cber-lied report on housing market...
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Page 1
CBER and Lied Institute Report
CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The charts and figures within the CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions
provide statistical information about the housing market in the Greater Las Vegas Area,
Clark County, and the United States. These figures reflect the data from numerous
sources and in-house calculations. Please contact the Lied Institute for Real Estate
Studies at (702) 895-3223 for questions about this report.
Housing Markets Conditions in 3rd Quarter 2012
Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD
Professor of Economics
Director, Center for Business
and Economic Research
Luis Arturo Lopez
Data Analyst, Lied Institute
for Real Estate Studies
Housing Units and Vacancies in the Greater Las Vegas Area, by Housing Type: 2012Q3
Type of Housing Unita
Estimated Units
in the Greater
Las Vegas Areab
Estimated Vacant
Units in the Greater
Las Vegas Area
Vacancy Rate
(%)
MLS Listings in
the Greater Las
Vegas Areac
Vacant MLS
Listingsc
MLS Vacancy
Rate (%)c
Single-family detached 477,387 44,584 9.3% 17,123 6,414 37.5%
Condominium 84,453 14,822 17.6% 2,105 990 47.0%
Townhouse 39,838 4,502 11.3% 1,226 499 40.7%
Apartment 169,331 20,307 12.0% - - -
Total 771,009 84,215 10.9% 20,454 7,903 38.6%
Note: Calculations of the estimated units and vacant units are based on data from Clark County, Nevada and meter counts from NV Energy.
aExcludes mobile homes and multiplex units. bUnit counts provided by Clark County, Nevada 2011 Population Estimates. cMultiple Listing Service data provided by Residential Resources.
Permits: A Future Market Indicator
Page 2
3rd Quarter,2011
Total: 1,063
4th Quarter,2011
Total: 1,103
1st Quarter,2012
Total: 1,669
2nd Quarter,2012
Total: 2,338
3rd Quarter,2012
Total: 1,882
Commercial Units 59 44 62 37 27
Multi-Family Units 103 171 539 324 243
Single-Family Units 901 888 1,068 1,977 1,612
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit1
3rd Quarter,2011
Total: 1,004
4th Quarter,2011
Total: 1,059
1st Quarter,2012
Total: 1,607
2ndQuarter,
2012Total: 2,301
3rd Quarter,2012
Total: 1,855
Res Building Permits 442 407 510 1,195 811
City of Las Vegas 184 291 224 442 294
City of North Las Vegas 159 116 94 270 152
Henderson 176 227 206 331 305
Boulder City 0 0 5 1 3
Mesquite 43 18 29 62 47
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority1
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Single-Family Housing Market: Details
Page 3
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012August2012
September2012
Available units (left axis) 17,884 17,346 16,930 16,944 17,047 16,775
Median list price (right axis) $132,945 $135,000 $135,000 $139,900 $139,990 $142,000
$126,000
$127,500
$129,000
$130,500
$132,000
$133,500
$135,000
$136,500
$138,000
$139,500
$141,000
$142,500
$144,000
16,500
16,700
16,900
17,100
17,300
17,500
17,700
17,900
18,100
MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units2
44.2% 47.0% 48.3% 49.0% 53.4% 53.1%
16.9% 17.3% 17.1% 16.0%
13.1% 14.1%
10.7% 10.1% 9.7% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3%
7.4% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1%
20.8% 18.9% 18.6% 18.7% 17.2% 16.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012
Percent of Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market2
0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Single-Family Housing Market: Details
Page 4
Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 3rd Quarter, 20122
89124
89165
89161
89005
89166
89115
89122
89015
89011
89052
89131
89141
89138
89119
89044
89129
89149
89179
89113
89012
89118
89110
89139 89123
89002
89031
89135
89117
89032
8910889030
89074
89121
89178
89148
89086
89087
89084
89085
89014
8908189130
89120
89147
89134
89183
89103
8915689128
89107 89101
89106
89102
89104 8914289146
89144
89145
89109
89143
89169
89004
Number of Sales Q3 2012
0 - 25
26 - 76
77 - 151
152 - 201
202 - 251
252 - 422
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Single-Family Housing/Condo & Townhouse
Market: Details*
Page 5
*All condominium and townhouse entities consist of 1-4 units.
**Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note: The figures display a graphical presentation of inventory movements. The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of listings at the
end of the month by the number of units sold during that same month. The absorption rate can be interpreted as the number of months needed to
deplete the inventory if no more units are listed and if the number of units sold remains constant. The new listings to sales ratio is calculated by
dividing the number of new listings in a month by the number of units sold during that same month.
