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CDMA and LTECDMA and LTETechnical & Commercial Implications ofTechnical & Commercial Implications of
InteroperabilityInteroperability
Dallas, TXNovember 2009
James PersonJames PersonCOOCOO
CDMA Development GroupCDMA Development Group
2www.cdg.org
To lead the rapid evolution and deployment of 3G and 4G systems, based on open standards and
encompassing all core architectures, to meet the needs of markets around the world
Information Distribution Technical Service Development Deployment Assistance
CDG CharterCDG Charter
OperatorsSubscriberEquipment
Network Infrastructure
Network Enhancement/ Optimization
Network Interface & Access
Formed in 1993, a consortium of operator and vendor companies frFormed in 1993, a consortium of operator and vendor companies from om around the world, involved in all aspects of CDMA and next generaround the world, involved in all aspects of CDMA and next generation ation
wireless including advocacy, marketing, regulatory support, deviwireless including advocacy, marketing, regulatory support, device ce availability and roaming availability and roaming
Value-AddedServices
2www.cdg.org
More than 315 315 operators in more than 109109 countries/territories have deployed or are planning to deploy CDMA2000
CDMA: 502 Million Global SubscribersCDMA: 502 Million Global Subscribers
CDMA2000 will continue to be an LTE interoperability option for CDMA2000 will continue to be an LTE interoperability option for hundreds of operators well into the next decadehundreds of operators well into the next decade
2www.cdg.org
New CDMA2000 Operators per YearNew CDMA2000 Operators per Year(Cumulative)(Cumulative)
Most CDMA2000 operators have not yet Most CDMA2000 operators have not yet planned for their 4G networksplanned for their 4G networks
Number of CDMA2000 operators increased by nearly 30% in the pastNumber of CDMA2000 operators increased by nearly 30% in the past 3 years3 yearsCDMA Global Operator GrowthCDMA Global Operator Growth
2www.cdg.org
(Millions)
Sources: Average of ABI (Q4’08), Yankee (Q4’08), Gartner (Dec’08), IDC (Dec’08), IMS (Dec’08), iSuppli (Oct’08)
Ann
ual D
evic
e S
hipm
ents
Global CDMA2000 Device Shipments Global CDMA2000 Device Shipments CDMA2000 device shipments are shifting to CDMA2000 device shipments are shifting to ““broadbandbroadband””
Annual CDMA2000 Device ShipmentsAnnual CDMA2000 Device ShipmentsAs of December 2008As of December 2008
More than 2,300 CDMA200 devices have been More than 2,300 CDMA200 devices have been commercialized by 120 supplierscommercialized by 120 suppliers
2www.cdg.org
Global CDMA2000 Subscriber ForecastGlobal CDMA2000 Subscriber Forecast
*Source: Actual CDMA Development Group**Source: Net growth average of Strategy Analytics (Jun 2008), ABI (Aug 2008), Wireless Intelligence (Jul 2008), WCIS+ (Jul 2008),
iGR (Mar 2008) and Yankee Group (Jun 2008) for subscriber forecasts (2008 and beyond) summed with CDG actual numbers of 2008
CDMA2000 migration from 2G (cdmaOne) completeCDMA2000 migration from 2G (cdmaOne) complete
CDMA2000 Subscribers WorldwideCDMA2000 Subscribers Worldwide(Cumulative)(Cumulative)
Subscribers(Millions)
cdmaOnecdmaOne
1X1X
EVEV--DODO
2www.cdg.org
• Meet the growing demand for voice and data
• Offer an unsurpassed user experience
• Reduce the cost of delivering services
• Maximize the return on existing investments while preparing for the future
What do operators want?
