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CBS NEWS POLL For release: Sunday October 11, 2015

10:30 am EDT

The 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015

Donald Trump (27%) remains in the lead in the race for the Republican nomination, with Ben Carson (21%) in second place.

Carson and Trump have the highest favorable ratings among Republican primary voters, but Trump – along with Jeb Bush -- also has the highest unfavorable rating. Jeb Bush’s favorable rating has dropped 11 points since August.

Among registered voters overall, Trump is viewed more negatively; 53% are unfavorable.

Carson receives strong assessments from Republican primary voters on being honest and caring, while Trump continues to be seen as the strongest leader.

The Race for the Nomination Donald Trump continues to lead the field nationally in the race to become the Republican nominee for president. 27% of Republican primary voters support Trump, giving him a six point lead over his closest competitor, neurosurgeon Ben Carson (21%). The rest of the Republican field is in single digits, with Texas Senator Ted Cruz inching up into third place with 9%, followed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 8%. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush follow at 6% each. Former Governor Mike Huckabee has also slipped considerably since the summer, from 8% in August to just 2% today.

2016 Republican Nomination for President (Among Republican primary voters)

Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 27% 27% 24% Ben Carson 21 23 6 Ted Cruz 9 5 6

Marco Rubio 8 6 6 Jeb Bush 6 6 13 Carly Fiorina 6 4 *

Rand Paul 4 3 4 Chris Christie 3 1 3 Mike Huckabee 2 6 8 John Kasich 2 3 1 Rick Santorum 1 1 1 Bobby Jindal * * 2 George Pataki * * 1 Lindsey Graham -- * * Jim Gilmore -- -- 1 Don’t know 11 9 9

*Less than 0.5%

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When Republican voters are asked who would be their second choice for the nomination, Ben Carson (20%) and Marco Rubio (18%) are the most mentioned candidates. Among Trump supporters, Carson is the top second choice, far ahead of any other candidate.

Seven in ten Republican primary voters would support Trump if he became the party’s eventual nominee, though many would have reservations. 29% would support Trump enthusiastically, while 42% would support him with reservations, and another 8% would only support him because he is the party’s nominee. One in five Republican primary voters would not support Trump if he became the nominee.

If Trump is Republican Nominee, Would You… (among Republican primary voters)

Total Trump Support Other Voters Supporters Candidate

Support him enthusiastically 29% 67% 18% Support him with reservations 42 32 45 Support because he’s the nominee 8 1 12 Would not support him 19 * 25 *Less than 0.5%

Trump continues to be viewed as the most electable candidate in a general election. 35% say Trump has the best chance of winning in November 2016, followed by Ben Carson (18%).

Best Chance of Winning in November 2016 (among Republican primary voters)

Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 35% 39% 26% Ben Carson 18 18 1 Marco Rubio 11 5 4 Jeb Bush 10 11 23 Carly Fiorina 7 * -- Ted Cruz 5 4 4

(Table has been truncated. Not all candidates are listed)

Views of the Candidates Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Fiorina are all viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican primary voters. At 62%, favorable views of Ben Carson are the highest of this group, only 7% are unfavorable. 53% have a favorable view of Donald Trump, and 50% have a positive assessment of Marco Rubio. While Trump’s unfavorable rating is more than twice that of either Rubio or Fiorina, many don’t have an opinion of the latter two candidates. Former Governor Jeb Bush is now viewed more unfavorably (38%) than favorably (32%) by Republican primary voters.

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Views of the Republican Candidates (Among Republican Primary Voters)

Favorable Not Favorable Undecided/haven’t heard Ben Carson 62% 7 30 Donald Trump 53% 29 18 Marco Rubio 50% 12 38 Carly Fiorina 45% 13 40 Jeb Bush 32% 38 30 While the favorable ratings of both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have risen slightly since August among Republican primary voters, Bush’s favorable rating has dropped 11 points.

Favorable Views of the Republican Candidates

(Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 8/2015

Donald Trump 53% 47% Marco Rubio 50% 46% Jeb Bush 32% 43%

These Republican candidates are viewed less positively among all registered voters nationwide. Carson has the highest favorable rating among this broader group of voters, and Fiorina is viewed more favorably than not. Voters divide in their views of Rubio. Many voters overall don’t have an opinion of these three contenders. 53% of registered voters overall have an unfavorable opinion of Trump – the highest of the Republicans asked about. Bush is also viewed negatively.

Views of Republican Candidates (among registered voters)

Favorable Not favorable Undecided/Haven’t heard Ben Carson 34% 22 41 Donald Trump 28% 53 19 Marco Rubio 27% 25 46 Carly Fiorina 26% 21 51 Jeb Bush 20% 48 30

Assessing the “Outsiders” on the Issues More Republican primary voters are very confident in Trump than in Carson or Fiorina to handle the economy and immigration. Few Republican primary voters are very confident in the ability of any of the three to handle an international crisis. Still, most Republican primary voters have at least some confidence in the abilities of all three candidates to handle these issues.

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Confident in These Candidates on the Issues (Among Republican Primary Voters)

Trump Carson Fiorina Economic decisions

Very 50% 31% 27% Somewhat 33 40 30 Not too/not at all 16 21 29 Don’t know 1 9 14

Decisions on illegal immigration Very 44% 33% 15% Somewhat 30 34 38 Not too/not at all 27 22 30 Don’t know * 11 16

Dealing with an international crisis Very 23% 23% 16% Somewhat 39 42 36 Not too/not at all 38 25 33 Don’t know 1 11 14 Candidate Qualities Republican primary voters choose honesty (39%) as the most important quality in their choice of a candidate, though nearly as many pick being a strong leader (36%). Far fewer choose caring about people like them (13%), having the right experience (8%), or being able to win the general election in November (2%) as most important.

Most Important Candidate Quality in Deciding Vote for Nomination (Among Republican Primary Voters)

Is honest and trustworthy 39% Is a strong leader 36 Cares about people like me 13 Has the right experience 8 Can win a general election 2

Ben Carson is the top choice of Republican primary voters who most value honesty, while Donald Trump is the top choice of those who value strong leadership. Most Republican primary voters give Trump, Carson, and Fiorina high marks on many of these candidate qualities, but Ben Carson is perceived as the most honest: 81% think he is honest and trustworthy, compared to 60% for Fiorina and 53% for Trump. 39% do not think Trump is honest and trustworthy, far more than either Carson or Fiorina.

Candidate Qualities: Honest and Trustworthy (Among Republican primary voters)

Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 53% 81% 60% No 39 7 21

Don’t know 8 12 19

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Ben Carson is also seen as the candidate who most cares about people like them. 56% think he cares a lot, more than twice as many as say the same for Trump or Fiorina.

Candidate Qualities: Cares about People Like You (Among Republican primary voters)

Trump Carson Fiorina A lot 26% 56% 24% Some 45 27 45 Not much/not at all 28 9 18 Don’t know 1 8 14 But Donald Trump is seen as the strongest leader: 84% think Trump has strong qualities of leadership, compared to 72% for Carson and 60% for Fiorina.

Candidate Qualities: Strong Leadership (Among Republican primary voters)

Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 84% 72% 60% No 14 16 21 Don’t know 2 12 19

Most think both Trump (59%) and Carson (53%) have the right kind of experience to be president, though they are less sure of Fiorina (43%).

Candidate Qualities: Experience (Among Republican primary voters)

Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 59% 53% 43% No 38 33 39 Don’t know 3 15 18 As for what the right kind of experience is, most Republican primary voters think it’s more important for the next President to have experience in the private sector (55%) than in politics or government (10%), though 34% say it doesn’t matter.

Type of Experience for Next President (Among Republican primary voters)

Business and the private sector 55% Politics and government 10 Doesn’t matter 34

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More Voters are Tuning In Voters are increasingly turning their attention to the presidential campaign. 42% now say they are paying a lot of attention, up from 36% last month. More are paying a lot of attention now, compared to this point in time in the last two presidential election cycles.

Paying Attention to the 2016 Presidential Campaign (among registered voters)

Now 9/2015 10/2011 10/2007 A lot 42% 36% 31% 24% Some 37 35 39 52 Not much 14 17 21 19 None at all 7 12 10 5

In addition, most voters find this campaign interesting. Seven in 10 say they do, including majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents. According to an October 2011 Pew Poll, just 40% of voters described the presidential campaign as interesting.

How Would You Describe the 2016 Presidential Campaign? (among registered voters)

Now 10/2011* Interesting 71% 40% Dull 25 49 *Pew Research Poll

When voters are asked in an open-ended question, which one issue they would like to hear the presidential candidates discuss, the economy and jobs (24%) is the top answer, followed by immigration (11%), and foreign policy (10%). Health care and guns are also mentioned. The economy and jobs are the top priority for voters across party lines. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to want the candidates to talk about immigration.

Issue You Most Want to Hear the Candidates Discuss (among registered voters)

Total Reps Dems Inds Economy and jobs 24% 26% 25% 21% Immigration 11 16 7 10 Foreign policy 10 13 8 8 Health care 6 7 4 7 Guns/laws/2nd amendment 4 4 6 2

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------- This poll was conducted by telephone October 4-8, 2015 among a random sample of 1,251 adults nationwide, including 1,038 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.

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The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. The margin of error for the sample of 419 Republican primary voters is 5 percentage points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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CBS NEWS POLL Republican Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015 Q12. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Sep15a1 % % % % % A lot 42 48 43 37 36 Some 37 40 38 33 35 Not much 14 7 11 21 17 No attention so far 7 4 8 8 12 Don't know/No answer * * * 1 1 Q12a. How would you describe the 2016 presidential election campaign so far--is it interesting to you, or would you say it is dull? Interesting 71 79 71 64 Dull 25 17 25 31 Neither (Vol.) 3 2 4 2 Don't know/No answer 2 2 1 2 Q13. Which ONE issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2016 presidential campaign? Economy & jobs 24 26 25 21 Immigration/illegal immigrants 11 16 7 10 Foreign policy/misc. foreign affairs 10 13 8 8 Health care 6 7 4 7 Guns/2nd amendment/ gun laws 4 4 6 2 Defense/military/national security 3 3 1 3 Poverty/ government programs for 2 * 2 2 Environment/global warming 2 - 5 2 Miscellaneous social issues 2 1 5 2 Education/school loans 2 - 3 3 Foreign aid/ isolationist attitudes 2 1 1 3 Miscellaneous government issues 2 2 1 2 Budget/deficit 2 2 * 5 Taxes/IRS/cut/raise taxes 2 3 1 1 Income gap 2 * 2 2 Other 16 16 19 18 Don't know/No answer 8 6 10 9 *Less than 0.5%

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Q14. Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Republican presidential primary or caucus, or a Democratic presidential primary or caucus or aren't you likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Sep15a1 % % % % % Republican primary 38 86 2 28 36 Democratic primary 33 2 84 19 33 Not likely to vote 17 7 7 32 17 Never vote (Vol.) * - - 1 * Don't know/No answer 12 5 7 20 14 Q15. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 % %

Donald Trump 27 27 Ben Carson 21 23 Ted Cruz 9 5 Marco Rubio 8 6 Jeb Bush 6 6 Carly Fiorina 6 4 Rand Paul 4 3 Chris Christie 3 1 Mike Huckabee 2 6 John Kasich 2 3 Rick Santorum 1 1 Bobby Jindal * * George Pataki * * Lindsey Graham - * Jim Gilmore - - Someone else (vol.) - 3 None of them (vol.) 2 4 Don't know/No answer 11 9 *Less than 0.5%

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Q16. Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for president?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE IN q15 Sep15a1 % % Ben Carson 20 19 Marco Rubio 18 7 Carly Fiorina 13 6 Donald Trump 11 12 Jeb Bush 7 9 Ted Cruz 6 12 Mike Huckabee 6 4 Chris Christie 5 4 Rand Paul 2 3 Lindsey Graham 1 * John Kasich 1 2 Bobby Jindal * 1 George Pataki * * Rick Santorum 1 - Jim Gilmore - 1 Someone else (vol.) * 7 None of them (vol.) 4 5 Don't know/No answer 4 8 Q17. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think has the best chance of winning the general election in November 2016?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 Donald Trump 35 39 Ben Carson 18 18 Marco Rubio 11 5 Jeb Bush 10 11 Carly Fiorina 7 * Ted Cruz 5 4 Chris Christie 2 2 Rand Paul 2 1 John Kasich 1 2 Lindsey Graham * * Mike Huckabee * 1 George Pataki * * Rick Santorum * * Jim Gilmore * - Bobby Jindal - - Someone else (vol.) - 3 None of them (vol.) 1 * Don't know/No answer 9 14

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Q18. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 % % Enthusiastically support 29 35 Support with reservations 42 36 Support only because nominee 8 12 No support 19 15 Don't know/No answer 1 2 Q27. We'd like to get your opinion of some public figures. For each of the following people, please say whether your opinion is favorable, not favorable, undecided, or whether you haven't heard enough about him or her yet to have an opinion. a. Jeb Bush

************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters Jul15e % % % % % % Favorable 20 35 11 16 32 30 Not favorable 48 34 63 49 38 40 Undecided 19 22 14 21 21 17 Haven't heard enough 11 9 11 13 9 12 Don't know/No answer 1 * 1 2 * 1 b. Marco Rubio Favorable 27 48 10 24 50 24 Not favorable 25 12 45 21 12 22 Undecided 15 11 13 21 12 12 Haven't heard enough 31 29 29 33 26 39 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 2 * 3 c. Donald Trump Favorable 28 51 7 26 53 27 Not favorable 53 31 81 48 29 59 Undecided 16 16 7 22 16 9 Haven't heard enough 3 2 4 3 2 4 Don't know/No answer 1 - 1 1 * 1

