cement industry of bangladesh - ebl securities development of cement industry in bangladesh dates...

1 Disclaimer of EBLSL and the Analysts is located at the end of this report. 7 September 2017

Cement is a major ingredient for the construction industry. The process of producing cement is highly energy intensive. The process requires procuring limestone, shell, and clay. Afterwards, the raw materials are crushed and heated at a temperature in excess of 1,000 degree Celsius to produce clinker. For producing final grade of cement, clinker is mixed with gypsum and grounded to fine powder. The cost of the whole process amounts to 29% energy, 27% raw materials, 32% labor, and 12% depreciation. The intensity of uses of cement depends on the rate of urbanization and the amount of development projects undertaken. The development of cement industry in Bangladesh dates back to the early-fifties. Till 1990 about 95% of the country's demand for cement had been met through import. Some enthusiastic entrepreneurs ventured into setting up cement plants during 1997 to 2000 which opened a new era in this sector. Prior to inception, Bangladesh used to import cement from global market. As new players entered into the market with no participants, they tapped into the already existing huge demand for cement. The dependency on import lowered in the following years. Currently local producers and multinational companies have engaged in cement production to fulfill the local demand. Product nature: There are several types of common cement which can be grouped into five general categories: Gray Ordinary Portland Cement, White Portland Cement, Masonry or Mortar, Oil-well Cement and Blended Cement and three strength classes: ordinary, high and very high. At present, the ratio of production of PCC and OPC is around 95:5. PCC gives equal strength and durability like OPC. Only 65-80% of clinker is required to produce PCC while 95% of clinker is required to produce OPC. So, worldwide PCC has become popular which requires less clinker. Global Scenario: Fuelled by the extensive growth of Chinese cement market and cement markets of developing countries, the global cement market has experienced a massive growth. According to IMARC group, the global market rose to volume of around 5.0 billion tons in 2016 which was around 3.7 billion tons in the year 2012. Chinese market has continued to be the biggest driver of growth alongside countries from North America as USA has continued to recover from recessionary conditions that began in 2007. In the upcoming years India is expected to garner the fastest growth in terms of demand for cement generating 8.0% growth rate per year in the next five years. Regional comparison: Although the growth in the demand of cement has been increasing in Bangladesh, it is far below than that of many developing countries. So, there is a broader scope of growth for cement sector of Bangladesh. The ongoing construction projects are contributing towards the growing demand of cement but delaying in the implementation of projects are curtailing the full potential and speed of the consumption growth of cement. Bangladesh is one of the lowest consumers of cement products in the world. Average per capita cement consumption in the world is 500 kg while that of Bangladesh is only 120 kg. However, per capita cement consumption in Bangladesh witnessed lucrative growth over the last few years.

Cement Industry of Bangladesh

Source: The Daily Star (December 18, 2016)

Per Capita Cement Consumption in Kg Average per capita

cement consumption in

the world is 500 kg while

that of Bangladesh is only

120 kg.

Handsome liquidity

position

Till 1990 about 95% of

the country's demand

for cement had been

met through import

Only 65-80% of clinker

is required to produce

PCC while 95% of

clinker is required to

produce OPC

Chinese market has

continued to be the

biggest driver of growth


Production Capacity and Utilization: Currently the industry is experiencing overcapacity of cement production. In a recently surveyed report by Cement Manufacturer’s Association, it has been found that there is production capacity of 40 million tons, whereas actual production is hovering around 32 million tons. The machineries and equipment and manufacturing sites are not being utilized fully by the cement manufacturing companies. On an average the utilization rate of cement manufacturing companies is currently around 75.0-80.0%. There are currently 34 companies who are operating as cement producer. Environment of overcapacity in the cement industry gives an inkling that there is little scope for newcomers to have minimum amount of market share in the industry. The installed capacity of the local manufacturers far outstrips domestic demand. Though there is over-capacity in the sector, the market demand is almost equal to the effective capacity during peak season. Present installed capacity of the industry is 40 million MT. However, due to interruption in power supply and other constraints, effective capacity is much lower. The hidden capacity is there but it’s not actually hidden as there are around 12% wastage. Cement manufactures calls it waste because of production error. The cement production is mostly demand driven as it directly depends on demand. Presently, the actual production of all plants in Bangladesh is roughly 32 million MT which means that the sector is now utilizing roughly 80% of the total industry capacity. At present the demand side of the market is mainly dominated by Government’s infrastructure development projects, industrial constructions and real estate companies, and independent home builders. Export: Export revenue from Cement has dropped significantly in recent period. In the FY2015-16, the export of cement from Bangladesh amounted to USD 1.71 million (BDT 133.6 million) which was USD 3.94 million (BDT 307.8 million) in FY 2014-15, representing 43.4% plunge in export sales (Source: The Daily Prothom-alo). Bangladesh started exporting cement from 2003. M.I. Cement Factory Limited was the pioneer in cement export from Bangladesh. Cement export data presents that Crown Cement ( a brand of M.I. Cement) accounts for 37% of the total export volume in cement (Source: MI Cement Annual Report). Presently cement is being exported to India, Myanmar, Nepal, Maldives

Capacity and Utilization of Some Major Cement Manufacturing Companies

Production Capacity (mn MT)

Production (mn MT)

Capacity Utilization Ratio

HEIDELBCEM 2.4 1.7 71%

LAFSURCEML-Cement 1.5 1.5 97%

LAFSURCEML-Clinker 1.4 1.4 99%

MICEMENT 1.7 1.5 87%

PREMIERCEM 2.8 1.5 55%

MEGHNACEM 1.0 1.2 120%

CONFIDCEM 0.8 0.5 72%

ARAMITCEM 0.2 0.1 48%

Source: Company Annual report, DSE & EBLSL Research

On an average the

utilization rate of cement

manufacturing companies is

currently around 75.0-80.0%

Handsome liquidity position

Source: Industry Players' Estimate and EBLSL Research and The Daily Star (December 18, 2016)

