catapulse report series net zero...the plug-in hybrid mitsubishi outlander has the largest fleet in...
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NET ZEROCatapulse Report Series
December 2020
ABOUT CSA CATAPULT
Compound Semiconductor Applications (CSA) Catapult is focused on bringing compound
semiconductor applications to life in three key areas: the road to Net Zero, future
telecoms and intelligent sensing.
CSA Catapult is a Not for Profit organisation headquartered in South Wales. It is focused
on three technology areas: Power Electronics, RF & Microwave and Photonics. As well as
the three technology areas, CSA Catapult is also working in Advanced Packaging for these
high-power innovations.
The next wave of emerging applications will have an enormous impact on our lives.
Compound semiconductors will enable a host of new and exciting applications in the
electrification of transport, clean energy, defence and security and digital
communications markets.
CSA Catapult exists to help the UK compound semiconductor industry grow and
collaborates across the UK and internationally.
About Compound Semiconductors
Semiconductors are at the heart of almost all modern electronic devices. Silicon
semiconductors have widespread commercial applications, but this technology has its
limits.
Compound semiconductors combine two or more elements to create capabilities that
cannot be achieved with conventional silicon devices, delivering performance
improvements in power, speed and signal quality. This makes them ideal to use in areas
such as energy efficiency, electrified and autonomous vehicles, mobile applications, new
smart-sensing devices for the Internet of Things and 5G applications.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report
The UK is the first major economy that has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas
emissions drastically in the coming decades. In June 2019, based on the recommendation
from the Committee on Climate Change, the UK parliament passed a law that requires the
government to reduce the UK’s net emission of greenhouse gases by 100% relative to 1990
levels by 2050.
What is Net Zero?
Lately Net Zero has become the buzzword of choice when referring to the environment. But
what does it actually mean? In laymen’s terms, Net Zero means achieving a balance between
the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced and the amount removed from the
atmosphere.
The two main ways to achieving Net Zero are reducing emissions from the current sources
and eliminating emissions from the atmosphere. The former can be achieved by improving
the efficiency of power generation systems, employing renewable technologies, and moving
to ultra-low emission vehicles etc. In contrast, the latter can be tackled by afforestation and
technologies such as carbon capture.
UK’s current emissions
The main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the UK are energy supply,
transportation, industrial/business activities and residential (heating). The total carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions in the UK have actually declined over the past three decades, which
can be attributed to the sharp reduction in emissions from the power generation sector due
to the adoption of renewable technologies such as wind and solar power generation systems.
However, the emissions from transportation, agricultural, industrial, and residential sectors
have remained mostly unchanged.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – Net Zero 1
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 2
Source: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government
Figure 3(a): Emissions in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent from different sectors, and (b) Emissions from different
sectors as a % of total emissions
The transport sector is the most significant source of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK,
contributing to 28% of the total emissions of the nation. These emissions come from freights,
home deliveries, commuting, domestic aviation and shipping.
(Source: UK Government)
Figure 4: Road transport is the main contributor to emissions from the transport sector at 91%; within the road
transport, passenger cars are the primary source of emissions at 61% of total road transport emissions
UK’s Net Zero targets
The graph in Figure 5 shows the current emissions and the target emissions by 2050 with Net
Zero policies in place from an average household in the UK. The main sectors that will see a
significant decline in emissions are residential heating, transportation, and electricity
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 3
generation. The most drastic fall will be in the transport sector, it is estimated that an average
household produces 2376kg of CO2 every year by using different means of transportation, this
number is expected to be zero by 2050.
Figure 5: Current emissions vs emissions by 2050 from an average UK household
Net Zero and Compound Semiconductors
The four key areas where the Net Zero will have a focus are energy supply, industrial
operations, domestic/residential heating, and transport. Compound semiconductor
materials, owing to their superior efficiency, faster speeds, better thermal management and
reduced size and weight, can play a crucial role in the development of power electronic
systems for technologies that can help in reducing the emissions from the areas mentioned
above. A fact backed up by recent research report that CSA Catapult commissioned in
conjunction with Frost & Sullivan; Emerging Opportunities for Compound Semiconductor
Technology, to look at the role of compound semiconductors might play in the next five to
ten years.