2www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 RoadmapCDMA2000 Roadmap
DL: 2.4 MbpsUL: 153 kbps
(1.25 MHz, FDD)
DL: 3.1 MbpsUL: 1.8 Mbps
(1.25 MHz, FDD)
4X increasein voice capacity2
DL & UL: 307 kbps
CDMA2000 RoadmapCDMA2000 RoadmapCDMA2000 offers a strong longCDMA2000 offers a strong long--term path forwardterm path forward
DL: 14.7 Mbps4
UL: 5.4 Mbps(5 MHz, FDD)
DL: 32 Mbps5
UL: 12.4 Mbps(4x1.25 MHz, FDD)
DL: 9.3 Mbps3
UL: 5.4 Mbps(5 MHz, FDD)
DO Advanced
1X Advanced
H/WUpgradeRev B
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013+
New Channel Card
1 Capacity increase is primarily due to new EVRC-B codec, handset interference cancellation (QLIC) and Quasi-Orthogonal Functions (QOF)2 Capacity increase is primarily due to UL and DL interference cancellation, mobile receive diversity and several radio link enhancements.3 Peak rate for 3 EV-DO carriers with software upgrade. Doubles network capacity or triples peak data speeds. 4 Peak rate for 3 EV-DO carriers with hardware upgrade supporting 64 QAM in the DL. Standard supports up to 15 aggregated 1.25 MHz carriers5 DO Advanced includes smart network techniques, new device enhancements, 2x2 MIMO support, 64 QAM in the DL and 16 QAM in the UL6 Operators have the option to only implement software upgrades
1xEV-DO Rev. A
1xEV-DORel. 0
1.5X increasein voice capacity1
DL & UL: 153 kbps
33-40 ErlangsDL & UL: 153 kbps
(1.25 MHz, FDD)
EVRC-B + QLIC + QOF
1XEnhancements
CDMA2000 1X
Multi-Carrier
EV-DO
2www.cdg.org
Achievable Today
1X Advanced1X AdvancedNew handset & channel card
1X Today• EVRC• Single RX
• EVRC-B vocoder• QLIC (device IC)
New handsetNetwork upgrades
4xVoice users
xVoice users
1.5xVoice users
Relative capacity/sector (1.25 MHz)
Without MobileRx Diversity
With Mobile Rx Diversity
3xVoice users
+Radio linkEnhancements• Efficient power control• Early termination• Smart blanking
Interference Cancellation• BTS Interference Cancellation• Advanced Device IC (QLIC)
Quadruples the voice capacity of todayQuadruples the voice capacity of today’’s industrys industry--leading CDMA2000 1X networksleading CDMA2000 1X networks
CDMA2000 1X Advanced is a natural step for operators looking to CDMA2000 1X Advanced is a natural step for operators looking to lower their cost per call and provide voice service while LTE folower their cost per call and provide voice service while LTE focuses on datacuses on data
2www.cdg.org
EVEV--DO is Driving Data Revenue GrowthDO is Driving Data Revenue GrowthDemand for broadband services is driving substantial data revenuDemand for broadband services is driving substantial data revenue per usere per user
1 Commercial EV-DO market information based on Verizon press releases and other publicly available information, July 24, 2009
Ave
rage
Rev
enue
Per
Use
r (A
RPU
) 1
RetailData ARPU
(USD)
Percent ofService Revenue
Verizon WirelessVerizon WirelessRetail Data ARPU and
Data Revenue as a Percent of Service Revenue
Annual data revenues grew 33 percent over the prior year to $3.9 billion.45.5 million of Verizon’s subscribers have 3G broadband EV-DO devices.
2www.cdg.org
CDMA and OFDMACDMA and OFDMACDMA and OFDMA are different technologies with different capabilCDMA and OFDMA are different technologies with different capabilitiesities
CDMA2000 1X and EVCDMA2000 1X and EV--DO are more efficient in DO are more efficient in bandwidths up to 5 MHzbandwidths up to 5 MHz
OFDMAOFDMA--based solutions offers a simpler implementation inbased solutions offers a simpler implementation inbandwidths greater than 10 MHzbandwidths greater than 10 MHz
2www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 and OFDMCDMA2000 and OFDM--Based SolutionsBased SolutionsCDMA2000 is complemented with several OFDMCDMA2000 is complemented with several OFDM--based solutionsbased solutions
CDMA2000 1X
CDMA2000 Evolution PathCDMA2000 Evolution Path
OFDMAOFDMA--based Technologiesbased TechnologiesLTE
1X Advanced
1xEV-DO Rel. 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013+
1xEV-DORev. A
H/\WUpgrade
Rev. BMulticarrier
EV-DODO Advanced
LTE is part of the CDMA2000 technology roadmapLTE is part of the CDMA2000 technology roadmap
2www.cdg.org
CDGCDG’’s Role in the Standards Processs Role in the Standards Process
CDG is a Market Representation Partner CDG is a Market Representation Partner (MRP) to both(MRP) to both
3GPP and 3GPP23GPP and 3GPP2
Source: IDC
2www.cdg.org
The following CDMA2000 operators have announced their plansThe following CDMA2000 operators have announced their plansto deploy LTEto deploy LTE
CDMA Operators with Announced LTE plansCDMA Operators with Announced LTE plans
Most other CDMA2000 operators do not yet have the requisiteMost other CDMA2000 operators do not yet have the requisitedemand, spectrum or capital to deploy LTEdemand, spectrum or capital to deploy LTE
2www.cdg.org
LTE Interoperability: CDG Areas of FocusLTE Interoperability: CDG Areas of Focus
Seamless Mobility:To ensure service continuity, inter-standard hand-offs between LTE and CDMA2000 networks is essential
System Determination:To maximize revenue, the appropriate system determination algorithms must exist in every CDMA2000/LTE device