Production Capacity and Utilization


and Sri Lanka. Bangladesh exports 0.5 to 0.6 million MT of cement a year to the seven-sister market in India. However, the export of cement has declined in recent period as Indian manufactures are now offering cement at lower rates than Bangladeshi companies due to their anti-dumping tax benefits. Furthermore, Bangladesh's exports to Tripura through Akhaura land port is likely to drop further as the government has granted transit facility to India and the recent improvements in infrastructure on the Indian side. Availing transit facility, India is now being able to shift cement at lower costs to the “Seven Sister States” of north-eastern India through Bangladesh. The shipment cost is much lower compared to importing from Bangladesh. Myanmar is showing another prospective market for export of cement to boost up and develop the cement export. Raw-materials: For the production of cement, two types of materials are necessary: one rich in calcium or calcareous materials such as limestone, chalk, etc. and another that is rich in silica or argillaceous materials such as clay, which are extracted from quarry. Limestone is the primary raw-materials for producing cement clinker. There are also various other raw materials used for cement manufacturing (i.e. fly ash, slag, gypsum, mill scale and bauxite). Bangladesh is import dependent and it is one of the largest importers of clinkers globally. Of the 32 cement producers that are currently in operation, only two have clinker production facility at their own plants. One is Chhatak Cement Factory Ltd, a government owned company, with limited production capacity and another is Lafarge Surma Cement Ltd. The major cement manufacturers are importing the required raw materials including clinker, gypsum, fly ash and iron slag from abroad and using grinding technology to produce cement. At present, several local cement manufacturers procure clinker from Lafarge while most of the manufacturers import clinker from China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Lafarge Surma Cement Ltd produces approximately 10% of total clinker required for Bangladesh. Some manufacturers also use local limestone collected from Sylhet. Majority portion of imported fly ash is sourced from India; slag is imported from China, India, Japan and Singapore while Gypsum is sourced from China, India, Indonesia and Japan. The prime raw material of cement, clinker, is currently 80.0% imported. Bangladesh has a scarcity of mineral resources, such as limestone, and hence, is not capable enough to meet the demand for clinker. Clinker import has been raised quite significantly for Bangladesh. Meanwhile in the last two fiscal years (2014-15 and 2015-16) the payment for clinker import in terms of USD has dropped due to the price fall of clinker in the global market. Bangladesh imports an estimated 10 million MT to 15 million MT of Clinker and Limestone

Major raw-materials for

cement production are

limestone (for clinker),

chalk, clay, fly ash, slag

and gypsum

Handsome liquidity

position

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

0

200

400

600

800

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

Clinker Import of Bangladesh (C&F) (Million US$)

Clinker Import (C&F) (Million US$)

Import Growth

Source: Bangladesh Bank Data

Source: EBLSL Research

Most of the

manufacturers import

clinker from China,

Hong Kong, India,

Indonesia, Japan, Korea,

Malaysia, Philippines,

Singapore, Thailand and

Vietnam

Clinker & Lime stone

74%

Slag8%

Bags9%

Gypsum4%

Fly-ash5%

In the last two fiscal

years (2014-15 and

2015-16) the payment

for clinker import in

terms of USD has

dropped due to the price

fall of clinker in the

global market

In the FY2015-16, the

export of cement from

Bangladesh amounted to

USD 1.71 million (BDT

133.6 million) which was

USD 3.94 million (BDT

307.8 million) in FY 2014-

15, representing 43.4%

plunge in export sales

Handsome liquidity

position


from different South-East Asian countries annually. Bangladesh mostly relied on imported clinker in FY 2015 and also remained as the largest importer of clinker. Global clinker price downward trend has enabled the cement manufacturing companies tackle their cost of goods sold quite satisfactorily. Clinker Price per MT stood at on an average BDT 5,383 in the year 2012 which has fallen down to BDT 4,249 in the year 2016. In the year 2016 the clinker price per MT has fallen down by 14.1% compared to previous year. However, the downward trend in the global clinker price has become a threat for Lafarge-Holcim since Lafarge Surma supplies clinker to other cement manufacturing companies. Except Lafarge Surma, other cement manufacturing companies can capitalize the advantage to cushion the price fall of cement.

Major players and competition: Currently, only 32 factories are in operation, including four

multinational companies. At present, 81% of the total market share is held by top ten manufacturers. Among the top 10 cement market players in Bangladesh, 8 are local and 2 are multinational.

Multinational cement companies are facing intensive competition with local companies which are grabbing the top slot of the industry by operating in economy of scale and with deft marketing strategy. MNCs now hold only 25-30% of the total market share. As a result of failure to penetrate market, two of the global cement group, UAE based Emirates Cement and Mexico-based cement manufacturer Cemex has recently divested their Bangladesh operations. However, completion of acquisition of Holcim by Lafarge Surma will reshape the industry dominance in Bangladesh as both the companies already operates own business here. After the completion of acquisition, Lafarge-Holcim has the 2nd place in terms of market share.

Market Share as of 2016

Source: Industry Players' Estimates and EBLSL Research (Bashundhara Group represents combined capacity of Meghna Cement and Bashundhara Cement)

In the year 2016 the

clinker price per MT has

fallen down by 14.1%

compared to previous

year

Clinker Price/MT



Cement Company Promoter Products Brand Installed Capacity (Million

MT/Year)

Post Expansion

Capacity

Shah Cement Abul Khair Group OPC & PCC Shah Cement 5.20 -

Bashundhara Group Bashundhara Group OPC & PCC Bashundhara Cement & King Brand Cement

5.05 7.05

Lafarge Holcim Cement LafargeHolcim Clinker, OPC &

PCC

Powercrete+, Supercrete and

Holcim

Cement: 3.40 Clinker: 1.15

-

Aman Cement Aman Group OPC Amancem 3.75

Unique Cement (Fresh) Meghna Group OPC, PCC & Portland Pozzolana Cement

Fresh Cement 3.60 -

Seven Rings Cement Shun Shing Group International Ltd.

