the Migration Policy Institute, aWashington-based think tank that advocates for comprehensive immigration changes. The National

8/7/2019 Census AFF





Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the U.S. recession began in December 2007. "If the No. 1consumer in the world no longer consumes, everyone that relies in one way or the other on the UnitedStates will be affected," Papademetriou said. "If American banks don't lend, that means any economicactivity around the world that needs money in order for that to move forward is also going to stall."What does that mean for illegal immigration? As long as the gap between pay in Mexico and the

United States remains large, people will continue to come. Even after taking a cut in hours recently atthe thrift store she had worked at for six years in Chicago, illegal immigrant Carla Contreras is stilltrying to return to the U.S. after going home to Hidalgo, Mexico, for a family emergency. "Part-timework in Chicago is better than no work in Hidalgo," Contreras said in Spanish. Family reunificationMany illegal border crossers are trying to reunite with family already in the United States.The number of illegal immigrants deported from the interior of the country by Immigration and CustomsEnforcement has increased every year since 2004, including a 24 percent increase in the past twoyears. Nearly 73,000 people were deported from Arizona in fiscal 2008, compared with 44,376 theyear before. A recent study from the Pew Hispanic Center found that 73 percent of the children of illegal immigrants were born in this country and are U.S. citizens.

2. Immigrants increase jobs.Bandyk, Junior Reporter, 6/30 (Matt Bandyk, Junior Reporter, U.S. News and World Report, 6/30/09, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2009/06/30/more-immigrants-more-jobs.html)

But if anything, greater immigration becomes more necessary when there's more unemployment.This argument assumes that there are a limited amount of jobs out there, and so each additional personlooking for a job means one less job for someone else. It's funny that this argument is coming from aGOP aide, because his or her own party seems to reject this zero-sum logic in every case exceptimmigration. Look at the GOP response to the climate change bill just passed by the House: they arguethat it will kill jobs by raising costs to businesses. But immigration restrictions also increase costs to businesses by reducing the supply of labor, thus making it more expensive. So why is it "incredulous"

that anyone could have a problem with this job-killer?The evidence is actually pretty strong that immigrants create jobs--they don't steal them. The averageentrepreneur in this country is an immigrant.Educated immigrants are more likely to create startup businesses than native-born Americans.If we want to bring down this high unemployment rate, we can't shut out the people who are going tocreate new jobs. Allowing more H-1B visas and easing the process by which temporary workers can become citizens would expand the pool of jobs in the country.

3. Extend Winslow, 7/23 ± Illegal immigrants should still be counted to ensure adequate fed funding.

4. Extend Lowenthal, 6/4 - Plan solves for economy.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Block Grant Specific Disad

1. Social Services Block Grant and Community Services Block Grant programs are ineffective now

because they are underfunded --- your evidence assumes a lack of funding that the plan corrects for.

NYSOFA, 4-23-09

(NEW YORK STATE OFFICE FOR THE AGING, 4-23-09, ³FEDERAL FUNDING AND POLICYPRIORITIES FOR THE FIRST SESSION OF THE 111TH CONGRESS (2009),´www.aging.ny.gov/NYSOFA/.../FundingPriorities111Congress.rtf)

SOCIAL SERVICES BLOCK GRANT (SSBG) ± Restore the SSBG to its previously authorizedfunding level of $2.8 billion and continue to provide flexibility by allowing states to transfer up to 10 percent for their Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) funds to SSBG. In addition toservices for families and children, SSBG funds are directed to home-based services for older adults,such as meals on wheels, adult day care and domestic violence counseling. SSBG also funds adult protective services and adult foster care. SSBG offers states the means to fill gaps in critical social

services. Funding for the SSBG has been cut by over $1 billion and the authorization level has beenreduced twice over the last 13 years. Even with efficient use of SSBG funds and an increasing number of states transferring the maximum allowance of TANF funds, communities still have older adults onwaiting lists for many essential supportive services.

COMMUNITY SERVICES BLOCK GRANTS (CSBG) ± Funding levels for the Community ServicesBlock Grants should be restored to at least the 2005 levels of $4 billion in order to increase affordablehousing opportunities. CSBG also funds a range of supportive services to lessen poverty among older adults and to help them live independently in their communities. These flexible dollars build onOAA¶s core programs to help provide affordable housing, transportation services and/or nutritionassistance.