Compound semiconductors will be fundamental in the development of renewable
technologies, for instance, Gallium Nitride (GaN) in the inverters for wind turbines and solar
power systems and micro-inverters etc. The power conversion and distribution systems for
photovoltaic converters and solar heating systems can also utilise the compound
semiconductor technology. The compound semiconductors, especially Silicon Carbide (SiC)
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 4
and GaN will play a crucial role in the electrification of the transport system and helping the
UK on the road to zero emissions for the transport sector.
The Road to Zero
The Road to Zero strategy aim is to bring the emissions from the transport sector to zero by
2050. The government aims to achieve this by replacing all cars and vans with zero-emission
vehicles by 2050. The strategy further includes that the sale of new petrol and diesel cars
will cease in 2030 as part of the Ten Point Plan set out by the PM for a Green Industrial
Revolution.
The UK government has recognised that the way to achieve this is by placing the UK at
the forefront of the design, development, and manufacturing of zero-emission vehicles.
And therefore, public investment in R&D worth 2.4% of GDP by 2027 was announced, which
is the biggest in the UK’s history. Other significant investments include £246 million in the
‘Faraday Battery Challenge’ to research and develop next-generation battery technology
and £400 million to help accelerate charging infrastructure deployment under the
‘Charging Infrastructure Investment Fund’.
Source: Go Ultra Low
Figure 6: The ULEV fleet is growing in the UK; there are over 20 models available currently. Tesla Model 3 was
the most registered new ULEV between July 2019 to June 2020, followed by BMW Series 3 and Nissan’s Leaf.
The Plug-In Hybrid Mitsubishi Outlander has the largest fleet in the UK with around 48,300 vehicles on the road
The role of compound semiconductors in the Road to Zero
The Road to Zero will require switching to electric vehicles (EV) which have no tailpipe
emissions. Compound semiconductors will play a crucial role in the development of the power
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 5
electronics needed to manage and optimise power transfer between the fuel cell and motor.
The key advantages of the compound semiconductors include the following:
Improved efficiency
The compound semiconductors, with the Wide Band Gap technology, have proven to be 90%
more efficient than the Si-based semiconductors. They reduce the losses that occur during
the flow of power from batteries to the motor, thus improving efficiency, and prolonging
battery life. The main compound semiconductor materials for the application in the EV
industry are GaN and SiC. The latter material, in particular, has shown superior efficiency and
faster-charging capabilities as witnessed in the Tesla Model 3, which utilises a SiC inverter.
Better thermal management
SiC generates significantly less heat as compared to Si-based systems at higher power
applications. Therefore, the cooling systems required are smaller and thus, reducing weight
and size, and ultimately, reducing the cost.
Increasing battery range
One of the primary considerations while making a purchase decision for an EV is the battery
range. With compound semiconductor reducing the weight and size of the vehicle, the battery
range is improved. The SiC inverters also support fast charging, thus reducing mileage anxiety.
Source: Tesla
Figure 7: Tesla Model S, a fully autonomous battery electric vehicle that produces zero tailgate emissions, has a
range of around 400 miles from a full charge
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 6
Reducing cost
Compound semiconductors have already proven that the cost associated with some of the
key components of an EV can be reduced. For instance, the cost associated with cooling
systems. It is also interesting to note that the running cost of an electric car is three to four
times cheaper than an equivalent petrol or diesel car of a similar size.
Vehicle to Vehicle communication/Intelligent mobility
Compound semiconductors will play an important role in the development of autonomous
and fully autonomous vehicles. Materials such as Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) and GaN are used
in the mmWave for the 5G network; it is reported that every car will have 5G integrated by
2022. Other materials such as GaN-on-SiC, GaN-on-Si and Silicon Germanium (SiGe) will be
crucial in the development of the wireless systems for vehicle-to-vehicle communication
technology. Thus, reducing traffic congestion, and hence reducing emissions, and making
journeys safer.