OPC & PCC Seven Rings Cement 3.50 4.40

Premier Cement Premier Cement OPC & PCC Premier Cement 2.80 5.80

Heidelberg Cement HC Netherlands Holding B.V (39.8%), HC Asia Holding GmbH, Germany (20.86%)

OPC & PCC Scan Cement & Ruby Cement 2.38 -

Crown Cement M.I. Cement Mills Ltd. OPC & PCC Crown Cement 1.74 3.50

Madina (Tiger) Cement Madina Cement Industries Ltd.

OPC & PCC Tiger Cement 1.69 -

Akij Cement Akij Group Fly-Ash Free Cement

Akij Cement 1.20 -

Royal Cement Kabir Steel Group & BSA Group

OPC & PCC Royal Cement 1.00 -

Anwar Cement Anwar Group OPC, and Portland Pozzolana Cement

Anwar Cement 1.00 -

Confidence Cement Confidence Group OPC & PCC Confidence Cement 0.75 1.50

Eastern Cement Doreen Group OPC & PCC Seven Horse Cement and Seven Horse Supreme

0.45 -

Mongla Cement Sena Kalyan Sangstha PCC Elephant Brand Cement 0.39 -

S. Alam Cement S.Alam Group PCC Minar Brand 0.36 -

Aramit Cement Aramit Group PCC Camel 0.20 0.70

Mir Cement Mir Group OPC & PCC Mir Cement 0.20 -

Mostafa-Hakim Cement Mostafa-Hakim Family OPC Taj Mahal Cement 0.17 -

Source: EBLSL Research **OPC= Ordinary Portland Cement; PCC= Portland composite Cement

Market segmentation: Cement consumer of the country can be segmented by location, purchasing approaches, behavior, seasonal variation, volume, brand preferences and frequency personal characteristics etc. Cement consumers’ characteristics can also be segmented into price sensitive customers, quality conscious customers and quality and price tolerance customers. In broader aspects the customers of cement in Bangladesh can be grouped into two large segments- private and public. Previously individual homebuilders contributed the highest towards demand for cement but Government’s recent mega projects have helped public sector contributes the highest towards demand for cement. Among the private sector the scattered domestic individual homemaker and commercial

Individual Home

Builder25%

Real Estate Developer & Contractors

30%

Govt. Development

Projects45%

Source: Annual Reports of Listed Companies


real estate developers consumes 25% and 30% of the total cement production while the public sector consumes almost 45% of the consumers segments. Geographical breakdown of consumption: In Bangladesh, business operation of the most of the cement manufacturers is geographically concentrated. Cement consumption also varies region wise. Out of total production, three-fourth of the cement produced in the country is consumed in Dhaka and Chittagong division and the rest in other divisions. This made cement a regional commodity where lower distribution cost make it remunerative to its producers. However, a major change is now apparent in the rural economy of Bangladesh that resulted into increased consumption of cement in those areas. Especially the demand for cement is growing in the northern, western and southern part of Bangladesh. The regional deviation is mainly due to the nonexistence of balance of demand and supply; difference of per capita income of the population and level of industrial developments of the regions. Another important feature of cement industry is that it highly depends on plant location. High transportation cost makes it infeasible for the manufacturers to supply cement to distant areas from the plant location. To gain optimum control in specific locality, cement manufacturers establish production facilities there. Such initiatives are not only driven by the intention of reducing high transportation cost but also required by the product nature itself as quality of cement starts to diminish after production. For example, LafargeHolcim Cement leads the Sylhet market as they have a plant there. Pricing: There exists high price war in the cement industry. To avail extra market share, pricing is a key in the crowded market with excess capacity. Several national level producers practice fluctuating pricing policy between regions to achieve competitive benefits. Currently, the standard price of one bag (50 kg) cement produced by the multinational & local companies range within BDT 370 to BDT410 per bag. The cement price in Bangladesh has been witnessing down trend since last three years and dropped by roughly 5-6% per bag compared to the prices in 2016. Reduction in raw material price along with stiff competition in the market has forced the cement manufacturers to reduce the cement price. The raw-materials for cement witnessed a downward price trend over the last four years. Among the key raw-materials, Clinker witnessed 14.1% price fall in 2016 from that of the 2015.

Three-fourth of the

cement produced in the

country is consumed in

Dhaka and Chittagong

division and the rest in

other divisions

Handsome liquidity

position

Division-wise Demand

Source: Annual Reports of Listed Companies

Retail Price of Cement (50 kg bag)


Maymenshingh


Seasonal factors have high influence on fluctuation in retail price and following the freight cost, cement price are not same throughout the country at a single point of time though the price of cement produced by different player s in the industry are very close to one another. Seasonality: Cement sector in Bangladesh experiences high seasonality. Peak season is considered during the winter season (November to April) while demand for cement goes slow during the monsoon (June to October) period. The demand for cement sharply declines during the monsoons due to slowdown in construction activities. According to the industry personnel, 60% of the total yearly sales are generated in the first half of the year and rest 40% sales are generated in the second half of the year due to seasonality. Though the yearly capacity of cement sector was saturated with overcapacity, market demand gets matched or cross the effective capacity during the peak season. Furthermore, the cement industry, like most other capital intensive industries, is cyclical in nature with respect to supply. Manufacturers give incentive, commission and foreign trip campaign to the employed executives and dealers/distributors/traders over the year while taking promotional activities in off pick season.

Factors driving the demand for Cement in Bangladesh Increasing growth of construction sector and increasing urbanization have driven the demand for cement in Bangladesh

Owing to the urbanization, improved living standard and increasing purchasing power, the construction sector of Bangladesh is passing a shining period. The demand for cement is closely linked with the growth of construction sector as when the construction sector found strong, then demand of cement increased. Construction and real estate activities are the two major drivers of cement consumption.

