C5 FMU FIRE REGIME ANALYSIS

Marie-Pierre Rogeau, M.Sc.Wildland Disturbance Consulting

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• Study area• Research objectives• Overview of methods Used• Recent fire regime (1950 – 2003)• Historical fire regime• Recent fire mapping• Fire regime modeling• Field results from K. Country

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

• To identify the number of fire regimes on the landscape (how homogeneous the fire regime really is)

• To determine the age-class distribution & NRV

• To determine fire size distribution

• To determine the spatial NRV of the fire cycle

OVERVIEW OF METHODS USED

• Recent fire regime approach– Fire occurrence database: 1950 – 2003– Lightning strike database: 1990 – 2003– Probability of ignition model

• Historical fire regime approach– 1950 aerial photography screening by watershed of

several fire regime parameters such as: veg. complexity, no. of fires, TSF, max. forest age

• Recent fire mapping1950 photographs to map fires from 1930-1950

• Fire regime modeling approach– Fire regime knowledge, FBP fuel map, real fire weather

data, p. of ignition map, p. of burning map

STUDY AREA

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

Porcupine HillsCastleContinental Divide S.LivingstoneContinental Divide N.

RECENT FIRE REGIME

0

50

100

150

200

250

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Peoplefires

Lightningfires

• 25% lightning• 75% anthropogenic• 53% from recreational

users• Greatest number of ha

burned are in July and August

• Fire cycle between 1950 and 2002: 1,887 years or 144 ha/yr

• Fire cycle with 2003 fires: 402 years or 676 ha/yr (0.25% of forested area)

RECENT FIRE REGIME

Ignition type P. Hills Castle C.D.S Living. C.D.N

Lightning 36.94 20.67 17.56 15.25 9.89

People 23.16 20.52 20.65 20.63 15.50

All 27.42 20.57 19.69 18.96 13.76

% Area of C5 11.20 15.35 18.85 43.43 11.16

Metres

25000.00

1-10 strikes11-1516-2021-30> 30

Avg. Yearly Lightning Strike Density

RECENT FIRE REGIME

• Cross-tabulation results show that lightning strike density is a poor indicator of lightning fire occurrence.

• This map was not included in the p. of ignition model.

RECENT FIRE REGIME

• Density of lightning caused fires (40%).

• Natural subregions (30%).

• Elevation (20%)– 70% of fires between 1400m

and 1800m

• Aspect (10%)– Very little variation among

aspect classes

HISTORICAL FIRE REGIME

• Air photo screening by watershed (84)• Vegetation complexity• Total number of fires• Number of fires since 1900• Estimate of T-S-F• Estimate of oldest age• MFRI• Valley orientation• Fuel continuity (continuous/broken)

HISTORICAL FIRE REGIME 7

689

1011

54

15 1216

3171

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

Very LowLowModerateHighVery High

Vegetation complexity

Total no. of fires Recent fires

768

910

11

54

15 1216

3171

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

< 2 f ires3 - 5 f ires6 - 10 f ires11 - 15 f ires15+ fires

768

910

11

54

15 12163171

2 1814 13

1921

20 2223

24 2526

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

01234

Time-since-fire Max. age

768

910

11

54

15 1216

3171

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

< 25 years26 - 5051 - 7576 - 100101 - 125

768

910

11

54

15 1216

3171

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

150 years200250300350+

MFRI Valley Orientation

768

910

11

54

15 12163171

2 1814 13

1921

20 2223

24 2526

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

1 - 9 years10 - 1920 - 2930 - 3940 - 4950 - 59

768

910

11

54

15 1216

3171

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

Main NW-SEMain NE-SWMain N-SMain E-WNW-SE/NE-SWNW-SE/N-SNW-SE/E-WNE-SW/NW-SENE-SW/N-SNE-SW/E-WN-S/NE-SWN-S/NW-SEN-S/E-WE-W/NW-SEE-W/NE-SWE-W/N-S

NSR vs FUEL CONTINUITY

768

910

11

54

15 12163171

2 1814 13

1921

20 2223

24 2526

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

31

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

8454 83

5556 5760

58

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

RM - AlpineRM - Sub-AlpineRM - MontaneParkland - FoothillsGrassland - Foot. Fescue

