catalogue severe weather netherlands 1950- today and era-40 geert groen ecmwf june 2005
TRANSCRIPT
Catalogue Severe Weather Catalogue Severe Weather Netherlands 1950- todayNetherlands 1950- today
and ERA-40and ERA-40
Geert GroenGeert Groen
ECMWF June 2005ECMWF June 2005
Who does not want to learn from the past….Who does not want to learn from the past….
GALE
Februari 1, 1953: Februari 1, 1953:
1836 people killed, 187000 cattle drowned.1836 people killed, 187000 cattle drowned.August 25, 1972 and Nov 6, 1990:Fogaccidents 23 dead, 42 injured
FOG
STORMTornado:Tornado:
August 23, 1950, Veluwe, 35900 cm treesAugust 23, 1950, Veluwe, 35900 cm trees
June 25, 1967, Chaam and Tricht, 11 deadJune 25, 1967, Chaam and Tricht, 11 dead
Aug 11, 1972, Ameland, campers, 4 deadAug 11, 1972, Ameland, campers, 4 dead
Oct 6, 1981, airplane F28 Moerdijk 17 deadOct 6, 1981, airplane F28 Moerdijk 17 dead
Aug 26, 1986, Slochteren and AppingedamAug 26, 1986, Slochteren and Appingedam
Aug 5, 1993, Burgum (Gr), campingAug 5, 1993, Burgum (Gr), campingWinterproblems
Snow and Freezing precipitation:Snow and Freezing precipitation:
1958, 1963, 1969, 1978, 1981, 2002,….1958, 1963, 1969, 1978, 1981, 2002,….
My presentation:My presentation:BackgroundBackgroundObjectivesObjectivesExamplesExamplesExperience with ERA40Experience with ERA40PlansPlans
Background for this project: Background for this project:
Severe Weather leads to Weather Alarm, 3-5 Severe Weather leads to Weather Alarm, 3-5 cases/year...slow growing experiencecases/year...slow growing experience
Solution: look back in history….the catalogueSolution: look back in history….the catalogue
Disaster 1953, excellent reanalysis ECMWF/NCEPDisaster 1953, excellent reanalysis ECMWF/NCEP
Inspired to use ERA-40, 4D-reanalysis up to 6 days Inspired to use ERA-40, 4D-reanalysis up to 6 days before event before event
Objectives:Objectives:
Increasing knowledge Increasing knowledge
on a synoptic scale on a synoptic scale
of severe weatherof severe weather
Open all information (incl. ERA)Open all information (incl. ERA) Increase (my) experienceIncrease (my) experience Improve modelImprove model Operational knowledgeOperational knowledge Simulate severe weather eventsSimulate severe weather events Stimulate (E-)learningStimulate (E-)learning
Index exampleIndex example
Case-link exampleCase-link example
Typical chart-displayTypical chart-display
Experiences sofar:Experiences sofar:
PositivePositive Exploring ERA and historical material good Exploring ERA and historical material good
combinationcombination Inspired use of operational knowledgeInspired use of operational knowledge ERA: good pressure reconstructionERA: good pressure reconstruction ERA: thetaw mirror of fronts/troughsERA: thetaw mirror of fronts/troughs ERA: PV315K illustrativeERA: PV315K illustrative In general: ERA OK for large-scaleIn general: ERA OK for large-scale
Experiences sofar:Experiences sofar:
NegativeNegative ERA-resolution 6 hrs, 1.5 deg for ERA-resolution 6 hrs, 1.5 deg for
smaller scale eventssmaller scale events Windspeed 1-3 Bft to lowWindspeed 1-3 Bft to low No profiles and precipitationNo profiles and precipitation
Plans and wishes…….Plans and wishes…….
More cases (upto 10 cases/year?)More cases (upto 10 cases/year?) Good historical material Good historical material
Investigating by keyparametersInvestigating by keyparameters E-learning modulesE-learning modules Weather-simulatorWeather-simulator
Use of ECMWF and HIRLAM-forecastUse of ECMWF and HIRLAM-forecast Reanalysis of cases in HIRLAMReanalysis of cases in HIRLAM
Suggestions, questions and remarks?Suggestions, questions and remarks? Demonstration part of the test-Demonstration part of the test-
catalogue (7 dec 1959)catalogue (7 dec 1959)