Construction Sector of Bangladesh

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Size of Construction Sector (BDT bn) 447 483 522 567 617

Share of GDP at Constant Prices 6.80% 6.90% 7.00% 7.20% 7.30%

Growth Rate of size of Construction Sector 8.40% 8.00% 8.10% 8.60% 8.90%

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Real Estate Sector of Bangladesh

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Size of real estate sector (BDT bn) 476 495 516 539 563

Share of GDP at Constant Prices 7.20% 7.10% 7.00% 6.80% 6.60%

Growth Rate of Real Estate Sector 3.90% 4.00% 4.30% 4.40% 4.50%

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Peak Season November to April/May

Dull/off season June to October (depends on monsoons)

The demand for cement

sharply declines during

the monsoons due to

slowdown in construction

activities

Handsome liquidity

position


The growth of construction sector has been greater than GDP growth rate. Hence, construction sector’s share of GDP has been growing gradually over the years. On the other hand growth rate of real estate sector has been lower than GDP growth rate and correspondingly real estate sector’s share of GDP has been declining over the years. The size of construction sector has been mainly accelerated by many Government development projects that have been undertaken recently. The country’s increasing urbanization has stimulated growth for the building materials and has generated considerable needs for cement. Urban population has grown at a greater speed over the years. By the end of year 2016 the urban population stands at 35.0% of total population and the number will get bigger in the upcoming years. Mega Projects are contributing towards increasing demand for cement

Project Completion Date Cost

Padma Bridge Year 2018 USD 3.7 billion

Rooppur Nuclear Power Year 2020 USD 12.7 billion

Rampal Power Project Year 2018 USD 1.5 billion

Matarbari Coal Power Year 2022 USD 4.6 billion

Metro Rail Year 2019 USD 2.7 billion

Deep Sea Port Year 2023 USD 15.0 billion

Mega projects contribute heavily towards the increasing demand for cement and there are some big projects that are ongoing and expected to initiate soon to uplift the demand for cement in Bangladesh. In the recent budget (2017-18) Government has allocated BDT 306 billion which is one-fifth of total ADP for six mega projects. Budget allocation to transportation and communication has undergone a massive growth over the years and hence, Government development projects’ contribution towards demand for cement has turned out to be the highest in the recent year overtaking individual homebuilders’ contribution.

Industry Concerns Although a booming sector with great potentiality, cement industry has also some risk factors. Firstly, it is threatened by over supply resulting from huge capacity expansion by almost all leading industry players. Roughly, 40% capacity is likely to be added to currently capacity by the end of the next year. However, since it takes 2-2.5 years to build a cement plant, it is likely that before completion, demand could decrease or stagnate, or the capacity additions could exceed demand. If the demand does not go up in line with the capacity enhancement, there will remain a huge surplus capacity of cement production

Construction and real

estate activities are the

two major drivers of

cement consumption

Handsome liquidity

position

In the recent budget

(2017-18) Government

has allocated BDT 306

billion which is one-fifth of

total ADP for six mega

projects

Handsome liquidity

position

28.2%29.0%

29.7%30.5%

31.2%32.0%

32.8%33.5%

34.3%35.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U R B A N P O P U LA T I O N ( % O F T O T A L)

Source: World Bank Data

94.38

124.97142.65

190.57

268.24

372.89

6.19%

7.18%7.58%

9.32%

10.14%

10.95%

5.0 %

6.0 %

7.0 %

8.0 %

9.0 %

10. 0%

11. 0%

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 ® 2016-17

Allocation to Transportation and Communication (BDT, bn)

Transportation and Communication

Percentage of Budget

Source: Bangladesh Budget


in the coming years. This can lead to a fall in cement prices, and the industry could face a downturn, leading to reducing operating rates or shutting down capacities. Secondly, almost all raw materials of cement are imported, if the supplies of the same are cut-off due to adverse political cause or other disturbance, the industry may face serious challenges, even the risk of shut down. Besides, following the high contribution of raw materials in the cost structure, any movement in the price of clinker and other raw materials will eventually affect the profitability and performance of the cement manufacturer. Finally, exports also predict some problems in the future. India was reliant on imports from Bangladesh for a number of products including cement, especially for its seven sister regions. Fall in inward remittance has posed a threat to the cement industry as individual homebuilders’ ability to spend on construction has declined correspondingly With fall in remittance from the gulf region, concern has been raised. Demand for cement may see a downturn due to low remittance which is a major source of income for individual homebuilders. Inward remittance has fallen down sharply in the FY 2016-17. By the end of 2016-17 the total inward remittance stood at USD 12,769 mn which was USD 14,931 mn in the previous FY. The fall in the inward remittance poses a threat for the cement industry. As individual home builders is one of the major contributors to cement demand, fall in inward remittance may curtail the overall demand for cement. The demand for cement in the rural areas will also fall in effect as previously demand for cement was fuelled by rural individual homebuilders. Unless the inflow of remittance regains its bright days, the cement industry may get hurt badly. National Election to be held by the end of 2018 or in the beginning of 2019 is a critical time for cement industry The year 2018-19 may remain critical as national election is to be held by the end of 2018 or in the beginning of 2019. As construction sector is highly sensitive to political situation, overall dynamic of cement industry may get affected by the uncertainty that may loom over the national election period. The uncertainty over political condition during election period is a major concern for the cement industry.

Industry outlook The future potential of the country’s cement industry is strong. According to the industry specialists, the outlook for cement in 2017-2021 remains promising with an expected CAGR of 15% mainly driven by the residential sector (Annual reports of listed companies). Growing housing up-gradation among individual homemakers is driving the major contribution in cement consumption. Industrial construction taking place in economic zones are also accelearting the growth. At the same time, major infrastructural projects are also in the pipeline to support economic growth agenda. Due to rapid pace of urbanization, industrialization, large-scale infrastructural and Governmental development projects as well as construction of various commercial and residential buildings, demand for cement has markedly increased and the growth is expected to be continued in future. The trend of demand for cement is expected to continue till FY 2035.