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012August2012
September2012
Absorption rate 5.62 5.08 5.27 5.86 5.54 6.29
No. of units sold 3,185 3,413 3,214 2,890 3,076 2,666
New listings to sales 1.10 0.98 1.04 1.21 1.21 1.23
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Inventory Ratios and Number of Single-Family Residential Units Sold2**
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012August2012
September2012
Absorption rate 5.19 5.17 5.08 5.51 6.26 6.02
No. of units sold 739 721 731 682 612 632
New listings to sales 1.05 1.05 1.14 1.22 1.49 1.27
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Inventory Ratios and Number of Condo & Townhouse Units Sold2**
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Condo & Townhouse Market: Details
Page 6
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012August2012
September2012
Available units (left axis) 3,836 3,728 3,713 3,758 3,830 3,805
Median list price (right axis) $67,900 $69,000 $69,500 $69,900 $70,000 $70,000
$66,500
$67,000
$67,500
$68,000
$68,500
$69,000
$69,500
$70,000
$70,500
3,700
3,720
3,740
3,760
3,780
3,800
3,820
3,840
3,860
MLS Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Condo & Townhouse Units2
49.3% 51.3% 52.9% 56.0% 55.6% 55.7%
21.2% 18.4% 18.7% 19.1% 16.7% 16.1%
9.3% 7.6% 7.7% 8.7%
7.2% 7.9%
6.1% 6.5%
6.7% 4.1%
5.1% 7.1%
14.1% 16.1% 14.0% 12.2% 15.5% 13.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012
Percent Existing Condo & Townhouse Units Sold by Time on Market2
0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Apartment Market: Details
Page 7
Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4
ZIP CODE UNIT RATES AVERAGE RATES UNITS
Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed
Furn
ish
ed
Un
furn
ish
ed
Furn
ish
ed
Un
furn
ish
ed
Furn
ish
ed
Un
furn
ish
ed
Furn
ish
ed
Un
furn
ish
ed
Furn
ish
ed
Un
furn
ish
ed
Rent Vacancy Total Units Vacant Units
89002 . . . 701 . 665 . 951 . 1021 827 6.1% 354 22
89005 . . . 600 . 663 . . . 863 708 . 417 .
89011 . . . 781 . 854 . 952 . 996 901 10.1% 887 89
89012 . . . 757 . 800 . 925 . 1105 902 9.0% 1943 174
89014 . 593 . 675 . 756 . 821 . 974 803 8.7% 5626 492
89015 . . . 611 . 679 . 719 . 830 713 9.3% 2488 230
89030 . . . 528 . 556 . 635 . 735 616 10.4% 2349 244
89031 . . . . . . . 805 . 949 878 9.1% 1084 98
89032 . 658 . 688 . . . 800 . 904 790 8.6% 2217 191
89052 . . . 766 . 840 . 937 . 1131 910 9.5% 2666 254
89074 . . . 785 . . . 921 . 1127 905 9.5% 2758 262
89081 . . . 709 . 838 . 840 . 986 853 7.8% 1540 120
89084 . . . 726 . 775 . 915 . 1082 859 8.1% 580 47
89086 . . . 685 . 818 . 813 . 927 802 9.2% 1107 102
89101 543 455 598 511 . 606 799 643 . 695 554 12.0% 9793 1178
89102 . 531 . 568 . 607 . 710 . 787 638 10.2% 9019 917
89103 . 572 698 622 788 678 818 763 . 897 710 8.9% 6699 597
89104 422 413 450 501 . 595 . 645 . 749 565 11.4% 3176 363
89106 600 379 665 518 . 544 . 664 . 829 614 10.6% 4164 440
89107 . 462 . 536 . 598 . 649 . 826 623 9.2% 2728 252
89108 . 494 . 621 . 638 . 750 . 898 721 10.4% 8764 910
89109 499 498 625 583 . 568 . 704 . 695 631 19.2% 2778 534
89110 . . . 546 . 595 . 626 . 758 631 8.7% 3819 333
89113 . . . 797 . . . 963 . 1214 938 8.9% 901 80
89115 520 445 650 533 . 564 . 633 . 738 613 10.2% 5952 609
89117 . . . 754 . 858 . 866 . 1040 862 8.9% 7883 700
89118 . 515 . 710 . 712 . 879 . 995 810 8.5% 2736 233
89119 541 522 604 596 650 602 . 762 . 898 680 9.9% 13472 1330
89120 . 572 . 623 . 698 . 745 . 897 730 10.1% 2217 225
89121 . 491 809 573 . 620 . 688 . 796 660 9.5% 6864 655
89122 466 . 705 621 956 790 . 748 . 895 732 9.0% 4946 445
89123 . 596 . 734 . 1105 . 868 . 1083 854 9.0% 4402 395
89128 . . . 681 . . . 782 . 911 788 8.4% 2390 200
89129 . 658 . 663 . 915 795 829 . 1028 795 9.5% 1930 183
89130 . . . 608 . . . 710 . 900 725 6.6% 624 41
89131 . . . 685 . . . 793 . 1012 830 9.6% 347 33
89135 . . . 875 . . . 1112 . 1224 1059 8.1% 412 33
89138 . . . 1028 . 1098 . 1285 . 1415 1206 9.5% 1362 130