(a) (b) Source: Velodyne Lidar
Figure 8(a): ADAS, works with the use of sensors installed on the vehicle to sense the surroundings of a car,
collects data, detects and track potential dangers, and (b) Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) builds a 3D picture
of the space around a car, for the safety and autonomous operation of the vehicles
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 7
The economics of EV
Global EV and compound semiconductor market forecast
The global EV market is estimated to be worth between £1-2 trillion a year by 2030 and £3.6-
7.6 trillion a year by 2050. The compound semiconductor market was valued at £68.8 billion
in 2019 and is expected to grow to £122 billion by 2024 and £155 billion by 2027. It is
projected that the demand for compound semiconductors is going to increase for
microcontrollers, sensors, and memory chips for electric and continuously autonomous
vehicles.
Current UK market
As per the UK Government’s Annual Vehicle Licensing Statistics for the year 2019, there were
about 270,000 ULEVs in the UK, which was around 0.7% of the total vehicles on the road; 53%
of them were plug-in hybrids, and 39% were pure electric. In the past five years, registration
of BEVs has been growing strongly, with impressive growth of 616% between 2013 and 2018.
Source: EV-Volume.com, Statista
Figure 9: Quarterly sales volume of battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in the UK
from Q1 2014 to Q2 2020
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Q1
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Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
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'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
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'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Q1
'17
Q2
'17
Q3
'17
Q4
'17
Q1
'18
Q2
'18
Q3
'18
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'18
Q1
'19
Q2
'19
Q3
'19
*
Q4
'19
*
Q1
'20
Q2
'20
Un
its
sold
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 8
Affordability
The prices of Lithium-ion battery packs have fallen by 87% from 2010 to 2019. With the
application of compound semiconductor materials in the powertrains along with
standardised designs and simplified manufacturing operations, the cost of EVs is expected to
drop. According to the Energy Savings Trust, a conventional petrol/diesel car costs around
£13-16 per 100 miles, whereas an electric car costs around £4-6 for the same number of miles.
Manufacturing high-capacity batteries at scale in this country will further reduce both the
environmental footprint as well as the cost of producing zero-emission vehicles. To do this a
number of gigafactories will be required to make the estimated 140 GWh (gigawatt hour) of
batteries necessary to supplant ICE cars on the road by 2040.
The charging infrastructure
The complete electrification of the transport sector will require a rapid expansion of the
current EV charging infrastructure. The number of public EV charging devices have grown by
five times since 2015, with a growth rate of 363% in fast charging devices. There are over
31,000 public EV charge points in the UK as of 2020, around 25% of these are fast chargers
capable of charging at speeds greater than 22kW AC. The charging devices can be classified
based on the AC and DC technology, the former being the dominant technology, with over
80% of the share.
DC
Level 1 AC: < 11kW
Level 2 AC: 11-22kW
Level 3 AC: 22-43kW
DC fast: 50kW
DC rapid: 150 kW
DC ultrafast: ~350 kW
Table 1: The EV charging speeds
AC
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 9
Charging at home
Currently the most popular means of EV charging is at home because of the convenience of
charging overnight. However, it is limited to those with a private garage or driveways. To
strengthen the charging infrastructure, the government offers financial support for the
purchase and installation of charging devices under the Electric Vehicle Homecharge Scheme.
Source: Audi
Figure 10: Evidence suggests that charging at home is the most popular means of EV charging
On-Street Charging
On-street charging is an option for residents who do not have a private garage or driveway.
This requires the installation of columns/poles integrated with EV charge points. Such points
are already available in various parts of the country and to further grow the infrastructure,
local authorities are provided with financial support through schemes such as the On-street
Residential Chargepoint Scheme (ORCS). The government has also announced it will offer a
further £90M to support the rollout of larger, on-street charging solutions as part of the Ten
Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 10
Source: Ubitricity
Figure 11: On-street charging devices such as converted lamp posts, offer those that have an EV but no driveway
the opportunity to recharge their cars within the vicinity of their home or neighbourhood
Charging at the workplace
This means EV charging will be necessary for people who do not have off-street parking.
