ceet annual conference 28 october 2011 the contribution of vet to a more inclusive australia tom...
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CEET Annual Conference28 October 2011
The contribution of VET to a more inclusive Australia
Tom Karmel
The value of completion VET qualification rates are terrible But, does it matter......
► yes it does Does this have anything to do with social
inclusion► yes it does
Outline Model the pay-off to completion Identify the groups with the highest pay-offs Relate the pay-offs to intention to complete
and completion Think about the implications
Outcome variables employed after training further study after training employed or further study after training improved employment circumstances after
training occupational status after training wages after training
Methodology Run separate models for graduates and
module completers Predict outcomes for every individual,
assuming that they are graduate/module completer
Pay-off=graduate outcome/module completer outcome
Simplification Focus on
► employment after training► study after training► wages for full-time workers (after training)
Employed after training
ActualPayoff
0
1
2
3
4
t
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Further study
ActualPayoff
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
t
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Salary full timeActualPayoff
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
t
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Summary of pay-offs after trainingAverage pay-off (%) %>0
Employed 21.7 95.6
Further study 122.7 97.7
Employed or further study
28.2 99.9
Improved employment 34.8 95.1
Salary (FT) 0.3 60.7
Salary (PT) 14.3 73.5
Occupational status 2.3 58.9
Employment status after trainingPopulation
pay-off = 21.7%
Unemployedpay-off=
32%
Other; Businesspay-off=
14.6%
Other Service
s; Commu
nity Service
s; Technic
alpay-
off=47.9%
Not in labour force
pay-off=108.3.8%
Diploma & Higher
; Cer
t III/IV
pay-off =
65.1%
Year 12pay
-off=
96.9%
<Year 12 &
Cert
I/IIpay
-off= 134.1%
Employedpay-off= 2.8%
Further StudyPopulation
pay-off =122.7%
Employedpay-off=
99%Diploma & abovepay
-off=
57.6%
Cert III & IV
pay-
off=
93.9%
Cert I
& IIpay
-off= 141.5%
Unemployedpay-off= 158.1%
Not in labour force
pay-off=217.5%
Diploma &
above; Cert III
& IVpay-off=
172.3%
Cert I/II
pay-off=
274.7%
Salary full timePopulation
pay-off =0.3%
Cert I & IIpay-off=-0.6%
Cert III & IVpay-off=
1.8%Employedpay
-off=
0.3%
Not in Labour force
pay-
off=
7.0%
Unemployedpay
-off=
8.3%
Diploma & above
pay-off=6.6%
Employedpay-off=
4.9%
Not in Labour force; Unemployedpay-off
= 13.7%
Summary It pays to complete in respect of employment
or further study For employment, pay-off is highest for those
not employed before training For further study, pay-off is huge, and highest
for cert I/II, and depends on employment status before training
Those doing diplomas, or a cert III & not employed before, get higher wages by completing
The link with completion Question. Are those who benefit more from
completion more likely to complete? Answer. No. Question. Are those who benefit more from
completion more likely to intend to complete? Answer. No.
Probability to complete
Estimated Probability
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
t
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Probability to completePopulation
84.9%
Part Time
74.9%Personal
reasons
69.5%
Employment
76.4%
Further study
74.0%
Full Time
99.6%
Probability of intending to completeEstimated Probability
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.70
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
t
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Probability of intending to complete
Population
95%
Part Time
91.6%
Other
77.2%
Other
Service
s
87.1%
Business;
Technical
93.1%
Communit
y Service
s
95.4%
Full Time
97.2%
Correlations with prob of completionPay-off to:
Employment after training -.08
Full-time study after training -.23
Salary for full-time employment after training -.08
Intending to complete .58
Correlations with intention to completePay off to:
Employment after training .04
Further study after training -.33
Salary for full-time employment after training 0.14
Modelling the probability of completionVariable Estimate
Intercept -0.16
Probability that student intends to complete 1.03
Satisfaction with training 0.008
Final comments Our analysis is helpful in specifying groups
for performance indicators. Gives an insight into where public funds
should go? Low completion rates do need to be
addressed.► payment on completions?