Source: Bangladesh Bank

By the end of 2016-17 the

total inward remittance

stood at USD 12,769 mn

which was USD 14,931 mn

in the previous FY.

Handsome liquidity

position

The outlook for cement in

2017-2020 remains

promising with an

expected CAGR of 15%

mainly driven by the

residential sector

Total Inward Remittance

If the demand does not go

up in line with the

capacity enhancement,

there will remain a huge

surplus capacity of

cement production in the

coming year

Handsome liquidity

position

Construction

sector is highly

sensitive to

political situation

Handsome liquidity

position


Capital market performance Currently there are seven listed cement manufacturing companies in Bangladesh capital market which are, Aramit Cement Ltd. (ARAMITCEM), Confidence Cement Ltd. (CONFIDCEM), Heidelberg Cement Bangladesh Ltd. (HEIDELBCEM), Lafarge Surma Cement Ltd. (LAFSURCEML), Meghna Cement Mills Ltd. (MEGHNACEM), M.I. Cement Factory Ltd. (MICEMENT) and Premier Cement Mills Ltd. (PREMIERCEM). Out of them two are multinational and others are local manufacturers. Among the listed cement manufacturing companies, only LafargeHolcim is the fully integrated cement manufacturing company in Bangladesh and rest of all are basically grinders. Heidelberg cement has the highest production capacity among the listed companies in cement sector. Following table represent the present installed capacity of listed cement manufacturing companies and their capacity utilization scenario in the last financial year.

Shareholding structure Sponsors hold significant of the shares of PREMIERCEM (80.83%) followed by MICEMENT (67.1%) and LAFSURCEML (64.7%). None of the listed cement manufacturing company has government ownership. As on date, institutional holding is highest in the HEIDELBCEM (26.7%) followed by CONFIDCEM (23.5%). Both the listed multinational company i.e. HEIDELBCEM and LAFSURCEML has 1.5% and 1.4% foreign holding respectively. Among the local companies, MICEMENT and PREMIERCEM has 0.4% and 0.1% foreign shareholding. Public holding is highest in CONFIDCEM (50.9%) and lowest in PREMIERCEM (9.3%).

Comparative position in the capital market Among the listed cement manufacturing companies, Lafarge Surma (LAFSURCEML) holds the highest paid up capital while Meghna Cement (MEGHNACEM), a concern of Bashundhara Group holds the lowest paid up capital.

ARAMITCEM CONFIDCEM HEIDELBCEM LAFSURCEML MEGHNACEM MICEMENT PREMIERCEM

Relative Position

Current Price 38.7 156.4 463.6 64.3 106.3 98.0 94.4

Market Cap (mn) 1,311 7,037 26,195 74,676 2,392 14,553 9,954

Paid-up Capital (mn) 338.8 450.0 565.0 11,613.7 225.0 1,485.0 1,054.5

52 Week Range 29.2 - 49.2 82.3 - 165.0 445.1 - 574.0 61.0 - 90.0 88.4 - 120.5 72.6 - 112.2 82.5 - 103.5

Free Float (Pub+Ins.+For) 53.58% 74.50% 39.33% 35.32% 50.19% 32.92% 19.17%

Market weight 0.03% 0.18% 0.67% 1.91% 0.06% 0.37% 0.25%

3 Months Average T/O (mn) 4.7 71.1 12.6 43.2 0.5 12.1 5.5

3 Months Return -4.4% 18.6% -8.80% -10.70% -3.40% -11.50% 0.10%

No. of Shares (mn) 33.9 45.0 56.5 1,161.4 22.5 148.5 105.5 Source: DSE Website & EBLSL Research

Shareholding Structure Sponsor/Director Govt Institute Foreign Public ARAMITCEM 46.42% 0.00% 17.13% 0.00% 36.45% CONFIDCEM 25.50% 0.00% 23.54% 0.00% 50.96% HEIDELBCEM 60.67% 0.00% 26.72% 1.46% 11.15% LAFSURCEML 64.68% 0.00% 14.66% 1.43% 19.23% MEGHNACEM 49.81% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50.19% MICEMENT 67.08% 0.00% 17.52% 0.43% 14.97% PREMIERCEM 80.83% 0.00% 9.85% 0.01% 9.31%

Source: DSE Website

Seven cement

manufacturing companies

are listed in the capital

market along with two

MNCs

Handsome liquidity

position

Sponsors hold majority of

the shares of listed

cement manufacturing

companies

Handsome liquidity

position

Overview of Listed Companies under Cement Sector


Comparative financial position As per the latest 12 months ended audited financial statements, LAFSURCEML has the highest asset base (BDT 21.1 billion) followed by MICEMENT (BDT 17.1 billion). Multinational company LAFSURCEML and HEIDELBCEM do not have any long term debt in their capital structure. LAFSURCEML has some form of STD but the amount is not significant compared to other similar companies. MICEMENT has the highest amount of long term debt as well as total debt in their capital structure.


Q1' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17 Q1' 2017 Q1' 2017 Q3' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17

Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann.

Company fundamentals

Assets 2,842 7,060 10,858 21,091 4,884 17,088 12,087

Long term debt 484 4 0 0 210 1,464 1,417

Total debt 1,827 2,639 0 460 3,003 8,063 6,189

Equity 476 3,507 5,948 15,792 773 6,964 4,230

Debt Equity 383.74% 75.26% 0.00% 2.91% 388.33% 115.78% 146.32%

Debt Total Asset 64.29% 37.39% 0.00% 2.18% 61.49% 47.19% 51.20%

Interest Cov ratio 0.9 4.7 n/a 43.0 1.1 4.1 3.4

Note: ARAMITCEM, CONFIDCEM and MEGHNACEM has changed their financial year from December ending to June ending from the last financial year, as a result they have published 18 Months audit report as on June 2016. However, for comparison purpose we have only considered latest quarterly financial statements of the respective companies.