Businesses in the UK can benefit from the Workplace Charging Scheme, which offers financial
assistance for the installation of EV charge points at workplaces.
Smart charging
Smart charging will involve charging EVs during off-peak periods when the demand is low, for
example, overnight. The smart charging would also provide cheaper charging costs during off-
peak periods. The smart meters would be able to communicate with a third party to assess
the electricity demand and supply. This is where the Vehicle-to-Grid concept will become
important. This will involve charging an EV when the electricity system has spare capacity
and discharging the EV battery when requested and supplying power back to the grid.
New technology developments in EV charging
There is research into high power charging, up to 350kW, for bigger battery sizes. The wireless
power transfer has also gathered interest, and there are some static wireless EV chargers
already available in the market. The material of interest for wireless chargers is GaN because
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 11
of higher switching frequencies. There is also research into dynamic wireless charging, where
an EV would be able to charge while on the move.
Source: GRIDSERVE
Figure 12: While some conventional filling stations are already integrating EV chargers alongside diesel and
petrol pumps, someday there may be forecourts exclusively for charging EVs like the Gridserve one in Essex.
If you look at Gridserve’s first ‘Electric Forecourt’ that recently opened in Braintree, Essex this
is what the filling station of the future may become. It’s a charging hub for up to 36 vehicles
of all shapes and sizes, from Level 1 AC all the way up to Ultra-fast DC.
Electricity is generated from both the solar power canopies above the chargers, and a
network of hybrid solar farms, also operated by Gridserve 40 miles down the road. There is
also a 6 MWh battery onsite which helps to balance the local energy grid. Similar to some
Tesla superchargers sites in the US, there are shopping facilities and a coffee shop to break
up the time while your car is charging.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 12
Challenges on the Road to Zero
Increased electricity demand
It’s estimated that electricity demand will increase by 30% with the electrification of the
transport sector by 2050. It will be an enormous challenge for the government and the energy
sector to make sure that sufficient generation of power, storage and network capability is
available to meet the high demand. The energy system will have to be agile so that it can
respond to changes in demand.
The long development cycle of EVs
The technology development cycle for EVs is atypically four years. The industry needs to find
a way to reduce this cycle duration and respond quickly to integrate emerging technology.
Some of the ways to achieve this include standardisation of the components and a common
mechanical package with a standard connector system that can accommodate new
technology without the need for changing the whole package.
The charging infrastructure
The availability, affordability and reliability of the charging devices will be crucial to the
adoption of EVs. As per the government statistics in June 2020, there were 29 normal and
about five rapid public charging devices per 100,000 of the population in the UK; this number
will have to increase rapidly. In reaction to this requirement, the government has said it will
commit £1.3 billion to accelerate, among other things, the rollout of rapid charge points
across major A roads and motorways across England.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 13
Source: Jaguar Land Rover
Figure 12: Rapid charging along A roads and motorways will become commonplace thanks to investment from
government and private companies to meet the 2030 deadline to stop the sale of new ICE vehicles
Supply chain and international relations
China heavily dominates the supply chain of compound semiconductors currently. The supply
and cost of components can be affected by the international relationships of the key players
in the supply chain. The decline in the demand, and eventually obsoletion, of petrol and diesel
cars, will have an impact on oil prices, which has the potential to cause instability in world
politics. The use of crude oil is expected to fall as much as 40% by 2030 as countries move to
EVs and sources of renewable energy. Potentially disrupting the status quo that the Middle-
East and OPEC have had over the west for so many years. Once again China is at the forefront,
as both the world’s largest importer of oil and market for automobiles.
Skills development
The demand for engineers and technicians who can match the electric vehicle technology
needs is going to increase. Academia will play a crucial role in developing those skills in the
coming generation of engineers, technicians, and researchers. The automobile industry, on
the other hand, will have to instil the required skills in the current workforce through rigorous
training and development programmes. The industry will also need highly skilled people with
backgrounds in specialised fields, such as compound semiconductors. Immigration laws can
pose challenges to SMEs to bring in highly skilled labour outside of the UK due to minimum
salary requirements, increased paperwork and high costs associated with visa applications
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 14
etc., the immigration policies will have to be more encouraging through sponsorships
schemes and the new 70 point immigration scheme laid out by the Government.