2. Child Care Development Block Grant is also underfunded

National Conference of State Legislatures, µ09(National Conference of State Legislatures, ¶09, ³2008-2009 Policies for the Jurisdiction of the Human Servicesand Welfare Committee,´ http://www.ncsl.org/Default.aspx?TabID=773&tabs=855,25,669)

The passage of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) createdopportunities and challenges for state child care programs. The National Conference of StateLegislatures strongly supported PRWORA's expansion of the Child Care Development Block Grant(CCDBG), which provides states with new flexible funding for child care. The demand for child care

has grown as increasing numbers of welfare recipients move from welfare to work. We believe that thedemand will continue to grow due to increasing federal work participation rates in the TANF programand our continued success with welfare reform.Congress reauthorized the TANF program in the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, making policychanges that mean that more TANF parents will be working more hours. States need additionalresources, above the appreciated increase in the child care block grant, in order to meet the newfederal requirements. If additional dollars are not forthcoming, states will struggle with providingchild care to TANF families while continuing to provide child care for low-income working families

8/7/2019 Census AFF





that have left the TANF program and are on the road to self-sufficiency.State legislators believe that federal child care funding should be consolidated into a more coherentfunding stream. State legislators continue to examine the effects of their child care policies and usetheir legislative authority to appropriate CCDBG funds. States are spending more money than ever to provide for the increasing demandfor child care. About half of the states appropriate more money than

is required for federal matching funds. In addition to state's own funding and the federal Child CareDevelopment Block Grant Fund, states are increasingly using a significant portion of TemporaryAssistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant funding to serve the needs of those on publicassistance, those who have left public assistance and the working poor who may not have ever receivedcash assistance.

3. SSBG funding must increase to allow for new programs

National Conference of State Legislatures, µ09(National Conference of State Legislatures, ¶09, ³2008-2009 Policies for the Jurisdiction of the Human Servicesand Welfare Committee,´ http://www.ncsl.org/Default.aspx?TabID=773&tabs=855,25,669)

State legislators strongly support the Social Services Block Grant. Many states use the SSBG to provide child care to low-income families who do not meet the criteria of TANF or the CCDBG. Statesalso use the SSBG for related services, including child care for children with special needs and elder care. NCSL supports increased funding for the Social Services Block Grant. NCSL does not support aspecific child care set-aside in the Social Services Block Grant. The Social Services Block Grant mustcontinue to be funded as new child care programs are phased-in; NCSL believes that the federal government must provide technical assistance to states to improve thecoordination and financing of child care programs.

4. SSBG is underfunded

National Conference of State Legislatures, µ09

(National Conference of State Legislatures, ¶09, ³2008-2009 Policies for the Jurisdiction of the Human Servicesand Welfare Committee,´ http://www.ncsl.org/Default.aspx?TabID=773&tabs=855,25,669)

The Social Services Block Grant, authorized under Title XX of the Social Security Act, consolidatedspending for state social services. States may use these monies to fund child welfare services,including protective services. The flexibility of SSBG funds, distributed at state discretion, is critical tothe success of these programs. NCSL opposes proposals to earmark this block grant for child welfareservices. Earmarking undercuts the commitment to the diverse local needs of the elderly, handicapped

and children, undermines state authority, and creates the potential for further carving up a program intoincremental components that could limit benefits. Unfortunately, Title XX has fared poorly in thefederal budget environment. For several years, Congress has abandoned its commitment to the currentauthorized level of $2.3 billion as agreed to in the 1996 welfare law. NCSL strongly opposes attemptsto cut the SSBG, and urges Congress to increase funding for this critical program. NCSL strongly supports the ability of states to transfer Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Block Grant (TANF) funds to Title XX at the 10% level agreed to in the 1996 welfare law.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





5. CCDF and TANF are good, but underfunded and ineffective --- our aff solves all of your ³welfare

reform bad´ arguments

Mississippi Low-Income Child Care Initiative, 2007Mississippi Low-Income Child Care Initiative, 2007, ³Need to Apply $30 MillionIn Unspent TANF Funds

forChild Care for the Working Poor,´ http://www.mschildcare.org/unspenttanf.php

SummaryAssistance with child care has been identified as the single most important factor in helping low-income families successfully leave welfare and maintain jobs. Adequate child care is also an importantfactor in economic development and job growth. Despite these benefits, MS is forfeiting millions of available federal funds for child care.In addition, DHS has added new barriers for subsidy eligibility that are not part of federal regulations.In so doing, DHS claims that there is no need for additional subsidized child care, when in fact, manyfamilies are in dire need of assistance and would be eligible under federal guidelines. MLICCI hasconducted a survey of child care workers across the state demonstrating that the need is far greater than

