Slide 1

Catching up, innovation and future prospects Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG/UTL) Presentation to the 2004 Globelics PhD School Slide 2 Presentation partially based on: J. Fagerberg and M. Godinho, Innovation and Catching Up, chapter in Jan Fagerberg, Richard R. Nelson and David Mowery (eds.) (2004), The New Oxford Handbook of Innovation, OUP. Slide 3 1. Catching Up 2. Accounting for growth and catching up 3. Learning and Innovation 4. Future prospects for catching up 5. China Slide 4 Part 1 Catching Up Slide 5 Analysis of catching up not the same as Analysis of economic convergence Slide 6 Economic convergence literature: based on the prediction of conventional economic theory: diminishing returns to capital in advanced economies plus mobility of resources would bring poor economies closer to the richer ones However convergence has hardly been noticed on a global level in recent decades If anything over the last 200 years: divergence (GDPpc from 1:10 to 1:400) Results dependent on methods and indicators used E.g.Sala-i-Martin (2002) using country-weighted convergence measures concludes that 1990s witnessed some degree of global convergence (China effect), but divergence happened when taking into account worldwide distribution of income (again China effect) Slide 7 Catching up Literature Focus on specific cases: countries particularly successful in closing the gap in a relatively short span of time Focus on: - Historical conditions - Institutional arrangements - Innovation, technology and learning Old Institutionalism (Veblen...) Economic History (Gershenkron) Slide 8 Catching up 1950-2000 Slide 9 1960 GDPpc 1999 GDPpc 1 QuartileUS (West) Germany UK France Finland Italy 11.3 10.1 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.9 US Japan Singapore France Hong Kong Ireland 28.1 21.0 20.7 20.1 19.9 19.7 2 QuartileArgentina Chile Ireland Japan Spain Mexico 5.6 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.4 2.2 UK Finland (Unified) Germany Italy Taiwan Spain 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.2 16.6 14.6 3 QuartileGreece Hong Kong Portugal Brazil Singapore Malaysia 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 1.5 Portugal South Korea Greece Chile Argentina Malaysia 13.5 13.2 11.5 10.0 8.7 7.7 4 QuartileTaiwan Philippines South Korea India China 1.5 1.1 0,8 0.7 Mexico Brazil China Philippines India 6.9 5.4 3.3 2.3 1.8 23 countries 1960-1999 Slide 10 Slide 11 Part 2 Accounting for growth and catching up Slide 12 Factors behind successful catching up Accumulation Structural Change Institutional Change Slide 13 Accumulation and learning Structural Change Institutional change Investment in capital goods and in infrastructure Labour force Investment in education and training R&D, reverse engineering... Adjust sectoral composition of the economy towards sectors of high demand growth and technologically more progressive Clustering Firm demography, size distribution... Create new (lacking) institutions or redesign existing ones Slide 14 Accumulation and learning Structural Change Institutional change Investment in capital goods and in infrastructure Labour force Investment in education and training R&D, reverse engineering... Adjust sectoral composition of the economy towards sectors of high demand growth and technologically more progressive Clustering Firm demography, size distribution... Create new (lacking) institutions or redesign existing ones Where is innovation?? Next: focus just on a small part of the previous table Investment in education and training R&D, reverse engineering Slide 15 Part 3 Learning and Innovation Slide 16 FDI Stock / GDP Slide 17 Learning: the relevance of connecting to external sources Exports Imports FDI Licensing Subcontracting Example of Korea and Taiwan (Hobday, 2000) OEM Original Equipment Manufacturing ODM Original Design and Manufacturing OBD Own Branding and Design Slide 18 Education Level 3 20-24 years old Source: UNESCO Slide 19 GERD/GDP Slide 20 US Patents per million inhabitants in the country of origin Slide 21 Part 4 Prospects for catching up Slide 22 Questions for the future Global convergence or divergence? Will there be new countries catching up over the next decade(s)? What are the factors that will account most for rapid catching up? And what will hinder most the catching up opportunities? Slide 23 Part 5. China 5.1. Opening up 5.2. Growth and accumulation 5.3. Threats Slide 24 5.1. Opening up to external relations 1978: policy shift SEZs: Shenzen, Zuhai Inward investment Growth in trade Slide 25 Cumulative FDI 1978-2002 Total 447 b US$ HK 45,7% US 8,9% Japan 8,1% Taiwan 7,4% Virgins Is. 5,4% Singapure 4,8% S. Korea 3,4% UK 2,4% Germany 1,8% Macau 1,1% Netherlands 1,0% Caiman Is. 0,9% Canada 0,8% Malaysia 0,6% Others 6,6% FDI/GFCF 2002 4,6% 1990s > 10% Slide 26 External trade, 10 6 USD Slide 27 EXPORTS 2001: 23% GDP FDI exports: 56% Share in international market 1980 1,0% 1990 1,9% 2001 4,3% 4th world exporter High-tech exports: 19% IMPORTS: effects on world markets Slide 28 5.2. Economic Growth and accumulation GDP growth 91-96: 11,6% 97-02: 7,8% Germany, Japan, US Slide 29 CPI Slide 30 Accumulation Investment rate 2002 44% Education: > 6 y.o., 2002 35% Primary education 38% Basic 13% Secondary education 5% Third level R&D, Scientific publications Slide 31 GERD/GDP (%) Slide 32 5.3. Threats Big train moving at high speed What will make it get out of the tracks? Slide 33 Threats (1): Regional imbalances Coast 14% area 40% population 70% wealth > 90% FDI GDPpc 1:12 Demand for consumer goods in urban areas: from 19% in 1985 to 58% in 2002 Slide 34 Threats (2): Financial risks Overborrowing Public sector enterprises But External Reserves: US$ 400b Slide 35 Threats (3): Political tensions Taiwan Tibet Hong Kong (1)+ (2) + (3) But satisfaction with income growth Slide 36 END