Celebrating Our Progress – Confronting Our Challenges

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

Center for Enforcing Underage Drinking Laws 3rd Annual National Leadership ConferenceSeptember 19 – 22, 2002 – Dallas, Texas

Robert I. Reynolds, DirectorCenter for Policy Analysis and Training

Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation

Question:

Underage Drinking in the United States is:

A. At epidemic proportions

B. Steadily declining

ATOD consumption has declined over the past 20

years.Alcohol consumption is down.

Tobacco consumption is down.

Other Drug use is down.

Tobacco use has declined.

Age 1985 1998 Percent Reduction

12-17 29.4% 18.2% 38%

18-25 47.4% 41.6% 12%

26-34 54.7% 32.5% 40%

35-up 35.5% 25.1% 29%

All ages (1980-1994)

1980:

33.2%1994:

25.5%23%

Percent reductions in monthly tobacco use by age group (1985 to 1998)

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1983 1985 1987 1988 1990 1992 1994

Smokers account for a smaller percentage of the population.

Smokers as a percentage of US adult population, 1980-1994.

Illicit drug use has decreased.

Age 1979 1998 Percent Reduction

12-17 16.5% 9.9% 39%

18-25 38% 16.1% 58%

26-34 20.8% 7% 66%

35-up 2.8% 3.3% (18)%

Percent reductions in monthly illicit drug use by age group (1979 to 1998)

Alcohol consumption has decreased in the past 20 years...

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997

Beer Wine Spirits All beverages

Per capita consumption (gallons of ethanol) 1970-97

Alcohol consumption has decreased in the past 20 years... Reduction in per capita consumption

1980-1998 (gallons of pure ethanol)

1980 1998 Percent Reduction

Beer 1.38 1.25 9%

Wine 0.34 0.31 9%

Spirit 1.04 0.63 39%

All Beverages

2.76 2.19 21%

Percent Reduction: Monthly Alcohol Use, 1979-1998

Age 1979 1998 Percent Reduction

12-17 49.6% 19.6% 62%

18-25 75.1% 60.0% 20%

26-34 71.6% 60.9% 15%

35-up 59.7% 53.1% 11%

…and fewer youth are drinking now versus twenty

years ago.

Vehicle registrations have steadily increased …

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

Vehicle Registrations

…but traffic crashes and fatalities have

decreased.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Crashes Fatalities Alcohol-related fatalities

Absolute numbers of traffic crashes, fatalities, and alcohol related fatalities (1977-1999)

In particular, fewer fatalities

are alcohol-related.

25

30

35

40

45

Percent alcohol-related

Percentage traffic fatalities related to alcohol(1977-1999)

What these successes have in common:

• changes in Social Norms

• policy interventions

• deterrence and enforcement

Changes in Social Norms

Media Advocacy:

• “If you’re not in the news, you don’t exist”

• Media Advocacy is the strategic use of media to advance a social or public policy goal

• Media Advocacy is “Earned Media”

Policy Interventions

• To prevent underage drinking, policy interventions must focus on the Availability of alcohol to youth.

• Effective policies address the–Price–Place–Product–Promotion…

…of alcohol to youth

Deterrence and Enforcement

• Effective Deterrence requires the Perception of

• Certainty• Swiftness• Severity

• Active Enforcement is a Requirement for Effective Deterrence.

Drinking in America: Myths, Realities,

and Prevention Policy

Center for Enforcing the Underage Drinking Laws

(CEUDL)

CEUDL

Revised to reflect 1999 survey data

Myths about alcohol suggest alcohol is an “integral part of American life”.

CEUDL

“…the vast majority of consumers drink responsibly and in

moderation…”

From an industry website:

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.

Youth: Most young people do not drink.

Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies

to reduce alcohol-related harm.CEUDL

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.

CEUDL

Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.

CEUDL

51%

25%

12%7% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

0 1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 21 21+

Frequency of Drinking Among U.S. Adults 21 and Older(past 30 days)

Most adults do not drink at a hazardous level.

CEUDL

51%

29%

6%

14%Nondrinker

Nonbingers

Infrequent Bingers

Frequent Bingers

Drinking Patterns among U.S. Adults 21 and Older(past 30 days)

Alcohol sales depend on the heaviest drinkers.

CEUDL

6%14%

29%

50%

33%

17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

FrequentBingers

InfrequentBingers

Non-bingers

Population

Alcohol

Alcohol Consumed by Drinking Pattern Among Adult Drinkers

(past 30 days)

Binge drinkers are 20% of the population, but consume 83% of the

alcohol.

CEUDL

20%

83%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Population Alcohol

Binge Drinkers

CEUDL

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

Youth: Most young people do not drink.

Most young people do not drink.

CEUDL

15- to 17-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds

Drinking occasions

0 1 to 4 5 or more

Drinking Among Youth(past 30 days)

94%

12- to 14-year-olds

17%

75%

8%

52%

25%

23%

Youth who do drink tend to drink heavily.

CEUDL0 At least 1

Binge Drinking Occasions:

49%35% 29%

65% 71%

51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

12- to 14- year-olds

15- to 17- year-olds

18- to 20- year-olds

Drinking Patterns Among Youth Who Drink(past 30 days)

Young bingers consume the majority of the

alcohol for their age group.

CEUDL

15- to 17-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds

Nonbingers Infrequent Bingers

Frequent Bingers

Percentage of Drinks Consumed by Drinking Pattern Among Underage Drinkers

94%

12- to 14-year-olds

34%

62%

4%

26%

70%

4%

45%

12- to 14-year-olds

8%

47%

Fewer youth drink, compared to adults.

CEUDL

6%25%

48% 49%

94%75%

52% 51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12- to 14-year-olds

15- to 17-year-olds

18- to 20-year-olds

Adults

Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days)

Nondrinkers Drinkers

Young drinkers tend to drink more heavily than adult drinkers.

CEUDL

Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days)

Nonbingers Bingers

51%65% 71%

41%

49%35% 29%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12- to 14-year-olds

15- to 17-year-olds

18- to 20-year-olds

Adults

Policy Interventions

• To prevent underage drinking, policy interventions must focus on the Availability of alcohol to youth.

• Effective policies address the–Price–Place–Product–Promotion…

…of alcohol to youth

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies

to reduce alcohol-related harm.

CEUDL

Alcohol is cheap and becoming cheaper.

CEUDL

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

1970 1980 1990 1997

Rel

ativ

e P

rice

(19

70=

$1.0

0) Alcohol

CPI

Non-Alcohol

Price of Alcoholic Beverages versus Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Consumer Price Index

Most Americans support an increase in taxes on alcohol.

CEUDL

82%

18%

Favor

Oppose

Increase alcohol tax by 5 cents to fund prevention programs?

Americans are bombarded with $4 billion in alcohol marketing every year.

CEUDL

New alcohol products cater to youthful tastes and may promote underage

drinking.

CEUDL

Alcopops appeal to younger drinkers.

Most Americans support restrictions on alcohol advertising.

CEUDL

79%

21%

Favor

Oppose

Restrict alcohol ads to make drinking less appealing to youth?

Alcohol is one of the most readily available consumer products.

CEUDL

Most Americans support compliance check programs.

CEUDL

66%

34%Favor

Oppose

Conduct compliance checks to reduce illegal sales to minors?

Most Americans support keg registration laws.

CEUDL

61%

39% Favor

Oppose

Require registration of beer kegs?

Most Americans support restrictions on drinking in public locations.

CEUDL

010203040506070

Ban Drinking By Permit Only No restrictions

Percent of U.S. population (18+) favoring restrictions on drinking in public locations

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.

Youth: Most young people do not drink.

Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies

to reduce alcohol-related harm.CEUDL

The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.

CEUDL

Youth who drink tend to drink heavily, putting them at high risk of serious harm.

In Order to Continue Our Progress and to Confront Our Challenges

We Must:

– Utilize Media Advocacy to change Social Norms.

– Adopt Policies impacting the Price, Place, Product, and Promotion of alcohol availability to youth.

– Increase Deterrence and Enforcement.