DHS asserts.CCDF and TANF: Multiple Returns on InvestmentLow-wage workers with young children need help paying for child care to stay employed. Currently,there are two federal work-support programs designed to help parents successfully leave welfare for work by subsidizing child care costs: CCDF (Child Care and Development Fund) and TANF(Temporary Assistance to Needy Families). TOP »These programs have proven to be excellent investments. Child care assistance is the single mostimportant factor in moving a single working mother toward self-sufficiency. According to the NationalWomen's Law Center, "studies demonstrate that child care assistance can make a real difference infamilies' ability to work and succeed. An analysis of data from the 1990's shows that single motherswho receive child care assistance are 40% more likely to remain employed after two years than those

who do not receive assistance in paying for child care. Former welfare recipients with young childrenare 82% more likely to be employed after two years if they receive child care assistance.The 2003 report, "The Self-Sufficiency Standard for Mississippi," demonstrated that child caresubsidies can reduce child care costs for a single mother with two pre-school children from $658 per month to $132 per month.In addition to benefiting the state's most vulnerable families, investment in affordable child care is animportant component of economic development. Child care creates jobs, enables citizens to work,generates tax dollars, and contributes to local economies. According to the MS Economic Council,employers from throughout the state report that reliable child care is essential to recruiting andretaining employees. It reduces employee absenteeism and turnover, and increases worker productivity. TOP »

TANF Funds Unspent While Needy Families WaitDespite documented success, CCDF and TANF are sorely under-funded and only serve a fraction of income-eligible children. To make matters worse, the MS Department of Human Services has opted toleave over $30 million in TANF funds unspent rather than use them to address low-income families'need for child care.DHS asserts that child care is fully funded, there is now no waiting list for child care certificates, andthat unused TANF funds should go elsewhere. However, a survey of child care providers conducted bythe Mississippi Low Income Child Care Initiative (MLICCI) tells a very different story. "

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Hiring isn¶t a social service

1. We meet: Hiring falls under employment support, which is a social service

Lynn, Professor public management, University Chicago, 01 (Laurence E. Lynn, Jr ., Professor public management, Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy

Studies, University of Chicago, 4/28/01, http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/About/publications/working- papers/pdf/wp_01_13.pdf)

Although the government role in social services provision had been evolving for over a century at thestate level, the changes induced by federal policy over the past three decades is more than incremental.³Publicly supported human services in America are undergoing a massive transformation,´ say Feltyand Jones (1998). ³In the next decade they will experience fundamental changes in financing(managed care), drastic consolidation, and entrance into the field by multibillion dollar nationalcompanies´ (p. 207). Though this view is perhaps overstated, new and complex patterns of interdependence and new organizational forms are restructuring a sector comprising over 66,000 public, private, and for-profit social service organizations. In one way or another, all fields of socialservice are affected: income and employment support, medical and mental health care, education and

training, and housing and in personal social services concerned with child and family welfare, the well- being of older people, domestic violence, substance abuse, vocational rehabilitation, refugeeassistance, emergency food assistance, and others (Kamerman and Kahn 1976, Salamon 1999).

2. Counter-interp: A social service is simply any assistance promoting the betterment of society

Merriam-Webster Dictionary, published dictionary company, 09 (Merriam-Webster Dictionary, published dictionary company, 09, http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/social+service)

Main Entry:social service

Function: noun Date:1851

:an activity designed to promote social well-being ; specifically: organized philanthropic assistance (asof the disabled or disadvantaged)

3. We meet counter-interp because hiring the poor will help their social well-being

4. Standards:

a) Lit checks abuse: The negative was well-prepared with this extremely case-specific topicality inanticipation that we would run this case, which leads to the next standard.

b) Predictability: We control the better link to predictability --- title XX has 1500 programs and a categorycalled ³other´ --- totally unpredictable in a way that including jobs isn¶t

c) Education: Having a wider range of cases provides better education for students involved becausewe learn more about more ideas, and being that this topicality really only applies to this one aff, thereis no impact to any limits debate.

8/7/2019 Census AFF


8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: Subsets

1. We meet: we increase social services in the U.S.

2. We meet: we effectually increase social services for ALL persons living in poverty in the U.S.

3. Counter-interp: In means within the bounds, or area of

American Heritage 64th

edition, concise dictionaryIn: a. Within thelimits, bounds or area of : was hit in the face; born in the spring; a chair in the garden

4. We meet counter-interp because the plan increases social services within the boundaries of the U.S.

5. Standards

a) Reasonability: To implement a plan that affects every single person living in poverty is extremelyunreasonable, as no plan is that extensive. There is no reason why we cannot focus on specific groups, as iallows for better aff solvency.

b) Overlimits: If the aff had to run a plan that affects every person living in poverty, there would be virtually noaff ground.

c) Education: We increase the education about the topic by causing more research without abusing ground orlimits, which leads to higher education levels and better debate.

d) Common usage: The word, ³in,´ is widely used, and using common knowledge, ³in´ is used more to mean³within the boundaries of´ rather than throughout. Why don¶t you check next time you use the word in normalconversation?

6. Topicality is not a voting issuea) No in-round abuse has been proven. b) We fit under the resolution and both interpretations, so we are topical.c) Education and predictability, which is key in debate. We only learn if we debate stock issues, not

topicality. We waste time on discourse that we can learn in English class.

8/7/2019 Census AFF





AT: F/X T Bad

1. We meet: hiring is a social service, so our plan directly increases social services

Lynn, Professor public management, University Chicago, 01 (Laurence E. Lynn, Jr ., Professor public management, Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy

Studies, University of Chicago, 4/28/01, http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/About/publications/working- papers/pdf/wp_01_13.pdf)

Although the government role in social services provision had been evolving for over a century at thestate level, the changes induced by federal policy over the past three decades is more than incremental.³Publicly supported human services in America are undergoing a massive transformation,´ say Feltyand Jones (1998). ³In the next decade they will experience fundamental changes in financing(managed care), drastic consolidation, and entrance into the field by multibillion dollar nationalcompanies´ (p. 207). Though this view is perhaps overstated, new and complex patterns of interdependence and new organizational forms are restructuring a sector comprising over 66,000 public, private, and for-profit social service organizations. In one way or another, all fields of socialservice are affected: income and employment support, medical and mental health care, education and

training, and housing and in personal social services concerned with child and family welfare, the well- being of older people, domestic violence, substance abuse, vocational rehabilitation, refugeeassistance, emergency food assistance, and others (Kamerman and Kahn 1976, Salamon 1999).

2. Counter-interp: The plan is topical as long as it is the root cause of an increase

Answers.com, commonly used online dictionary, 09 (Answers.com, commonly used online dictionary, 09, http://www.answers.com/topic/root-cause)

A root cause is an initiating cause of a causal chain which leads to an outcome or effect of interest.Commonly, root cause is used to describe the depth in the causal chain where an intervention couldreasonably be implemented to change performance and prevent an undesirable outcome.

And an increase means to cause growthAnswers.com, commonly used online dictionary, 09 (Answers.com, commonly used online dictionary, 09,

increasev increase [inkris] to (cause to) grow in size, number etc

3. We meet the counter-interp because we effectually increase social services for persons living in poverty

in the U.S.

4. Standards

a) Overlimits ± almost every case on the topic takes a number of steps in order to be topical, and tolimit the topic to this degree kills aff ground. Whats left of the ground, which is only a handful of affs,are easily solved by states. While this aff makes it a little harder for the neg, to follow their interpwould make debate impossible for the aff, whereas our interp allows for better debate and education asit levels the playing field.

b) Real world ± every action in policy making is judged by the effects that it will have.

8/7/2019 Census AFF




c) Reasonability ± definition is arbitrary, so you err aff

d) Increases ground ± every additional step taken by the affirmative is another way to get links tocriticisms, disads and PIC ground.

e) Still predictable ± the plan is still germane to the resolution, and finding literature on our aff is easy.

f) No abuse ± there is no real abuse from us taking any steps in the round, don¶t vote on potential abuseit¶d be like punishing us for a crime we never committed.

g) Increases education ± we increase the education about the topic by alternative causation, causingmore research, higher education levels and better debate.

5. Topicality is not a voting issuea) No in-round abuse has been proven. We don¶t explode the topic, being that their T is so case-specific. b) We fit under the resolution and both interpretations, so we are topical.

c) Education and predictability, which is key in debate. We only learn if we debate stock issues, nottopicality. We waste time on discourse that we can learn in English class.

census aff

Documents