Comparative financial results & profitability indicators

HEIDELBCEM posted highest revenue in the last quarterly financial statements on an annualized basis while ARAMITCEM posted lowest revenue among listed cement manufacturers. Gross profit margin and operating profit margin of LAFSURCEML were the highest (28.3% and 18.8% respectively) in the latest quarter on an annualized basis. Own sourcing of raw-materials by LAFSURCEML made it cost leader in the market with lowest production cost per unit.

Financial Information (BDT mn)


Q1' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17 Q1' 2017 Q1' 2017 Q3' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17 Q3' 2016-17

Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann. Ann.

Revenue 1,134 3,317 12,377 9,740 4,546 9,523 9,856

Gross Profit 270 482 2,839 2,753 421 1,755 1,739

Operating Profit 186 326 1,858 1,834 232 1,277 1,121

Net Profit -37 463 1,426 1,238 17 706 552

Profitability

Gross Profit Margin 23.8% 14.5% 22.9% 28.3% 9.3% 18.4% 17.6%

Operating Profit Margin 16.4% 9.8% 15.0% 18.8% 5.1% 13.4% 11.4%

Net Profit Margin -3.3% 13.9% 11.5% 12.7% 0.4% 7.4% 5.6%

ROA -1.3% 6.6% 13.1% 5.9% 0.3% 4.1% 4.6%

ROE -7.8% 13.2% 24.0% 7.8% 2.2% 10.1% 13.1%

Note: ARAMITCEM, CONFIDCEM and MEGHNACEM has changed their financial year from December ending to June ending from the last financial year, as a result they have published 18 Months audit report as on June 2016. However, for comparison purpose we have considered latest quarterly financial statements.


Comparative valuation tools HEIDELBCEM cement offers lucrative cash dividend among the listed cement manufacturing companies. MEGHNACEM is currently trading at the highest PE multiple (139.9x) followed by LAFSURCEML (59.5x).


Latest 12 Months' EPS -2.0 12.1 22.7 1.4 0.7 4.8 6.6

EPS (anualized) -2.1 10.3 25.2 1.1 0.8 4.8 5.2

DPS 1.2* 3.75* 30 1.0 1.5* 2 1.5

NAVPS 12.6 78.0 105.3 13.6 34.4 46.9 40.1

P/E n/a 15.2 18.4 59.5 139.9 20.6 18.0

P/V 3.1 2.0 4.4 4.7 3.1 2.1 2.4

*DPS for the 18 months period.

Dividend history

Even though several of the companies in cement sector used to declare bonus dividend along with cash dividend in the past years, there is a trend towards distributing cash dividend in recent period. Like most other MNCs’ in the market, HEIDELBCEM has been declaring sound cash dividend over the year. LAFSURCEML did not declare any dividend up to FY2013. Since FY2014 LAFSURCEML has been declaring interim dividend along with its final dividend declaration but total dividend remained 10% of its paid up capital in each of the year. ARAMITCEM, CONFIDCEM and MEGHNACEM has declared total 12%, 37.5% and 15% dividend for the 18 months period of January 2015 to June 2016.

Dividend History 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ARAMITCEM 10%B 10%C 10%C 10%C n/a 12%C* CONFIDCEM 20%C & 20%B 20%C 27.5%C 25%C n/a 37.50%* HEIDELBCEM 45%C 50%C 380%C 380%C 300%C 300%C LAFSURCEML n/a n/a n/a 10%C 10%c 10%C MEGHNACEM 25%C 25%C 15%c 15%C n/a 15%C* MICEMENT 15%C & 35%B 35%C & 10%B 40%C 30%C 25%C 20%C PREMIERCEM n/a n/a 40%C 30%C 20%C 15%C

*Dividend for 18 months period ended on June 2016; Source: DSE & EBLSL Research

Performance of cement sector in DSE Cement sector holds 3.5% share of DSE market capitalization which has been in downtrend since June 2015 and the downtrend sustained until July 2017. Reason behind the trend is 50.3% fall the price of LAFSURCEML over the period holding 58.34% of sector capitalization. Due to seasonality of the sector, most of the stocks performs better in the peak season (first half of calendar year). The sector underperformed relative to the market since September 2015 as visible in the rebased performance of cement sector and overall market capitalization .


50

70

90

110

130

Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17

Rebased Performance of Cement Sector Compared to DSEX

DSEX Cement Sector M.Cap

7.1%

5.7%

5.7%

6.1%

6.0%

5.9%

5.7%

5.3%

5.0%

4.8%

4.6%

4.7%

4.6%

4.3%

4.3%

4.6%

4.5%

4.6%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

4.6%

4.4%

4.3%

4.0%

3.9%

3.7%

3.6%

3.5%

2.0 %

3.0 %

4.0 %

5.0 %

6.0 %

7.0 %

8.0 %

Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17

Cement Sector Cap to Market Cap

35.0

55.0

75.0

95.0

115.0

135.0

Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17

Rebased Performance of Listed Cement Manufacturers M. Cap Vs DSEX

DSEX ARAMITCEM CONFIDCEM

HEIDELBCEM LAFSURCEML MEGHNACEM

MICEMENT PREMIERCEM


Investment Insights

Investment Insights Company Name

Company Insight Potential Impact

ARAMITCEM

Aramit Cement Limited has recently increased its production capacity from 0.2 mn MT to 0.7 mn MT. The sales may get boosted in the upcoming quarters

The company’s operating expenses as well as finance expenses has increased significantly that resulted into significant fall in the net profit margin

LAFSURCEML

Successful implementation of the acquisition deal with Holcim Bangladesh Limited has increased the company’s production capacity significantly that will soon result in huge growth in earnings and profitability