768

910

11

54

15 1216

317

2 1814 13

19 2120 22

2324 25

26

27

28

4243

46

4745

44

393841

40

374849

3332

2930

82 34

35 36 50

51 525361

54 8356 57

6058

6263

6459

6566

67 68

69 70

78

71

7273

74757677

798081

1

31

8455

NorthGrid

Metres

25000.00

Broken fuelContinuous fuel

NSR vs FUEL CONTINUITY

Fire Variable NSRFuel ContinuityComplexity 0.49 0.86Total fires 0.43 0.71TSF 0.43 0.75MFRI 0.45 0.8Max age 0.52 0.84

Cramer’s V measure of association

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

• Fire regime is not spatially homogeneous• Veg. complexity linked to fuel continuity and

not an E. to W. elevation gradient as observed in K. Country

• Fuel continuity map a good surrogate to map fire regimes rather than NSR

• 5 mngt subregions map is a good substitute to map fire regimes in greater details

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS

• P. Hills has the most unique fire regime followed by the CDN

• Both Castle and the CDS are similar enough to be treated equally

• Livingstone shares similar fire regime elements with all other subregions, which makes it unique

• Regions of high to very high veg. complexity and high number of fires tend to coincide with regions of low probabilities of lightning ignition. This means that the historical fire regime had to be driven by anthropogenic sources of fire

1

2

3

4 5

6

7

8 9 10

111213

1314

15 16

17 18

19

Metres

20000.00

RECENT FIRE MAPPING

• Calculation of fire cycle for a period that was less impacted by fire suppression: 1930-1950.

• Fires mapped for the subalpine nsr.

• Fire cycle of 85 years or 2,400 ha/yr or 1.18% of forested area

FIRE REGIME MODELING: DATA INPUTS

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

C1C2C3C4C7D1/D2M1/M2O1aWaterNF

FIRE REGIME MODELING: DATA INPUTSB1

B2HB

SLLV

C1PL

BQ

IS

CB

C2

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

Livingstone - C1Ironstone - ISWillow Creek - B2Porcupine - PLCarbondale - CBCastle - C2Blairmore - BQ

FIRE REGIME MODELING: DATA INPUTSNorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

01122334556677889100111122134145156167178

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

06121723293540465258636975818692

FIRE REGIME MODELING: DATA OUTPUTS

• Stand origin map• Fire count map• Age-class distribution + NRV• Accurate fire cycle + NRV• Fire size distribution

FIRE REGIME MODELING: DATA OUTPUTSStand Origin Fire Count

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

1-2020-4040-6060-8080-100100-120120-140140-160160-180180-200200-220220-240240-260260-280280-300300-500500-10001000+

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

023568911121415171820212324

FIRE CYCLE MODEL RESULTS

Sub Montane CDN Living. CDS Castle P.Hills

Avg FC 116 92 145 115 64 84 n/a

Std Dev 23 16 38 22 16 25

NRV FC 93-139 76-108 107-183 93-137 48-80 59-109

Shortest FC 70 60 80 70 40 40

Longest FC 190 150 270 170 110 160

Forested area 269,425 222,959 33,067 147,225 59,758 47,582 39,414

Annual area (ha/yr) 2,320 2,433 229 1,280 935 564

Avg dist. rate (%/yr) 0.86 1.09 0.69 0.87 1.56 1.19

NRV dist rate (ha) 1,938-2,8272,064-2,937 181-3091,075-1,583 747-1,245 437-807

Min dist. rate (ha) 1,418 1,486 123 866 543 297

Max dist. rate (ha) 3,849 3,716 413 2,103 1,494 1,190

NorthGrid

Metres

20000.00

Boreal - Dry Mix.RM - AlpineRM - Sub-AlpineRM - MontaneFoothills - UpperFoothills - LowerParkland - FoothillsParkland - CentralGrassland - Foot. Fescue

FIELD RESULTS K. COUNTRY

FIELD RESULTS K. COUNTRY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

• FMF for project funding

• ASRD for technical support– Kevin Quintilio– Dave Coish– Bev Wilson