Acceptance by society
The role of society is vital in achieving the targets of the Road to Zero; we will have to change
the way we have been using the transport system. Car ownership will have to change. The
ideal scenario for the future of transport would be the one where cars are shared more often,
public transport is the most popular means of commuting, people using bicycles for local
commuting and considering walking for commuting to short distances. These societal changes
would help in lowering the energy demands, reducing traffic congestions, the improved air
quality will result in better human health and hence increased productivity, the hospital
admission will be fewer, thus lowering the burden on the health system. Continuously
autonomous vehicles can save lives during accidents.
Society will play a crucial role in achieving the targets of net zero for the transport sector. We
will have to be considerate of the environment around us, the planet’s limited resources and
be respectful to the needs of others, for example, while utilising vehicle charging facilities.
The reluctance of the people in adopting EVs can be a challenge for the industry.
While plug-in grants will get some people behind the wheel of a car, perhaps the recent
introduction of green number plates that local government will use to recognise and reward
clean vehicle owners with perks being considered ranging from the ability to drive in bus lanes
to do their journeys quicker to free or heavily discounted car parking in convenient and
central locations.
Conclusion
The UK has pledged to bring the emissions from the transport sector to zero by replacing all
the petrol and diesel cars with zero-emission battery-electric vehicles by 2050. It can be
estimated that a reduction of around 100 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per year will be
possible with the electrification of the transport sector (based on current emission trends).
The success of the Road to Zero project will depend upon three key aspects, the technological
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 15
advancements in the EVs, robust charging infrastructure and the role of society in adopting
the new transport system.
The complete electrification of the transport sector will require the automobile industry to
work towards improving the performance of the EVs and making them affordable to the
general public. The main objectives in terms of EV technology are improving the efficiency of
the powertrains, increasing the battery capacity and range, and reducing the weight. The EV
charging devices will also require research and development in terms of improving the
charging speeds.
Compound semiconductors will play a crucial role in the development of EV technology; they
find their application in the powertrains and power electronics required in the EVs. They have
significantly higher efficiencies as compared to Si-based modules, they generate less heat and
hence need smaller cooling systems, thus reducing the weight. They are also being exploited
for wireless charging devices for EVs.
The EV industry is set for massive growth in the coming decades due to the Road to Zero
legislation; this presents a huge opportunity for compound semiconductor technology to be
exploited. Another important market for compound semiconductors is autonomous electric
vehicles, where the technology will be used for the sensors required for autonomous
operation and vehicle-to-vehicle communication.
Naturally, the CSA Catapult views the road to net zero as an essential part of its own
journey. It is part of ESCAPE, a consortium building a unique supply chain for SiC-
based power electronics. Led by McLaren Applied, the £20M project involving 12 UK
partners is developing components and systems for electric vehicles.
A new £30M project involving BMW called FutureBEV will leverage these capabilities to
deliver the components needed for volume production. The demonstrators being developed
within the project could be incorporated into new battery electric vehicles as soon as 2024.
CSA Catapult Pulse Report – The road to Net Zero 16
Our power electronics laboratory, headed by Dr Ingo Lüdtke is one of the country’s most
advanced and comprehensive modelling, characterisation, integration and validation facilities
for power electronics innovation.
Using the Catapult’s MCIV (modelling, characterisation, integration and validation)
framework, we can transform a raw concept into a market-ready product, in a process known
as Virtual Product Development (VPD). The VPD capabilities of CSA Catapult have been
configured to support the flow of commercial, market-or customer-oriented development
projects.
Tel: 01633 373121
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @CSACatapult
Website: www.csa.catapult.org.uk
The CSA Catapult is a member of CS-Connected – the South Wales compound semiconductor cluster
www.csconnected.com