Device Availability and Certification:To ensure full compliance, device requirements by GHRC are defined and device certification from an independent third-party, CCF, is sanctioned
Inter-Standard Global Roaming:To enable global roaming, inter-standard roaming between LTE and CDMA2000 networks is essential
Current CDG initiativesCurrent CDG initiatives
2www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 Manufacturers Working on LTECDMA2000 Manufacturers Working on LTEThe following CDG members are developing LTE devices and equipmeThe following CDG members are developing LTE devices and equipmentnt
Infrastructure Vendors
Chipset and Device Vendors
Test Vendors
2www.cdg.org
OFDMA Broadband Overlay for Developed OFDMA Broadband Overlay for Developed MarketMarketOFDMOFDM--based solutions will be builtbased solutions will be built--out over time as demand grows and spectrum out over time as demand grows and spectrum becomes availablebecomes available
3G CDMA WAN networks will coexist with OFDM3G CDMA WAN networks will coexist with OFDM--based solutions until based solutions until next generation broadband networks are fully capable of deliverinext generation broadband networks are fully capable of delivering:ng:
1)1) Ubiquitous coverageUbiquitous coverage2)2) CarrierCarrier--grade VoIPgrade VoIP3)3) LowLow--cost devices *cost devices *4)4) Global roaming *Global roaming *
* Harmonization of spectrum for OFDM-based solutions will be necessary to build economies of scale and enable global roaming
3G CDMA3G CDMA 3G CDMA 3G CDMA
3G CDMA 3G CDMA WAN CoverageWAN Coverage
Today
Next 10 years(Coexistence)
Beyond 10 years?(Migration)
OFDMUrban-zone
OFDMAOFDMAWAN CoverageWAN Coverage
OFDMUrban-zone
OFDMUrban-zone
2www.cdg.org
EVEV--DO Evolution PeriodsDO Evolution Periods
EV-DORev. A
EV-DORev. B
LTEFirst Full ScaleDeployments
DOAdvanced
LTEFirst Volume
DevicesLTE
First SmallVolumes
MatureEV-DO
Today 2010-2011 2012 2015
% o
f Add
ress
able
Mar
ket
Mature VoIP;Concurrent VoIP/Data;High-Definition Multimedia;Integration w/LTE
SeamlessLTE Handoff
Additional CapacityFemtocellsVoIP
UbiquitousEV-DO Service
2017
LTERegional
Deployments
Source: Airvana`
2www.cdg.org
DellPrecision Series
RIM BlackBerry8830
CDMA2000 1X+
EV-DO Rev. A+
GSM+
GPRSNokia2865
LGSH-100
CDMA2000 1X+
EV-DO Rev. A+
HSPA
CDMA2000 1X+
GSM +
GPRS
EV-DO Rev. A+
HSPA
CDMA2000 WorldModeTM DevicesMore than 200 WorldMode devices from more than 57 vendorsMore than 200 WorldMode devices from more than 57 vendors
Samples shown, LTE WorldMode is concept only
What ComesNext?
Coming!
CDMA2000 1X+
EV-DO Rev. A/B+
LTE
2www.cdg.org
Initial WorldMode LTE Device AvailabilityInitial WorldMode LTE Device AvailabilityCDMA industry is developing CDMA2000 / LTE multimode/multiband dCDMA industry is developing CDMA2000 / LTE multimode/multiband devicesevices
Modes: • LTE• CDMA2000 1X• EV-DO Rev. A• EV-DO Rev. B• UMTS• HSPA+
HandsetPC Card
LTE Peak Data Rates (20 MHz):DL: 50 MbpsUL: 25 Mbps
Q220112009
Multimode LTECommercial Device Availability
Q4 2010
2www.cdg.org
What about LTE voice communicationsWhat about LTE voice communicationsMost CDMA2000 operators will rely on their CDMA2000 1X network tMost CDMA2000 operators will rely on their CDMA2000 1X network to deliver voiceo deliver voice
LTE only for voice and data?Or, LTE for data and 1X for traditional voice?
Factors to consider:How important is simultaneous voice & data?
How important is an all-IP service model?Should voice capacity be maximized?
CAPEX spending priorities? Handset complexity?Roaming Partners?
Timing?
LTE VoIP?
1X Advanced?
TraditionalC/S 1X Voice?
EV-DO VoIP?
2www.cdg.org
1G1G
2G2G
Migration TimelineMigration TimelineWith an increasing number of subscribers, the migration process With an increasing number of subscribers, the migration process is lengtheningis lengthening
Putting things into perspective.The generational migration process will take many years.
Voice will remain a key application.
Migration of SubscribersMigration of Subscribers
199519901985 2000 2005 20132010
2G subs exceed 1G subs –Roughly 15 years after inception of industry.
Growth of 2G peaks3G3G
4G4G
Source: Net growth average of Strategy Analytics (Jun 2008), ABI (Aug 2008), Wireless Intelligence (Jul 2008), WCIS+ (Jul 2008), iGR (Mar 2008) and Yankee Group (Jun 2008) for subscriber forecasts (2008 and beyond) summed with CDG actual numbers of 2008
2www.cdg.org
Lessons Learned: Migration from 1G to 2G to 3GLessons Learned: Migration from 1G to 2G to 3G
• Takes longer, and is never as simple as it may seem
• Coverage is key
• Multimode devices are essential
• Economies of scale matters
• Graceful evolutionary change is preferred
• A mature ecosystem is desired
To sustain its exponential growth, To sustain its exponential growth, the global mobile industry should continue strengthening and the global mobile industry should continue strengthening and
expanding its existing ecosystem, while it embraces and assimilaexpanding its existing ecosystem, while it embraces and assimilates tes newer technologies and players within its foldnewer technologies and players within its fold
Source: IDC