89139 . . . 846 . 935 . 1043 . 1185 1008 9.7% 1385 134
89141 . . . 830 . 935 . 1005 . 1210 995 9.7% 340 33
89142 . . . 574 . 599 . 686 . 804 672 11.3% 1646 185
89144 . . . 896 . . . 1054 . 1254 1101 9.0% 480 43
89145 . . . 752 . 737 . 918 . 1079 933 8.5% 1073 91
89146 . 410 . 631 . 592 . 773 . 963 759 8.2% 2261 185
89147 . . . 767 . 820 . 905 . 1012 896 8.4% 3130 263
89148 . . . 862 . 996 . 990 . 1069 964 9.1% 1839 167
89149 . . . 749 . 976 . 999 . 885 885 9.8% 1842 181
89156 . . . 571 . . . 688 . 0 662 11.0% 999 110
89166 . . . 754 . 860 . 982 . 0 905 8.9% 144 13
89169 596 465 673 551 . 649 . 701 . 0 625 9.7% 9151 889
89178 . . . 825 . 1060 . 1060 . 0 981 9.1% 539 49
89183 . . . 775 . 875 . 884 . 0 888 8.0% 3306 263
METRO LV 532 506 655 650 828 683 806 799 . 942 747 9.5% 161529 15361
" . " Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes.
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Apartment Market: Details
Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4
Page 8
89124
89165
89161
89005
89166
89115
89122
89015
89011
89052
89131
89141
89138
89119
89044
89129
89149
89179
89113
89012
89118
89110
89139 89123
89002
89031
89135
89117
89032
8910889030
89074
89121
89178
89148
89086
89087
89084
89085
89014
8908189130
89120
89147
89134
89183
89103
8915689128
89107 89101
89106
89102
89104 8914289146
89144
89145
89109
89143
89169
89004
Vacancy Q3 2012
Data suppressed
0.01 - 9.00
9.01 - 10.00
10.01 - 11.00
11.01 - 12.00
12.01 - 13.00
13.01 - 20.00
89124
89165
89161
89005
89166
89115
89122
89015
89011
89052
89131
89141
89138
89119
89044
89129
89149
89179
89113
89012
89118
89110
89139 89123
89002
89031
89135
89117
89032
8910889030
89074
89121
89178
89148
89086
89087
89084
89085
89014
8908189130
89120
89147
89134
89183
89103
8915689128
89107 89101
89106
89102
89104 8914289146
89144
89145
89109
89143
89169
89004
Rent Q3 2012
Data suppressed
1 - 650
651 - 750
751 - 850
851 - 950
951 - 1210
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Local Population and Unemployment Indicators
Page 9
3rdQuarter,
2010
4thQuarter,
2010
1stQuarter,
2011
2ndQuarter,
2011
3rdQuarter,
2011
4thQuarter,
2011
1stQuarter,
2012
2ndQuarter,
2012
3rdQuarter,
2012
Quarterly 14,604 12,783 14,257 14,645 16,450 13,882 16,057 16,450 17,612
Year-to-Date 38,365 51,148 14,257 28,902 45,352 59,234 16,057 32,507 50,119
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses4
2ndQuarter,
2011
3rdQuarter,
2011
4thQuarter,
2011
1stQuarter,
2012
2ndQuarter,
2012
3rdQuarter,
2012
Percent from California 31.5% 30.3% 30.6% 31.9% 31.8% 31.5%
Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 14.3% 14.4% 16.0% 15.1% 16.0% 15.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories4
Unemployment5
Las Vegas
Q3 2011 13.9%
Q4 2011 13.5%
Q1 2012 12.8%
Q2 2012 12.2%
Q3 2012 11.9%
United States
Q3 2011 9.1%
Q4 2011 8.7%
Q1 2012 8.3%
Q2 2012 8.2%
Q3 2012 8.1%
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Housing Market: Regional Comparisons
Page 10
3rd Quarter,2011
4th Quarter,2011
1st Quarter,2012
2nd Quarter,2012
3rd Quarter,2012
Las Vegas, NV 94.38 90.81 90.44 93.11 95.55
Phoenix, AZ 99.38 100.20 105.70 112.79 117.87
San Diego, CA 152.39 151.27 151.33 153.54 155.88
Los Angeles, CA 166.87 162.98 162.19 166.37 170.55
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Case Shiller® Index in Selected Western Cities6
3rd Quarter,2011
4th Quarter,2011
1st Quarter,2012
2nd Quarter,2012
3rd Quarter,2012
Las Vegas, NV -2.32% -3.78% -0.40% 2.95% 2.62%
Phoenix, AZ -1.93% 0.82% 5.49% 6.70% 4.50%
San Diego, CA -1.78% -0.74% 0.04% 1.46% 1.52%
Los Angeles, CA -1.79% -2.33% -0.48% 2.58% 2.51%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%Quarterly Change of Case Shiller® Index6
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
National Housing Market Conditions7
Page 11
Latest
quarter
Previous
quarter
Same quarter
previous year
% change from
previous quarter
% change