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d. Ben Carson

************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters % % % % % Favorable 34 59 12 32 62 Not favorable 22 9 41 18 7 Undecided 14 14 11 17 15 Haven't heard enough 27 17 33 31 15 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 2 1 e. Carly Fiorina Favorable 26 44 11 23 45 Not favorable 21 14 33 19 13 Undecided 13 12 11 15 11 Haven't heard enough 38 29 43 41 29 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 2 1 Q27aa. Which one of these candidate qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic/Republican nomination for president in 2016? Is honest and trustworthy 39 Is a strong leader 36 Cares about people like me 13 Has the right experience 8 Can win a general election 2 Don't know/No answer 1 Q21. Would you prefer the next president to be someone whose experience has been mostly in politics and government, or someone whose experience has been mostly in the business or private sector, or doesn't it matter to you? Mostly business or private sector 34 51 12 38 55 Mostly politics & government 28 12 51 23 10 Doesn't matter 36 36 35 36 34 Don't know/No answer 2 2 1 2 1

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Q34. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jul15e % % Very confident 50 47 Somewhat confident 33 24 Not too confident 8 9 Not at all confident 8 19 Don't know/No answer 1 1 Q35. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 23 Somewhat confident 39 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 20 Don't know/No answer 1 Q35a. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 44 39 Somewhat confident 30 26 Not too confident 13 9 Not at all confident 14 24 Don't know/No answer * 2 Q36. How confident are you in Ben Carson’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 31 Somewhat confident 40 Not too confident 14 Not at all confident 7 Don't know/No answer 9

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Q37. How confident are you in Ben Carson’s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS % Very confident 23 Somewhat confident 42 Not too confident 16 Not at all confident 9 Don't know/No answer 11 Q37a. How confident are you in Ben Carson’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 33 Somewhat confident 34 Not too confident 17 Not at all confident 5 Don't know/No answer 11 Q38. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 27 Somewhat confident 30 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 11 Don't know/No answer 14 Q39. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina’s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 16 Somewhat confident 36 Not too confident 19 Not at all confident 14 Don't know/No answer 14 Q39a. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 15 Somewhat confident 38 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 12 Don't know/No answer 16

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Q40. Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not? ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters Sep15a1 % % % % % % Honest and trustworthy 33 51 17 31 53 35 Not honest and trustworthy 60 42 79 60 39 55 Don't know/No answer 7 7 4 9 8 11 Q41. How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot 15 24 6 14 26 Some 28 44 12 28 45 Not much 17 16 18 17 14 Not at all 38 15 62 38 14 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 2 1 Q42. Do you think Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? Yes 35 56 12 35 59 No 62 42 86 60 38 Don't know/No answer 3 2 2 5 3 Q43. Do you think Donald Trump has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes, has 65 82 47 65 84 56 No, does not have 33 17 52 31 14 41 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 4 2 3 Q44. Do you think Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy 58 77 42 54 81 49 Not honest and trustworthy 18 7 32 17 7 16 Don't know/No answer 24 16 26 29 12 36 Q45. How much do you think Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot 33 53 16 28 56 Some 30 26 34 31 27 Not much 13 7 21 12 6 Not at all 9 3 14 9 3 Don't know/No answer 15 10 14 20 8

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Q46. Do you think Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters % % % % % Yes 33 49 17 33 53 No 44 34 63 39 33 Don't know/No answer 22 17 20 28 15 Q47. Do you think Ben Carson has strong qualities of leadership, or not?

Sep15a1 %

Yes, has 51 69 37 48 72 38 No, does not have 29 16 44 29 16 25 Don't know/No answer 20 16 19 24 12 37 Q48. Do you think Carly Fiorina is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy 39 57 24 36 60 Not honest and trustworthy 31 19 45 31 21 Don't know/No answer 29 23 31 34 19 Q49. How much do you think Carly Fiorina cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot 13 24 6 10 24 Some 39 43 34 39 45 Not much 16 8 23 17 10 Not at all 14 8 20 14 8 Don't know/No answer 18 17 18 19 14 Q50. Do you think Carly Fiorina has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? Yes 27 41 13 27 43 No 49 36 66 47 39 Don't know/No answer 24 22 21 26 18 Q52. Do you think Carly Fiorina has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes, has 44 58 28 45 60 No, does not have 34 22 50 31 21 Don't know/No answer 22 20 22 23 19

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Unweighted Weighted Total Respondents 1,251 Total Registered Voters 1,038 948 Registered Voters - Republicans 339 295 Registered Voters - Democrats 311 284 Registered Voters - independents 388 369 Republican Primary voters 419 361