The present installed annual production capacity of Holcim Cement (Bangladesh) Ltd. is 2.2 million MT and average capacity utilization ratio is 60-70%

The company has already received the permission from Indian Government to increase Limestone import limit from 2.0 million MT to 5.0 million MT from India The company will be able to supply more clinker in local market and boost in topline growth

Production cost and financial expense have increased significantly in the recent quarters

HEIDELBCEM

The company is in the process of acquiring 99.99% share of a small power plant by investing BDT 910.8 million only to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply for production of the Company that will save electricity cost significantly

The Company has informed that the Board of Directors has decided to build a Wharf/Jetty at its Kanchpur Plant for increasing loading and unloading facilities of the Plant at a cost of BDT 325.2 mn (apporx.) which will increase the productivity of Kanchpur Plant

Operating expense and manufacturing overhead cost have increased significantly for the company. Selling and distribution expense and administrative expense have increased as % of revenue which stood at 3.4% and 4.6% respectively in the Q1’2017 which were 2.1% and 3.7% in the previous year

CONFIDCEM

Confidence Cement Limited will hold ownership of 51% in the new joint venture and the new joint venture will be installing two furnace oil based power plants in Rangpur and Bogra each having 113 MW capacity

The expected yearly revenue from the two power plants are estimated to be (considering 80% operational time of the plants) BDT 13.0 billion At conservative 10% (on the basis of other HFO based power plants) NPM, Confidence Cement Limited will have share of profit of BDT 630.9 million from the commencement of full year commercial production.

CCL has completed sale of the holdings of Energypac Confidence Power Venture Limited and ECPV Chittagong Limited at a selling consideration of BDT 807.9 million This will pose a one-off gain of BDT 63.8 million for CCL. The EPS has absorbed an impact of roughly BDT 1.41 due to one-off gain in the 4th quarter of 2016-17

The company is expanding their production capacity to 1.44 million MT from 0.75 million MT The new unit of production is expected to be ready for commercial production from October, 2017


The projected investment in new joint venture is BDT 5.3 bn which will be financed by bank loan (BDT 4.5 bn) and internal source which will increase the financial expense from BDT 105.6 mn in 2016-17 (annualized) to BDT 296.5 mn which will negatively impact the EPS in 2017-18 period

MEGHNACEM Very low profit margin indicates that the company is underperforming the industry with high cost of production and return on equity is also lower while debt-equity ratio is very

MICEMENT

The company is installing 5th unit with an additional capacity of 1.8 mn MT per year which will raise their existing production capacity of 1.7 mn MT to 3.5 Mn MT It is expected that the commercial production from the new unit will be started from August 2017

MICEMENT is adopting VRM technology in its 5th unit which is superior than ball-mill technology The adoption of VRM technology will reduce the power consumption and produce finer quality products

Debt to equity ratio of this company is showing an increasing trend at a higher rate

PREMIERCEM

The company is implementing an expansion plan to increase production capacity to 5.8 million MT per year (100% enhancement). The project is expected to be completed within 2018

Company only utilizing its 55.0% capacity. High amount of fixed cost investment remain unutilized. As a result its revenue growth rate and ROE have been in decreasing trend

Note: The Green bar represents investment positive while the Red bar refers to investment concern.


Comparative Ratio Analysis

Ratio Analysis 2015 2015-16 2016 2016 2015 2015-16 2015-16 Industry Average

Particulars ARAMITCEM CONFIDCEM HEIDELBCEM LAFSURCEML MEGHNACEM MICEMENT PREMIERCEM

Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio 1.2 1.0 1.7 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4

Quick Ratio 1.1 0.9 1.3 2.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.2

Cash Ratio 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4

Operating Efficiency Ratios Inventory Turnover Ratio 5.1 7.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 9.2 7.5 6.5

Receivable Turnover Ratio 1.1 4.5 9.3 7.9 5.2 8.5 4.9 5.9

Average Collection Period (Days) 315.2 80.7 38.9 45.7 69.8 42.5 73.0 95.1

Inventory Conversion Period(Days) 70.8 48.6 68.5 64.4 63.6 39.0 48.2 57.6

Operating Cycle (Days) 386.0 129.2 107.4 110.1 133.4 81.6 121.2 152.7

A/C Payable Turnover Ratio 4.2 15.1 2.2 3.0 20.3 21.0 14.2 11.4

Payables Payment Period (Days) 85.3 23.9 160.4 120.7 17.8 17.1 25.4 64.4

Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) 300.7 105.3 (53.0) (10.6) 115.6 64.5 95.7 88.3

Total Asset Turnover 40.0% 54.5% 104.0% 51.1% 99.1% 63.7% 86.3% 71.2%

Fixed Asset Turnover 1008.1% 183.7% 316.1% 91.1% 439.6% 182.1% 147.7% 338.3%

Operating Profitability Ratios Gross Profit Margin (GPM) 27.1% 16.9% 25.9% 35.1% 11.3% 18.4% 21.2% 22.3%

Operating Profit Margin (OPM) 19.9% 12.1% 18.4% 26.9% 6.7% 13.3% 14.7% 16.0%

Pre Tax Profit Margin 2.5% 15.0% 19.6% 27.5% 1.9% 10.9% 9.5% 12.4%

Net Profit Margin (NPM) 1.9% 13.8% 14.2% 20.8% 1.4% 8.3% 7.4% 9.7%

Return on Total Assets (ROA) 0.8% 7.5% 14.8% 10.6% 1.4% 5.3% 6.4% 6.7%

Return on Equity (ROE) 3.2% 14.1% 27.0% 14.5% 8.0% 11.1% 15.9% 13.4%

Leverage Ratios Total Debt to Equity 271.2% 59.8% 0.0% 3.4% 367.0% 84.4% 114.1% 150.0%

Debt to Total Assets 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 3.4% 1.5%

Coverage Ratios Times Interest Earned (TIE) 1.2 4.7 - 40.4 1.4 5.0 3.1 9.3

Cash Coverage Ratio 0.2 1.6 - 51.7 1.0 15.5 0.5 11.8

Valuation Ratios P/B (price to book) Ratio 2.7 1.1 5.6 6.2 3.0 1.7 2.2 3.2

Book Value Per Share 15.0 73.8 99.0 13.2 35.3 45.3 41.2 46.1

EPS 0.5 10.4 26.7 1.9 2.8 5.0 6.5 7.7

Dividend per Share 0.9 2.5 30.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.5 5.6

Dividend Payout Ratio 184.9% 24.0% 112.4% 52.2% 35.2% 39.9% 23.1% 67.4%

Retention Rate -84.9% 76.0% -12.4% 47.8% 64.8% 60.1% 76.9% 32.6%

P/E Ratio 84.5 7.7 20.7 42.8 37.2 14.9 14.0 31.7

EV/EBITDA 15.3 10.2 12.2 26.6 16.3 8.6 8.5 14.0

EV/Sales 3.2 1.6 2.6 8.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 2.9

Price/Sales 1.6 1.1 2.9 8.9 0.5 1.2 1.0 2.5

Sales/ Share 25.5 75.7 187.6 9.2 200.8 60.7 88.8 92.6

Growth Rates EPS Growth Rate 8.2% 100.2% 0.0% -2.8% -36.6% 14.7% 69.3% 25.5%

Sales Growth Rate 38.4% -12.8% 1.1% -2.2% 20.8% 9.1% 15.6% 10.0%

Gross Profit Growth Rate 56.6% -6.2% 8.1% -3.8% 14.7% 17.4% 60.5% 21.0%

EBIT Growth Rate 41.0% -6.9% 14.3% -0.2% -10.4% 21.5% 51.4% 15.8%

PBT Growth Rate 39.2% 37.1% 9.4% 4.4% -38.8% 14.5% 106.8% 24.7%

Net Income Growth Rate 8.2% 100.2% 7.6% -2.8% -36.6% 14.7% 69.0% 22.9%

Total Asset Growth Rate 15.6% 20.1% 4.3% 1.4% 18.5% 17.4% 7.5% 12.1%

The colored cells indicate outperformance over the industry average


Statement of Comprehensive Income (Latest Financial Statements of Companies Listed under Cement Sector)

Sector: CEMENT 2015 2015-16 2016 2016 2015 2015-16 2015-16


BDT Million

Gross Profit 234 575 2,742 3,770 508 1,659 1,988

Sales 863 3,404 10,600 10,729 4,517 9,017 9,362

Cost of Goods Sold 629 2,829 7,859 6,959 4,009 7,357 7,374

Operating Profit 172 413 1,946 2,884 304 1,196 1,374

Other Operating Income/Loss 5 3 131 -11 74 40 -30

Selling/Distribution Expense 35 79 426 196 136 353 454

Administrative Expense 32 86 500 679 143 150 129

Profit Before Income Tax 22 512 2,075 2,947 85 980 893

Non-operating Income - - - - 34

Non-operating Loss 76 3

Financial Expense 149 88 - 71 221 238 440

Financial Income 28 241 135 7

Share of Profit from Associates 252 37

Contribution to WPPF 1 18 109 - 4 49 41

Income Tax Expense 5 43 568 721 21 236 201

Current Year 5 95 550 721 34 178 186

Prior Year - 17 -

Deferred Tax 0 -52 1 - -13 58 16

Net Profit After Tax 16 469 1,508 2,226 64 744 691

Comprehensive Income

Total Comprehensive Income 16 469 1,508 2,226 64 744 691

Minority Interest 0 7

PAT to CS 16 469 1,508 2,227 64 744 684

Number of Shares 33.9 45 56.5 1,161.40 22.5 148.5 105.5

EPS 0.5 10.4 26.7 1.9 2.8 5 6.5


Statement of Financial Position (Latest Financial Statements of Companies Listed under Cement Sector)

Sector: CEMENT 2015 2015-16 2016 2016 2015 2015-16 2015-16


Non-current Assets 885 3,571 3,532 12,741 1,027 5,551 6,386

Property, Plant and Equipment 86 1,853 3,353 11,776 1,027 4,951 6,338

Capital work in Progress 759 1,194 178 - - 465 47

Other Non-current Assets 40 523 0 965 - 134 -

Current Assets 1,276 2,675 6,657 8,238 3,531 8,609 4,458

Inventories 124 382 1,496 1,245 708 798 987

Trade Receivables 756 882 1,145 3,295 876 1,140 1,898

Other Current Assets 362 1,274 156 1 1,721 2,988 1,365

Cash and Cash Equivalents 34 138 3,860 3,697 226 3,683 208

Total Assets 2,161 6,246 10,189 20,980 4,559 14,160 10,844

Equity and Liabilities 2,161 6,246 10,189 20,980 4,559 14,160 10,844

Equity 507 3,319 5,592 15,372 794 6,725 4,348

Equity to CS 507 3,319 5,592 15,372 794 6,725 4,348

Share Capital 339 450 565 11,614 225 1,485 1,055

Share Premium 85 658 2,957 442

Other Equity Component 84 2,211 5,027 3,759 569 2,283 2,852

Non-Current Liabilities 581 288 750 2,371 451 714 2,301

Long Term Debt 563 3 236 129 1,585

Other Non-Current Liabilities - - 138 95 - - 300

Retirement Benefit Obligations (gratuity) 19 50 37 80 80 101

Deferred Tax Liability -1 235 575 2,276 135 504 316

Current Liabilities 1,073 2,639 3,847 3,236 3,314 6,721 4,194

Trade Payables 221 188 3,502 2,711 377 620 520

Short Term Loan 790 1,963 524 2,661 5,064 2,900

Other current Liabilities 62 489 345 1 276 1,037 774

Total Liabilities 1,654 2,927 4,597 5,607 3,765 7,435 6,495


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