from last year
HOUSING PRODUCTION
Permits 834 756 629 10.37 32.52
Starts 786 736 614 6.84 28.01
Under construction 497 475 416 4.78 19.46
Completions 679 630 617 7.67 9.99
Manufactured (mobile) home shipments 53 55 51 -2.44 3.90
HOUSING MARKET
New homes sold 377 362 298 3.96 26.26
New homes for sale 144 143 164 0.70 -11.99
Month's supply of new homes 5 5 7 -4.17 -29.59
Existing homes sold 4683 4537 4247 3.23 10.28
Existing homes for sale 2373 2447 3023 -3.00 -21.50
Month's supply of existing homes 6 6 9 -5.67 -28.52
Median new home price 242900 238700 223500 1.76 8.68
Average new home price 287900 282700 263000 1.84 9.47
Constant house quality new home price 29200 282700 276200 -89.67 -89.43
Median existing home price 185533 180933 169233 2.54 9.63
Average existing home price 233767 229833 217567 1.71 7.45
Composite housing affordability index 189 187 182 0.92 4.03
Fixed-rate housing affordability index 187 184 180 1.45 4.20
Apartments completed 26600 15800 13000 68.35 104.62
Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months 67 60 51 11.67 31.37
Median asking rent 1032 1065 1037 -3.10 -0.48
Manufactured (mobile) home placements 48 48 47 -0.69 1.41
Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) 63000 61300 61200 2.77 2.94
Builders housing market index 37.3 27.0 14.7 38.27 154.55
Builders current sales activity 38.7 28.7 14.7 34.88 163.64
Builders future sales expectations 45.7 32.7 19.0 39.80 140.35
Builders prospective buyer traffic 29.3 21.3 12.0 37.50 144.44
HOUSING FINANCE
Conventional fixed-rate 30 year 3.54 3.80 4.31 -6.76 -17.87
Conventional ARMs 2.65 2.76 2.91 -3.86 -8.92
Conventional fixed-rate 15 year 2.83 3.04 3.49 -6.91 -18.83
FHA applications received 167748 156463 129034 7.21 30.00
FHA total endorsements 115423 110165 94662 4.77 21.93
FHA purchase endorsements 66005 64537 70245 2.27 -6.04
VA guaranties 48933 48860 32624 0.15 49.99
PMI certificates 40232 33392 25034 20.48 60.71
HOUSING INVESTMENT
GDP (in billions of dollars) 15776 15586 15163 1.22 4.04
Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) 388 373 336 4.08 15.41
RFI percent of GDP 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.82 10.93
HOUSING INVENTORY
All housing units 132839 132718 132353 0.09 0.37
Occupied units 114695 114200 113548 0.43 1.01
Owner occupied 75076 74832 75251 0.33 -0.23
Rental vacancy rate 8.6 8.6 9.8 0.00 -12.24
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Housing Market: Case-Shiller® Home Price Index
Sources: 1Local building permit-issuing agencies and State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 2Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes
sold by local builders. 3CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions–RealQuest data base on new and existing recorded home
sales. 4Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles. 5The Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices: Home Price Index Levels - Seasonally Adjusted, April 2012 (http://www.standardpoors.com). 7U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st Quarter, 2012 (http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/ushmc/ushmc.html).
Note: As of the 1st Quarter, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect
only single-family housing.
©Copyright 2012 Report on Housing-Market Conditions
Readers may reproduce the publication’s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for
Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Page 12
U.S. (10-City Composite)
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Ind
ex:
Jan
uar
y 2
00
0 =
10
0
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index: January 1987 to September 2012
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices http://www.standardandpoors.com/
Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas long-run
'equilibrium' trend based
on Jan. 1987 to Sept.
2000
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas